Tropical Storm CHRIS

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TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012
500 AM AST WED JUN 20 2012
 
CHRIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A COMMA-SHAPED BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS THAT
IS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION.  GIVEN THAT THE SATELLITE-OBSERVED STRUCTURE OF THE
STORM HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
ALSO UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.  CHRIS WILL BE MOVING OVER RELATIVELY COOL
WATERS AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BY 36 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE SO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND THAT TIME. 
SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH
ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS ACCELERATED TO 100/15.  THE CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...AND A
CLOSED LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH. 
CHRIS SHOULD ACCELERATE EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW TODAY...AND AFTERWARDS THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO CURVE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 38.2N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 38.3N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 39.6N  45.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 42.0N  42.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  22/0600Z 44.0N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/0600Z 44.0N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  24/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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