‹ Analysis & Projections

International Energy Outlook 2011

Release Date: September 19, 2011   |  Next Scheduled Release Date: April 2013   |  Report Number: DOE/EIA-0484(2011)

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Table 8. World coal production by region, 2008-2035 (million short tons)
Region 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Average annual growth 2008-2035 (percent)
OECD North America 1,260 1,189 1,149 1,206 1,318 1,367 1,443 0.5%
United States 1,172 1,102 1,061 1,114 1,222 1,266 1,331 0.5%
Canada 75 77 77 80 84 87 95 0.9%
Mexico 13 10 11 12 12 13 18 1.0%
OECD Europe 651 613 564 560 537 519 513 -0.9%
OECD Asia 447 479 522 526 573 647 714 1.7%
Japan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA
South Korea 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 -0.3%
Australia/New Zealand 444 476 519 524 570 645 711 1.8%
Total OECD 2,358 2,281 2,236 2,291 2,428 2,534 2,670 0.5%
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 683 621 633 621 611 620 649 -0.2%
Russia 336 328 341 339 339 354 385 0.5%
Other 347 293 292 281 271 266 264 -1.0%
Non-OECD Asia 4,081 4,600 4,965 5,244 5,847 6,457 6,966 2.0%
China 3,086 3,556 3,871 4,103 4,618 5,091 5,431 2.1%
India 568 556 577 620 694 783 885 1.7%
Other non-OECD Asia 426 488 518 521 535 583 650 1.6%
Middle East 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 1.7%
Africa 283 291 346 366 387 417 464 1.8%
Central and South America 97 89 127 158 177 190 206 2.8%
Brazil 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 -0.5%
Other Central and South America 90 83 121 152 171 184 200 3.0%
Total Non-OECD 5,147 5,604 6,074 6,391 7,023 7,686 8,287 1.8%
Total World 7,505 7,886 8,310 8,682 9,451 10,219 10,958 1.4%

Sources: 2008: EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of March 2011), website www.eia.gov/ies. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2011) and IEO2011 National Energy Modeling System, run IEO2011.D050311A.
Note: With the exception of North America, non-seaborne coal trade is not represented in EIA's forecast scenarios. As a result, the projected levels of production assume that net non-seaborne coal trade will balance out across the IEO2011 regions. Currently, a significant amount of non-seaborne coal trade takes place in Eurasia, represented by exports of steam coal from Kazikhstan to Russia and exports of coking coal from Russia to Ukraine.

 

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