Report
Contents
Report#:SR/OIAF/99-02
Preface
Executive Summary
Introduction
Timing
of U.S. Carbon Reductions
Model
Results - (Appendix A)
Completed
Report in
PDF Format ( 353 KB)
Related Reports
Impacts
of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets & Economic Activity
Analysis
of the Climate Change Technology Initiative
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Analysis of the Impacts of an Early Start for
Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol
Preface
The analysis in this report was undertaken at the request of the Committee
on Science of the U.S. House of Representatives, subsequent to the report
Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity,
published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in October 1998.
In its request, the Committee asked EIA to evaluate an earlier start date
than 2005, which was the first year that the price signal was passed to
consumers in your study of the Kyoto Protocol, as noted in the letter
in Appendix B.
In its 1998 study, EIA analyzed the impacts of the Kyoto Protocol, assuming
that a price was imposed on the consumption of fossil fuels relative to
their carbon content in order to reduce projected carbon emissions in the
United States to the level specified in the Kyoto Protocol for the period
2008 through 2012. The carbon price was phased in beginning in 2005, in
order to allow energy markets time for adjustment before 2008. The present
study assumes that the United States reaches the same level of carbon emissions
in the period 2008 through 2012 but begins a gradual phase-in of the carbon
price in 2000, in order to analyze whether a longer, more gradual adjustment
would be beneficial. The projections in this report were produced using
the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), an energy-economy model of
U.S. energy markets designed, developed, and maintained by EIA, which is
used each year to provide the projections in EIAs Annual Energy Outlook.
The detailed energy market results are provided in Appendix
A.
The legislation that established EIA in 1977 vested the organization with
an element of statutory independence. EIA does not take position on policy
questions. It is the responsibility of EIA to provide timely, high quality
information and to perform objective, credible analyses in support of the
deliberations of both public and private decisionmakers. This report does
not purport to represent the official position of the U.S. Department of
Energy or the Administration.
This report was prepared by the staff of the Office of Integrated Analysis
and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration. General questions
concerning the report may be directed to Mary J. Hutzler
(202/586-2222, mhutzler@eia.doe.gov), Director of the Office of Integrated
Analysis and Forecasting; Susan H. Holte (202/586-4838, sholte@eia.doe.gov),
Director of the Demand and Integration Division; James M. Kendell (202/586-9646,
jkendell@eia.doe.gov), Director of the Oil and Gas Division; Scott B. Sitzer
(202/586-2308, ssitzer@eia.doe.gov), Director of the Coal and Electric
Power Division; and Andy S. Kydes (202/586-2222, akydes@eia.doe.gov), Senior
Modeling Analyst. Specific questions about the report may be directed to
the following analysts:
Within its Independent Expert Review Program, EIA arranged for leading
experts in the field of energy and economic analysis to review an earlier
version of this report. The assistance of the following reviewers is gratefully
acknowledged: Joseph Boyer, Yale University; William Hogan, Harvard University;
Michael Toman, Resources for the Future; and John Weyant, Stanford University
Energy Modeling Forum.
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