Released: September 11, 2012

Short-term forecasts of natural gas supply, demand, and price projections.

Released: August 2, 2012

This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results.

Released: September 19, 2011

International natural gas projections through 2035

Released: April 26, 2011

The AEO Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections.

Released: April 26, 2011

Natural gas projections to 2035.

Released: February 2, 2011

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: Saudi Arabia - United States Energy Consultations; Washington, DC

Released: December 10, 2010

Presented by: Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator, to: The Energy Council, Global Energy and Environmental Issues Conference; Santa Fe, NM

Released: December 2, 2010

Presented by: Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator, to: U.S. - Canada Energy Consultative Mechanism; Washington, DC

Released: October 18, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: New York Energy Forum; New York, NY

Released: October 13, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference; Washington, DC

Released: October 11, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: American Gas Association Executive Conference; Chicago, IL

Released: August 23, 2010

Presented by: Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator, to: Global Shale Gas Initiative Conference; Washington, DC

Released: June 1, 2010

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Released: May 11, 2010

Production from low-permeability reservoirs, including shale gas and tight gas, has become a major source of domestic natural gas supply. In 2008, low-permeability reservoirs accounted for about 40 percent of natural gas production and about 35 percent of natural gas consumption in the United States. Permeability is a measure of the rate at which liquids and gases can move through rock. Low-permeability natural gas reservoirs encompass the shale, sandstone, and carbonate formations whose natural permeability is roughly 0.1 millidarcies or below. (Permeability is measured in darcies.)

Released: May 11, 2010

Environmental and energy security concerns related to petroleum use for transportation fuels, together with recent growth in U.S. proved reserves and technically recoverable natural gas resources, including shale gas, have sparked interest in policy proposals aimed at stimulating increased use of natural gas as a vehicle fuel, particularly for heavy trucks.

Released: May 11, 2010

Over the 1995-2005 period, crude oil prices and U.S. natural gas prices tended to move together, which supported the conclusion that the markets for the two commodities were connected. Figure 26 illustrates the fairly stable ratio over that period between the price of low-sulfur light crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub on an energy-equivalent basis.

Released: April 1, 2010

EIA introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

Released: June 1, 2009

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Released: March 31, 2009

The U.S. offshore is estimated to contain substantial resources of both crude oil and natural gas, but until recently some of the areas of the lower 48 OCS have been under leasing moratoria. The Presidential ban on offshore drilling in portions of the lower 48 OCS was lifted in July 2008, and the Congressional ban was allowed to expire in September 2008, removing regulatory obstacles to development of the Atlantic and Pacific OCS.

Released: March 31, 2009

If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the AEO2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

Released: March 31, 2009

At least three alternatives have been proposed over the years for bringing sizable volumes of natural gas from Alaskas remote North Slope to market in the lower 48 States: a pipeline interconnecting with the existing pipeline system in central Alberta, Canada; a GTL plant on the North Slope; and a large LNG export facility at Valdez, Alaska. NEMS explicitly models the pipeline and GTL options [63]. The what if LNG option is not modeled in NEMS.

Released: March 13, 2009

From 1982 through 2008, Congress annually enacted appropriations riders prohibiting the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior from conducting activities related to leasing, exploration, and production of oil and natural gas on much of the Federal OCS. Further, a separate executive ban (originally put in place in 1990 by President George H.W. Bush and later extended by President William J. Clinton through 2012) also prohibited leasing on the OCS, with the exception of the Western Gulf of Mexico, portions of the Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Alaska. In combination, those actions prohibited drilling along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and in portions of the central Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006 (Public Law 109-432) imposed yet a third ban on drilling through 2022 on tracts in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico that are within 125 miles of Florida, east of a dividing line known as the Military Mission Line, and in the Central Gulf of Mexico within 100 miles of Florida.

Released: September 24, 2008

From the late 1970s through 2002, steel, cement, and concrete prices followed a general downward trend. Since then, however, iron and steel prices have increased by 8 percent in 2003, 10 percent in 2004, and 31 percent in 2005. Although iron and steel prices declined in 2006, early data for 2007 show another increase. Cement and concrete prices, as well as the composite cost index for all construction commodities, have shown similar trends but with smaller increases in 2004 and 2005.

Released: June 26, 2008

U.S. imports of LNG in 2007 were more than triple the 2000 total, and they are expected to grow in the long term as North Americas conventional natural gas production declines. With U.S. dependence on LNG imports increasing, competitive forces in the international markets for natural gas in general and LNG in particular will play a larger role in shaping the U.S. market for LNG. Key factors currently shaping the future of the global LNG market include the evolution of project economics, worldwide demand for natural gas, government policies that affect the development and use of natural resources in countries with LNG facilities, and changes in seasonal patterns of LNG trade.

Released: June 26, 2008

Development of U.S. energy resources and the permitting and construction of large energy facilities have become increasingly difficult over the past 20 years, and they could become even more difficult in the future. Growing public concern about global warming and CO2 emissions also casts doubt on future consumption of fossil fuelsparticularly coal, which releases the largest amount of CO2 per unit of energy produced. Even without regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, the investment community may already be limiting the future use of some energy options. In addition, there is considerable uncertainty about the future availability of, and access to, both domestic and foreign natural gas resources.

Released: February 22, 2007

The AEO2007 reference case projects that an Alaska natural gas pipeline will go into operation in 2018, based on EIAs current understanding of the projects time line and economics. There is continuing debate, however, about the physical configuration and the ownership of the pipeline. In addition, the issue of Alaskas oil and natural gas production taxes has been raised, in the context of a current market environment characterized by rising construction costs and falling natural gas prices. If rates of return on investment by producers are reduced to unacceptable levels, or if the project faces significant delays, other sources of natural gas, such as unconventional natural gas production and LNG imports, could fulfill the demand that otherwise would be served by an Alaska pipeline.

Released: February 22, 2007

This analysis was updated for AEO2009: Impact of Limitations on Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Federal Outer Continental Shelf The OCS is estimated to contain substantial resources of crude oil and natural gas; however, some areas of the OCS are subject to drilling restrictions. With energy prices rising over the past several years, there has been increased interest in the development of more domestic oil and natural gas supply, including OCS resources. In the past, Federal efforts to encourage exploration and development activities in the deep waters of the OCS have been limited primarily to regulations that would reduce royalty payments by lease holders. More recently, the States of Alaska and Virginia have asked the Federal Government to consider leasing in areas off their coastlines that are off limits as a result of actions by the President or Congress. In response, the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior has included in its proposed 5-year leasing plan for 2007-2012 sales of one lease in the Mid-Atlantic area off the coastline of Virginia and two leases in the North Aleutian Basin area of Alaska. Development in both areas still would require lifting of the current ban on drilling.

Released: January 11, 2007

This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in response to a September 27, 2006, request from Senators Bingaman, Landrieu, Murkowski, Specter, Salazar, and Lugar. The Senators requested that EIA assess the impacts of a proposal that would regulate emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) through an allowance cap-and-trade system.

Released: February 1, 2005

H.R. 4837, The Military Construction Appropriations and Emergency Hurricane Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2005 [19], was signed into law on October 13, 2004. The Act provides for construction to support the operations of the U.S. Armed Forces and for military family housing. It also provides funds to help citizens in Florida and elsewhere in the aftermath of multiple hurricanes and other natural disasters. In addition, it authorizes construction of an Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline.

Released: February 1, 2005

The restricted natural gas supply case provides an analysis of the energy-economic implications of a scenario in which future gas supply is significantly more constrained than assumed in the reference case. Future natural gas supply conditions could be constrained because of problems with the construction and operation of large new energy projects, and because the future rate of technological progress could be significantly lower than the historical rate. Although the restricted natural gas supply case represents a plausible set of constraints on future natural gas supply, it is not intended to represent what is likely to happen in the future.

Released: January 1, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Western States Petroleum Association, California Independent Petroleum Association - Petroleum Standards Advisory Committee

Released: December 5, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: CBI Gas Outlook 2004 Conference Houston, Texas December 5, 2003