By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 13, 2012
2 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 13, Japan time: Wind parameters pretty much remain the same, except for adjustments of an hour or two here and there in the forecast wind timeline. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at the moment; expect that to change Friday morning. Sanba forecast to rumble 40 miles west of Okinawa at 3 p.m. Sunday.
As I suspected, the Yokota at Kubasaki and Kadena at Daegu High football games have been wiped off the boards as a result of Sanba’s approach. Oh, they’d be able to play the games, yes; the teams just couldn’t fly home on Sunday when the weather is forecast to be at its peak. DODDS Pacific doth not like student-athletes to miss class because they’re stranded somewhere by bad weather. Safety and academics are top priorities.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 12, 2012
9:45 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 13, Japan time: Can’t emphasize enough; this could be “the one.” The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track has Sanba roaring 40 miles southwest of Okinawa at 2 p.m. Sunday, packing Category 4-equivalent winds at its center and exposing Okinawa to its east quadrants.
Those are typically the worst quadrants because they carry with them all the nastiness that Sanba will have sopped up from warmer, southern ocean waters. Worse, Sanba’s forward motion appears to have slowed, giving it more time to nourish itself with tropical moisture.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 12, 2012
Shirt tailing onto previous question-and-answer blog posts, here are a few questions that crossed my desk in the last day or so, and what to do to ensure these matters are taken care of:
Q) Dave, we have such a bunch of worry warts on this island. Everybody made such a big deal out of Typhoon Bolaven last month, and it turned out to be next to nothing. Now, all I’m hearing is about how Typhoon Sanba will be “the big one.” I tire of the exaggerating because none of these storms ever turn out to be as bad as everybody says. What’s up with that?
A) Sort of like the lesson we learned from the “Boy Who Cried Wolf” children’s tale. Never, ever, ever take that attitude. All it takes is one typhoon to be “the one,” just as when the boy cried, "Wolf! A wolf, indeed!" All it takes if for you to let your guard down when “the one” hits. And you end up being sorry because you took the storm too lightly; thus, you didn’t prepare properly. You didn’t stock up on water, non-perishable food, a flashlight, a portable radio and batteries, diapers and sanitizer for the little one and pet food for your furry friends, didn’t go to the ATM, didn’t gas up; all the little things that ensure you’re prepared, even if all you get is banana winds. Murphy’s Law loves to pitch tent right in the middle of the home that didn’t prepare for the storm. Don’t let that home be yours. You never know when the next one will resemble Typhoon Bart, which tore apart the island over a two-day span in September 1999.
Q) Dave, we at the 18th Wing Weather Flight have fielded tons of phone calls about the Air Force Ball on Saturday. One of our techs received no fewer than 30 calls, mostly about the reschedule date, even little things like fingernails, lipstick and hair. Please get the word out to people to not phone the weather flight for non-operational questions.
A) You heard them. The folks at the Weather Flight are busy doing everything from updating their web products, storm bulletins, wind timelines and the five-day forecast to briefing the 18th Wing commanding officer on tropical cyclone condition of readiness upgrade recommendations, when the wing should start tying down or evacuating aircraft to safe-haven destinations. As for the Air Force Ball, somehow, I doubt the Weather Flight would have much information about it. No makeup date has been announced, as far as I know; heck, it hasn’t been canceled yet, as far as I know.
Q) Dave, during the last typhoon, I gazed out the window after TCCOR 1-E had been declared and I saw that the neighbor next door had not put away his children’s toys and bicycles. He even left the trampoline outside. I heard word that another trampoline was sent airborne on one base, and it lodged into power pole and caused the electricity to go out. What’s up with that?
A) You might risk being viewed as a busybody (or as my Yiddish-fluent grandmother used to say, “Yente”) by the neighbor, but it’s always prudent to remind them – and make sure you do this in advance of the storm – that even the most innocuous, small objects can become dangerous projectiles in winds of 58 mph or greater. Because of a trampoline’s construction, in the right set of wind circumstances, yes, it can be propelled through the air, parachute-like, and break house or car windows and yes, even fly high enough to sever power lines or damage transformers. At Category 4-equivalent wind speeds, even pieces of paper or cardboard can be dangerous.
Q) Dave, I’m an expectant mother in her 37th week. When should pregnant women head to the hospital and how long should they be prepared to stay?
A) According to U.S. Naval Hospital Okinawa officials, women in their 37th week may report to the hospital at or prior to declaration of TCCOR 1-C (caution); at that point, most outdoor activity begins to shut down and everybody heads inside to hunker down. Bring a change of clothing and a toothbrush, and be prepared to stay until TCCOR SW (Storm Watch) is declared.
Q) Dave, what happens if the Yokota at Kubasaki football game Saturday can't be played? That one counts toward Division I title-game berths. Not to mention, it's between the teams that played for the title last year. Both teams don't have a corresponding bye week the rest of the season.
A) According to DODDS Pacific Far East athletics coordinator Don Hobbs, a decision on the fate of that game, plus the Kadena at Daegu High game, will be made sometime Thursday afternoon. As the weather stands now, it looks as if the games themselves could be played, but neither Kadena nor Yokota could fly back home on Sunday. It's DODDS Pacific's policy to ensure that students who travel to a DODDS-sponsored athletic event miss as little school as possible in the process.
Got any typhoon-related questions? Feel free to post them in the comments section, or write me at ornauerd@pstripes.osd.mil.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 10, 2012
6 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Just two days into its existence, Sanba has already been upgraded to Category 1-equivalent typhoon status, and continues its rapid intensification. Joint Typhoon Warning Center now forecasts Sanba to roar 42 miles southwest of Okinawa at 3 p.m. Sunday, packing sustained 132-mph winds and 161-mph gusts at its center. This thing is NO JOKE, people. Every chance it could achieve super-typhoon status. Best to be prepared.
Sanba has slowed somewhat and is tracking more northwest than earlier forecast. Not good news in one respect, in that Sanba is nourishing itself over warm ocean waters. But Sanba appears as if it will continue on course for an almost-direct hit on Okinawa.
Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- 35-mph sustained winds and greater, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- 40-mph sustained winds and greater, 3 a.m. Sunday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds and greater, 8 a.m. Sunday.
-- Maximum 127-mph winds, 138-mph gusts, 3 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 6 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 10 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, midnight Sunday.
Start preparing. Now.
5:30 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 12, Japan time: This thing continues to get bigger, fatter and monstrous with every passing warning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Latest forecast wind timeline as of this afternoon:
-- 35-mph sustained winds and greater, 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- 40-mph sustained winds and greater, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds and greater, 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Maximum 127-mph winds, 144-mph gusts, 11 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 4 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 7 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 9 p.m. Sunday.
Clearly, Sanba is fast approaching the no-joke stage. I know, I know; Bolaven was supposed to be, too (and was for Camp Schwab and Okuma). But far better to be safe than sorry and treat Sanba as the "boy who cried wolf."
More later.
1 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Tropical Storm Sanba slowed early this morning, then yawed a bit west, but is still forecast to make an almost-direct hit on Okinawa early Sunday morning. Closest point of approach is forecast to be 30 miles southwest at 8 a.m. Sunday.
Here's the initial wind forecast timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- 35-mph sustained winds and greater, 3 p.m. Saturday.
-- 40-mph sustained winds and greater, 7 p.m. Saturday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds and greater, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- Maximum 104-mph sustained winds, 127-mph gusts, 7 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 1 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 5 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 7 p.m. Sunday.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track has Sanba rolling through the Okinawa area rather quickly, then steaming north toward the Korean peninsula early next week.
Keep in mind, it's still a bit early, only more than a day since Sanba spawned, so things could still change.
In the meantime, better to be safe than sorry. Time to plan those visits to the PX, ATM, gasoline stand and commissary, and begin a general cleanup around home and office.
Midnight Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: Tropical Storm Sanba continues to develop rapidly, although it's moving north-northwest at a pretty good clip, 14 mph, which affords it less opportunity to nourish itself over warm west-central Pacific waters. Still, Okinawa should be bracing for a wacky, wet Sunday as Sanba roars 48 miles southwest around 6 a.m., packing sustained 115-mph winds and 144-mph gusts at its center.
5 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: In very short order, Sanba, less than a day old, has mushroomed into a tropical storm. And it appears headed closer to Okinawa than first forecast this morning. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest forecast track has Sanba roaring 55 miles southwest of Okinawa at mid-day Sunday, packing sustained 110-mph winds and 132-mph gusts at its center.
4:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: Make that 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as Tropical Depression Sanba is now forecast to rumble 97 miles southwest of Kadena at 9 a.m. Sunday.
11 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: Here we go again. A new tropical depression spawned overnight near Palau. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast calls for 17W to turn north and make a beeline toward Okinawa, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it creeps within 97 miles of Okinawa early Sunday morning. As with all tropical cyclones, this one’s in the early stages, so things could change. Stay tuned to PST, AFN Okinawa Wave 89.1 FM, your commanders’ access channels and Facebook pages.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 29, 2012
8 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 29, Korea time: Tembin remains a severe tropical storm as its course has shifted even farther east, now forecast to make landfall Thursday afternoon just south of Kunsan Air Base, then cutting across the Korean peninsula before exiting south of Kangnung into the Sea of Japan (or East Sea).
Joint Typhoon Warning Center advisories say Tembin still will be packing 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts as it crashes ashore 20 miles south of Kunsan about 5 p.m. Thursday. It should lose some of its strength as it interacts with land, but will still make for a wet, windy day at Daegu, Osan Air Base/Camp Humphreys and Yongsan Garrison.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 28, 2012
3 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 29, Korea time: Wind parameters remain the same, except the forecast track continues to bend eastward and pick up forward speed, with Tropical Storm Tembin now projected to veer 15 miles west of Kunsan Air Base at 6 p.m. Thursday, 5 miles west of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys at 1 a.m. Friday and 10 miles west of Yongsan Garrison at 3 a.m. Friday, packing sustained 52-mph winds and 63-mph gusts.
9 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 28, Korea time: Tropical Storm Tembin, which has battered southern Taiwan the last week, has shifted track and now is on course for a rendezvous Thursday evening or Friday morning along Korea’s west coast, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest advisory says.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 27, 2012
9 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 28, Korea time: Everything on the Korean peninsula’s west coast is pretty much buttoned up, and with good reason: Typhoon Bolaven is making its way through the Yellow Sea (or West Sea) even as I type this, lashing the coast with southerly 58- to 69-mph wind gusts. Forecasts also call for 4 to 6 inches of rain through the evening as Bolaven crashes ashore long North Korea’s west coast just around sunset.
Bolaven should remain a Category 1 typhoon as it rumbles past Kunsan Air Base 90 miles west around high noon. It next passes 110 miles west of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys around 4 p.m., then 106 miles west of Yongsan Garrison at 6 p.m. before making landfall.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 27, 2012
It's all over for Okinawa. Kadena's 18th Wing declares all-clear and we resume seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 12:51 a.m. Tuesday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 27, 2012
6:30 p.m. Monday, Aug. 27, Japan/Korea time: As suspected, all DODDS schools in Korea will shut down, no activities, no classes, no sports, as a precaution in advance of Tuesday’s anticipated arrival of Typhoon Bolaven, which is rapidly losing its punch but is forecast to hit the Yellow Sea (or West Sea) as a severe tropical storm or Category 1-equivalent storm.
Forecasts are still calling for wind gusts between 58 and 69 mph with 10 to 12 inches of rain. Thus, services at the various garrisons and air bases up and down the peninsula will be limited or closed completely.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 26, 2012
2:30 p.m. Monday, Aug. 27, Japan/Korea time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-SW -- for Storm Watch -- has been issued for Okinawa, meaning it now is safe to go outside. Assessment teams still are surveying and checking for damage, flooding, downed power lines and tree limbs, etc. Okinawa was still being lashed by 48 mph winds and heavy rains into evening and possibly early Tuesday morning.
DODDS schools on Okinawa were closed for business on Monday. The same might happen for DODDS schools in Korea on Tuesday, depending on how cozy a visitor Typhoon Bolaven wishes to be to the Korean peninsula.
