Forecasting and Fiscal Constraint

TO THE ATTENTION OF: Division Office Planning and Financial Management Staffs

The purpose of this message is to provide information on the amount of future Federal funds beyond SAFETEA-LU that may be assumed as part of fiscal constraint for metropolitan long-range transportation plans, Transportation Improvement Programs (TIPs), and Statewide Transportation Improvement Programs (STIPs). The following Question and Answer was developed in cooperation with FTA's Office of Planning and Environment.

QUESTION: When a State or MPO prepare a metropolitan long-range transportation plan, TIP, or STIP, what amount of Federal funding may they assume for years beyond the SAFETEA-LU authorization cycle (i.e., Fiscal Year (FY) 2010 and beyond)?

ANSWER: States and MPOs may assume Federal funding based on a straight-lined extrapolation of historic increases in Federal authorizations for that State or MPO. Thus, if Federal authorizations for the State of Muldoon have increased, on average, 6 percent annually over the period FY 1999-2009, then the State of Muldoon may assume that its Federal funding in FY 2010 will be 6 percent higher than is authorized in SAFETEA-LU for FY 2009. Similarly, Muldoon may assume an additional 6 percent increase between FY 2010 and FY 2011, and so forth. While Muldoon may assume a lower rate of increase, it may not assume a higher rate of increase in Federal authorizations. FHWA and FTA recognize that Federal funding after FY 2009 is very uncertain, so we also encourage States and MPOs to consider more conservative estimates of future Federal funding when they develop metropolitan long-range transportation plans, TIPs, and STIPs.

If you have any questions or need additional on this issue, please feel free to contact Spencer Stevens, Office of Planning, at (202) 366-0149, or the member of the Office of Planning assigned to your Division Office as a Planning Stewardship Liaison.