Economic Publications

Energy Costs and Export Performance, April 2012

This paper presents a simple model of international trade that generates predictions about the effect of energy costs on export performance.  The model is applied to NAICS 3-digit industries in the U.S. manufacturing sector and then on a more disaggregated basis for relatively energy-intensive 6-digit manufacturing industries.  The model demonstrates that energy prices have had a significant effect on the export performance of the U.S. manufacturing sector.  The increase in energy prices between 2002 and 2006 limited the expansion of exports over that time period.  The total impact on U.S. non-petroleum manufacturing exports during this period was a reduction in exports of approximately $11.5 billion per year.  In other words, the increase in the industries’ exports would have been approximately $11.5 billion per year higher absent the increase in energy prices.

International Trade and Local Transportation Employment, March 2012

This paper examines how the expansion of international trade can significantly increase the level of employment in the transportation sector using an econometric model that quantifies the effect of U.S. exports on the level of transportation sector employment in different parts of the United States.  The expansion of U.S. exports between 2003 and 2010 added between 63,000 and 140,000 workers to the sector, with a central estimate of 101,000 workers.  This positive contribution of U.S. exports to transportation sector employment offsets some of the national decline in transportation employment over this period.  The 30.4 percent increase in the value of exports between 2003 and 2010 helped to limit the national decline in transportation employment to about one percent over this period.

Jobs Supported by Exports: An Update, March 2012

The 2011 MAS Economics Brief “Projected Jobs Supported by Exports, 2009 and 2010” provided revised estimates for 2009 and 2010 for the value of exports that support one job. This update, based on newly released data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, provides jobs supported by U.S. exports over the period 2002 to 2011.  Jobs supported by exports increased to 9.7 million in 2011, up 1.2 million from the 2009 level of 8.5 million.  The 9.7 million export-supported jobs in 2011 is almost at the pre-recession peak of 9.8 million in 2008.  In 2011, every billion dollars of U.S. exports supported 5,080 jobs.  This is down from 5,998 jobs per billion dollars of U.S. exports in 2009.  Increases in export prices and labor productivity, at 11 percent and 6 percent respectively, drove the 15 percent decline in jobs per billion dollars of U.S. exports since 2009.

Projected Jobs Supported by Exports, 2009 and 2010, July 2011

The International Trade Administration’s 2010 report “Exports Support American Jobs” provided preliminary estimates for jobs supported by exports for 2009 and for the value of exports that support one job for 2009 and 2010. This Economic Brief attempts to improve projections, provide transparency in making the projections, and provides revised estimates for 2009 and 2010.  The revised estimates of jobs supported by exports are 8.7 million in 2009 and 9.2 million in 2010. The value of exports that supports one job was $164,000 in 2009 and $181,000 for 2010. That is, the value fell slightly from 2008 to 2009 because of the recession and softness in export prices. In 2010, the value increased to $181,000 as export prices and productivity strengthened.

Weekly Earnings in Export-Intensive U.S. Services Industries, March 2011

This paper analyzes the weekly earnings of workers in the U.S. services sector. It estimates the premium in labor earnings in U.S. services industries that are export-intensive. The calculations combine worker-level data on weekly earnings, educational attainment, occupational categories, and other demographic characteristics from the Current Population Survey with industry-level data on U.S. exports of services from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  It estimates that workers in export-intensive services industries earn 15 to 20 percent more than comparable workers in other industries.

The Impact of Exporting on the Stability of U.S. Manufacturing Industries, March 2011

This paper investigates the link between exporting and the economic stability of the U.S. manufacturing sector.  It compares the volatility of the domestic shipments of U.S. companies and industries to the volatility of their total, worldwide shipments.  In general, it finds that industries with higher export shares experienced larger reductions in the volatility of their total shipments.

Do Jobs in Export Industries Still Pay More? And Why? July 2010

This paper uses an econometric model to estimate the impact of exporting on the earnings of U.S. manufacturing workers. It examines a sample of the recent earnings of nearly 60,000 U.S. manufacturing workers. It estimates the impact on earnings of several worker characteristics, including the export intensity of the worker’s industry and the worker’s education, age, location, and occupation. It estimates that exports contribute an additional 18 percent to workers’ earnings on average in the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Disaggregated Analysis of Competitiveness and Employment Issues in Energy-Intensive Trade-Exposed Sectors, June 2010

This paper presents and interprets multiple charts that show the relative share of U.S. exports in the eligible energy-intensive, trade-exposed (EITE) sectors according to various regions and destination countries. It provides successive levels of disaggregation with regard to more specific sectors, including Iron & Steel and Chemicals, based on both their share of U.S. exports and the relative importance of large, developing countries such as Brazil, India, China, and South Africa (“BICSA”).   

Energy in 2020: Assessing the Economic Effects of Commercialization of Cellulosic Ethanol, November 2007

U.S. dependence on imports of crude oil has steadily increased for three decades. One way to reduce this dependence is to increase domestic production of renewable fuels such as ethanol. This report examines the effect on the U.S. economy in 2020 if advances in technology allow cellulosic ethanol to become commercially viable.

Potential Exports of U.S. Clean Coal Technology through 2030, November 2007

To reduce overall emissions, the U.S. coal industry is developing specific technology that can be incorporated into coal-fired power plants. That technology will allow coal to be burned with lower emissions of carbon dioxide. The U.S. technological preeminence in this field presents an opportunity to export the equipment and to license the technology to countries such as China and India, where coal-fired electricity production is rising quickly. This paper estimates the potential for U.S. exports of existing clean coal technology to a growing worldwide market.

Visas and Foreign Direct Investment, November 2007

This paper focuses on supporting U.S. competitiveness by facilitating international travel. In particular, the paper examines the relationship between various U.S. visa policies and incoming foreign direct investment in the United States.

Employment Changes in U.S. Food Manufacturing: The Impact of Sugar Prices, February 2006

This paper focuses on employment issues in food manufacturing (including confectionery), cane refining, and related industries. In particular, the paper examines whether U.S. jobs have been lost as a result of the movement of manufacturing facilities offshore due, in material part, to the differential between U.S. and world sugar prices.

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For more information please contact: Julian Richards