NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center
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3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity | ||
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Last 75 Reports | Today's Space Weather | Space Weather Now |
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region 1569 (S12E14) produced occasional B-class flares. It showed a slight decrease in intermediate spots, but retained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No significant changes were observed in the remaining spotted regions. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low through the period (15 - 17 September) with a chance for a C-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (15 September) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. A further increase to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (16 September) with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of the CME associated with the filament disappearance on 13 September. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (17 September). III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Sep 101 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 122 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 009/010-011/015-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/10 Minor storm 01/10/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor storm 15/30/20 Major-severe storm 05/30/10
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