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AGXX40 KNHC 151832
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS NOTED
ALONG 92W S OF 26N. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE SOME WIND SHIFT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A RIDGE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST COULD BRING A BRIEFLY
INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT N OF 26N
AND S OF 26N W OF OF 94W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE. A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BY LATE SUN. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW PART OF THE
GULF. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A POSITION FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO 25N97W MON MORNING AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO 24N94W TUE MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MON AND TUE...MERGING WITH THE FIRST
FRONT AND STALLING OVER THE E GULF WED.

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO 25N70W. A 1013 MB LOW
PRES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 27N67.5W. A SWIRL
OF LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT W OF 70W
TO THE BAHAMAS CHAIN WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NADINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NE
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA RAISING SEAS TO 6-9 FT TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING AS NADINE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. BUOY
41049 LOCATED NEAR 27N63W HAS REPORTED SEAS TO 8 FT. BOTH...THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE LOW PRES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK EAST OF
THE AREA BY SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW OVER THE NW
PORTION OF THE AREA MON THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE
MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED
THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS
CURRENTLY ALONG 53W FROM 11N TO 17N. AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT IN NOTED E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 15N TO 49W.
WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20
KT IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS. HOWEVER...EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
NEAR THE TSTMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WHICH IS PRODUCING
A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THAT COVERS FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS SUN...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON...AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED.

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER GR




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