Valid Monday, February 18, 2013 to Friday, March 01, 2013

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 15 2013

SYNOPSIS: DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIME PROVINCES OF CANADA IS PREDICTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PREDICTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE FROM THE ALEUTIANS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES.

HAZARDS

• RIVER FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST.
• HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND, LONG ISLAND, AND THE NEW JERSEY COAST, MON, FEB 18.
• MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, MON, FEB 18.
• MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TUE-FRI, FEB 19-22.
• HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, MON-TUE, FEB 18-19.
• HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, WED-THU, FEB 20-21.
• HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, WED-THU, FEB 20-21.
• HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST, WED-THU, FEB 20-21.
• SEVERE WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST, THU, FEB 21.
• HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST COASTAL ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, TUE-THU, FEB 19-21.
• HIGH WINDS FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALASKA, AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, MON-FRI, FEB 18-22.
• SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, MIDWEST, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, RIO GRANDE VALLEY, GREAT PLAINS, ROCKIES, SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND HAWAII.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 18 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 22: DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARITIME PROVINCES OF CANADA IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND, LONG ISLAND, AND THE NEW JERSEY COAST, MON, FEB 18. COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, MON, FEB 18. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CAUSE HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, MON-TUE, FEB 18-19. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TUE-FRI, FEB 19-22.

LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON WED FEB 20 IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEVERE WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST, THU, FEB 21, AND HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST, WED-THU, FEB 20-21. FURTHER TO THE NORTH, THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, WED-THU, FEB 20-21. HEAVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE HAZARD AREA, WHILE SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IS PREDICTED TO CAUSE HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, WED-THU, FEB 20-21.

ANTECEDENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION PERSISTS RIVER FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. THE WET PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE REGION MAY PROLONG FLOODING.

AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED FROM THE ALEUTIANS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA TO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THIS LEADS TO AN EXPECTATION OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION (COASTAL RAIN, INLAND SNOW) FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, TUE-THU, FEB 19-21. HIGH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALASKA, AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, MON-FRI, FEB 18-22. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WHICH LEADS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, BUT TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.

FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 23 - FRIDAY MARCH 01: DURING WEEK 2, A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE ZONAL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SUGGESTS AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. A VERY STORMY PATTERN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF HAZARD AREAS. OTHER THAN ONGOING DROUGHT, NO HAZARDS CAN CURRENTLY BE SPECIFIED FOR THIS PERIOD.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, AROUND 38 PERCENT OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. IS COVERED BY SEVERE (D2) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

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