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Tropical Storm KRISTY Forecast Advisory
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 130246
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KRISTY. ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD
REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR A PORTION OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 107.4W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 107.4W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 106.9W
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.5N 108.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 111.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.1N 113.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 23.5N 116.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 25.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 25.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 107.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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