Integrating federal research on global change and climate change

Tuesday March 13, 2012

Jerry Miller, Assistant Director, Ocean Sciences, and
Tom Armstrong, Executive Director, U.S. Global Change Research Program,
Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President

A new study concludes that the current rate of ocean acidification is higher than at any time in at least the last 300 million years and attributes this ecosystem-threatening change to the huge quantities of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere from fossil-fuel burning and deforestation. The study’s investigators, at Columbia University and other institutions, scrutinized Earth’s geologic record for times in ancient history when natural events such as intensive volcanic activity may have similarly led to CO₂ releases or ocean acidification. Although none of those ancient chemical changes appear to have been as extreme as those occurring today, there is nonetheless evidence that they contributed to serious ecological disruptions. That suggests that current trends similarly pose serious threats to marine ecosystems, the researchers conclude in the journal Science.

Oceans are major storage depots for carbon dioxide (CO₂), with levels naturally remaining in rough equilibrium with carbon dioxide levels in the air above. Thus, as human activities like fossil-fuel burning have driven up carbon content in the atmosphere, the world’s oceans have taken up more and more of that carbon. In fact, more than a quarter of the CO₂ released into the atmosphere each year is absorbed by oceans, causing changes in natural seawater chemistry. Among the most significant of these chemical changes has been a gradual increase in the concentrations of carbonic acid and other chemicals—a  process called acidification. This shift, which is already being observed around the world, lowers the concentration and availability of ocean carbonates—a class of chemicals that many marine organisms need to build their skeletons and shells.

Whether and to what extent a more acidic ocean environment is impacting or will impact marine ecosystems is a question that scientists have sought to answer for decades. Nailing down specific impacts is difficult because the complexity of ocean ecosystems far exceeds that which can be fully replicated and analyzed in a laboratory. Just consider the elaborate system of ocean currents, weather patterns, atmospheric conditions, food webs, ocean chemistry, and other factors that play a dynamic role in shaping the marine environment.

In the new study, scientists sought to address that problem by analyzing evidence of ancient changes in marine organisms that correspond to periods in history when the rate of change in atmospheric CO₂ concentration and ocean acidity were particularly high. The study is careful to point out that while no historic event perfectly compares to the current state of our climate and oceans, valuable lessons may still lurk in the geologic record. 

The study found a correlation between periods of rapid acidification and periods when the shell-like plates that cover certain types of algae and plankton shrunk in size.The study also found that at the boundary between Paleocene and Eocene periods (about 55 million years ago), a large release of carbon caused temperatures and ocean acidity to rise, leading to mass extinctions of deep-sea foraminifers—one of the most common marine plankton species—as well as the collapse of coral reefs in shallow waters.   

Because a variety of co-occurring environmental changes may have contributed to these marine ecosystem changes, scientists can’t directly or fully attribute them to ocean acidification. However, they still provide clues about possible causes and consequences of changes to the marine environment—information that is critical not only to scientists, but to communities and local economies that depend on ocean resources for food and income.

For example, studies and monitoring in the Arctic Ocean, the Puget Sound, shellfish hatcheries in the Pacific Northwest and elsewhere have concluded that acidification is already having impacts on marine life, such as compromising the ability of oysters and other organisms to build the protective shells they need to survive. Other reports, such as the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s most recent National Climate Assessment have found that ocean acidification poses a significant threat to coral reefs and the rich ecosystems, local fishing industries, and tourism economies they support.

These threats are among the reasons why the Obama Administration’s National Ocean Council lists among its nine priority objectives strengthening the“resiliency of coastal communities and marine and Great Lakes environments and their abilities to adapt to climate change impacts and ocean acidification.”

For more on ocean acidification, please visit: http://www.noaa.gov/video/administrator/acidification/index.html

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Friday March 9, 2012

Emily Wasley, Inform Decisions and Adaptation Science Program Associate,
U.S. Global Change Research Program

Last week, USGCRP’s National Climate Assessment Director, Kathy Jacobs, joined leaders from business, government, academia, and the non-profit community at the first annual Climate Leadership Conference in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. 

The conference aimed to facilitate information sharing and exchange of ideas on how to address the challenge of climate change while enhancing business and organizational competitiveness, as well as sustainability. It also served as a forum to celebrate and award the achievements of corporations such as IMB, UPS, Campbell Soup Co., Intel Corporation, Ford Motor Co., and others toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions while promoting energy efficiency.  

March 8, 2012

The US Global Change Research Prorgram (globalchange.gov) is currently advertising for two administrative-level positions at the National Coordination Office in Washington, DC.  

The first position is for an Administrative Assistant that would serve as the front face of the office and provide general reception and administrative duties to the National Coordination Office Staff.  In addition, this position is also responsible for serving as the manager of the Resource Library (formerly known as the Global Change Research Information Office or GCRIO). Apply here by March 20. 

The second position is for a student intern to facilitate and implement administrative and technical tasks for the National Climate Assessment within the USGCRP National Coordination Office.  Students must be enrolled in college or university and completed or enrolled in coursework in relevant disciplines, such as environmental or earth sciences, political science, social science, or communications.  Apply here by March 20.

Tuesday March 06, 2012

Phil Duffy, Senior Policy Analyst and 
Becky Fried, Policy Analyst,
Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President

Polling results released last week by the University of Michigan and Muhlenberg College (Pennsylvania) show that, compared to previous surveys, the largest majority of Americans in years now believe global warming is occurring. Sixty two percent of respondents to the December 2011 National Survey of American Public Opinion on Climate Change (NSAPOCC) agreed there is “solid evidence” that Earth has been getting warmer over the past four decades—a marked increase from 55 percent just half a year earlier.

Notably, however, almost half of the 62 percent said their views were shaped by personal observations of temperature and weather phenomena.  In narrative explanations of why they accept the reality of global warming, survey respondents indicated “winters just aren’t as cold as they were in the past,” “temperatures last summer that were awful,” and “droughts this past summer,” among other observations.

Those results suggest that many Americans are basing their climate change attitudes on near-term personal experiences and observations rather than the stream of scientific evidence demonstrating climate change and warmer-than-normal global temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions. While science tells us that there are indeed links between local weather and global climate, particular weather events and short-term variations are not reliable indicators of long-term climate trends, which must be measured across decades or longer. So while more and more Americans apparently agree with the scientific consensus on climate change, many seem to be doing so for the wrong reasons.

The risk in this, of course, is that in years when short-term weather cycles are cooler—as can be expected occasionally in the course of the current longer-term warming trend—these people will be more likely to change their minds. Indeed, the poll found that some Americans are already making this error.  In the study, among those who said they are unconvinced that global warming is happening, the most commonly cited rationales were personal observations such as “winters were just as cold as when I was a kid,” or “our weather seems just as cold as in the past."

“People naturally form viewpoints and make decisions based on personal experience. It’s one reason why understanding the local-scale impacts of climate change and how they differ from weather is so critical.” said Tom Armstrong, Director of the U.S. Global Change Research Program.  “Communicating this information broadly is one of the most important ways we can ensure that people and communities are able to make informed, science-based decisions.”

The NSAPOCC is planning a follow-up report to explore the connections between American climate change attitudes and policies.

Posted by Phil Duffy and Becky Fried

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