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Here's a round-up of the latest developments:
Syria
• A Syrian fighter pilot has landed in Jordan and asked for asylum. He is believed to be the first Syrian air force pilot to defect with an aircraft during the 16-month uprising.
• In a posting on Facebook, Robert Ford, the US ambassador to Syria, has appealed to Syrian military officers to defect or face international justice (see 3.34pm).
• Continued shelling in the Syrian city of Homs has thwarted a Red Cross bid to evacuate civilians from the violence. Government forces and rebel fighters agreed on Wednesday to a two-hour ceasefire to allow aid workers into the worst affected areas.
• The Arab League has called on Russia to stop supplying arms to Syria, the Telegraph reports. The League's deputy secretary general Ahmed Ben Hilli told Interfax news agency, "Any assistance to violence must be ceased because when you supply military equipment, you help kill people. This must stop."
• Britain and America are willing to offer President Bashar al-Assad, safe passage – and even clemency – as part of a diplomatic push to convene a UN-sponsored conference in Geneva on political transition in Syria. In public, Russian president Vladimir Putin has stated that no country has the right to tell Syria who its president should be.
Egypt
• There won't be an Algerian-style civil war in Egypt over the military councils power grab and the dissolution of parliament, according to the speaker of the parliament Saad al-Katatni. "What happened in Algeria cannot be repeated in Egypt," he told Reuters.
• A delay in the election results is stoking fears over what the military council is planning next. It is reported to be determined not to allow the Muslim Brotherhood to "seize power".
• The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis Nour Party have warned of another revolution against the military council's decision to grant itself sweeping new powers, according to the Egypt Independent. They have called on Egyptians to go to Tahrir Square on Friday and take part in the "Return of Legitimacy" demonstration.
Syria: A new poll by the Pew Research Centre reveals that large majorities in Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey have unfavourable views of President Assad and think he should step down.
A smaller majority of Lebanese share that opinion too, but Shia Muslims in Lebanon overwhelmingly support Assad and say he should not step down. Christians in Lebanon have a less unfavourable view of Assad than Sunni Muslims.
Regarding sanctions and/or military action, Tunisians are the most interventionist: 63% favour more sanctions, 61% favour Arab military intervention and 38% favour western military intervention.
The poll's methodology is here.
Syria/Jordan: There is some confusion about the legal status of the pilot.
AP quotes a Jordanian security official as saying that he will be allowed to stay on "humanitarian grounds".
The official said the Syrian defector would be tortured or killed if he were sent home. He declined to say what Jordan will do with the Syrian jet.
But a Jordanian information minister Samih Maaytah told AFP that the pilot had been granted asylum.
Egypt: Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei fears the worst ahead of the election results.
I urged SCAF & Muslim Brotherhood on the immediate need for mediation to avoid explosion. Time to act is now
— Mohamed ElBaradei (@ElBaradei) June 21, 2012
Syria: Do colonels in the Syrian airforce read Facebook posting by the US ambassador?
Unlikely, but Robert Ford's latest post on Syria is interesting in the light of today's reported defection by a pilot with his aircraft. Ford appeals to military officers to defect or face international justice.
Members of the Syrian military should reconsider their support for a regime that is losing the battle. The Assad regime cannot outlast the desire of Syrian people for a democratic state. The officers and soldiers of the Syrian military have a choice to make.
Do they want to expose themselves to criminal prosecution by supporting the barbaric actions of the Assad regime against the Syrian people? Or do they want to help secure the role of the professional military in a democratic Syria by supporting the Syrian people and their transition to an inclusive, tolerant and representative democracy that respects human rights and equal, fair treatment for all components of the Syrian nation?
Syria: "Defections are a vitally important metric in analysing whether or not the Assad regime will fall any time soon," says James Denselow, defence and Middle East analyst at King's College London.
Reflecting on today's reports of a colonel defecting with his jet to Jordon, Denselow said:
In Libya, Egypt and Tunisia we saw the military abandoning the regimes as a key factor in toppling the respective leaders there.
It is a very high-profile act to have a fighter plane leave the country. If there is momentum to be found in defections, this could be another one of the pivots. We saw, about ten days ago, the defection of an air defence battery. It is that kind of story that we need to pick up on, in terms of what happens next.
The history of praetorian republican guard regimes is that they keep sects and tribes that are closer to their ruling family, in positions of larger power in the military. So this is clearly a senior ranking pilot flying quite an expensive bit of kit, so the Syrians will be very embarrassed by this. Whether it will lead to large scale defections elsewhere, we will wait and see ...
It is very symbolic moment, but on a practical level the defections would have to include larger divisions larger numbers of soldiers perhaps defecting en masse with their weapons rather than the drip, drip that we have seen largely to date.
On the broader state of the conflict, Denselow argued that the use of air and artillery fire power is an act of desperation by the Assad regime.
It is a sign of greater weakness rather than an act of strength. It shows how the government is losing control of the country and forced to use increasingly stand-off weapons, as a means of deal with the opposition and rebel elements.
Tunisia/Libya: The Tunisian air force has destroyed two vehicles filled with armed men crossing the border from Libya, AP reports citing a security official in southern Tunisia.
The information was also reported by the state news agency and in local media and said a Tunisian fighter jet was on a routine patrol in the area where the Algerian, Libyan and Tunisian borders converge when it was shot at by the people in three vehicles.
The plane responded by destroying two of the vehicles, the official said Thursday on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press. The third vehicle escaped.
The official said it was the third such incident in this sensitive desert region in the last few months. The convoy of vehicles appeared to be heading east towards Algeria.
Syria: Gunfire in Homs today thwarted a mission to rescue civilians trapped in the city, the International Committee of the Red Cross has confirmed.
But the ICRC plans to make another attempt later today after securing an agreement yesterday from both government forces and rebels for a two-hour pause in the fighting.
A spokesman said: "An ICRC and Syrian Arab Red Crescent team tried to enter the old city of Homs today. But gunfire in the vicinity forced them to turn back. The team is now in another area of Homs city and will try again to enter the affected area later today. The team will re-establish contact with the parties to the fighting."
Syria: Russia has confirmed for the first time that the MV Alaed was carrying helicopters belonging to the Syrian government, AFP reports. The ship was turned back towards Russia earlier this week after insurers withdrew their cover.
The Russians are reportedly planning a second attempt to deliver the helicopters to Syria – on a vessel flying the Russian flag rather than that of the Caribbean island of Curacao.
Syria/Jordan: The reported defection of a Syrian air force pilot with his aircraft is likely to complicate Syrian-Jordanian relations.
The Associated Press notes that despite receiving some 125,000 Syrian refugees, including hundreds of army and police defectors (whose return has been sought by Syria), Jordan has tried to avoid being dragged into the conflict.
Jordan's commercial ties with Syria are especially important – bilateral trade was estimated at $470m last year. Also, AP says, 60% of Jordanian exports of mainly fruit and vegetables are routed through Syria for onward shipping to Turkey overland or to Europe via Syria's Mediterranean coast. Jordan itself has no direct access to the Mediterranean.
Syria: Al-Jazeera reporter says there was a co-pilot on board the MiG-21 who is also asking for asylum in Jordan.
Here's a round up of the main developments so far today:
Syria
• A Syrian fighter pilot has landed in Jordan and asked for asylum. The pilot, a colonel, named by opposition activists as Hassan Merhi al-Hamadi, landed his MiG-21 jet at Jordan's King Hussein military base this morning after leaving Syrian air space during a training exercise. He is believed to be the first Syrian air force pilot to defect with an aircraft during the 16-month uprising.
• Continued shelling in the Syrian city of Homs has thwarted a Red Cross bid to evacuate civilians from the violence. Government forces and rebel fighters agreed on Wednesday to a two-hour ceasefire to allow aid workers into the worst affected areas.
• The Arab League has called on Russia to stop supplying arms to Syria, the Telegraph reports. The League's deputy secretary general Ahmed Ben Hilli told Interfax news agency, "Any assistance to violence must be ceased because when you supply military equipment, you help kill people. This must stop."
• Britain and America are willing to offer President Bashar al-Assad, safe passage – and even clemency – as part of a diplomatic push to convene a UN-sponsored conference in Geneva on political transition in Syria. In public, Russian president Vladimir Putin has stated that no country has the right to tell Syria who its president should be. But in private talks at the G20 in Mexico, David Cameron and Barack Obama received enough encouragement from Putin to pursue the idea of a negotiated transition in Syria.
Egypt
• There won't be an Algerian-style civil war in Egypt over the military councils power grab and the dissolution of parliament, according to the speaker of the parliament Saad al-Katatni. "What happened in Algeria cannot be repeated in Egypt," he told Reuters.
• A delay in the election results is stoking fears over what the military council is planning next. It is reported to be determined not to allow the Muslim Brotherhood to "seize power".
• The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis Nour Party have warned of another revolution against the military council's decision to grant itself sweeping new powers, according to the Egypt Independent. They have called on Egyptians to go to Tahrir Square on Friday and take part in the "Return of Legitimacy" demonstration.
Syria: Jordan's information minister now says a Syrian fighter jet defected to Jordan, according to an update from AP.
The minister Sameeh Maaytah confirmed the defection, after initially saying the the plane made an emergency landing.
A spokesman for the rebel Free Syrian Army, Ahmad Kassem, said the plane had defected to Jordan and that its pilot was seeking political asylum. He said the group had encouraged the pilot to defect.
Reuters says this the first defection involving an aircraft since the start of the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad.
A Jordanian security source said the pilot flew from al-Dumair military airport northeast of Damascus and landed at King Hussein Airbase at 11 am. (9am BST).
A Jordanian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, described the defection as "difficult to handle", referring to Amman's nervousness over possible a Syrian military reaction after months of border tension between the two countries, ignited by thousands of Syrians fleeing a crackdown on the revolt to Jordan.
Syria: The King Hussein air base in Mafraq, where the Syrian colonel landed, is only a few miles from Jordan's border with Syria.
As this Google Map shows Mafraq is also close to the Syrian-opposition stronghold of Deraa.
Syria: Jordanian minister of state for information Samih al-Maaytah, has confirmed that the pilot has asked for asylum.
Reuters quoted him saying: "He requested political asylum in Jordan. He is being debriefed at the moment."
Military analysts reckon that Syria has 140 MiG 21 in service.
Syria: The Syrian fighter jet made an "emergency landing" at a northern Jordanian airbase, according to AP, citing a Jordanian official.
The official says the Russian-made MiG-21 landed Thursday at the King Hussein Air Base in Mafraq, a north Jordanian town near the Syrian border.
He declined to provide other details. Two other officials gave similar accounts.
All three spoke on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the matter.
Syria: It is highly unusual for the state news agency to give credence to reports about military defections.
But this brief statement is giving the story legs:
An official source announced on Thursday that contact was lost with an MiG-21 aircraft that was on a training flight.
The source added in a statement that the aircraft, which was piloted by Col. Hassan Mirei al-Hamadeh, was near the Syrian southern borders before contact with it was lost at around 10: 34 am.
Syria: The pilot has asked for political asylum, according to Reuters citing a Jordanian minister
Syria: A few unconfirmed details about the breaking defection story.
Journalist Zaid Benjamin tweets:
#BREAKING: A source in the Free Syrian Army says that a Syrian pilot defected and more to come #Syria #Assad #Damascus
— Zaid Benjamin (@zaidbenjamin) June 21, 2012
#BREAKING: A source in the Free Syrian Army says the final destination of the defected pilot could be #France - Radio Sawa #Syria #Assad
— Zaid Benjamin (@zaidbenjamin) June 21, 2012
Opposition site Urgarit News says:
A Syrian MiG-21 piloted by Colonel Hasan Mar'e Hammade is reported to have defected and landed in a military base in Jordan, after the Syrian regime reported losing contact with the aircraft at 10.34am 'near the southern region'.
Syria: A Syrian MiG-21 aircraft has landed at Mafraq military airfield in Jordan, Reuters reports citing a Jordanian security source. It appears that an air force colonel has defected:
RT @Psypherize: Air Force Colonel Mohammed Maree who fled with his MiG-21 from #Syria to #Jordanhas defected from #Assad.
— FREEDOM (@DamascusSYR) June 21, 2012
Earlier, Syria's state-run TV said the authorities had lost contact with a military plane that was on a training mission, the Associated Press reports.
Egypt: There won't be an Algerian-style civil war in Egypt over the military councils power grab and the dissolution of parliament, the speaker of the parliament Saad al-Katatni told Reuters.
"What happened in Algeria cannot be repeated in Egypt," said Katatni, rejecting comparisons with the conflict that erupted 20 years ago when a military-backed government blocked another Islamist group's ascent to power through the ballot box. Some 150,000 or more Algerians were killed during the 1990s.
"The Egyptian people are different and not armed," Katatni, a 61-year-old microbiologist, said in his first interview since the Islamist-dominated legislature was dissolved after a court ruled procedures in its election were unconstitutional.
"We are fighting a legal struggle via the establishment and a popular struggle in the streets," he said. "This is the ceiling. I see the continuation of the struggle in this way."
He demanded the army recognize democracy but also offered conciliatory words: "Everyone must submit to popular will," said Katatni, who was elected by fellow lawmakers in January to preside over Egypt's first freely elected parliament in decades.
The army deserved thanks for removing Mubarak and preventing wider bloodshed, he said in an interview at a party office – like other members, he is barred from the parliament building.
Analysts have drawn parallels with the events of last week and what happened in Algeria in the early 1990s, but have also pointed out crucial differences.
Michael Collins Dunn at the Middle East Institute said:
Algeria is a very different country. A decade of struggle for independence from France produced a country in which war for political ends was part of the legacy of the nation. Protracted civil war has been rare in Egyptian history and nonexistent in the past several centuries. The Army has not fought a war since 1973 (the internal "war" against radical Islamists in the 1990s was mostly fought by State Security).
Writing for the Arabist blog Steve Negus said:
I don't think an Algeria post-1991 situation would be likely under a Shafiq presidency, as some have suggested, but for the first time it would be a possibility.
Egypt: The ruling military council is determined not to let the Muslim Brotherhood "seize power", according to an unnamed military source interviewed by Ahram Online. The source continues:
[The military council] will not relinquish the reins of power until a new constitution is issued and the arena is set for a balanced political process.
There are political forces that want to discredit the political process by making people believe that matters are being decided by political deals. To avoid any sudden shifts that could lead to confrontation and drive the situation to the brink, the military council remains the only force capable of regulating the political process so as to preserve the stability of the state.
The United States and the European Union have both been sending messages reflecting their preference for [the Muslim Brotherhood's] Mohamed Morsi as Egypt's president. In the belief that they enjoy this support, the group has adopted a policy of pressuring Egypt's interim rulers regarding upcoming political arrangements.
Moreover, the Muslim Brotherhood's guidance bureau has been exchanging messages with the US – to which Israel is privy – containing reassurances about the group's stance on Hamas, Gaza and the Camp David accords. It remains unclear, however, whether the US would prefer to see Morsi or Shafiq in Egypt's highest office.
Libya: Last week's clashes in the Nafusa mountains left 105 people dead and 500 injured, according to government spokesman Nasser el-Manee. This is much higher than a previous figure given by the health ministry which said only 32 had died, the Libya Herald says.
There have been no new reports of fighting since Monday, two days after the government sent forces to the region and declared it a military zone. "The armed forces are now on the ground and calm has returned," el-Manee said.
He added that "both heavy and light weapons" had been used during the fighting. Last Thursday, Libya Herald reporters clearly overheard sustained heavy gunfire from nearby Jadu.
The fighting initially began on 11 June after a brigadesman from Zintan was allegedly shot dead at a checkpoint controlled by the Mashasha tribe. Resentment between the two groups was exacerbated by last year's revolution, in which the Zintanis and the Mashasha fought on opposing sides, with the Mashasha supporting Gaddafi.
Egypt: The postponement of the presidential election result is grist to the rumour mill in Egypt, says Abdel-Rahman Hussein in Cairo.
The delay is raising suspicions because after the first round of the vote appeals were quickly rejected, he says.
"For them to be saying 'we are going to be reviewing these complaints in great detail' is just adding to the uncertainty. There could be a very logical explanation, but it is adding to the uncertainty that is engulfing the country at the moment," Abdu said.
The military council is thought to have offered the Muslim Brotherhood the presidency if it accepts the dissolution of parliament. Speculation about such a deal is "definitely resonating" in Cairo, Abdu said.
What Cairo has been subjected to in the past two days is an incredible amount of rumours. Starting off with Mubarak is 'clinically dead' and then 'no he's not he's alive and well'. But there has also been a number of rumours about the Muslim Brotherhood taking up arms; the army deploying; and Muslim Brotherhood commanders being arrested for election fraud. The only thing that has been true is the deployment of army troops, around the exit and entry ways around the capital and other major cities. But that is something they have done before, so it might have significance, it might not
.
Tomorrow's planned protest in Tahrir Square is likely to see a big turnout, Abdu predicts.
From tonight the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Salafists and other non-Islamic political factions will be gathering in the square. They plan a sit-in until the election results are announced. Everybody is just waiting.
The military council has pledged to move Hosni Mubarak back to military prison if his condition improves. But Abdu said he doubted whether it would honour this commitment as Mubarak drifts in and out of consciousness. "His health has to increase considerably, before they would consider moving him back [to prison]. I don't think there is any rush to move him back," he said.
Meanwhile, the election campaign of Mubarak's last prime minister Ahmed Shafiq claims the Muslim Brotherhood's figure don't tally with the turnout. They claim the Brotherhood has counted an extra two million votes, but they have offered little proof.
Syria/Lebanon: The new leader of the opposition Syrian National Council, Abdulbaset Sieda, has urged Hezbollah to prepare for life without President Assad, NOW Lebanon reports. The Syrian and Iranian regimes are the Lebanese Shia organisation's main external backers.
"[Hezbollah] needs to get ready for the period that follows the departure of this [Syrian] regime," Sieda told Voice of Lebanon radio station.
Asked about Hezbollah's alleged involvement in the Syrian events, the SNC chief said: "We do not have [evidence] on this issue and we hope that we will not find any."
Hezbollah is the Syrian regime's strongest ally in Lebanon and it spearheads the March 8 [government] coalition.
Egypt: Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Right Watch, has attacked Catherine Ashton, the EU's high representative for foreign affairs, over a statement she issued yesterday congratulating Egyptians "on a successful second round of the presidential election".
On Twitter, Roth says it is "an extraordinarily weak statement" about the "quasi-coup" which doesn't even mention the Egyptian military.
An extraordinarily weak statement on #Egypt quasi-coup from EU High Rep Ashton. Doesn't even mention the military. bit.ly/NWxoVh
— Kenneth Roth (@KenRoth) June 21, 2012
Describing the election as "a major step forward in the ongoing transition", Ashton's statement continues:
She [Ashton] is, however, concerned about latest institutional developments surrounding the vote, in particular the dissolution of parliament and the constitutional declaration of 17 June, which seriously constrains the powers of the president, and creates uncertainties about the drafting of a new constitution.
The high representative stresses the importance of democratic institutions, a representative constitutional process and a speedy handover. The transition must respect the Egyptian people's aspirations and demands for dignity, democracy and freedom. The high representative reiterates the EU's eagerness to engage with Egypt's democratically elected authorities."
Syria: Residents in Homs claim the Syrian army is shelling central districts despite accepting a truce to allow the Red Cross to enter the city, Reuters reports.
Waleed Fares, a resident of one neighbourhoods the ICRC was trying to enter, said shelling was heaviest at dawn on Thursday but there were signs the violence may be subsiding.
"Early this morning there was heavy shelling. Now I can hear one or two mortars fall every half an hour. It is quiet today compared to the past few days," he said, adding that two people had died in his neighbourhood of Khalidiya on Thursday.
Another video feed on the live streaming site Bambuser showed smoke rising from buildings amid the sound of gunfire.
Two people were killed and several injured in Homs today, according to an update from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Syria: US state department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland confirmed that diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis are centred on a possible deal to remove Assad from power.
At a press briefing on Wednesday she said:
We are focused very much on elevating that aspect of the Kofi plan that has not gotten enough attention, and that is the political transition aspect. The plan calls for a political transition. We need, as we've said for many, many weeks here – this can go well or it can go badly. The international community can help the Syrians to manage a transition to a post-Assad Syria that is democratic, that is inclusive, that preserves the best of Syrian society, Syrian institutions, that stops the bleeding, stops the damage, or this will continue to devolve into civil war, proxy war, et cetera.
So we are working very intensively with Kofi Annan and his people, in the wake of the President's meeting with President Putin, Premier Hu Jintao, the others in Los Cabos, to try to turn that commitment to supporting a political transition into a real framework that the – that can take us where we need to go ...
We are supportive of doing this meeting if it can make progress and specifically if it can make progress in shaping and framing a political transition process that can take us past the Assad regime and give Syrians of all stripes confidence in their future. So we're continuing to talk about what the elements of that might be.
(all times BST) Welcome to Middle East Live.
The delay in the presidential election results has added renewed uncertainty to Egypt's political crisis ahead of a planned protest against the military council. And as the fighting intensifies in Syria, world leaders haggle over a possible clemency deal for president Bashar al-Assad.
Here's a summary of the latest developments:
Egypt
• The election commission has delayed an announcement of the presidential election results while it considers appeals from the two candidates, both of whom claim to have won. The Muslim Brotherhood claims its candidate, Mohamed Morsi, won 13.2m votes, compared to Ahmed Shafiq's total 12.3m. A member of Shafiq's campaign, Tamir Wagih, told the Guardian that the Brotherhood's figures were based on incomplete results. The Shafiq campaign figures – which are not final – give their candidate 10.85m and Morsi 10.5m votes, with two million still to be counted.
• The Muslim Brotherhood said the delay was unwarranted and claimed the military council was trying to secure an "alarming" backroom deal. Speaking to the BBC World Service, spokesman Jihad al-Haddad, said:
There are efforts by intermediate parties who are trying to negotiate a settlement that the democratic forces in Egypt have to accept the dissolution of parliament in order for them to announce the result of the presidential election. This type of bidding is extremely threatening to the democratic transition.
He added that even if Shafiq's complaints were entirely accepted and the Brotherhood's complaints entirely rejected, Morsi would still have won the election.
Security sources say they are working on a 'Plan B,' in which Shafiq would be declared president.
"We're bracing for a major wave of rioting and unrest for at least two days, which could be incited by the Muslim Brotherhood after Shafiq is announced president," the security source said.
• The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis Nour Party have warned of another revolution against the military council's decision to grant itself sweeping new powers, according to the Egypt Independent. They have called on Egyptians to go to Tahrir Square on Friday and take part in the "Return of Legitimacy" demonstration.
The BBC network asked Mahmoud al-Shenawy, deputy editor of MENA, to confirm the procedures taken by the agency to verify the news of Mubarak's near-death. Shenawy replied that MENA decided to publish the news at the editor's discretion, without following the usual methods of verifying information via independent sources, and relying on testimony from unverified anonymous sources.
Syria
• Britain and America are willing to offer President Bashar al-Assad, safe passage – and even clemency – as part of a diplomatic push to convene a UN-sponsored conference in Geneva on political transition in Syria. In public Russian president Vladimir Putin has stated that no country has the right to tell Syria who its president should be. But in private talks at the G20 in Mexico, David Cameron and Barack Obama received enough encouragement from Putin to pursue the idea of a negotiated transition in Syria.
On the basis of these discussions, the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, will now seek to persuade the former UN secretary general, Kofi Annan, to change the format of his plans to construct a contact group on Syria, and instead host a conference using the transition on Yemen as the model.
Participants would include representatives of the Syrian government, leading figures in the opposition, the five permanent members of the UN security council and key figures in the region, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Russia has been pressing for Iran to be able to attend.
British officials see some slim possibility that Russia, keen on that Yemeni parallel, will now help pressure Assad – though it has conspicuously failed to do so so far. Moscow, still smarting over Libya, has balked at anything that smacks of "regime change" though it would be hard to attach that label to something that was agreed by Syrians under an international umbrella.
The other very obvious snags are that Assad looks unlikely to bite while even the most pragmatic of his opponents – their numbers dwindling as the crisis deepens – would find it hard to believe he will negotiate in good faith. In an increasingly sectarian atmosphere, the president's departure would not solve the problem of his closest advisers and cronies as well as the wider Alawite community which dominates the security forces and fears revenge by the Sunni majority.
Kofi Annan will probably back this idea because pronouncing his peace plan dead would be too dangerous. But the bitter truth is almost all parts of it have been ignored.
• The International Committee of the Red Cross said it had received assurances from the Syrian government and opposition forces on a plan for a temporary truce to evacuate those trapped and injured by the violence in Homs, the LA Times reports. But reports from pro-opposition activists in Homs indicated that the government had continued shelling, clashes were ongoing and there was no sign of a relief operation. Rebels were also reportedly on the offensive, seeking to reoccupy the battered Baba Amr district.
Cobra, the government's emergency security committee, met several times as the MV Alaed approached British waters.
With the United States placing pressure on Britain to halt the vessel, the prime minister was regularly briefed on the situation. It is understood that he was presented with several options including a military seizure of the ship.
Avoiding a confrontation that could have damaged already strained ties with Russia, the government instead took action to ensure that the Alaed's insurance cover was withdrawn.
Bahrain
• Prosecutors in Bahrain have charged 11-year-old Ali Hasan with taking part in an illegal gathering, which could see him sent to jail. He already spent a nearly a month in a juvenile detention after being accused of helping protesters block a street, before being released last week to await trial. He told the Guardian he was merely playing with friends in the street and had nothing to do with the protests.
• Britain is being urged to deny entry to the head of Bahrain's Olympic committee – the son of the king – on the grounds of alleged involvement in serious human rights violations. Prince Nasser bin Hamad Al Khalifa is claimed to have been "personally engaged" in beating, flogging and kicking pro-democracy protesters.
Kuwait
• Kuwait is on the "brink of political meltdown" after the constitution court dissolve the Islamist-dominated parliament elected in February and reinstated the previous national assembly, according to Kristian Coates Ulrichsen research fellow at LSE. Writing in Foreign Policy magazine he said:
There is a danger that the opposition will respond to the voiding of the election by urging its supporters to once again take to the streets. Individual (now-ex) MPs threatened to do precisely this even before the brazenly provocative judgement of the Constitutional Court deprived them of their parliamentary success. Having witnessed how the mobilization of tens of thousands of supporters effectively forced the Emir's hand last November, an emboldened opposition may well attempt to repeat the trick this time around.
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21 June 2012 9:05AM
Homs Governorate: Armed Terrorist Groups Thwarted Efforts to Evacuate Civilians.
In a statement, the Governorate said that this situation endangers the lives of innocent civilians, especially children, women, elderly and individuals with special needs, and that it shows that the terrorist continue to threaten and terrorize civilians and refuse to comply with the efforts being exerted for around a week to evacuate these citizens.
The statement concluded by affirming that the Government took all necessary steps to evacuate these citizens without any restrictions or conditions, and that it complied fully with the UN observer mission and prepared all possible necessities that citizens will need when they leave the neighborhoods afflicted by terrorist groups.
21 June 2012 9:17AM
I keep wondering what an Unarmed Terrorist Groups would look like...
21 June 2012 9:17AM
What weapons were sold by this Govt to Egypt last year?
21 June 2012 9:18AM
Libyaherald.com
Coastal road blocked by Cyrenaica federalists: report
Tripoli, 20 June: Cyrenaica federalists are reported to have set up a road block on the coastal highway today, Tuesday, at Wadi Al-Ahmar between Sirte and Ben Jawad
Media star Suleiman Dogha kidnapped – and released – after spat with Misratans
Misrata, 20 June: The renowned media personality Suleiman Dogha was kidnapped earlier today by a brigade belonging to the Misrata branch of the Supreme Security Council
Official death toll triples for Nafusa Mountain clashes
Tripoli, 20 June: 105 people were killed and around 500 wounded during last week’s clashes in the Nafusa Mountains, government spokesman Nasser El-Manee said today.
Convoy reported attacked in Bani Walid
Tripoli, 20 June: A convoy of vehicles belonging to the Wadi Al-Ajaal National Security Directorate was reportedly attacked in the Bani Walid area on Monday afternoon
Not much good news from Libya today. The government claims the fighting in the Nafusa Mountains has stopped, though at least one other source contradicts that. I’m beginning to think that this is being caused by the elections on 7th July. A lot of individual Libyans are excited about the elections, but I suspect the regional powers and militias are beginning to worry about what comes after the election and are flexing their muscles. They could safely ignore the NTC and transitional government because they were largely ineffective and open to pressure and (probably) corruption. By contrast nobody knows what kind of national government will emerge after 7th July.
There seems some real fear and real anger in the East at the prospect of Cyrenaica being ignored in a new Libya. A man there is on an (unreported over here) hunger strike over the issue and the Federalists setting up a road block is another sign. There is also the possibility of a kind of rump neo-Gaddafista region emerging in the centre of the country, in areas that were seen as strongly pro-Gaddafi in the war and have been treated badly for it, between the Tripolitanian heartlands to the west and Cyrenaica to the east. There are reports, perhaps credible, of people from Bani Walid, Sirte and Tawergha recently fighting alongside the Mashasha against Zintan and there are continuing reports of clashes in Sabha and Brak just to the north of Sabha. If you look at the map, the key locations of Sirte, Bani Walid, Mizdah and Sabha form a sort of triangle in the centre of the country. In the south, the Toubou v Arab confrontation stretching from Murzuq to Kufra seems temporarily quieter but again fundamentally unresolved.
21 June 2012 9:22AM
While digging through various Syrian Youtube channels last night I came across a very interesting pair of videos. The first is the usual battalion formation videos you see all the time, albeit with an interesting RPG round loaded into one of the members launcher, but the second video it what's extremely interesting.
It appears to show the Deputy Commander of the Free Syrian Army, Colonel Ahmed Hijazi, inspecting the troops. All reports suggested he was in Turkey, keeping out of harms way, and this is the first evidence I've seen of him returning to Syria. So the question we have to ask is why and how? Did the FSA sneak him over the border, risking the life of one of the most senior members of the FSA, just so he could meet two dozens soldiers to tell them what a good job they are doing? Does it suggest the FSA can now move so freely in that area that it's not considered a risk? Or does he have a much more important mission in Syria?
21 June 2012 9:32AM
@BM. He's probably scared of being marginalised in Turkey, while other rebel leaders rise to pominence in Syria itself. So he's rushed across the border to show his face. It's a bit like, during the Libyan war, an NTC minister from Benghazi would occasionaly show up in Zintan and the Nafusa Mountains to 'prove' that the NTC were in command there, even though they weren't then, and aren't really now.
21 June 2012 9:39AM
In other words "regime change" why don't they come out and say it instead of all these statements, do they really think the public are dumb.
21 June 2012 9:57AM
The New York Times has confirmed that the CIA are helping the opposition from Southern Turkey
The report says they've been there for a matter of weeks but Boiling Frogs posts reported about this back in 2011.
21 June 2012 10:02AM
In other words "regime change" why don't they come out and say it instead of all these statements, do they really think the public are dumb.
Are you dumb? (question not statement) It is obvious to anyone with a morsel of intelligence that Assad CANNOT continue to lead Syria, HE IS THE FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM! He is the reason this is happening. He has to go and it is a matter of time until he does, his country will just tear itself apart otherwise.
If Assad was not Putin's little plaything he would be long gone.
21 June 2012 10:13AM
Catherine Ashton has, as the French say, wasted an excellent opportunity to keep quiet.
21 June 2012 10:17AM
Western puppets back in control.
Danger of Arab self determination and development of democracy removed.
Danger to continued ethnic cleansing of Palestinians removed.
Torturers can work again freely.
Expect subdued western media response.
21 June 2012 10:22AM
I've just been told it was filmed at Jisr ash-Shugur, right on the Turkish-Syrian border.
21 June 2012 10:27AM
@BM. Hmm, so he wasn't risking very much then!
21 June 2012 10:31AM
Makes you wonder what else is going back and forth across the border. I wonder if there's any refugee camps on the opposite side of the border.
21 June 2012 10:42AM
@negativecamber
Typical reply from you take a comment out of context. Actually probably cleverer than you mate.
21 June 2012 10:43AM
@BM Well, as you know, I'm concentrating on trying to understand what's happening in Libya. I'm leaving to you and the others to try to understand Syria. It seems to me hugely violent and probably very fragmented chaos in Syria. For all its shortcomings, the NTC was at least on the ground in Libya druing the war. I have grave doubts that the SNC is achieving very much except impeding a more united and effective rebel leadesrhip emrging from inside Syria,
The trouble is that as Arab Spring models go, it's also hugely chaotic in Egypt right now and Libya could also be about to go that way. We'll just have to hope that things settle down in Libya after the election.
21 June 2012 10:56AM
And thank you for your posts on Libya, they've been very informative.
21 June 2012 11:23AM
This is yet more proof that the so-called 'democratic West' are the biggest enemies of democracy- wherever nations have overwhelmingly chosen those who represent them, the West rejects the results, because it would not suit their agenda Mossadegh, Arbenz, Lamumba, Nkrumah, the FIS in Algeria....democratically elected by the people and for the people, but rejected by the West. In the Egyptian context, it's obvious why: because of 'poor little Israel'.
21 June 2012 11:24AM
If it's any comfort, the Libyan army is probably incapable of meddling in the same way as the Egyptian military.
21 June 2012 11:24AM
"The Egyptian people are different and not armed," Katatni, a 61-year-old microbiologist"
Hmm, what some people who say armed violence isn't a possibility in the current situation in Egypt seem to be forgetting is that right next door to Egypt is Libya, currently the world's leading wholesale supermarket for cut-price or even free weaponry of all descriptions. Some of it has already gone though Egypt to Gaza and Sinai. They may also be forgetting that the far eastern bit of Libya, around Derna, near to Egypt is also the base for an apparently growing armed Jihadist movement that already has training camps there etc.
21 June 2012 11:30AM
Hardly surprising. This delay will allow Scaf, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the Election Commission and the Administrative Court, more time to stuff a few ballot boxes and ensure that Scaf's preferred candidate is declared the winner. It seems that the people will have to move back to Tahrir Square.
21 June 2012 11:30AM
Clemency for the mass murderer then!
Doesn't suprise me at all! his uncle 'Rifat Al-Assad' who massacred +100K people in Hama alone lives peacefully in London/Paris.
Basically as long as your wife has a taste for the designer's shoes, wears vogue with Christian Louboutin heels then its Okay to massacre /dictate and then to fly with the millions and enjoy!
21 June 2012 11:33AM
@BrianWhit. Oh yes, I don't see the Libyan 'National Army' mounting a coup any time soon. It's hard to tell how much it really exists anyway beyond NTC and TG press releases. On a number of occasions it's been announced that the 'National Army; has done something, other sources suggested it was actually one of the militias doing it.
But it's certainly conceivable that different regional militias/regional authorities might be keen on hanging onto power within their own region. They've had 8 or 9 months to cement their power, and they might be distinctly unkeen on handing that (probably lucrative and no doubt generally fun) power back to some new government in Tripoli after the election. That could lead to muscle flexing before the election, and, who knows, maybe something more dramatic if a new government does seek to impose its power on the regions after the election.
21 June 2012 11:34AM
Syria loses contact with Mig-21 according to the Syrian state TV while opps say contact lost with jet fighter after it landed in Jordon.
This adds to the Misery of the Syrian forces who spent over 15 month trying to fight with 'few terrorists'.
21 June 2012 11:35AM
Syrian Rebels Captured With Israeli Weapons?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgznlLHb-44&feature=player_embedded
There is no doubt about it, these are Israeli weapons and munitions in the video, what's the deal with that, are Israel supplying arms to the FSA or is the video just a forgery? who knows?
CIA / Mossad Snipers in Syria and the Arab States?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-kjKVzJJtk&feature=related
I can't help but feel sorry for the guys pictured towards the end of the video, they are either innocent and in the wrong place at the wrong time or they really are captured spies, either way, what are they doing with flight cases of pump action shotguns in the middle of the Syrian protests? Is this video faked? who knows?
21 June 2012 11:42AM
The loss of one MiG-21 isn't in itself going to worry the regime (according to Wikipedia they probably have about 140 more). But the regime will be wondering how many more disloyal pilots it has got and what they might do with the aircraft. How much protection does Assad have from attacks by his own air force?
21 June 2012 11:44AM
Yes, the militias are likely to flex their muscles until politics becomes the only game in town -- which could be a long time.
21 June 2012 11:46AM
Typical reply from you take a comment out of context. Actually probably cleverer than you mate.
Ridiculous statement, you have no idea who I am or what my level of intelligence is.
And actually I was putting your comment IN context with all your other comments which generally take on the tone of rabid anti-Westernism. "Regime change" has been the publicly stated preference from Hague and Clinton for a long, long time now, they are not hiding it, they want Assad to go. Your suggestion that they are malevolently hiding this from the public is a nonsense.
21 June 2012 11:49AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeNv5XgUNPw&feature=plcp
Bombardment of Mosques in Homs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Quh6R4kX9Yw&feature=plcp
Homs old town under fire
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODpVqK4XYB8&feature=plcp
21 June 2012 11:50AM
I certainly hope there isn't a civil war in Egypt, but the argument that it can't happen because it's not happened before strikes me as somewhat optimistic.
21 June 2012 11:55AM
The last video was from Hama, the city was subjected to bombardment too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_51zGli4xY&feature=plcp
This is video showing bombardment on the city too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuMh3vyOFCI&feature=plcp
Homs Al-Khalydia, video showing the immense damage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szvIHBNOTiU&feature=plcp
AL-Rastan was subjected to bombardment.
These video's clearly show that the regime is increasing assults on revolt cities.
Their is bad situation in north of Syria generally/ Daraa/ Damascus suburbs and Deir Al-Zour.
21 June 2012 11:56AM
Great news! Always a joy seeing soldiers refusing to turn their guns on their own people. Let's hope this becomes a flood of defections.
21 June 2012 11:56AM
Reality check:
The most free and prosperous nations in the world are found in the west, all democracies (think on Norway, Canada, the Netherlands, Switzerland...). So it is quite a stretch to call these nations 'the biggest enemies of democracy'.
Furthermore, do some math. How many democratically elected governments have been overthrown by the west? Remember, there are many, many elections each year. This percentage has to be very, very small.
And then, to be honest about it, count the number of times a dictator is overthrown by the west and replaced by a democracy. Remember, Iraq and Afghanistan were both dictatorships before they were invaded by the US. Now they have elections...
21 June 2012 11:58AM
I don't get it. You're angry and blaming Assad.
Mosques, homes, villages, towns, cities, families, weddinds, schools and hospitals etc have been perpetually bombed by the US and other Western nations. Where is your 'revolution' in that regard? Where is your condemnation? Why are you not as willing to support armed resistance against *those* types of war crimes? In fact, why are you not out there, helping your Muslim brothers and sisters in lands such as Palestine, Somalia, Afghanistan etc etc? You're nothing but another fake, armchair co-called 'revolutionary'.
Can you therefore not see how your emotions are being manipulated and exploited by your very enemies who have caused you to feel such resentment not at them but at non-Western leaders? The desire is achieved with gullible people like you: divert their attention away from us and let them destroy themselves from within, and we'll do the finishing off, pretending it was to help them, when in actual fact they are the last people we'd ever want to help, only they are too stupid to realise it because they're so arrogant they actually think we care about them.
21 June 2012 12:00PM
@negativecamber
Ditto works both ways.
Of course they are, they won't say "regime change" publicly are they.
21 June 2012 12:01PM
More from the New York Time's on the C.I.A./Saudi Arabia/Turkey/Qatar axis and their gun running operation in Syria:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/21/world/middleeast/cia-said-to-aid-in-steering-arms-to-syrian-rebels.html?pagewanted=all
So it's beyond reasonable doubt now. The Washington Post have reported it, The Independent have reported it, The Daily Telegraph have reported it, and The New York Times have reported it. And all have based their stories on the claims of U.S. officials and sources within the Syrian opposition. It's not just a 'claim' or a 'conspiracy theory' put about by the Syrian regime or the Russians. It's actually happening.
These countries are now active participants in Syria's civil war, are fighting on the side of elements within the Syrian opposition, and are not just the hand wringing, 'concerned' bystanders that we're supposed to believe them to be.
The U.S. have allied themselves with brutal, repressive and human rights abusing regimes to . . . well, to do what? To further the cause of human rights and democracy in Syria?
t's got bells on it.
21 June 2012 12:01PM
Their is reports of Iranian air forces located around Syria.
of course such news is unoffical but its really interesting to see what occurrs next.
Most of the Air pilots (forces) in Syria are from families known for their loyalty to Assad.
developments in Damascus are encourging and Zero-Hour is giving the revolts a lot of hope
21 June 2012 12:01PM
You are the one taking things out of context here. The original comment of negative chamber is longer, and a substantive point follows, which you choose to ignore.
And that is a pattern. If someone is criticising you, you ignore the substantive criticism and go for the ad hominem, or more often a authority argument (I am cleverer than you, I worked in the military etc.).
21 June 2012 12:11PM
List of Massacre by Assad family.
Jisr al-Shughour massacre (1980)
Siege of Aleppo (1980)
1981 Hama massacre
Tadmor Prison massacre
Hama massacre
2012 Homs offensive
Houla massacre
Al-Buwaida al-Sharqiya massacre
Al-Qubair massacre
........................................
What are you ON ABOUT?!!
21 June 2012 12:30PM
Regime change becomes Political transition
Civilian casualties become Collateral damage
Body bags become Human remains pouches
The rich and powerful become The international Community...etc...etc...etc....
That's how I read Atvar48's comments and the point being made.
21 June 2012 12:35PM
According to Human Rights Watch, Iraq is now a 'budding Police state', where torture is rife and systematic, peaceful protesters are attacked and killed, and where 'security forces routinely abused journalists covering demonstrations, using threats, arbitrary arrests, beatings, and harassment, and confiscating or destroying their equipment'. U.S. forces also committed serious human rights violations against Iraqis in 2011.
And in Afghanistan, Karzai came to power on the back of an election widely believed to have been fraudulent. Meanwhile, his Police, military and security services 'routinely committed serious human rights violations. Arbitrary arrests and detentions continued, with systematic use of torture and other ill-treatment by the intelligence services', according to Amnesty International. HRW further document how 'Threats, violence, and intimidation are regularly used to silence opposition politicians, journalists, and civil society activists, particularly those who speak out about impunity, war crimes, government officials, or powerful local figures'.
So you can hint at Iraq and Afghanistan being 'democracies' if you like, but in my book, democracies don't systematically torture dissidents, attack the media, kill protesters, or rig elections. Nor do they, usually, cede a large part of their sovereignty and decision making apparatus to abusive occupying forces.
But again, this is just another example of you trying but struggling to conceal your support for the U.S.et al and their bloody, amoral, duplicitous war mongering.
21 June 2012 12:48PM
That report is presumably either from Syrian TV or Press TV, judging by their use of the description 'terrorists'? Not exactly the most reliable source, it has to be said.
Sorry, I haven't got sound on my PC at work, but I couldn't see anything on there that identified these people as CIA/Mossad?
21 June 2012 12:50PM
Indeed, but it's a long term process and is still preferable to the previous state of affairs. I imagine most Afghans would pick a corrupt Karzai administration over the insanity of the Taliban.
21 June 2012 12:55PM
Was there ever such a thing as the Libyan Army? Thought Gaddafi disbanded it ages ago for fear of military coup?
21 June 2012 12:58PM
Isn't it about time you got off the internet and picked up a rifle and took the fight to Assad? You're all mouth.
As for the defection of the Syrian pilot, Western media stations are going to have a field day with it. Any hint of weaknesses within the Syrian army/air force is jumped on and highlighted to the nth degree in an attempt to bolster moral amongst their darling rebel fighters. Just look at the picture of them in the live feed. They're one bandanna short of a terrorist cell.
21 June 2012 12:59PM
And special pleading like this is basically how the U.S. and their allies get away with systematic human rights abuses and repression on a large scale.
It's always 'the other guys were worse/you can't expect it to become Sweden overnight/Afghans, Iraqis and Libyans are much happier now/' etc. Just a litany of excuses.
Where as the abuses of Official Enemies are to be condemned as indefensibly horrific, and are seen as having no justification or mitigation at all - and rightly so - the same sadly isn't true for a lot of people when those doing the torturing, massacring and repressing are 'our sons of bitches'. Especially if they, in best Orwellian fashion. claim to be subverting democracy and abusing human rights in the name of 'promoting democracy' and 'protecting human rights'.
21 June 2012 1:05PM
Maybe Atvar48 can point us to the PressTV article on the Syrian fighter defection to Jordan. I'd like to see Iran's take on this, but they seem to missed this event!! LOL
21 June 2012 1:10PM
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21 June 2012 1:14PM
@James Nicolls
Could apply to a few posters here :)
21 June 2012 1:17PM
Unless we see a few squardrons defect don't think one plane is going to worry regime, though as some poster already said it will all over western media as a big story.