Lara Brown
Political scientist, Villanova University :
Former Gov. Pawlenty's biggest draw is that he, unlike Sen. Rob Portman, did not serve under President George W. Bush. For while Republicans are loathe to admit this fact because they like Bush personally and they appreciate all the many ways that he and members of his family have served the GOP over the decades, Bush did more damage to his party's reputation than good.
Republicans have spent the last three-and-a-half years since Bush left office working to re-brand the GOP as the "small government, balanced budget" party. Bush's combination of massive tax cuts, increased spending on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and marked growth in both federal authority (DHS and the security state) and government programs (NCLB and prescription drug benefit) was a toxic mixture for the Republicans' libertarian wing. Disgusted and dejected, they stopped identifying with the GOP in 2005 and they largely stayed away from the polls in 2006 and 2008.
If Republicans try to sweep these inconvenient facts under the rug, then Democrats do all they can to brightly shine the light on this history. There is no one President Obama would rather run against than George W. Bush. Not only was Obama successful doing that in 2008, but recent polling data indicates that Americans blame Bush for many of the problems we are digging out from today. Obama would be thrilled to exploit Sen. Portman's past in Bush's administration and in the Office of Management and Budget.
One can easily imagine Obama's line of attack:
"Portman helped Bush build this economy; you want to put him back in the Executive Branch? No! We're still trying to get out that ditch that Bush put us in. We just managed to get the tires changed. We're making progress going up the hill. But we've got a few more miles to go before we hit cruising speed. We can't afford to hand the wheel over to the reckless driver who drove us into the ditch in the first place."
So while Pawlenty's got his own drawbacks - Minnesota is not likely to be much of a battleground state and he wasn't much of a vote-getter in the primaries for either himself before he dropped out, or for Romney when he was working as his surrogate--he doesn't carry any of the baggage associated with Bush. Further, as a former governor, Pawlenty is a Washington outsider, which helps Romney double-down on the notion that he's going to the White House to be a turn-around artist because what "works" in Washington doesn't work. Portman's weaknesses are Pawlenty's strengths. Two solid Republicans, neither a perfect match.
While there is no way to know whom Romney will choose, odds are good that he'll pick whichever person he believes is less risky, not whichever person may be able the most help.
