Tobey on Securing Fissile Materials at Semipalatinsk
IPNT director William Tobey has published an article, in which he offers a riveting description of the joint U.S.-Russian-Kazakh efforts to secure weapons-useable materials left at a defunct Soviet underground nuclear test range in Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan.
Allison on Lessons of the Raid on Bin Laden’s Hideout
Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center and IPNT member, has published an article, in which he examines White House decision-making in the April 2011 raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan for lessons that can be applied to future foreign policy challenges.
Read more in the latest issue of the Initiative's newsletter >
FEATURED PUBLICATIONS
June 11, 2012
"The Special Senate Committee on Anti-terrorism"
By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project and Simon Saradzhyan, Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
On June 11, 2012, the Belfer Center's William Tobey, Matthew Bunn and Simon Saradzhyan testified before Canada's upper house of parliament, the Senate, on the threat of nuclear terrorism and strategies to combat it.
AP Photo
May 9, 2012
"Lugar's bipartisan spirit helped ensure U.S. security"
GlobalPost
By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School
CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts — Yesterday was a dark day for the United States. When Richard Lugar lost the Republican primary election, not only did Indiana lose its senator of 35 years, but the nation was deprived of one of its greatest champions of bipartisan leadership on issues of war and peace.
April 30, 2012
"What Lies Beneath"
Foreign Policy
By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
There's one fear that keeps leaders from across the globe awake at night: The prospect that somehow, somewhere, criminals or terrorists are getting their hands on the essential ingredients of a nuclear weapon. At the nuclear summit in South Korea last month, policymakers gathered to prevent that nightmare from becoming a reality by launching an initiative to secure all vulnerable nuclear stockpiles within four years. But despite the fanfare surrounding the summit, one of the greatest recent successes in this initiative has thus far remained buried -- both literally and figuratively.
AP Photo
March 26, 2012
"Can Seoul summit tackle biggest threat to US security – nuclear terrorism?"
Christian Science Monitor
By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School
Why did President Obama fly halfway around the world to Seoul, South Korea, for the second Nuclear Security Summit? What can the 50 world leaders who meet today and tomorrow plausibly accomplish? The answer is less than many observers hope – but more than skeptics appreciate.
(AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)
March 20, 2012
"U.S. and Russia Work Together Against Threat of Nuclear Terrorism"
GlobalPost
By Kevin Ryan, Executive Director for Research, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and The Elbe Group
The Elbe Group, former leaders of American and Russian intelligence and military organizations, write that the nuclear security summit in Seoul provides an important opportunity to reaffirm U.S. and Russian leadership against the deadly menace of nuclear terrorism — a threat that combines the Cold War peril of nuclear holocaust and the 21st century danger of international terrorism. Kevin Ryan joined other Elbe Group members in writing this oped.
AP Photo/Douglas Birch
December 29, 2011
"Washington Can Work: Celebrating Twenty Years With Zero Nuclear Terrorism"
The Huffington Post
By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School
As Washington antics undermine our confidence in government, it is instructive to think back 20 years to challenges a President and Congress faced in December, 1991. President George H. W. Bush was finishing the 3rd year of his first term, exhausted by the international avalanche that began shortly after he took office. First the Berlin Wall came down, the Warsaw Pact disintegrated, Saddam invaded Kuwait, and the President mobilized 500,000 American troops to lead a coalition to victory in Desert Storm. A year before he would stand for reelection, the U.S. economy was in recession and the Soviet Union was on the brink of collapse. President Bush and his key advisors wanted nothing more than to get out of town for a well-deserved vacation break.
AP Photo
January/ February 2012
"Nuclear Scientists as Assassination Targets"
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, issue 1, volume 68
By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Since 2007, international media have reported the violent deaths of four scientists and engineers connected with Iran’s nuclear program and an attempt on the life of a fifth. The news reports on such killings are murky, incomplete, and, in some instances, likely inaccurate...
October 2011
Russia and U.S. National Interests: Why Should Americans Care?
By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School, Robert D. Blackwill, International Council Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Dimitri K. Simes and Paul J. Saunders
"Two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union and Russia’s emergence as an independent state, Moscow is no longer America’s strategic rival. Yet, while Russia is not our enemy, neither has it become a friend. Washington and Moscow have succeeded in overcoming Cold War confrontation, but have not developed sustainable cooperative relations. A better-managed bilateral relationship is critical for the advancement of America’s vital national interests."
AP Photo
March 2012
What Happened to the Soviet Superpower’s Nuclear Arsenal? Clues for the Nuclear Security Summit
By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School
Twenty years ago Russia and fourteen other newly-independent states emerged from the ruins of the Soviet empire, many as nations for the first time in history. As is typical in the aftermath of the collapse of an empire, this was followed by a period of chaos, confusion, and corruption. As the saying went at the time, “everything is for sale.” At that same moment, as the Soviet state imploded, 35,000 nuclear weapons remained at thousands of sites across a vast Eurasian landmass that stretched across eleven time zones.
Today, fourteen of the fifteen successor states to the Soviet Union are nuclear weapons-free. This paper will address the question: how did this happen? Looking ahead, it will consider what clues we can extract from the success in denuclearizing fourteen post-Soviet states that can inform our non-proliferation and nuclear security efforts in the future. These clues may inform leaders of the U.S., Russia, and other responsible nations attending the Seoul Nuclear Security Summit on March 26-27, 2012. The paper will conclude with specific recommendations, some exceedingly ambitious that world leaders could follow to build on the Seoul summit’s achievements against nuclear terrorism in the period before the next summit in 2014. One of these would be to establish a Global Alliance Against Nuclear Terrorism.
AP Photo
September 16, 2011
"Preventing the Next Fukushima"
Science, volume 333
By Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project and Olli Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"If nuclear power is to grow on the scale required to be a significant part of the solution to global climate disruption or scarcity of fossil fuels, major steps are needed to rebuild confidence that nuclear facilities will be safe from accidents and secure against attacks."
AP Photo
July 26, 2010
"The Armageddon Test: To Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, Follow the Uranium"
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"While the total amount of material that has been recovered and publicly disclosed is not sufficient to make a nuclear weapon, the matter is deadly serious. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, none of the recovered nuclear material was reported missing by its owners. Incredibly, none of these cases has been sufficiently investigated to determine the origin, destination, and all those responsible for the theft of the material."
June 6, 2011
The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment of Nuclear Terrorism
By Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project, Yuri Morozov, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Simon Saradzhyan, Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Viktor I. Yesin and Pavel S. Zolotarev
Researchers from the United States and Russia have issued a joint assessment of the global threat of nuclear terrorism, warning of a persistent danger that terrorists could obtain or make a nuclear device and use it with catastrophic consequences. The first joint threat assessment by experts from the world’s two major nuclear powers concludes: “If current approaches toward eliminating the threat are not replaced with a sense of urgency and resolve, the question will become not if but when, and on what scale, the first act of nuclear terrorism occurs.”
Cover design by Tim Duffy
January 2011
Islam and the Bomb
By Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
We can not exclude the possibility of nuclear terrorism. It is not tomorrow's threat; it is with us here today. The game changing impact of a single mushroom cloud could destabilize the world order and raise fundamental doubts about the ability of governments to continue to provide security for their people.
Spring/Summer 2011
"Preventing the Unthinkable"
Journal of International Security Affairs, issue 20
By Kevin Ryan, Executive Director for Research, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
During the Cold War, the threat of a nuclear attack came mainly from the U.S.-Russian nuclear arsenals, writes Kevin Ryan. Today, however, the United States and Russia have been forced to adapt to a new nuclear threat—that of dedicated terrorists with money and technological access who seek to obtain and use a nuclear device.
AP Photo
March 3, 2011
"Keep Up the Pace of Locking Down the Bomb"
The Huffington Post
By Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project and William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"The WikiLeaks cables reveal an episode in which officials in Yemen — home of al Qaeda's most active regional branch — warned that a deadly radioactive source was sitting in building whose only guard had left and whose sole security camera had long been broken. These programs provide the practical means to deal with such threats."
February 11, 2011
"US and Russian Intelligence Cooperation during the Yeltsin Years"
By Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"Over the years, cooperation between the US and Russia has waxed and waned. Trust has come and gone. As we look to the future to find new ways of strengthening this enigmatic relationship, we should draw on propitious times in the past, when Russians and Americans managed to bridge the divide – most notably, during world war two. History once again favors a genuine partnership between our two nations. Today, there is more that unites us than divides us. We confront common threats of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, and the challenges of globalization and an interconnected world. The question is: will we have the courage to do the right thing?"
AP Photo/IntelCenter
November 12, 2010
Al Qaeda's Religious Justification of Nuclear Terrorism
By Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"...Bin Laden would develop an idea that would breathe life back into Zawahiri's dreams: the United States must become the target of the jihad. If the Americans could be provoked into war, they could be defeated like the Soviets, and expelled from Muslim lands for good. The fall of the U.S. superpower would lead to the overthrow of secular Arab states. This insight led to successive Al Qaeda strikes against the U.S., including the unsuccessful bombing of the World Trade Center (1993), bombings of two U.S. embassies in East Africa (1998), and the bombing of the USS Cole (2000). It was not evident at the time, but the road to 9/11 began on the day Al Qaeda was formed."
AP Images
September 9, 2010
"Nine Years After 9/11: Keeping America Safe"
The Huffington Post
By Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"In order to achieve success, the intelligence leadership must ensure that every officer in the community understands that the DNI is here to stay, and that the FBI requires their full support. Internal dissonance and institutional rivalries are the surest ways to leave holes in our nation's defenses."
March 25, 2010
"Global Partnership Requires Fresh Ideas"
"considering its current economic, technological and intellectual potential, Russia could, and should, change its role and place in the ‘Global Partnership' and transition from the category of recipient to donor, all the more because a decision about expanding the membership in that international forum will be made in the near future."
AP Photo
December 23, 2010
"Russia's North Caucasus, The Terrorism Revival"
International Relations and Security Network
By Simon Saradzhyan, Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Terrorism has recently staged a deadly comeback in Russia after a lull of several years, writes Belfer Center fellow Simon Saradzhyan. "Escalatory logic and rivalry among leaders of the North Caucasus-based terrorist networks combined with landmark events planned in Russia and the dynamics of violence in the greater Middle East may fuel further spikes in organized political violence..."
AP Photo
April 10, 2010
"Nuclear Security"
International Herald Tribune
By Mohamed ElBaradei, Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School and Ernesto Zedillo
The 47 heads of state who will assemble in Washington next week for the world's first Nuclear Security Summit should focus like a laser beam on the biggest potential threat to civilization.
AP Images
April 14, 2010
"Relentless Focus Needed to Fight Nuclear Terror"
AOL News
By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"Obama demanded the attention of world leaders to this critical issue by bringing them to Washington, but the success of his summit will depend on how they respond after they return home."
AP Images
April 21, 2010
"Building a Strategic U.S.- Pakistan Nuclear Relationship"
CTC Sentinel, issue 4, volume 3
By Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"The United States and Pakistan recently initiated a promising series of high level talks to develop a strategic relationship between the two countries. Even in pursuit of such an expanded bilateral agenda, however, lowering the risks associated with Pakistan's nuclear weapons must stand at the top of the list of priorities."
Spring 2011
"Q & A: Rolf Mowatt-Larssen"
Belfer Center Newsletter
By Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
After more than two decades in intelligence with the CIA and U.S. Department of Energy, Rolf MowattLarssen is now a senior fellow at the Belfer Center focusing on nuclear terrorism, domestic security, and al Qaeda’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) ambitions. His most recent research report is titled “Al Qaeda’s Religious Justification of Nuclear Terrorism,” a follow-up to his timeline of al Qaeda’s quest to acquire WMD. We asked Mowatt-Larssen to share his views on al Qaeda's intent and justification for terrorism and to reflect on American life post 9/11 and the future of global intelligence.
