George Zimmerman case could hit 2012 presidential race

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George Zimmerman and the White House are shown.

Legal experts and political consultants disagree over what the trial could mean.

Could George Zimmerman be the October surprise?

Depending on the timing of legal developments in Florida, the court proceedings and possible trial of Trayvon Martin’s killer - one of the highest-profile and most racially charged cases in years - could be thrust into the middle of the 2012 presidential election.

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Martin's parents testify on Hill

Obama on Martin case

“If the judge were to rule in the pre-trial that Zimmerman has a legitimate claim in the ‘Stand Your Ground’ law defense and was as a result released, I think that could have national impact and as a result it could bleed into the political system,” Dan Abrams, legal analyst and founder of Mediaite, told POLITICO. Or, he added, “If there is an acquittal … I think that it could have national political implications, because at that point I think both [Mitt] Romney and [President Barack] Obama could be asked to comment on it.”

(Also on POLITICO: No gun-control debate over Trayvon)

In recent press appearances, Zimmerman’s attorney, Mark O’Mara, predicted that it would be at least six months and possibly as long as a year before his client faces a trial. The short end of that would put the case smack in the homestretch of the White House contest, while the long end would make the trial a non-factor in the presidential contest.

But there’s another scenario that makes it more likely that the case could play into the 2012 race.

Under the so-called “Stand Your Ground” law in Florida — the controversial measure that until this week had allowed Zimmerman to avoid an arrest after the Feb.26 shooting in Sanford – the accused can ask for an “evidentiary hearing” to try to have their case tossed out. That hearing could take place within a matter of months.

This hearing has been described as a “mini trial” and it would allow Zimmerman the chance to testify, as well as evidence to be presented by both sides. The setting provides the defense an opportunity to show that Zimmerman had acted in self-defense. If the judge agrees, the case can be dismissed without a trial and a potential bomb could be thrown into the presidential race, likely prompting differing reactions from the white and African-American communities (polling shows a sharp racial divide in how the case is viewed) and forcing the candidates to react.

One Florida defense attorney told The Associated Press that he believes there is a “high likelihood” of such an outcome, as he predicted that there could be no trial at all.

Lenny McAllister, a Republican commentator who speaks frequently about the intersection of race and politics, said there is no doubt that the Zimmerman case will continue to shape the country’s political dialogue as Election Day draws closer.

“If the Zimmerman trail comes up around October, November, it can be both very impactful and in some ways very explosive,” said McAllister, a senior contributor to Politic365. “This case runs the risk of rivaling the OJ Simpson trial in regards to how it impacts America along racial lines. It does have the possibility – the tragic possibility — of casting its shadow on this presidential race.”

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