Economic confidence has fallen to its lowest level since the eve of the financial crash in 2008, though Labour is still losing out in the blame game, according to a Guardian/ICM poll.
The poll found that 57% of voters are not confident about the state of the economy. This compares with 42% of voters who report confidence in the economy, their own finances and their ability to meet living costs. The gap between these two figures produces a net confidence index of -15 points – the lowest since July 2008, two months before the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered the global financial crisis. ICM has measured financial confidence 25 times since 2001, and that July 2008 poll was the only other time confidence was lower.
But Labour is struggling to capitalise on the economic unease. When asked what explains the latest slowdown 30% continue to blame debts racked up by the last Labour government; only 24% blame the coalition's spending cuts.
More respondents blamed Labour's debts than the coalition's cuts. Photograph: guardian.co.uk
On Monday David Cameron admitted he had underestimated the scale of Britain's debt crisis and said the recovery would take longer than the chancellor had predicted last year. In a speech to the CBI's annual conference, the prime minister said: "Getting debt under control is proving harder than anyone envisaged. High levels of public and private debt are proving to be a drag on growth, which in turn makes it more difficult to deal with those debts but this also undermines further the case for adding to the national burden of debt with even more borrowing."
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to downgrade its forecast again next week when George Osborne delivers his autumn statement. The OBR is also expected to say that the recession was caused by such a serious financial crisis that some of the slow growth over the past year is "structural" – that the slowdown has created a bigger dent in the economy than had been feared. Cameron indicated he expects the OBR to say that Britain's structural deficit has grown, possibly by as much as £12bn, when he spoke of the challenge of recovering from a financial crisis. "We are recovering from a debt crisis, not a traditional recession."
ICM economy tracker. Photograph: Guardian
He later chaired a meeting of the "quad" – the senior group of ministers including George Osborne, Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander – before next Tuesday's autumn statement.
The meeting is understood to have broken up without reaching agreement on liberalising unfair-dismissal laws, leading to a delay in an announcement that was expected on Wednesday. Cameron signalled there would be a change, though he indicated that the government was not accepting proposals by the venture capitalist Adrian Beecroft to make it easier for employers to sack workers.
Voting intentions. Photograph: Guardian
In the monthly Guardian/ICM state of the parties poll, Labour remains ahead on 38%, but has slipped back by one point. The Conservatives are up one point to 36% and the Liberal Democrats up one point to 14%.
In July 2008, the last time economic confidence was so low, the FTSE dipped into bear territory, America's mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tottered, while the British Chambers of Commerce warned of imminent UK recession. A deep slump was soon confirmed, but as the banks were bailed out and interest rates were slashed, the confidence index recovered quickly to register several positive scores during 2009 and 2010.
Over 2011 confidence has once again ebbed away, and during the last month – as the Bank of England cut growth forecasts and unemployment hit a 17-year high – the ICM index declined by another two points. This suggests a "double dip" in economic confidence. The new gloom afflicts all parts of the country, but there are signs that it is afflicting the vulnerable more. Fully 60% of pensioners say they are not confident, and this figure rises to 68% for respondents of all age groups in the least affluent DE social class.
The polling suggests the Tories have made little headway in trying to point the finger of economic blame towards Europe – only 18% of the public blame the new slowdown on chill winds from the eurozone, as against 19% who say banks that refuse to lend are the biggest problem.
Most look to Westminster as the source of the problem – 54% blame either Labour's debts or the coalition's cuts. The 30%-24% split against Labour among these respondents will encourage Vince Cable, who has parted company with the Tories by attributing the new slowdown to the coalition's domestic inheritance, as opposed to the debt crisis gripping the continent.
Voters are split on whether the chancellor should stick with his plan A to eliminate the structural deficit over the course of this parliament or instead to slow the pace. While 46% of respondents suggest "George Osborne needs to slow the course of cuts which are coming too thick and too fast", in the face of joblessness and stagnation, some 44% say that with the eurozone crisis it is more important than ever that he sticks to his plan to cut the deficit.
Osborne will be pleased to learn that freezing or reducing fuel duties is the most popular option he could pursue, identified by 41% of respondents as a good way to "help families and boost the economy". Close behind is a programme of public works to create jobs, preferred by 35%. An emergency VAT cut, the alternative most energetically promoted by Labour, is some way behind being preferred by just 24%, underlining the opposition's difficulties in cutting through on the economy.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1005 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 18-20th November 2011. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Comments
21 November 2011 7:02PM
Ha ha ha.
Milliband the Useless.
Of course they blame Labour, there's no opposition to contradict them.
21 November 2011 7:02PM
Everyone knows we are fucked, but we don't know why.
21 November 2011 7:03PM
Labour's Love Lost?
21 November 2011 7:03PM
They didn't ask me ! This lastet downturn is 100% of the ConDem's making, it will be far worse than the one in 2008/09.
21 November 2011 7:04PM
It is Labour's fault. They attempted to solve a debt crisis by spending more money that doesn't exist.
21 November 2011 7:05PM
Anyone who thinks that, after 13 years of Labour, the UK's problems began in May of last year is an idiot.
21 November 2011 7:05PM
Pat Sharpe
21 November 2011 7:05PM
Well, the blame game is what it is all about. Tragically. Mainly because nobody who should will ever take responsibility.
Reduced to survey answers and sound bites. Haven't we all grown up so well.
21 November 2011 7:06PM
Read Andrew Rawnsley's excellent book ' The end of the party' for a full and horrifying account of the chaotic end of Blair's mendacious reign and the truly catastrophic Brown premiership.
You'll never trust the b*stards again...
21 November 2011 7:06PM
Well after CallMeDave's announcement on housing today, if I still had a house in the UK it would suddenly be worth a few more thousand, and those wishing to get on the housing ladder would be a fd as they have been for years and years.
Your caring sharing Tories, eh?
21 November 2011 7:06PM
DICTATORSHIP NOW!
(With me in charge obviously)
21 November 2011 7:07PM
Yep - that's what happens when you have a PR man as PM and no leader of the opposition for those crucial first months.
Don't think I've heard a Tory (or LibDem) ever complete a sentence without the words "this mess we inherited from Labour".
But would the Tories also have bailed out the banks in the same way? yes.
21 November 2011 7:07PM
Of course they're to blame.
A more thieving, murderous bunch of traitors would be hard to imagine.
The only good thing they did was to make sure that Labour will never get re-elected.
All we have now is to make sure that their partners in crime, the Conservatives, don't get back in either.,
Between them they are ruining the country and maybe, just maybe, the electorate will put MPs into Westminster who are worthy of the name and put their constituents and country first and not their party or themselves.
21 November 2011 7:07PM
And no blames the banking crisis for the massive increase in public debt? Or was that not an option in this poll?
Of course, Georgie boy's plans were so much better...
21 November 2011 7:07PM
What, like the 7 billion the Government is dropping on Duncan Smiths' folly, the Work Programme, which will produce worse results than if it didn't exist!
http://www.smf.co.uk/governments-flagship-back-to-work-programme-at-risk-of-financial-collapse-says-think-tank.html
Brilliant use of scarce resources by the coalition there, eh?
21 November 2011 7:08PM
Given that is so much lazy journalism on the mainstream media is this any surprise? If members of the coalition are continually, and uncritically, allowed to blame the previous government for the 'state we are in' then what do you imagine people will tend to think? Nicky Campbell was at it again today this morning. It was refreshing to hear Ed Balls turn aggressively against him. This needs to be happening more often.
21 November 2011 7:08PM
Both certainly had their parts to play.
21 November 2011 7:08PM
Too late, Bob Diamond beat you to it.
21 November 2011 7:09PM
The problems started escalating in 1979. Since then we have had right-wing governments all with the same idiotic doctrine that was always destined to go tits up. Comparing which government sent it more tits up than the other is for those with more time on their hands than is good for them.
21 November 2011 7:09PM
Where exactly on this questionnaire is "US Sub-prime mortgage debts collapse". People don't know jack about this, you may as well be asking them to explain a nuclear reactor.
21 November 2011 7:09PM
When a pie chart looks like that it means everyone doesn't know.
Was the sample taken in Whitehall?
21 November 2011 7:09PM
The ConDems ridiculed the Labour Government for blaming international economic woes for the recession, yet have spent the last several months blaming the current poor performance of the economy on the Eurozone crisis.
It is odd that in the survey, people are still blaming the previous government, whereas in the US, Bush has been forgotten and Obama is getting all the criticism.
Whatever the reason, if Ed Milliband doesn't sort it out quick, he will soon become the Labour equivalent of IDS.
21 November 2011 7:09PM
This is so right.
Me being a total Labour man all me life - I wouldnt vote for that shower of muppets for a long while.
How on earth can they vote Ed Miliband in as leader beats me - dont they realise he is unelectable? A bit like the bunch of no-marks that the Torries had as leaders before Cameron came on board. The Brits will not vote for a geek to run the country.
We all know - and we aint fooled - that Labour let the economy steam itself into a mess - they lost their roots - and cosied up to the bankers and other pseudo professionals. They took their eye off the ball big time - and the mess is largely Gordie Brown's fault.
I will never voteTory - i would rather be covered in chocolate and be eaten by ants - but I have more confidence that they can sort out this mess than the Ed losers.
21 November 2011 7:10PM
That's a terrible photo of Miliband. Did you choose it on purpose? Makes him look like a Wallace and Gromit figure.
21 November 2011 7:12PM
Let's call this poll the stupidity of the general public.
Labour, Tories, Lib Dems the lot of them are Neoliberals. No difference for the last 36 years.
Should of been a question on the poll do you know what neoliberalism is ??? That would have thrown them for sure.
Divide and rule working as well today as it did 100 years ago.
21 November 2011 7:12PM
People are so gullible. Blaming Labour for what's happened, and not the banks, then saying they prefer Labour economic policies to those of this government... and the Tories have no plans to cut the deficit, merely to enact their agenda. What will those people say when the Tories have made the deficit bigger than ever?
21 November 2011 7:12PM
Why wasn't one of the options for the first part "bailing out the banks" ?
Tory cuts and Labour debts can all be attributed to that. Also had roles been reversed the Tories would have bailed out the banks and Labour would have cut.
Also its clear to all that the banks call the shots and democracy in the west is a completely bought out sham anyway.
Corporatism Rules U.K.
21 November 2011 7:12PM
Firstly this headline could be no change in ICM poll. Secondly 30 percent of voters blame Labour is probably just the Tory base vote so nothing to worry about there. Finally the ICM methodology is odd and one result of this is it favours the lib dems. If you correct for that it looks very much like the last set of you gov polls.
Headline should have said latest ICM poll nothing to see here
21 November 2011 7:12PM
Who says PR don't work? This report shows that the government PR has done a good job: 30% blame Labour, which is what the government has been drumming into our heads since they arrived; and 18% blaming the Eurozone? Recently, the government PR has been drumming that, also, into our heads. Of course, we are intelligent people, and it would be insulting to dare suggest that we are gullible.
21 November 2011 7:12PM
How would things be any different under Labour?
Public aren't naive enough to think that 1997-2010 was period of fantastic economic management that only ended with a change of government. Brown was a disaster.
Ed M is not a competent leader - in principle he's shooting at open goal, but his outright refusal to name a cut* he approves of is insulting. He will never be PM.
Most people recognise that given the magnitude of the crash (and the impending collapse of the EU/Euro) 'more of the same' isn't an option. Cuts* have to be made.
As it stands, Tories are free to do what they want in the absence of an effective/credible opposition.
The reality is that they're taking the easy way out and inflating away the debt, because that is politically more acceptable.
*not actually seen any real reduction in Government spending yet. Nothing has been 'cut' overall - quite the opposite.
21 November 2011 7:12PM
Do you have who they blame for the economic gloom broken down by voting intentions?
21 November 2011 7:13PM
It really doesn't matter who caused it - what matters is who can fix it. Certainly not the current bunch incumbents.
21 November 2011 7:13PM
Not only New Labour but the parliamentary Left internationally, when in govt, have sought to sustain Capitalism rather than break with it. It is right and proper that they take the blame for this.
21 November 2011 7:13PM
I rightly blame the Tories and the Lib Dems since getting into power and completely making an incompetent hash of things.
First taking us into stagnation and then recession.
I also blame Cameron, Blair, Major and Thatcher, Reagan, Bush Snr and Bush Jnr for ushering in and keeping going 30 years of neo-Con ghost GDP growth in the West that has fallen apart with the worst Depression since the 1930s and the worst bust since 1929.
I don't read the the right wing press, that's why I am telling the truth and not listening to Right wing lies.
---
The polls do not state the blame by the way.
Current average polls
Con 35
Lab 40
Fib Dems 10
Great to see that if there was an election tomorrow Labour would be back in with a 50+ majority, the coalition would be at an end and the shockingly awful Clegg and Lib Dem leadership would be gone, drowned in their own hubris for supporting this current government of minority greed and majority austerity.
21 November 2011 7:13PM
It's correct to shove a lot of blame on new labour, but the problem is that the coalition are actually even worse.
Only difference between lab/lib/con on the economy is in how quickly they are destroying it.
21 November 2011 7:14PM
It is quite disturbing how ignorant people are. The real answer is that we're in a continuation of the problems caused by a massive credit/housing bubble. The increase in government debt is a by-product of the previous government basing its spending projections on the basis of the boom lasting indefinitely. The other two parties had identical plans for not decreasing the national debt at the 2005 election (The Lib Dems wanted to increase tax and spending), so in reality neither are in a position to blame the previous administration. All three parties failed to understand the problems being created by the financial services industry despite the obvious evidence of unsustainably rocketing house prices.
The question of how fast we should be cutting is yet to be fully answered. However, we should never stop pointing out that it was the City and their friends in parliament that caused this disaster.
21 November 2011 7:14PM
When you report on surveys, please report the actual questions and the answers, rather than just an interpretation of your reading of the results. Or a clear link. Survey respondents can be influenced by the questions; it would be good if we could assess how we might be influenced. For example, I would struggle to put my blame in any of the sections of the first graphic.
21 November 2011 7:14PM
With 90% of the press in the Tory camp, plus the BBC's Nick Robinson, it's called propaganda - and people swallow it every time.
I'm not a great fan of Gordon Brown, but doesn't he now look like an economic giant on the world stage compared with pygmy Osborne?
21 November 2011 7:15PM
Didn't understand your comment - you really think George Osborne is a better chancellor than Ed Balls would be?
21 November 2011 7:15PM
"Blame Game"? Not one word about those rogue shysters the casino banksters?
...They must be wetting themselves laughing at our utter gullibility - whilst awarding themselves another million pound bonus that is.
21 November 2011 7:15PM
The Canadians & Australians saw this coming and maintained the deposit to loan ratios and have the strongest banks in the western world today.Why the hell didn't our so called leaders do the same.They were warned that this roller coaster of money was not sustainable !!!
21 November 2011 7:16PM
Agree with first sentence, but careful, second sentence makes you sound like David Cameron. Maybe PR-boy is getting to you?
21 November 2011 7:16PM
No surprise given that a largely right wing media shoves the same Tory lies down people's throats.
21 November 2011 7:16PM
They may want to pretend, but they are not completely blameless, are they?
Ask Blair where he got his millions to create shell companies.
21 November 2011 7:16PM
I agree. Its the slavish following of Neoliberal dogma by both the conservative and New Labour political parties that have got into this mess.
They are as bad as each other. They both represent the same interests and that isn't the majority of this country.
21 November 2011 7:17PM
I am taken recomends as assent.
And so my children.
We face rough times. Sacrifices must be made - especially if I am to fulfill our nations great ambition of building a three hundred foot statue of a mermaid with enormous breasts. Breast made out of solid gold. Nine carat gold.
Bwah ha ha ha ha...
21 November 2011 7:18PM
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21 November 2011 7:18PM
Well, you're right about Labour because they're in thrall of the banks too.
However, I do have to tell you that there are cuts. I believe what you're saying is that expenditure hasn't been cut overall - which is quite right, because the Tories haven't quite cottoned on that cutting the income of the poorest has fuck all effect, and throwing folks out of work just sticks them on benefits.
With the money announced/wasted today, the Tories could have gone some way to providing thousands upon thousands of jobs and thousands of decent council houses. But they are hamstrung by their own "free market" bollocks, so have just handed a whopping subsidy to those who already own their own house.
Idiots.
21 November 2011 7:18PM
Spot on
21 November 2011 7:18PM
Thats the problem. No-one knows who to turn to.
The tories will remain tories, but they're a minority.
Many labour voters are disillusioned with their own party, lib dem (incl. me) voters are seething.
Theres a big electoral gap for someone/somepeople to fill.
I'll vote green, even though under the current system my vote will mean nothing.