as the prospect of a full-blown constitutional crisis between London and Edinburgh looms. Alex Salmond was on the Today programme earlier and he flatly rejected the UK government's claim that the Scottish parliament does not currently have the power to call a referendum.
We've got the first PMQs of 2012 and David Cameron will be at the dispatch boxThere's certainly a difference of view. The UK government has suddenly come up with one view. But if you take for example the leading textbook of Scottish constitutional law - that's Law and Practice, Himsworth and Neil - it says such a bill, in other words a consultative referendum, would almost certainly be within the Scottish parliament's powers. So there's a great deal of legal opinion that says the Scottish parliament can bring forward a consultative referendum.
Alistair Darling, the former Labour chancellor, was on the programme too. He told Jim Naughtie that he would play his part in an anti-independence campaign and that it was "important for people to be prepared to work with Liberals and Conservatives". This prompted a rare Naughtie tweet.
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alistair darling putting himself firmly in the frontline of a referendum campaign...a notable move #r4today
I'll post more from the Salmond and Darling interviews shortly.
Otherwise, here's the agenda for the day.
10am: The Leveson inquiry resumes. Peter Wright, editor of the Mail on Sunday, and Liz Hartley, head of editorial legal services at Associated Newspapers, are giving evidence.
10.30am: Michael Gove, the education secretary, gives a speech on technology in schools. As Jeevan Vasagar reports in the Guardian, he will say that the existing curriculum in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has left children "bored out of their minds being taught how to use Word and Excel by bored teachers".
12pm: David Cameron and Ed Miliband clash at PMQs.
2.15pm: George Osborne, the chancellor, gives evidence to the Commons Treasury committee on banking reform.
As usual, I'll be covering all the breaking political news, as well as looking at the papers and bringing you the best politics from the web. I'll post a lunchtime summary at around 1pm and another in the afternoon.
If you want to follow me on Twitter, I'm on @AndrewSparrow.
And if you're a hardcore fan, you can follow @gdnpoliticslive. It's an automated feed that tweets the start of every new post that I put on the blog.
![Alex Salmond](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/web/20120112123900im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2012/1/10/1326230374156/Alex-Salmond-002.jpg)
• Salmond said that the Scottish parliament "almost certainly" has the power to hold a referendum on indendence without Westminster passing new legislation.
• He said David Cameron's tactics would increase support for the SNP. Cameron's comments about a referendum on his interview on the Andrew Marr show prompted an "incredibly adverse reaction", Salmond said.
I think it's going to increase support for independence and the SNP, I thought his intervention at the weekend was almost Thatcher-esque in its nature, you know, the idea that London knows best and that he's really operating in our best interests but wanted to set the ground rules for our referendum despite the fact that he's got no mandate whatsoever for doing so.
• He said that he thought the UK government and the Scottish government could reach a deal on the terms of a referendum.
As long as it's recognised that the mandate for the Scottish parliament to organise and hold the referendum, it must be a referendum built in Scotland and decided by the Scottish people, as long as that's recognised I'm sure that politicians north and south of the border are capable of coming to an agreement at some time this year on the ground rules for such a poll.
• He said that having a straight yes/no independence question, and excluding a further devolution option (so-called devo max), would be "very strange".
There's a lot of opinion in Scotland, according to some opinion polls, huge opinion and support for what's called devo max ... I just don't think it's right and proper at this stage before people have had a consultation on the referendum question or questions for the UK government to start ruling that out.
• He denied that he wanted devo max on the ballot paper because he feared Scotland would vote against independence. "That's not a fair characterisation of our position," he said. "I've said what is our sine qua non for us on the ballot paper ... I'm putting forward the view that that [a choice on independence] will certainly be on the ballot paper."
• He denied that he was wriggling. "I think your listeners across these islands will not associate the words Alex Salmond and wriggling very closely together," he said.
![Alistair Darling says the European financial crisis could spell the break-up of the euro](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/web/20120112123900im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2011/11/9/1320838847058/Alistair-Darling-says-the-002.jpg)
• Darling said Alex Salmond wanted to delay the referendum until 2014 because he was "playing for time". The referendum should be sooner rather than later, Darling said. By setting 2014 as his preferred date for the referendum, Salmond has already shifted his position, Darling claimed. "One of the good things to come out of this week is that he has had to move from 2015 to 2014."
• He said Salmond still had not answered fundamental questions about how independence would work. For example, "would we be going into the euro with all strictures that they are now going to visit on members? How much debt will we have?"
• Darling said the referendum campaign should not be seen as a battle between the Tory government in London and the SNP government in Edinburgh.
• He stressed the need for the pro-union parties to work together in the campaign against independence.
What I am saying is it is important for people to be prepared to work with Liberals and Conservatives. It is important we fight this thing together. This campaign will only be won if it is fought in Scotland by people who have got Scotland's best interests at heart.
• He played down the idea that he would play a leading role in the anti-independence campaign. Although he said he would "play his part", he said Naughtie was "jumping the gun" when he raised the idea of Darling being at the forefront of the campaign.
This answer does not seem to have stopped a "Darling should lead the no campaign" movement starting on Twitter.
Here's the Daily Mirror's Kevin Maguire.
Alistair Darling sounds as if he's auditioning on R4 for leadership of anti-Scottish independence campaign
Here's the Guardian's Patrick Wintour.
Osborne needs to get out of the road on scotland and leave it to Darling: no time for an English novice.
Here's Iain Martin.
Alistair Darling proving v good in appearances on independence, Scotland etc. Has the measure of Salmond.
the latest YouGov GB polling figures.
For the record, here areLabour: 40% (up 10 points since the general election)
Conservartives: 40% (up 3)
Lib Dems: 10% (down 14)
Government approval: -18
My colleague Paul Owen is covering Michael Gove's speech about computing and IT in schools on a live blog. On the blog, there will also be a Q&A with experts on how teachers can use new technology to improve their teaching in various subjects.
![Michael Moore, Liberal Democrat spokesman on international development](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/web/20120112123900im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pixies/2010/03/12/moore2.jpg)
On the Today programme Alex Salmond was talking up the case for including "devo max" in the independence referendum. But, in a separate radio interview, Michael Moore (left), the Scottish secretary, said that it was not clear what this meant.
Devo max is a brand without a product, it's a concept we should get more powers and I think it is entirely legitimate to debate whether or not we should have more powers. I am actually piloting through the members of parliament at the moment the biggest transfer of powers to Scotland since the Act of Union ... We can't have ill defined ideas which no one quite understands what they mean on a ballot box that gives a mandiate for discussions nobody is quite clear on.
![Grant Shapps](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/web/20120112123900im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2012/1/9/1326133589361/Grant-Shapps-002.jpg)
The full details are in a news release on the Department for Communities website. Here's an extract.
Grant Shapps (left), the housing minister, has announced today that people who sublet council homes could face up to two years in jail.
The Minister set out proposals to criminalise the abuse of social homes - such as unlawful subletting and key-selling - with a possible two year jail sentence. He said the plans could free up thousands of homes for housing waiting lists.Tenancy cheats can earn thousands of pounds a year renting their social homes out to private tenants - but if caught, may currently face no greater penalty than losing their tenancy.
Mr Shapps wants to see much greater legal consequences for these cheats - and so is consulting on proposals that would introduce specific criminal offences for tenancy fraud, such as those which already exist for social security fraud.
Some estimates suggest that between 50,000 and 160,000 social homes are currently being unlawfully occupied across the country.
The Minister said the plans would also strengthen councils' legal rights as landlords to help them detect and prosecute tenancy fraud more effectively and return lost revenue back to local coffers.
here. And all the politics stories filed yesterday, including some in today's paper, are here.
You can read all today's Guardian politics storiesAs for the rest of the papers, here are some stories and articles that are particularly interesting.
Critics of the HS2 project who have long questioned its economic cost and environmental impact, highlighted the government's calculations in its accompanying Value for Money Statement.
This shows that the traditional measure of value for money of infrastructure schemes – or the cost-benefit ratio – for the first 140 miles of the route from London to Birmingham has dropped from a gain of £1.60 for every £1 invested, when last calculated in February 2011, to £1.40.
"The Treasury wouldn't normally get out of bed for that," said Stephen Glaister, a transport economist and executive director of the pro-motoring RAC Foundation. "The economic case for HS2 had not been made." Other rail and road schemes were "much more attractive", he said.
The official analysis shows that a large part of the fall is due to the change in the government's economic forecasts but a rise in the estimates of the operating costs of high speed services also had a significant impact.
Local authority chiefs will meet Treasury officials this week to discuss how money held in 80 funds can be used for local projects.
Union leaders, who are locked in a battle with ministers over public sector pension reform, attacked the plan yesterday. Brian Strutton, national secretary of the GMB, said that many local goverment funds were now in deficit and should not be plundered for risky projects. "Members pensions' savings will be put at risk by investing them into dodgy infrastructure projects that are notoriously more expensive than planned and are unlikely to yield good returns," he added.
The Chancellor's move, which could raise at least £10 billion, comes after his announcement last November that £30 billion would be spent on infrastructure projects during the next ten years. Mr Osborne said in the Autumn Statement that £20 billion would be raised from private sector pension funds with £10 billion from extra government spending.
Labour may fight the next election on a pledge to bring in a "wealth tax" on owners of high-value properties, it emerged yesterday ...
The "squeezed middle" championed by Mr Miliband would not face higher taxes, which would be targeted on the highest earners. Rather than extend the 50p top tax rate, Labour might impose a new property tax, which would be harder to evade.
One option would be similar to the mansion tax on homes worth more than £2m which was advocated by the Liberal Democrats at the last election. Although they have pressed it recently inside the Coalition, David Cameron and George Osborne are not keen and the Government looks unlikely to adopt it – leaving the field clear for Labour.
Mr Miliband said he was very happy with the his frontbench team. "I talk to people like Jack (Straw) and Alistair (Darling) a lot and I will continue to do so.
"I don't think either of them want to return to the Shadow Cabinet and I am very happy with the Shadow Cabinet."
He added: "The party elders are invaluable sources of advice to me."
We urgently need a credible plan for jobs and growth based on the Scottish experience, where the recession was shorter and less sharp. Our recession lasted four quarters and gross domestic product fell 5.9 per cent. The UK recession lasted six quarters and GDP fell 7.2 per cent.
Scotland does not yet enjoy the full economic powers of independence that the Scottish National party will campaign for in the referendum we announced on Tuesday. We, however, have delivered a distinctive approach focused on protecting public investment; boosting access to finance; encouraging private investment; and enhancing economic security to promote confidence. We specifically brought forward capital expenditure, increasing public investment in infrastructure. This is an immediate stimulus and also unlocks a cycle of investment, growth, jobs and tax revenue.
Polly Curtis has been considering the matter on her Reality Check blog. Here's her verdict.
If Scotland becomes independent, will it have to join the euro?There is no precedent to Scotland's position vis-a-vis the EU. By law if it is considered a new state it would have negotiate entry to the EU from scratch, although it would readily satisfy its tests having been a member already. Any new member state has to join the euro. Whether it is considered a new state or whether it would retain any of the UK's exemptions, would have to be negotiated with the 27 member states of the EU – including the remainder of the UK.
Lord Glasman's New Statesman article. With PMQs looming, David Cameron will certainly have a copy in his folder. Two quotes are particularly valuable.
It's time to dig outFirst this:
On the face of it, these look like bad times for Labour and for Ed Miliband's leadership. There seems to be no strategy, no narrative and little energy. Old faces from the Brown era still dominate the shadow cabinet and they seem stuck in defending Labour's record in all the wrong ways - we didn't spend too much money, we'll cut less fast and less far, but we can't tell you how.
And then this:
Endogenous growth, flexible labour-market reform, free movement of labour, the dominance of the City of London - it was all crap, and we need to say so. Stanley Baldwin had a far more robust industrial growth strategy than Brown and Mandelson could conceive of ...
That last quote ends with the line "let alone Cable or Osborne", but you would not expect Cameron to say that.
We'll find out soon whether Cameron will use the quotes.
And we will found out soon how his feud with Ed Balls is going. After saying in a Sunday Telegraph interview that sitting opposite Balls at PMQs was like being heckled by "someone with Tourette's", Cameron apologised - although I was not clear whether he was apologising to Balls, or apologising to people with Tourette's for comparing them to the shadow chancellor.
At Coffee House, James Forsyth thinks Ed Miliband may try to avoid the Glasman jibes by asking six questions about Scotland.
David Cameron starts with a tribute to the four servicemen who have died since the last PMQs as a result of service in Afghanistan.
Graham Stuart, a Conservative, asks Cameron to congratulate a food company in his constituency. Unfortunately, the Food Standards Agency won't let it export to the far east. Will Cameron ensure job-destroying regulation is removed?
Cameron says exports to China went up 20% last year. A minister will look into this case.
Ed Miliband starts with his own tribute to the dead servicemen.
George Osborne said in his autumn statement that train fares would only go up by 1% above inflation. So why are some fares going up 11%.
Cameron said the power to allow this was granted by the last Labour government.
Miliband says that is wrong. Labour stopped this. But the coalition has reversed this policy.
Cameron says Miliband is wrong. In 2009 Labour allowed train fares to rise by up to 11%, because they introduced a 5% flexibility, on top of the RPI plus 1% formula used to control prices.
Miliband says Cameron is "just wrong". Labour took away that power. Cameron came back to office "and brought that power back". Will he reverse the policy?
Cameron says he orginally had an RPI plus 3% policy. That changed. Miliband is not willing to take difficult decisions he says. He should listen to Jim Murphy, who said there is a difference between popularity and populism, and that difference is credibility. Miliband should get some.
Milband says Cameron is wrong. Cameron said he wanted to take on crony capitalism. He has failed at the first hurdle. Will he admit he's wrong?
Cameron says Labour introduced the rail fair flexibility issue. They changed this for one year - the election year - but they had no intention of making that permanent.
(At last - we seem to have an explanation as to why Cameron and Miliband are contradicting each other so bluntly.)
Sir Roger Gale (as he became in the New Year's honours list) asks if high-speed rail will be extended to his Thanet constituency.
Cameron starts with a final point about rail fares. Under Labour, unregulated fares went up 23%, he says. High speed rail is a good thing, he adds.
Labour's Luciana Berger asks if Cameron will adopt the policy Miliband proposed yesterday to get energy companies to put pensioners on the lowest tariff.
Cameron sidesteps this. But he says that, unlike Labour, the coalition has made the increase in cold weather payments permanent.
Ed Miliband rises again.
Labour think the UK benefits the people of Scotland and the people of the UK in equal measure. Does Cameron agree that they must make the case for the shared benefits of the union?
Cameron says he and Miliband are going to be in 100% agreement on this. He passionately believes that the UK is stronger together. He is "sad" that this debate is even taking place. He looks forward to having the debate because the SNP are happy to talk about the process, but not the substance.
Miliband says he agrees. It is not a fight about process, he says. There should be cross-party talks in Scotland about the timing of the referendum. Does Cameron agree that there needs to be a discussion about the substantive issues involved. There should be a serious, thoughtful debate. People deserve nothing less.
Cameron says Milband is right. It is important for the UK government and parliament to speak to the Scottish parliament and government. The referendum must be decisive and fair. On timing, he does not understand why the SNP want to put this off.
PMQs Snap Verdict: The fact check merchants will have to adjudicate on the first exchange, I'm afraid, because - not being an expert in the rail fare price regulation - it was impossible to tell who was right and who was wrong. Sounded like they both had a point. On the union, it was pure consensus - important, but dull.
Cameron says dealing with the care problem will be a big challenge. The government wants to address the problem of people having to sell their homes. It is looking "hard" at this issue.
Labour's Michael Meacher says the 1,000 richest people have got richer by £137bn. That would pay off the deficit. Will Cameron tax them more and create one million jobs?
Cameron suggests Meacher could be talking about what happened when Labour was in office. The government wants the richest to pay most, he says, and that is what is happening.
David Simpson, the DUP MP, says Nick Clegg is reported to have said that the UK will sign up to the EU treaty Cameron rejected. Is that right?
Cameron says Britain did not sign up to the treaty because it did not get the safeguards it wanted. That won't change. What coalition partners want to put in their election manifestos is up to them.
Labour's Valerie Vaz asks Cameron if he will restore funding to the UK Research Council. Cameron says he will look into this.
Cameron says the government is working to bring "closure" to the issue of Guantanamo Bay.
Labour's Gregg McClymont asks if Cameron will confirm that the 50p top rate of tax will remain for the rest of this parliament.
Cameron says the government's policy is much the same as Alistair Darling's when he introduced it (ie, that it should be temporary). He says the government will monitor how much it raises.
Labour's Tony Lloyd asks when the ratio of top pay to average pay will come down.
Cameron says he wants the government to publish information about pay ratios in the public sector. The last government did nothing to address this, he says.
Labour's Tony Cunningham says the NHS is in crisis in Cumbria.
Cameron says the government is committed to year-on-year increases in NHS spending, unlike Labour. He also wants to look at the way alcohol is causing health spending to go up.
Sir Bob Russell (another newly-knighted backbencher) asks if Israel should be treated like apartheid South Africa because of its treatement of Arabs.
Cameron says he supports Israel's right to accept, but does not support its policies towards Arab settlements.
Cameron says the government will be spending £4m to get more people on the bone marrow register.
Julian Brazier, a Conservative, asks if Cameron supports a plan to get the Territorial Army to set up free schools.
Cameron says he wants to see cadet forces expand in areas where they have not been active before.
Dame Joan Ruddock (a third, newly-gonged backbencher) asks about the cut to housing benefit.
Cameron congratulates her on her honour, even though he disagrees with what she has down in her political career. (She tried to "disarm Britain", he says, referring to her past as chair of CND.) He says rents are going down as a result of the housing benefit cuts.
a Dow Jones News story about it here, and the Guardian version of it here - and the coalition has reinstated that flexibility. It seems pretty clear cut. Cameron's argument was that Labour was still to blame because the suspension was a one-off, pre-election concession. But the coalition does not seem to have been under any obligation to reverse it, and so Miliband's charge stacks up (although I notice that the Guardian 2009 story includes a quote from the Lib Dem Norman Baker - now a transport minister - saying: "While this will provide welcome respite from the normally unrelenting rise of annual fares, it is just a pause, not the end of higher train fares").
Verdict: Ed Miliband was right. I haven't become an expert in rail fare regulation over the last 10 minutes, but Labour did scrap the flexibility allowing operators to raise regulated fares by up to 5% above the national rate in 2009 - you can readUPDATE AT 3.22pm: Actually, it's a bit more complicated than that. There is some evidence to back Cameron's claim that the Labour decision was just a temporary one. See my post at 3.22pm.
Here's a lunchtime summary.
• Alex Salmond, Scotland's first minister, has insisted that the Scottish government does have the legal right to call a referendum on independence without Westminster approval.He also claimed that David Cameron's determination to force an early referendum on independence will increase support for leaving the UK. He said the the prime minister had no mandate to set the rules for an independence referendum, describing Cameron as "almost Thatcher-esque". (See 9.17am.)
• Cameron has accused Salmond of being afraid to call the referendum on Scottish independence. At PMQs, he said that he passionately believed in the union and that he wanted a debate on the issues.
I sometimes think when I listen to [the SNP] that it is not a referendum they want, it's a never-endum ... Let's have the debate and let's keep our country together ... I passionately believe in the future of our United Kingdom. I passionately believe we are stronger together rather than breaking apart ... Frankly, I look forward to having the debate because I think there have been too many in the SNP who are happy to talk about the process, but they don't want to talk about the substance.
Downing Street said that Cameron would be personally involved in talks in the coming week about the timing and the scope of the referendum. Ed Miliband said pro-union politicians should start focusing on the issues at stake. "We on this side of the House believe the United Kingdom benefits the people of Scotland and the people of the rest of the United Kingdom in equal measure," Miliband said. "We are stronger together and weaker apart."
• Miliband has accused Cameron of failing to "stand up to the train companies" because the government has sanctioned fare increases of up to 11%. He said Cameron had "failed at the first hurdle" in his efforts to tackle irresponsible capitalism. Cameron claimed that fares were going up by up to 11% under a formula introduced by Labour. But Miliband said that Labour abolished that rule in 2009, and that it was re-instated by the coalition.
• Grant Shapps, the housing minister, has announced that a new criminal offence will be created to stop council tenants subletting their homes. Offenders could face up to two years in jail. David Orr, chief executive of the National Housing Federation, which represents housing associations, said his organisation fully supported the plan. "Tenancy fraud is a grave abuse and tackling it has always been a priority for social landlords," he said. "With so many people requiring affordable housing, such behaviour is unfair on the large numbers of people on waiting lists. Criminalising subletting will mean that the profits will become the proceeds of crime and will be available for confiscation on conviction."
• A teaching union has criticised Michael Gove, education secretary, for attacking IT teaching in schools. Chris Keates, the NASUWT's general secretary, said: "Such assertions are based on a deliberate misrepresentation of the evidence which in fact demonstrates widespread good practice which needs to be built upon." But Stephen Twigg, the shadow education secretary, broadly welcomed the speech. There are full details on our digital literacy live blog.
• Andrew Lansley, the health secretary, has announced that Professor Sir Bruce Keogh, the NHS Medical Director, will lead a review of the steps taken to protect women with PiP breast implants. In a statement to the Commons, Lansley also said that private providers how inserted the implants had "a responsibility to put things right".
• Peter Wright, the Mail on Sunday editor, has told the Leveson inquiry that he was "uncomfortable" to learn that his journalists had used the private investigator Steve Whittamore. There our full details on our Leveson live blog.
• Maggie Atkinson, the children's commissioner for England, has said that the welfare bill could breach children's rights. In an impact assessment (pdf), showing the potential effects of the bill on children's rights in England, she identified groups of children whose rights may be breached by the implementation of the bill.
• MI5 has been named on a list of Britain's most gay-friendly employers for the first time. As the Press Association reports,MI5, which has not always welcomed gay employees out of a perceived fear they could be vulnerable to corruption, was ranked at number 62 in the top 100 list of Britain's best employers for lesbian, gay and bisexual staff. It is the first time MI5 has appeared in the list compiled by the equality charity Stonewall.
for her Reality Check blog and she (like me) thinks that Miliband was in the right in this exchange.
More on Ed Miliband, David Cameron and rail fares. My colleague Polly Curtis has been making some callsBut on Twitter Ric Holden from Tory HQ has been hitting back. He has been looking at the press notice issued by the Department for Transport in August 2009 about Lord Adonis's decision to abolish the rule allowing fares to rise by well above inflation and he has noted that it says Adonis intended to remove this "for 2010". It did not say "from 2010", says Holden, arguing that this proves it was only ever a one-year exemption.
Here's the Guardian audio of PMQs.
12.34pm.) Is that correct? My colleague Jill Insley has sent me this.
At PMQs David Cameron said that rents were going down as a result of the government's housing benefit cuts. (See![]()
The cost of renting a home in England and Wales did fall in November (on the lastest available figures according to LSL Property Services, which owns lettings agents Your Move and Reeds Rains) but this is the usual pattern for rents every year. In 2010 rents fell by -1.2% in December, and rose by 0.1% in November - the smallest rise that year. In 2009 and 2008 they fell in November and December after a general trend of growth during the year.
LSL says this is because a large number of rental contracts come to an end at this time of the year but tenants' spending power is constrained by the extra cost of Christmas, so landlords are often inclined to reduce rents to ensure their properties are occupied again.
It's a bit early to say that housing benefit cuts are having any effect on rents - many of those in existing rental contracts will not yet have been hit by the cuts. And in London where the effect is disproportionately severe, landlords will simply let their properties to the numerous professional tenants who can't afford to buy their own homes.
More on rail fares. In response to Ed Miliband's comments at PMQs about some fares going up by as much as 11%, the Association of Train Operating Companies has put out this statement.
The average rise in season tickets is set by the government under a policy introduced in 2004 to reduce taxpayer subsidy to the railways. When setting fares, train companies are subject to strict rules that have been rigorously implemented by both this government and the last.Within this highly regulated system, operators can vary the price of individual season tickets. But regulated fares that go up by more than the average must be balanced by others that rise by less than the average. These changes are weighted, meaning that train companies cannot put all the highest fare rises on the busiest routes.
12.40pm.) They have released a contract signed by the Department for Transport and one of the rail companies showing that when Lord Adonis abolished the rule allowing fare to rise well above inflation, the contact said that rule would be re-instated in 2011. That certainly boosts David Cameron's claim that the decision was only temporary. My colleague Polly Curtis has the full details on her Reality Check blog. Here's her conclusion.
The Tories have been fighting back in the Miliband/Cameron rail fare spate. (SeeIn the event it was the coalition that reintroduced the flexibility which allowed some rail fares to go up by 11% this year; at PMQs Miliband was technically right about that and Cameron was wrong. But if Labour would have done the same, their attack on the government is undermined. However, with such contradictory evidence - the word of a former secretary of state against a legal document albeit with no context and with only one of the train firms - it's very difficult to say definitively which party wins the political argument on this one.
Here's an afternoon summary.
• The Public and Commercial Services union has warned that there will be further strike action over the government's plans to cut public sector pensions. As the Press Association reports, the PCS has confirmed it rejection of the government's offer. The PCS also said unions representing around a million workers in the Civil Service, education, local government and health, had either rejected or refused to sign up to the government's offer. Mark Serwotka, the PCS general secretary, said: "We have consistently called for proper negotiations on the key issues of paying more and working longer for less, but the government has refused at every point, leaving us with no choice but to oppose what is nothing more than a political attempt to make the least culpable pay the highest price for the failings of the banks. We have told ministers we expect to be included in any future discussions. But we are clear that, with no significant movement since two million public servants took strike action together on November 30, further co-ordinated industrial action will be necessary to stop these unfair and entirely unnecessary plans."
• George Osborne, the chancellor, has told the Treasury committee that Britain was not seeking an opt-out from all EU financial regulation when David Cameron refused to sign up to a new treaty. "We were not seeking a UK opt-out from financial services legislation," he said. "In some cases we were wanting to impose stronger financial services."
That's it for today. Thanks for the comments.
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11 January 2012 9:08AM
If I am allowed a footnote on yesterday's news, not much noticed during the day was Ed Miliband’s minor dishonesty about why a “new” approach to priorities in spending was now being talked about
The spin from Ed (in his Q&A) and Rachel Reeves (on Newnight) was that this new/revised approach was rendered necessary by the Governments’ failure to deliver on its promise to have eliminated the deficit by the end of the Parliament. The (unstated) implication was that it the Government had delivered on this the Labour party would have had less need to face up to choices they would otherwise not have had to make.
This, however, totally airbrushes the fact that the Labour Party deficit reduction plan was always (and I believe still) only to reduce the deficit by half over this Parliament, leaving the balance to be dealt with in the next.
So, the deficit inheritance now forecast for 2015 which is put forward as the justification for this change of tack will in fact be very much the deficit the Labour party had always planned to have in 2015. Whatever the failings of Coalition policies, the Labour Party needs a better reason for, and should be more honest about, why they have taken so long to face up to the post-2015 implications of their own fiscal policy.
11 January 2012 9:10AM
First the bad news - YouGov show Labour and Cons neck and neck.
The good news - although the Guardian have a piece on Welsh Labour's concerns that the new boundary changes will lessen Wales' representation at Westminster the Western Mail has a very encouraging interpretation of the new boundaries if they do go through.
11 January 2012 9:11AM
The Telegraph is carrying this report from the Migratory Advisory Committee (MAC) which concludes that (non EU) immigration does affect job prospects for UK nationals. Whilst acknowledging the difficulty of identifying areas of employment specifically affected by immigration, the report states:
In the light of this, Michael Gove's announcement of a shake-up in the way IT is taught seems timely. Loath as I am to praise Gove (the most dogmatic free market ideologue in a cabinet stuffed with free market dogmatists) on anything, he does appear to have at least interfered for the good in this case. With the caveat that his plans to involve the IT industry in designing lessons will likely open the door for greater corporate, e.g Microsoft and Google, involvement in the state education sector.
11 January 2012 9:16AM
And on the Scotland story, the BBC is reporting this as "the UK Government thinks it would be illegal to have a referendum; however Alex Salmond says he has a mandate" as if these two statements contradicted each other.
It may suit Alex Salmond to conflate and confuse the issues but there is no contradiction involved. As Menzies Campbell sensibly said on "Today", no one is questioning Alex Salmond's mandate but a political mandate does not make it legel for the Scottish Parliament to pass a law and spend public money if this would otherwise be illegal under the Scotland Act. (I accept Salmond may separately be questioning the legal point but he is not majoring on this).
11 January 2012 9:16AM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2084913/Until-Miliband-accepts-share-blame-mess-hell-taken-seriously.htmlhttp://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/matthew-norman/matthew-norman-if-politics-is-like-sex-ed-will-never-find-the-national-gspot-6287723.html
Some coverage of Miliband... Is it really a relaunch - I just thought it was his first outing of the year rather than a relaunch. @AndrewSparrow, were Labour people going around briefing Journalists that this was a relaunch?
On another note, I think Cameron's intervention on the Scotland question was a mistake. Instinctively I feel the Union should stay intact but the more Old Etonian David Cameron and Gideon wade into this issue, the more I feel Scotland should go off on their own.
Even more tangentially, Israel and Iran appear to be fighting an undeclared war, which is good news for the world.
I see Mitt "i love to fire people" Romney appears ti be in good shape. The fact that he is the most electable shows how strange (as I see it) the republican field is.
11 January 2012 9:19AM
rubbish.
They haven't taken so long to face up to anything. Miliband has said that there would need to be a different way of doing things given the fiscal climate from the beginning of his leadership.
11 January 2012 9:20AM
Another blip? Tell me, are the Tories 36%?
11 January 2012 9:23AM
If the Scottish parliament pass a law which essentially results in independence following a referendum yes, Scotland act or not - difficult to see what Westminster could do about it anyway. Are you suggesting we invade in that event?
11 January 2012 9:23AM
Westminster is more than entitled to call the shots on the referendum, holding the legal authority to do so. It was good to see the SNP thrown off guard and to be frank if the Scots are so prickly and anti London then speaking as an Englishman we are better off without them.
11 January 2012 9:26AM
You may be right; but if so way was the speech prebriefed and spun by Labour as so significant; and why (as noted by the Telegraph Sketch writer) did he use the phrase "new approach" six times
11 January 2012 9:27AM
Gove's speech will be interesting for a number of reasons...
He's like a bizarre combination of Gradgrind and Doctor Blimber - but he continues to send out a confused, contradictory message:
Obviously for Gove education equates with the rule of work and punishment (and profit for his pals), but now he's spinning this crazy 'get funky with IT' line ...
How he attempts to reconcile these two opposed positions will be ... entertaining!
11 January 2012 9:28AM
Re. MAC and The Zombie That Just Won't Die.
Jonathan Portes wrote a blogpost on the difference between the NIESR report and the MAC report , given that they used roughly the same methodology (one said there was no evidence that migration affected 'native' employment, the other that there was): http://notthetreasuryview.blogspot.com/2012/01/british-jobs-and-foreign-workers-todays.html
He points out that even the MAC report itself contains the line “the results are statistically insignificant when outliers are removed from the data”.
So let's not let this MAC report become orthodoxy. It is far from that.
11 January 2012 9:29AM
The question is who has the legal authority to hold a binding referendum. It is not as though the government is saying no to a referendum, on the contrary they are saying hold it, the sooner the better. The problem with your argument James is that Devo Max is a non starter if London won't play ball and there is nothing undemocratic about that, London does not have to make a constitutional adjustment to acommadate a minority group if it does not wish to. This will mean that they will go for independence or hold a further 2 question referendum which what London is proposing anyway.
11 January 2012 9:31AM
Who said they were on 36% ? It's been a few weeks since the Tories were polling 35 %, 34 %.
You might like to look at the polling history on UK Polling report if you don't know how your party are doing.
It'll be a bit chastening - the question why Cameron is not much nearer to bringing in a Tory majority needs answering.
Poll of Polls on UK Polling Report gives a small Labour majority.
11 January 2012 9:33AM
The point Ming Cambell (and Micheal Moore) are making is that no one is above the law. The Scottish Parliament - unlike the UK Parliament - is not unconstrained. What it does has to be legal in terms of the powers delegated under the Scotland Act.
If (and as I said I accept there may be argument about this) it is not within the competence of the Scottish Parliament to pass a bill which will have an effect on a non-delegated issue such as Constitutional matters, it would be unlawful for money to be taken from the block grant to meet the expenses required by such a bill.
It is exactly the same argument and rule of law which allows citizens to go to Court to argue that UK Ministers are not acting within the powers given to them by Parliament.
11 January 2012 9:39AM
Very interesting if the election was tomorrow and not in 3.5 years. Cameron has done well considering the cuts programme. Lets face it its not going well for Labour or the left really and it can only get worse-a cheery though;)
11 January 2012 9:40AM
So according to this morning's Times, Gideon is raiding local government pensions funds to pay for Coalition infrastructure projects.
Can I assume he will be hammered like Brown was (and like Thatcher wasn't for taxing pension funds supluses over 5% of capital at 40%)?
11 January 2012 9:41AM
*surpluses
11 January 2012 10:02AM
Thanks for the link. I was aware of the NIESR report and believe their results to be a better indicator of the true impact of immigration. I also don't fall for the negative spin a paper like the Telegraph will naturally put on any studies of the impact of immigration on the jobs market.
I was mentioned the MAC report because it specified an area of employment which can only grow and which is currently ill-served in UK education (I heard someone on 'Today' this morning saying there were only 4000 A-level passes in IT last year) - hence the apparent need for foreign workers in this sector, and Gove's proposal to shake up schools IT training seems to have acknowledged this shortcoming.
11 January 2012 10:06AM
Is there some way we can arrange a referendum on Scotland that both Alex Salmond and David Cameron can lose?
It would also be nice if either of them were genuinely campaigning about Scotland, rather than sabre-rattling in honour of their self-image. A further parade of bloated egos isn't my idea of an answer to either independence or the West Lothian question.
11 January 2012 10:14AM
Maybe they should have put Gove in charge of saving the union. He's probably already drawn up plans for turning all of Scotland into the North Berwick Academy. Whether they like it or not.
11 January 2012 10:15AM
Here's a thought - when ed miliband loses the 2015 election and quits then Darling may well be in a good position to take over.
If he's led a successful "no" campaign in scotland he'll not just be seen as a winner but someone who can work in a non-partisan manner and whilst a scot may have some attraction to southern english voters for his defence of the union. His economic position on the deficit is also more hawkish than that of Balls and he could be said to be one of the few politicians of any of the main parties who spoke with some degree of honesty about the credit crunch and the recession that followed.
11 January 2012 10:18AM
I think it is, as with most things, that Cameron is simply out of his depth.
11 January 2012 10:19AM
Morning!
I don't think Ed M actually used the word relaunch – but I think the general consensus among the press was that was what it was (something like his eighth in the last year?) - Andrew might be able to shed light on what was said exactly to the press about the speech. We also called it a relaunch in this Guardian piece here.
11 January 2012 10:19AM
I agree about IT education.
The sooner people get away from thinking about IT as 'proficiency with word-processing packages' and start pushing coding as a dynamic discipline in its own right, the better.
11 January 2012 10:21AM
Article in the Independent about how tax payers are funding the bills of banks' lobbying firms. The Government is supposedly trying to rein in lobbying firms and denies that they necessarily have much influence anyway; but there is some doubt about how far any reforms will go, because there's a lot of lobbying going on against them.
Hope that's clear!
11 January 2012 10:21AM
I think Cameron has erred massively on an issue of crucial importance twice in a month: first on Europe, now on Scottish independence.
In both instances he has taken a non-negotiable stance and has weakened his hand - Merkozy are glad to see the back of him and he has now placed Salmond and the SNP in a no lose situation regarding the referendum.
Whether this is ideological arrogance or ineptitude is unclear, but is is blindingly obvious that these two issues are going to distract him from what he should be doing and that is running the country, solving the economic and social ills of the country. It seems obvious in both instance that he has paid little attention to a considerable portion of his own party and the LibDems - this does not bode well for when we hit yet another crisis.
11 January 2012 10:23AM
Wasn't this an idea the Daily Mail proposed a few days ago? I suspect they might not have Labour's electoral success at heart...
And perhaps Miliband would be less likely to lose the election if people stopped talking about who is going to replace him all the time? I'd rather those interested in Labour worried more about about the swivel-eyed Blairites who hamstring what Miliband in much the same way that the bonkers anti-Europe fringe have far too much influence on the Tories. Neither of them deserve listening to.
11 January 2012 10:25AM
apologies for the extra "what" - I meant 'the Blarites who hamstring Miliband'. My typing continues to be erratic at best.
11 January 2012 10:29AM
Continue thinking it and you may start to believe it regardless of the facts:)
11 January 2012 10:30AM
You have forgotten the word growth. On all the evidence growth will be non existent or, at best sluggish so. Labour would be faced with a deficit not eliminated and little increase in revenue from tax receipts to ease the burden of cuts and further borrowing. That the change.
11 January 2012 10:33AM
And which facts might these be?
11 January 2012 10:37AM
Andrew
Nothing on Grant Shapps announcing the new crime of subletting council accomodation because it's "Costing taxpayers money?"
I love the idea that there are all these empty council houses lying around just desperate to be filled but because those nasty tenants are taking in lodgers and charging for room and board somehow the council is being defrauded.
And that somehow this is costing the council more than these individuals being put up in £30 per night B&Bs or forced to live on the streets.
Private BTL owners are being denied potential customers is what you mean, isn't it, Mr Shapps?
11 January 2012 10:41AM
I'm also concerned about what Devo will mean to our armed services - most of the frontline regiments are from Scotland; Faslane and Rosyth currently store more Grey Estate than we have room for in Devonport, including the Carriers and the subs will have to leg it back down to Barrow.
11 January 2012 10:47AM
For those interested in the Gove story on scrapping ICT in schools - it coincides with the digital literacy campaign we're holding this week. Actually, the education secretary's comments really tie-in with what a lot of teachers and practioners were telling us yesterday. We'll have another live webchat and be covering Gove's speech over here today.
@yahyah thanks for the link to the Western Mail piece on boundary changes. Haven't seen much on the Welsh politics blogosphere about it yet but will let you know if I do.
11 January 2012 10:48AM
Wee! Watch that gun sail beneath me as I hurdle it with the greatest of ease!
11 January 2012 10:48AM
Just to clarify Salmond is not asking for a UDI.....ie Do you think Scotland should be independent....
The floated question is asking whether the Scottish Govt has the Scottish poeple's consent to begin negotiations to make Scotland independent.
Scots Law is quite clear that the Scottish people are sovereign to themselves and no parliament...unlike England where Parliament is all powerful.
Naturally there is a difference of Legal opinion and it was almost certain some hard core Unionist would put up a blocking legal challenge....yesterday Moore effectively gave Salmond a free pass on the legal so it's really no longer an issue.
11 January 2012 10:52AM
Any news on the mystery surrounding Rebecca Brookes laptop?
Surely by now the police have cracked the code & solved the mystery or there is still some question over the information it held - I think we should be told.
How about Chris Huhnes prospective prosecution for getting his ex-wife to accept his driving points - any news?
11 January 2012 10:53AM
Re devolution; as a northern Englishman, I would far rather we quit the union too, and throw in our lot with Scotland, with whom we have far more in common socially, politically, and economically, than we do with the southeast/ London. While we are at it, let Wales come with us too, and I suspect, people in the midlands might want to as well. I would have no problem with being ruled from Edinburgh - its a much more beautiful and cultured city than Antheap-on-Thames.
11 January 2012 10:53AM
Really? Would you like to point out to the class the legislation that confers the "legal authority" upon "Westminster" to do that?
11 January 2012 10:53AM
It was described in advance as a relaunch by (pretty much?) all the mainstream press. If it wasn't a relaunch, surely Labour would (should?) have worked to dampen expectation?
If it wasnt planned as a relaunch, perhaps they allowed the idea it was one to take hold because of the amount of not-all-that-negative press they started to receive on the back of it? A bit jam today, pay tomorrow if so...
11 January 2012 10:59AM
Alex Salmond's mad rush to announce a date for the referendum in the middle of Michael Moore's speech really reminds me of the classic Smashie & Nicey special where they and the Radio 1 controller raced around the BBC to be the first to announce to the press 'you're fired/we resign'.
@JamesCracknell
The challenge wouldn't come from Westminster - Salmond is counting on the UK Government being basically nice and decent and agreeing to his mandate (don't know why he thinks the people who brought you the No to AV campaign would be nice and decent but there you go). It would come from either some die-hard unionist or someone whose financial interests were affected.
Does anyone in Scotland have any reports about how your average non-political person is taking this? Is it the talk of the water coolers and pubs? It's very hard to tell from cyberspace which is dominated by people with very very strong feelings about this - but as with AV, it won't be the people with the very very strong feelings who will cast the majority of votes.
11 January 2012 11:03AM
Back on Devolution:
It all depends on whether this is seen as a child leaving home or a divorce.
If the former, then Britain can't stop it, wipes its eye and says "Don't forget to write" shoving a ten pound note in Scotland's pocket and waiting for the Christmas visit
If the latter, of course, then either partner can file for divorce.
Where the international courts will have to come in, however, is in deciding who gets custody of the kids (Oil fields, fishing rights). Maybe the UK could still keep them alternate weekends.
11 January 2012 11:03AM
Perhaps losing all those Labour voters would suit some sections of the Tory party.
11 January 2012 11:06AM
The business with sub-letting I can see it working like this:
-Council home tenant (CHT) sub-lets his home whilst he lives in a privately purchased home
-Under new law CHT will be prosecuted for same so will evict the sub-let family in order to retain possession of the house
-CHT now has 2 homes - one from council & one he is purchasing privately
-Sub-let family now evicted will need to be housed by council
-CHT meanwhile applies for the newly increased right-to-buy scheme which means he will get up to 50% off the price
-CHT now has a privately owned home to let to any tenant of his choosing & for any price
Bingo!
FFS - isn't there anyone in this government with the ability to see the consequences of their actions? Anyone at all?
11 January 2012 11:09AM
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/7565553/salmonds-running-rings-around-cameron.thtmlI don't think Salmond is expecting Westminster to be anything other than obstructive, mendacious and willfulling deceptive. Take Moore's ranting on the subject of "Devo Max", for example.
What Moore fails to mention is that Devo Max is not the SNPs preferred option. Salmond is on record ( http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e40ef8b2-f...#axzz1j4EFVYEt ) saying that a straight "yes/no" vote is the SNPs preference, however, IF there is a desire to see a third option (the vaunted "Devo Max") and another party wishes to define and campaign for it, then its should of course be on the ballot. Now Moore and Cameron are saying there shouldn't be a third option. 'Eck's fine with that.
The Spectator seems to think Salmond's playing this well:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/7565553/salmonds-running-rings-around-cameron.thtml
11 January 2012 11:12AM
Only twice have Scottish MPs affected the balance of power within a GE:
http://wingsland.podgamer.com/?p=13513
11 January 2012 11:12AM
Err....it was hardly the talk of the office in Aberdeen this morning.....Kari Arnesen possibly going from Aberdeen to Rangers rated higher.
To be honest the nuts, bolts and mechanics of the referendum are of little interest....whilst this maybe be new down in England this debate has been going on pretty much since 2007 up here.....
So no one really cares if it was explicitly spelt out in the SNP manifesto or not when the referendum would be...we were promised a vote...now we're getting one.
11 January 2012 11:14AM
Given it is the fully funded pension scheme of the public sector, doesn't seem very wise as we are facing demographic pressures. One of the arguments the coaltion have been using to justify their attacks on pensions.
Also if these infrastructure projects are so great - why won't the private sector fund them. And might I remind people that Old Etonian David Cameron was at pains to point out last week that private sector investment was happening in answer to the charge that the private sector wasn't taking up the employment slack as he and Gideon had been telling everyone.
11 January 2012 11:15AM
If there is going to be a "consultative referendum" rather than the (for the SNP) riskier " legally binding referendum" shouldn't everyone in the UK be consulted as it will effect us all? I am sure the SNP negotiating position would be strengthened if the results from around the UK showed that its not just people in Scotland who would like to see them leave the Union?
If independence means that the UK would leave the EU and then re-apply the SNPs strongest allies may be the BNP, UKIP and the euro-sceptic side of the Tory party.
The logistics of it all would be a nightmare! Would all Scottish regiments and Scottish armed forces return to Scotland and all the "English and Welsh " navy and airforce personel move back?
If both countries are no longer in the EU would the dispora of Scottish immigrants move back? Would the (non EU) English and Welsh be able to change, for example, the benefits system so that the Scottish (and other immigrants) don't get free access to the NHS or access to social welfare payments such as housing benefit or DLA etc.
Heaven help the technocrats who have to work that all out!