Ryanair has one simple message for travellers: that it's a low-cost airline. But when chief executive Michael O'Leary speaks to shareholders, it's a different story. On Monday he was trumpeting a 13% rise in average fares over the past six months – from €44 to €50 – and once the hated extras are thrown in (card fees, online check-in, baggage, etc), the average "yield" per passenger has jumped from €54 to €61.
In Ryanair's favour, the fare increases are less than the rise in fuel costs. Unlike its competitors, it has no fuel surcharges (at British Airways it works out at €14 a flight and at Lufthansa €28, according to Ryanair). What's more, it can still claim to be the lowest-fare airline. It says that easyJet's average fare is €71, while at British Airways it's €248.
But the days of the super-low £1 fares that so captured the public's imagination are over. Booking a flight home to Dublin this Christmas? Once the extras are thrown in, it's about £100 return. For an eastern European worker looking for a flight home at Christmas from London, the price rises to about £160-£170, even picking "cheap" flight days such as a Tuesday.
Neither do low-cost airlines always offer the lowest fares. Figures from Skyscanner.net show that someone wanting to fly London to Malaga on 21 November will be charged £36 by Monarch, £45 by BA and £71 by Ryanair.
A trip from London to Pisa on 21 November will cost £74 on easyJet, £123 on BA and £126 on Ryanair.
One problem with airfares is that no one really knows who pays what. The price varies enormously within any airline; the highest prices are paid by those who buy at the last minute. Michael O'Leary has been known to say that his best customers are the bereaved: they have no choice but to pay up.
On its website, Ryanair is currently promoting a £9.99 one-way deal on flights in January and February. Once the extras are added, passengers can probably find a return for £40 or so. Cheap? Yes, but no longer in the realm of just a few quid that Ryanair's early fans found so enticing.
The direction in fares is only one way: up. Ryanair will ground up to 80 aircraft over the winter, while other airlines are also reducing capacity. Meanwhile, the takeover of loss-making bmi by IAG (British Airways' parent group) has prompted fears about the future of domestic routes such as London to Belfast, and reduced competition on routes to southern Ireland.
In the US, it's a similar picture. Angry passengers are finding that domestic flights home for Thanksgiving, which were going for $300 last year, are now closer to $500.
Environmentalists will welcome higher fares as the only way to deter a travelling public that is punch-drunk on cheap flights. But don't look too closely at Ryanair's traffic forecasts. Five years ago, it was carrying fewer than 40 million passengers, next year it expects that figure to be above 75 million – and rising. The era of super-cheap flights is over, but the appetite to fly is not.
