6pm: After a quieter day on the campaign trail following New Hampshire's verdict, here's a brief summary of events as attention moved to South Carolina:

• Mitt Romney's margin of victory in New Hampshire widened to 39% after the final votes were counted, setting off suggestions that the campaign was all but over, with Newt Gingrich stating that a Romney victory in South Carolina would effectively hand him the nomination

• The Ron Paul campaign argued that its candidate should be seen as the "real conservative" alternative to Romney after its second place finish in New Hampshire, as a meeting of evangelical leaders is planned for Saturday to settle on a candidate

• The final New Hampshire tally showed that Newt Gingrich only narrowly beat Rick Santorum into fourth place by 49 votes, the second contest in a row that Santorum has lost by a handful of votes

• The savage attacks by Romney's rivals against his career at Bain Capital provoked a backlash from prominent Republicans such as Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh, accusing Gingrich and Perry of aping Occupy Wall Street and aiding the Democratic party

• Gingrich defended his criticisms of Romney's work as a venture capitalist, with his campaign labelling them "more phoney baloney"

And finally, via C-Span:

The only question about Mitt Romney that the media has so far failed to ask. Or answer.

5.23pm: Is Newt Gingrich backing off the attacks on Mitt Romney for his career as a venture capitalist? "More pious baloney," says the Gingrich campaign.

After Politico reported Gingrich appearing to agree with a voter in South Carolina to lay off, his campaign sent out a statement over what it called "misleading reports":

Instead of accepting the responsibility to answer questions about his business background, the Romney campaign is throwing up a smokescreen about an attack on capitalism. That's just more pious baloney from Mitt Romney and his campaign.

4.44pm: Mitt Romney's big speech last night got plaudits on the right – with rumour having it that it was the speech Romney had planned to give in Iowa until the narrowness of the result caused him to default to his stump speech.

But in the Huffington Post, Dan Kennedy deconstructs Romney's words and finds if to be "cynical, dishonest":

When you hear moderates and liberals describe Romney as the most acceptable of the Republican candidates (something I've said myself), it is based on the notion that he doesn't believe a word he's saying. Like George HW Bush, he's in "campaign mode," and we're supposed to be reassured that "governing mode" is something entirely different.

The problem with this is that presidents are held to account for what they say when they're campaigning. And some of the stuff Romney's saying is pretty alarming. For instance, given his rhetoric, how could a President Romney not seek to repeal the healthcare law, throw money at our already-bloated military and pledge his unwavering support to the Israeli government no matter how irresponsibly it behaves?

4.29pm: The Senate as well as the presidency will be up for grabs in November – and in Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren has translated her groundswell of enthusiasm into dollars by raising $5.7m in the fourth quarter of last year.

Warren, clear favourite to be the Democratic nominee, outraised her incumbent Republican rival Scott Brown, who managed $3.2m in the same period.

The Boston Globe reports that Warren has $6m in the bank – but that is overshadowed by Brown's warchest:

Brown still holds a strong advantage, having accumulated $12.8 million in his campaign account, a record amount for any Massachusetts candidate this early in the election cycle.

It was Brown who suprised everyone in early 2010 by prising Ted Kennedy's old Senate seat out of Democratic hands. This promises to be one of the key Senate fights of 2012.

4pm: For your viewing pleasure: the full 28 minutes of the Mitt Romney vulture capitalism documentary "When Mitt Romney Came to Town" is now online. Go get it.

3.34pm: Terrible news for Rick Perry! CNN are going to allow him to take part in the next Republican presidential debate.

Rick Perry meets with senior advisors to discuss campaign strategy in South Carolina today. Photograph: Chris Keane/Reuters

This is a setback for Perry, who was probably confident he had managed to avoid the dreaded debate – thanks to his poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire meaning he didn't meet CNN's criteria. Sadly, CNN decided to bend the rules and let him, in an obvious cheap ratings grab, banking on Perry forgetting his own name or not wearing pants or shooting a coyote in the audience.

Update: Politico subsequently reports that CNN says it hasn't bent the rules at all and that Perry qualifies (just) under its criteria.

3pm: Signs that both Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry are backing off the "vulture capitalism" charge against Mitt Romney – thanks to a chorus of disapproval from Republicans that they are doing the Democratic party's dirty work for them.

At a book signing – where else? – Gingrich was implored by a South Carolina voter to "lay off the corporatist versus the free market" stuff. Politico reports that Gingrich replied:

I agree with you. It's an impossible theme to talk about with Obama in the background. Obama just makes it impossible to talk rationally in that area because he is so deeply into class warfare that automatically you get an echo effect.

Meanwhile, Rick Perry seems to have dropped the vulture stuff from his standard stump speeches in South Carolina. Never mind, I'm sure the DNC has enough clips to recycle come November.

Is it possible that the attacks on Romney and Bain have actually done more for Romney's standing among conservatives than anything his campaign ever managed? Yes.

2.36pm: Zombie Newt Gingrich's campaign puts out this YouTube compilation of Mitt Romney's greatest "hits".

The final clip is a perennial winner. Unlike Gingrich.

2.15pm: So Newt Gingrich beat Rick Santorum into fourth place by just 49 votes, now that New Hampshire has finally finished counting.

With 100% of precincts in, here's the final tally:

Mitt Romney 97,532, 39.3%
Ron Paul, 56,848 22.9%
Jon Huntsman 41,945, 16.9%
Newt Gingrich 23,411, 9.4%
Rick Santorum 23,362, 9.4%
Rick Perry 1,766, 0.7%
Buddy Roemer 945, 0.4%

Winning margin for Mitt Romney: 16.4 percentage points.

And we have a winner in our competition to predict the winners and losers of the New Hampshire primary. The winner was JukeboxRomeo, who got the order right and was closest with his forecast that Romney's winning margin would be 17%.

Honorable mentions for entrants maix84, breakingranks, tomheppy, liamosaurus, radio4whore and timmyhill – who all got the finishing order spot on.

1.50pm: Over at the US election live Q&A with Ana Marie Cox and the NRO's Jim Geraghty, there's a very interesting question that's worth repeating:

Why do you think the GOP candidates haven't used "Romneycare" as the cudgel to beat Romney? It seems that would be a better line of attack than Bain, but in all of the debates no one has strongly and effectively used this line of attack.

An excellent question, as Geraghty replies. And one very good answer came today on RedState:

Amidst this week's contretemps over Romney's tenure at Bain Capital, for some reason, we are obscuring the real albatross around Romney's neck; the issue of healthcare. While Romney's record at Bain might provide Obama with his biggest campaign weapon, Romneycare will disarm Romney, and by extension, all Republicans, of our biggest campaign weapon, namely, Obamacare.

1.36pm: On CNN last night, James Carville and Ari Fleischer had an entertaining schoolboy snit over the Republican turnout in New Hampshire. But maybe Carville had a point that the GOP should be concerned at the lack of enthusiasm shown so far.

Philip Klein of the Washington Examiner points out that the number of registered Republicans voting in the New Hampshire primary fell by 16% when compared with 2008. After various caveats, Klein commented:

From my observations, Republican events have been generally low energy both in Iowa and New Hampshire, especially when compared with what we saw on the Democratic side in 2008.

1.18pm: I missed this last night – but if Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina predicts Mitt Romney is going to win the Palmetto State, then the fat lady is warming up her vocal chords.

DeMint says he won't be endorsing anyone but he said on a radio show yesterday: "I think Romney's going to win here."

The significance of DeMint is that he was the Tea Party before the Tea Party even existed. He's among the most conservative Republican senators by voting record and at times he can make Ron Paul look like a tax and spend liberal.

Speaking of Ron Paul: on another radio show, DeMint also hung out this thought:

One of the things that's hurt the so-called conservative alternative is saying negative things about Ron Paul. I'd like to see a Republican Party that embraces a lot of the libertarian ideas.

1pm: President Barack Obama is speaking from the White House's East Room about US manufacturing.

Call me cynical but is today's event just a tiny smidgen to do with Mitt Romney's attacks? Today Obama went out of his way to mention that he has signed three new trade deals, something that Romney has denied with tedious legalism.

12.45pm: Welcome to South Carolina:

Strom Thurmond, eh?

12.33pm: Elsewhere on the Guardian, why not click on over to this live Q&A on the GOP presidential nomination, and leave your questions for Ana Marie Cox and the National Review Online's Jim Geraghty.

The Q&A itself kicks off at 1pm ET.

12.24pm: The National Journal's Major Garrett is a smart person – and he gets the clear and present danger that Ron Paul alone poses to the Mitt Romney bandwagon:

It's important to Romney that he discourage Paul from running as a third party candidate. If he does that, it's important Romney then persuade Paul to become at least a semi-enthusiastic proponent of his campaign.

Prepare yourself for an avalanche of "What does Ron Paul want?" pieces. The answer, says Garrett, is a prime-time speaking spot at the Republican National Convention.

12 noon: By the way, the final vote tally out of New Hampshire hasn't been completed yet, although 99% of the precincts are now in:

Mitt Romney 97,231, 39%
Ron Paul 56,499, 23%
Jon Huntsman 41,755, 17%
Newt Gingrich 23,312, 9%
Rick Santorum 23,168, 9%
Rick Perry 1,757, 1%
Buddy Roemer 938, 0%

A shade under 100,000 votes and a 39% vote share? I think that's as unalloyed triumph as you're going to get in a six-way contested primary. Put Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum and Perry's votes together and they still don't get close to Romney.

11.47am: Suddenly it's South Carolina all over the candidates' schedules.

Bonus points to Rick Perry for managing to get "barbeque", "gun" and "family" into the same timetable today.

Mitt Romney arrives in Columbia, South Carolina. Photograph: Justin Sullivan/Reuters

Mitt Romney
6.10pm: Holds a rally, The Hall at Senate's End, Columbia

Ron Paul
Noon: Holds a campaign rally, Eagle Aviation Building, West Columbia

Rick Santorum
2pm: Holds a meet-and-greet, YesterYears Restaurant, Ridgeway
7pm: Holds a town hall, Historic Springdale House & Gardens, Columbia

Newt Gingrich
9am: Town hall meeting, Laurel Creek Club, Rock Hill
11am: Holds a tele-town hall event
Noon: Spartanburg County GOP luncheon and book signing
1.30pm: Holds Beacon Restaurant town hall meeting, Spartanburg

Rick Perry enthralls the crowd at the Lizard's Thicket in Lexington, South Carolina. Photograph: Mary Ann Chastain/Reuters

Rick Perry
1.10pm: Holds a meet and greet, Doc's Barbecue and Southern Buffet, Columbia
3.30pm: Walking from The Gun Rack, Aiken
4.30pm: Holds a town hall, Municipal Building Conference Center, Aiken
6.15pm: Holds a meet and greet, Al's Family Restaurant, North Augusta

Jon Huntsman
3pm: Holds a town hall. University of South Carolina Business Hall of Fame, Columbia
7pm: Holds a town hall, North Charleston City Council Chambers, North Charleston

11.23am: Let's go back to the Los Angeles Times analysis of the nuts and bolts of Romney's campaign. Welcome to the politics of the future:

Michael Meyers, one of Romney's micro-targeting gurus and the president of the Alexandria, Virginia-based TargetPoint Consulting, noted that because more data are now collected online, the campaign has been able to cull up to 300 pieces of information about a voter, compared with fewer than two dozen in 2008.

11.16am: If you missed this exchange between GOP grande dame John Sununu and MSNBC's panel last night, then enjoy:

John Sununu: "There's a technical terms for that, it's a crock of crap."

Mystery of the night: why was John Sununu bothering to go on MSNBC?

11am: What the papers said about New Hampshire:

• Voter data crucial to Romney's victory - Los Angeles Times

An excellent in-depth article about the guts of the Romney campaign operation in New Hampshire and elsewhere, using micro-targeting that "will become increasingly crucial as it moves on to the battlegrounds of Florida and South Carolina".

• New Hampshire primary result: Republicans' verdict – Cif America

The experts consulted by the Guardian's Cif America are unanimous: barring a cataclysm, Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee. Here's Grover Norquist:

There will be no more surprises in the 2012 Republican race for the presidential nomination. After New Hampshire we know the following: Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee

• Expensive and Bitter Media War Already Ignited – New York Times

One big difference between the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries is "the sheer amount of money expected to go into television advertising".

• Romney shows wide base of support in New Hampshire win – Los Angeles Times

The dispiriting fact for Romney's rivals such as Gingrich and Santorum is, according to the New Hampshire exit polls, is that voters prefer Ron Paul as a more reliably conservative alternative to Romney.

• Ron Paul is a winner with second place in New Hampshire – Guardian

Ana Marie Cox makes the case that Ron Paul is the "real conservative" running for the Republican nomination

10.35am: As if winning nearly 40% of the vote in a six-way race in New Hampshire wasn't enough, the Mitt Romney campaign rammed home the message by announcing that Romney remains far ahead in the "money primary".

As the New York Times reports:

Mitt Romney's campaign will announce Wednesday morning that it raised $24m for the fourth quarter of 2011 and is going into 2012 with more than $19m cash on hand, several sources in the campaign confirmed.

This brings the Romney campaign's total 2011 haul to $56m. Earlier this year, the campaign said it hoped to raise $50m for the primary campaign, a goal that has now been far exceeded.

The New Hampshire primary results are in and the only question now is: after convincingly and unambiguously winning in New Hampshire, is Mitt Romney now all but certain to be the Republican presidential nominee?

The short answer to that question is: yes. The long answer is: yessssss.

I see dead candidates. Photograph: Ron Phillips/AP

With the exception of Ron Paul, the remaining Republican candidates – Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry – are dead. Like Bruce Willis's character in Sixth Sense, they are walking around like regular people. They don't see each other. They only see what they want to see. They don't know they're dead.

In the meantime, the presidential zombies are stumbling around South Carolina, lashing out blindly, in the hope they get lucky. Maybe they will, but we all know how this movie ends.

So gather your canned food and bottled water and settle in for South Carolina: Dawn of the Dead.