Austerity is failing across Europe. From Britain to Spain, the cure is killing the patient. Cuts and tax rises aren't reducing debt and borrowing. They're increasing both because they're choking off growth. Britain faces an extra £158bn borrowing because of the failure of George Osborne's austerity programme.
In the US, which has yet to succumb to the European disease, growth and jobs are starting to pick up. So it would be a strange moment for any opposition party to embrace austerity and cuts. Fortunately Ed Miliband didn't do that today – but his spinners made it seem as if he had.
His fightback speech was aimed at winning economic credibility. He also used it to advance his case for intervention against corporate abuse and for a "new economy". But to millions facing the full impact of coalition cuts this year on jobs, services and benefits, it risks sending the message that nobody in mainstream politics will defend them.
It's not surprising Miliband has chosen to toughen up his deficit talk now. For the past fortnight the Labour leader has faced a barrage of open or thinly coded attacks from Blairite zombies and former allies alike: from shadow cabinet ministers such as Jim Murphy to the maverick peer Maurice Glasman and a string of MPs, ex-ministers and long-forgotten New Labour advisers.
The common themes were the need to get serious about cuts, the danger of tax-and-spend, and Miliband's "anti-business rhetoric": the fixations of New Labour die-hards. David Cameron's temporary poll bounce on the back of his phantom Brussels veto and Miliband's poor personal ratings offered his critics the chance to launch a new year offensive.
Quite apart from Miliband's awkward public performances, relentless attacks from your own side would damage any politician's public reputation. And their impact was clear enough in the response to the Labour leader's interview on today's Radio 4 Today programme.
In fact Miliband more or less held his own, despite the apparent suggestion that he might be too ugly or otherwise personally inadequate to be a frontline politician. But the subsequent Twitter storm, fanned by Tory bloggers into full crowd-bullying mode, declared his performance a "total disaster" and, of course, "weird".
However important personal projection has become, this is to mistake what is really going on for the kind of US-style celebrity political culture most people had their fill of under Tony Blair. Miliband can improve his communication skills, as Margaret Thatcher did.
But he is under attack for his politics, not his personal ticks. The well-funded Blairites, who remain powerful in the shadow cabinet and parliamentary Labour party, have never accepted Miliband or the defeat of their prince over the water – his brother David.
By running a campaign on cuts and spending, they are also targeting Ed Balls, who has resisted cuts in a recession most strongly – and is now being vindicated by events. Without a cohesive counterweight to the Blairites, the Labour leader has tried to appease them, both with promotions and policy concession, such as on welfare.
But they remain unreconciled and now they feel they have drawn blood, they'll want to go further. The prospects of moving against Miliband have already been canvassed if Ken Livingstone were to lose the London mayoral election, or Labour were to do badly in next year's European elections.
Yet for all their insistence that only they know how to win elections, the New Labour nostalgics have been proved wrong. When Miliband turned his back on the Iraq war, called for employee rights over boardroom pay and denounced "predatory capitalism", they squealed in horror.
Now Cameron has launched his own attacks on "crony capitalism", accepted a continuing 50% tax rate, and pledged new shareholder powers on executive pay and a crackdown on tax avoidance in direct response to the electoral threat from Miliband's fairness and "squeezed middle" agenda.
Of course that is posturing. But at least rhetorically, it actually positions the Tories to the left of the Blairites, who offer little more than a better "anti-statist" yesterday, when the times we are living through so obviously require decisive government action.
Despite the spin, Miliband went further than before to make the case for public intervention in companies and markets, from energy to transport, to deliver "fairness even when there is less money around" and long-term wealth creation. But the measures he's proposing – such as requiring the private energy cartel to give over-75s the lowest tariff on offer – are still puny, particularly given the scale of the crisis and the kind of obvious alternatives, from a windfall tax to public takeover, which would make a real difference.
Miliband realises the world has changed, but perhaps not how much. Public doubts about Labour's economic competence will not be overcome by signing up for more cuts when most people want them slowed down. The Labour leader has been successful when he's been bold: standing for leader, opposing Murdoch, making the case for a new economic model.
As long as he is threatened internally, he will look weak. So he needs to pick a fight with a leading Blairite and win – to show who is in charge. And then develop policies, such as turning the state-controlled banks into engines of recovery and a mass housebuilding programme, that could turn the talk about a new economy into reality. Only by moving further on from New Labour can Miliband succeed – and offer the country the genuine alternative it needs.
Twitter: @SeumasMilne
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10 January 2012 10:27PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_Kh7nLplWo
10 January 2012 10:30PM
Yep. Spot on. Austerity is failing big time. Since Europe took Cameron's central policy its economies have hit the rocks. Ed must argue the rich who benefited most from getting everyone into debt should pay the most to get us out. Labour went along with big money. It must make the break.with big money and back the little guy.
.
Labour should make housing affordable again to kick start social mobility and tackle the huge vested interests. Free higher education rather than 20billion for housing benefit (private landlords)
Everyone knows they are being ripped off either by gas bills, or big companies not paying their taxes. Real leadership is tackling these issues.
10 January 2012 10:32PM
How infantile are the sycophants who are in thrawl to the worse Prime Minister in living memory, one David 'charlatan' Cameron in trying to disparage Ed Miliband. Miliband set out a path for victory for Labour today, but more importantly a better and more prosperous future for Britain and its people.
Fairness is something that us anathema to the Tory led coalition, yet it chimes with the public mood and the sense of fair play by the British people. On this Labour and only Labour will deliver and Ed Miliband is well placed to lead this as he has already shown great courage and resilience over Murdoch, News Corp et al.
10 January 2012 10:32PM
The Blairite Zombies led by Cameron the zombie in chief,soon to be crowned king Zombie when the old witch finally pops her clog's.
10 January 2012 10:33PM
This sounds like a prison film where the character has to beat up someone to avoid becoming a "bitch".
Picking internal fights is risky. If he wins, Ed Miliband gains in stature amongst some but risks looking like a bickering sort to others, after all he's already shanked his brother. There's also the possibility he loses and Labour is dragged into in-fighting and spats. We had enough of this under Gordon Brown.
10 January 2012 10:35PM
Yes Seumus, very nice, no problem. Except that yours is about the tenth CiF article in a week which says exactly the same thing about Miliband, in more or less exactly the same way. HEY, CIF EDITORS, WE'VE GOT THE MESSAGE, OKAY??!!
10 January 2012 10:35PM
...what country is that - the United Kingdom?
Tell you what - regardless of how 'ugly' or 'weird' his detractors reckon he might be - if he don't do something PRONTO to sort out the Labour vacumn in Scotland, then he and his party WILL become a national irrelevance come the next election.
10 January 2012 10:36PM
He should get rid off from Shadow cabinet those who do not support him.
10 January 2012 10:37PM
Balls 'is being vindicated by events.' Total nonsense. All of Europe are now having to follow the actions of the coalition and make big cuts. There is not one country that is following Balls plan, to borrow for growth. If the UK did this it would lose its AAA rating and our borrowing would be considerably more expensive.
10 January 2012 10:38PM
Yes, quite right. He will have to turn rhetoric into reality. Unfortunately he can't. It is all very well to write newspaper columns harking back to the fantasies of socialism. Do that as a politician and you are toast.
Why? Because the inherent contradictions of socialism always result in the very people it claims to be working for losing out. Socialism means stagnation, impoverishment and failure. The electorate know that.
10 January 2012 10:38PM
Why do you think the English will keep voting for these morons when Scotland has letf?
10 January 2012 10:39PM
NO NO NO....Austerity appears to be failing until you look at Labours alternative which is to borrow more and not cut back so fast...The result would be high interest rates like Italy and France which would dig us deeper into the mire.
Think about the effect if Mortgage rates went up as a result of these measures...Reposetions, less money in the economy and never being able to repay our debt. Labour got us into this....what makes them think they can get us out!!!
10 January 2012 10:43PM
Interesting article, different from the Millipede is ugly or Millipede is gormless ones. It actually mentions Policy. That is a new word for Ed, no one he is used to hearing, Seumas is actually articulating the kind of policies that Ed's backers - Unite, PCS & Unison like to hear. Forget about the debt - that's so New Labour, we must look to pastures new & greener. Borrow more, the brothers demand it.
The problem for Ed is that he is between a rock & a hard place. Labour only won three elections under Blair who certainly wasn't in the Union's pockets, can Ed avoid the fate of Labour leaders between1979 & 1996? Seamas's advice would lead him back into disaster.
I wonder if right thinking people should warn him!
10 January 2012 10:44PM
He's pandering to the Daily Hate/Squeezed Middle brigade by throwing the most vulnerable, such as the disabled and unemployed, to the dogs - and worse he's standing by and watching the ravaging...
Like all those Tory-lite Blairites the man's a disgrace to the Labour Party.
Shameful.
10 January 2012 10:44PM
Are you for real your capitalist idiots were responsible for the last crash and socialists sorted it out, if you think the same response will save capitalism this time you must think water flows up hill.
10 January 2012 10:44PM
Or, for a more balanced and less hysterical analysis of the challenges confronting Labour, you could read this.
10 January 2012 10:48PM
He's been leader for well over a year now - he should have started 'fighting' back in September 2010. His ditherings and sitting on the fence has shown him up for what he is - a coward!
10 January 2012 10:48PM
Such an erudite comment, it does really enhance the debate.
Such a shame that a Comment Forum is lowered by such remarks.
10 January 2012 10:49PM
YouGov/Sun – CON 40%, LAB 40%, LD 10%
10 JAN 2012
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
shouldn't labour be well ahead ? and this is without a civil war in the labour party,
TOAST
10 January 2012 10:49PM
can no one offer an economic model that is coherent, thorough, and just? is britain doing so well that 'cut and paste' is the limit of ambition?
perhaps there are some principles that are generally applicable?
such as: everyone works, everyone earns a living, no one makes a quid by gouging others, and there is no need to collect money in private wealth.
or, submit your own, would-be alexander of parliament, but knock off the pious platitudes of wealth and position, because bandits in big suits are no less bandits, and visibly so.
10 January 2012 10:50PM
Polly-lite?
10 January 2012 10:51PM
Voters drip-fed on a relentlessly biased newspapers and BBC?
Labour will continue to get blamed for everything.
Tories got 13 years mileage from the Winter of Discontent, remember.
Dont forget the Boundary changes, either
10 January 2012 10:56PM
David Cameron isn't concerned about 'responsible capitalism'. His limp and knowingly symbolic but ineffectual veto given to shareholders lacks bite and he knows it. It's simply a meaningless gimmick. A defensive maneuver on the Westminster chessboard to dilute any future attempts by Milliband to outflank the Government and to sandbag the Government's defence just in case the unlikely scenario occurs where New Labour will be given enough wriggle room by an austerity compliant media to expose one of the most glaring chinks in the coalition's armour.
Of course now Cameron can point to this meaningless PR stunt as surefire evidence that the Government has taken a tougher stance on executive pay than New Labour managed throughout their term in office. That New Labour are vulnerable to such an accusation is true but disingenous from a Tory Party that has barely raised this issue at all in the past. No doubt much will be made now of how Cameron has 'stolen Milliband's march' on the subject of boardroom pay and how again Cameron has made giant strides ahead of his opponent by leaving him in his wake and puncturing his momentum before it becomes the merest of threats. Cameron will again be anointed knight of the noble realm of political swordplay and again crowned for the glorious spin merchant and 'shrewd' operator he only is because the media portray him positively as such.
For instance, when New Labour have relented to conventional Tory wisdom (like they have many times under Blair, Brown and now Miliband's leadership) it is merely mocked by the media as New Labour cynically stealing Tory policy and playing politics with ideology simply for the sake of power. Which sadly, pretty much sums up the Blair and Brown years in a nutshell. Mild Ed thought he could get away with a bland but principled withdrawl from the reactionary conservatism of New Labour but soon surrendered back into familiar New Labour territory and the 'squeezed middle' when a barrage of New Labour Blairites sudddenly appeared all over the media, very often more than willing to back the Tory establishment's media consensus that New Labour had to 'get real' as if any challenge to unrestrained austerity was the second coming of Che Guevara.
The message was clear. New Labour may not be popular in the media when the real Tories are the star of the show but they sure as hell are more popular than making the country's second major party anything but an ineffectual ideological reflection of the party in blue. If New Labour are to budge an inch from the New Labour manifesto of Blairism then it is nothing but political suicide. This is a message propagated by a negative media that wants to lead New Labour down a path of irrelevance, comfortable in the knowledge that when the Tories eventually falter their mirror image can step in their shoes for a while as a last resort.
But a last resort it most certainly will be. For though the message relayed from the media may be all out attack with a backchanneled suggestion that they will retreat a step or two should New Labour appoint a Blair clone like Milliband if New Labour do this they will simply be playing into the Tories and their media colleagues hands. Even though any deviation at all, even the minimal retraction from Milliband from austerity obliteration that New Labour are currently adhering to is curently being displayed in every section of the media as New Labour having to prove that they are 'living in the real world' any urge to succomb to this bombardment would be fatal. Not just for democracy (though that died sometime ago, May 1997 if memory serves me correct) but for a gullible and careerist New Labour that somehow believes that its enemies will put on the kid gloves once they again start singing to the Tory hymn sheet without even the slightest mutterings of dissent.
Sadly, I believe the New Labourites will have their way and New Labour will resoundingly concur with the mainstream consensus that it is austerity for one, austerity for all and nothing else but austerity in a deluded belief that this will make New Labour more 'convincing' to the electorate. This will be a big mistake though. The media have the Government they want and would merely capitalise on New Labour's repositioning as 'insincere' and a testament that Cameron was right all along. You see, even the right-wing brand of New Labourism is too timid for the media establishment. You see, when New Labour manipulate the system to win power they leave themselves open to tracherous accusations of doing what it takes to gain power, which no doubt, like the Lib Dems, they will. And alternatively, when the Tories do similar U-turns, change course and flip flop from one soundbite to another it instantly gets portrayed in the media as Cameron 'stealing the march' like the 'true leader' he is and proving again to the world how 'shrewd' and 'media savvy' he really is. It's the synthetic qualities that resonate in 2012.
10 January 2012 10:58PM
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10 January 2012 10:58PM
Ed's definitely on the right track but he's certainly got his work cut out for him.
10 January 2012 10:59PM
Thanks for making the point that Ed Miliband actually did alright in the Today interview. You wouldn't know it from the coverage it's received.
It was Humphries that came off badly - he was hectoring, unnecessarily aggressive and asked downright embarrassing questions. ("Robin Cook didn't run for Leader because he thought he was too ugly. Any...er...thoughts on that?" I'm paraphrasing, but only a bit.)
10 January 2012 10:59PM
Perhaps many believe that Labour was to blame for everything.
After all it would be a very imaginative writer who could have made up the Brown - Blair tales along with the Third Man. Somethings are actually stranger than fiction. May be Hollywood should be making a new Death Wish film, Death Wish 10 - an ego busting event.
10 January 2012 11:00PM
According to research carried out by the Tullett Prebon Group, taking private and public borrowing together, Britain had to borrow 2.18 pounds to generate 1.00 pounds of growth during the last government's tenure. If austerity isn't the solution, then neither is borrowing.
Given that the Chancellor has successfully met his borrowing target for 2011 (the calendar, not the fiscal year), choosing the economic forecast that suits your argument and passing it off as fact isn't going to do your credibility any good.
10 January 2012 11:03PM
Buoyed up by articles 'Why does Ed Milliband speak like he does' or 'Can you be too ugly for Politics'? To name but two pieces to add to the sledging he's had from the Guardian alone over the past few days, let alone the opprobrium from the right wing media, so thanks Seumas for writing something sensible as it makes a welcome change.
I don't like him using the word 'fairness', because it's associated so much with Clegg, apart from that his speech delivered the points he wanted to make, hopefully the public might read about it if it's not buried under another character assassination masquerading as indepth journalism.
10 January 2012 11:03PM
Stop depressing me,I found Labour disappointing but this lot are pure evil.
10 January 2012 11:04PM
Good call Seumas.
Btw, has anyone told that jerk Cameron that he's a prime minister and not a president. I know it started under Yo Blair, but this 'Americanisation' of British politics with the emphasis upon 'style over substance' is just total crap.
10 January 2012 11:05PM
We're a long way from an election. The state of the polls right now might help decide how long Miliband stays leader of the opposition, but it matters diddly squat to the outcome of the next election.
Besides, given the margin of error in polls, either party could be ahead.
10 January 2012 11:10PM
The $15 trillion US debt is a time bomb ticking away beneath the entire global economy, not least because there is absolutely nobody in the US who has a bloody clue what to do about it, other than close his eyes and pray for a miracle.
he best thing you can say about this "strategy" is that so far it is working.
Like the guy jumping off the Empire State Building and passing the 10th floor.
10 January 2012 11:10PM
This is what he said
The repetition of the same thing over and over again in the speech is clear enough. It's not the work of spinners.
He did but he never really told us what he means.
I agree about the Blairite zombies but it is hard to move in the PLP without bumping into one of them. To overcome that Miliband would have to do something outside of normal Labour Leader tactics: he would have to launch and genuine debate within his party and set out a case that can win the membership.
I'm sure he can but I don't believe that is the central problem. The central problem is lack of analysis and lack of radical policies.
That is clearly true.
Yes, and where is Labour while Gove is smashing the education system? Nowhere.
Amazingly so.
Indeed. The over 75s are 7.5% of the population and not all of them are poor.
Amen to that, but so far he has shown little sign of being up for such a fight. And, to repeat, if he is going to do this he needs to involve the Party as a whole.
10 January 2012 11:12PM
You're quite right. Scotland has indeed stopped voting Labour.
10 January 2012 11:13PM
Apparently a new name was almost chosen in an attempt to emphasise the party's left of centre credentials to drag old voters back into the fold; the Workers And Not Kings Ever Rightous Stand party. It was an idea sent over recently from a grinning Tony in America to help New Labour in the polls; the Blairites loved it. Somehow it was dropped, but that certainly was not Ed's decision.
For fucks sake, the party needs a good enema, a night of the Long Knives. These wankers are never going to get elected even against a shambling bunch of incapable, lying, chinless Bullingdon tossers and that is just not good enough for the ordinary, decent, hard working people of this country who give 100% and get shit on from a great height again and again again. For this country to even dare call itself a democracy-which it is not in real terms-the people need a genuine OPPOSITION party with courage, passion and a different economic ideology. What they have is Ed- Life of Bwian-Milliband and a bunch of neocon seeds waiting their turn to bloom. Fuckin disgraceful.
10 January 2012 11:13PM
What is wrong with Blairites. Tony Blair took a party that was like the Socialist Unity Party of Germany and turned it into a desirable centre ground Clintonesque Democratic Party. He won three election, he must have done something right.
10 January 2012 11:16PM
....as the apothecaries of austerity become more corpulent by the day.
10 January 2012 11:17PM
Labour had their 13 year stint.
At the very least, Ed needs to issue a public apology for the likes of (to name 3 examples):
- PFI
- top-up fees (for introducing them at all)
- "bog-standard comprehensives"
...and perhaps his erstwhile support might come trickling back. I would doubt it, though
10 January 2012 11:17PM
Perhaps England should get the message that the Conservatives are evil.
10 January 2012 11:18PM
Thanks for that. I make it four mentions of "less money", two of "much less money", and sundry "savings" etc.
Which shows Miliband to be rather more in touch with reality that Seumas Milne.
10 January 2012 11:19PM
" Inherent contradictions " of socialism??
What is next?
"Bosses of all lands unite? You 've got nothing to loose but your bonuses"
10 January 2012 11:23PM
The problem now is that this government are taking Labours failures too an extreme.like PFI and the rest.
10 January 2012 11:32PM
He had conference last year to sell himself as an individual. How many members of the public could describe the main tenets of his argument a week, let alone 5 months later. Now his career is in danger, Ed is desperate to tell us things we'd like to hear, but he seems unable to determine exactly who 'we' are.
10 January 2012 11:33PM
The problem is that the 3 examples I mentioned should be completely contrary to basic Labour party principles. To apologise now for these (and others) immediately draws the line in the sand.
"...the Labour party is a moral crusade, or it is nothing"
c/f the meltdown in Scotland (previously taken for granted for over 50 years)
10 January 2012 11:35PM
Exposing democracy. it would be extremely helpful if this paper included the number of party members in Labour constituencies. It may be the case, that a few hundred people only are involved in candidate selection, or worse chosen at National HQ.
In our industrial past, Safe seat Labour Towns were fully inclusive. Union meetings allowed workers to mix with perspective candidates, and p.c. bull shit would have been given short shift.
This is when the party was inclusive and representative. Now it has been highjacked by Oxbridge types, who, if anything like Peter Peston or Diane Abbot, disrespect the group of people who created the party.
When the ubiquitous posters who seem blinded by tribalism come to their senses, and perhaps realise the problem is not the Tories, it is the system and this needs changing , not the colour of the ties on the government bench.
10 January 2012 11:36PM
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10 January 2012 11:50PM
I like you, Seumas, you're different to the other boys round here, but did you get this idea from a David Attenborough documentary? A lot of us would settle for Ed picking a few fights with Cameron and winning. He does need to establish authority but a few wins would shut the coterie of 'zombies' up, if that's what they are. In any case they are far less dangerous to Ed than the growing coalition of rank and file Labour people who are struggling to 'believe' for many reasons. Many party members didn't vote for Ed, first choice, but are still hanging in there and giving him a fair hearing. I like Ed, what's not to like, he's totally on the money politically, good with people informally as we saw in the riots when he was the only party leader who could talk to people. But it's a complete myth that Ed has some vision or USP distinct from his bro who is also very bright policy wise and is, I'm sorry, I'm not a war criminal or anything, a much better orator, and that has always mattered in politics. The best thing would be reconciliation and redemption for both sides. It would kill Cameron if the factions worked together, he's only got one very tedious line of attack, let's disarm him. Co-operation can and does work.
10 January 2012 11:50PM
The problem is, he didnt turn it into a Clintonesque Democratic party. He gave it that veneer, sold it to the public, partly through his own presentational brilliance, and partly through the complete collapse of effective PR under the Major led Tories, and presided over a government still comprising, and influenced by, a generation of 60's student radicals who had caused civil war in the Labour party in the 80s and used local government as their powerbase before entering parliament. He has a lot to answer for... not the least of which is using Labour as the vehicle for his talent, and giving such people three election victories and 13 years to put their theories into effect.
10 January 2012 11:57PM
This is a refreshing article. I like the analysis but I wonder at the motives of the Blairite Zombies. They must be in politics to head for that revolving door into business, and they do not want to let doing good for the people spoil it.
Miliband has been very successful, I believe, overall. He has attacked appropriately and effectively ever since he became the leader of the opposition. From the personal photographer to all of the broken promises on the EMA, the NHS, child benefit and welfare, he has been excellent at bringing Cameron to book. Cameron has resorted to childish insults, and this to any sensible observer, is a weakness in Cameron, and a sign of dishonesty.
Miliband was brilliant in his attack on Murdoch, which many applauded him for.
It is hard not to believe that some of the Blairites should join the coalition, and let the real Labour MPS do their proper job of representing the poor and the middle classes. Their stance shows such incompetence, arrogance and lack of Labour principles in the face of such a callous and incompetent government who are driving this country into a slump. The attacks on housing benefit, the NHS, rising unemployment, will lead to shelter and food insecurity, and all these New Labour MPs can think of is "we have got to be more Tory to get back into power" and watching that revolving door.
The problem with many politicians at the moment is explained by Steve Keen, an Australian Professor of economics. He states In an interview on the BBC that classical economists and politicians are stuck in the neoliberal mould, and only think of borrowing from banks, and living within their means and paying off debts.
He believes that it is going to take a politician with the brains and statemanship to think outside the box and change the whole money system. Banks are creating too much money as debt, and if we stick with this we will be in a slow growth/depression for two decades, like Japan. Government shouldcreate money and stop indebtedness to banks. Miliband needs a revolution in reform to improve on the past thirty years of neoliberalism.