It's New Hampshire primary result night – and you could cut the tension with a baseball bat. As Newt Gingrich would say, let's be frank: barring an upset of apocalyptic proportions Mitt Romney not only has this in the bag but is already half-way to South Carolina.
But politics is a complex beast and just winning in New Hampshire isn't enough – it's by how much and over who that makes tonight's results important.
We could speculate on the possibilities of Romney losing but they are so slim that we may as well discuss the awesomeness of unicorns.
For the candidates not named Romney, it's not the winning but the taking part that counts.
To make sense of the result tonight, think of it as four individual elections:
1. Mitt Romney versus Mitt Romney
Will Romney 2012 edition do better than the Romney 2008 edition? In 2008 Mitt got 32%, finishing second to John McCain. If he repeats that result then he is in trouble.
2. Ron Paul versus Jon Huntsman
Jon Huntsman desperately needs a second place finish to stay credible and win some airtime, and to do so he needs to overtake Ron Paul. Paul flattered to deceive in Iowa, consistantly polling second but finishing third. Will he do so again? And does Paul have a 20% ceiling that he just can't break in terms of support?
3. Rick Santorum versus Newt Gingrich
A fifth place finish would be a disaster for Santorum, since it would reinforce the idea that his Iowa result was a one-off, thanks to the conservative eco-system of Iowa and his focus there, and nothing to do with Santorum as a possible candidate. Gingrich too needs to do better, to show that his Occupy Mitt Romney routine carries any weight with Republican voters.
4. Rick Perry versus Buddy Roemer
Perry had a miserable result in Iowa and according to the polls is due for an even worse result this time out. Maybe he should have stayed in Texas. If he loses to the submarine-profiled Buddy Roemer then the voices calling on him to quit will grow louder, even before South Carolina.
Polls don't officially close until 8pm but many will have closed at 7pm – and the exit polls are starting to come through, so here we go.
decided to repeat it tonight. I can reveal that among the prizes is a "Why Women Love Rick Santorum" button badge, as well as the obligatory Guardian pencil.
Our contest to predict the result of the Iowa caucuses was such a runaway success that we have![Placards in Manchester, New Hampshire](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/web/20120111164736im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/audio/video/2012/1/10/1326219812574/Placards-in-Manchester-Ne-007.jpg)
In the traditional manner of American elections, the television networks and the Associated Press will call the result when they have enough information from the count to match their exit polls and forecasting.
In case like this one, my guess is that the networks will call the primary for Mitt Romney within nanoseconds of the polls closing at 8pm ET. That's usually the end of things. But not tonight.
live updating results from New Hampshire – and a recap of the Iowa poll – here.
We haveThe first actual results are coming in from places were polls closed earlier. Mitt Romney has steamed ahead with results from the first three precincts showing him on 38%, followed by Ron Paul with 23%, Jon Huntsman with 16%, Newt Gingrich with 11% and Rick Santorum on 9%.
Early days! That's three out of 301 precincts.
Who would want to be chair in history at the University of Southern New Hampshire after reading this tweet from a Washington Post blogger?
Oh, not that sort of chair. Carry on.
The Guardian's Stuart Millar reports an "air of anticipation" at the Jon Huntsman watch party in New Hampshire.
Staples ads are currently running on Fox News during its primary coverage – so that's another Super Pac for Romney I suppose.
(Staples was one of the companies funded by Bain Capital while Romney was chief executive, when Romney wasn't between diving into a Scrooge McDuck-style swimming pool full of money from downsizing and outsourcing.)
With 5% of precincts counted, so far President Obama is floundering with a mere 73% of the vote, followed by a candidate named Total Write-Ins with 15%. Somewhere, Obama campaign boss Bill Burton is already giving off-the-record briefings to Politico, saying that Total Write-Ins is "a kook" with ties to Ralph Nader and Dennis Kucinich.
Proof that Mitt Romney is going downhill:
Another win for Buzzfeed Politics. As Butch Cassidy once said: Who are these guys?
As the poll close, Fox News and CNN have called the New Hampshire race for Mitt Romney. Fox is projecting a "significant" win, and that Ron Paul will finished second, and Jon Hunstman third.
Fox News is also calling Rick Perry a big fat loser and finishing last. So as far as Fox is concerned, the big drama is whether Gingrich or Santorum will finish fourth. Seriously.
CNN has some more detail on its exit polls and this is more interesting: according to the exits, Mitt Romney gets 36%. Underwhelming if not awful. Among Republican voters alone Romney got 45% so that's better, in terms of making headway with winning over Republicans grassroots.
The Guardian's Gary Younge emails to ask: "When's the last time a Republican nominee won both Iowa and New Hampshire in a contested campaign?"
According to AP, "A Romney victory would make him the first Republican to sweep the first two contests in a competitive race since Iowa gained the lead-off spot in presidential campaigns in 1976."
But the records show that in 1976, Gerald Ford beat Ronald Reagan in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, so I'm not sure what Romneyesque word play AP means exactly.
![Ron Paul in Manchester, New Hampshire](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/web/20120111164736im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/audio/video/2012/1/10/1326238731322/Ron-Paul-in-Manchester-Ne-007.jpg)
The slowcoaches at CNN are now also projecting that Ron Paul gets the silver medal and Huntsman comes third, a good 20 minutes after Fox News did the same thing.
So for the second week in a row Rick Santorum is locked in an epic, too-tight-to-call, contest. Except that last time it was with Mitt Romney for first place in Iowa. Tonight it's for fourth place against Newt Gingrich. A week really is a long time in politics.
At the moment Gingrich is ahead by 77 votes. So it's just like Iowa, except that it isn't.
Mitt Romney is on stage now and milking, as you'd expect, veering between Reaganesque shining-cities-on-the-hills and Obama-bashing.
"President Obama wants to put free enterprise on trial and in the last few days we've seen a few desperate Republicans joining forces with him," says Romney, in rather a dull monotone.
Mitt is just giving the Mitt Romney General Election Speech, with plenty of nonsense about Obama being a Euro-socialist. We may be hearing this many many times between now and November, so get used to it.
Interesting point: back in 2008, John McCain won the New Hampshire primary with 38% of the vote. Can Romney beat that?
With 22% of the precincts in, Romney's on 35%, just 10 points ahead of Ron Paul on 25%. If that gap erodes, Romney's victory looks less and less impressive.
The Guardian has correspondents at the results parties of the top three placed candidates. Let's get the mood at all of them, starting with Ewen MacAskill at the Mitt Romney event.
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The Romney campaign is celebrating in the dining centre of at a university campus on the outskirts of Manchester. Although it looks noisy and crowded on television – the main purpose for these things – it was strangely subdued, partly because of tight restrictions on entry. The Romney campaign blamed fire marshals for restricting the numbers.
Romney supporters said they were undismayed by the attacks on the candidates in recent days over his time as chief executive at Bain Capital, laying off thousands of workers. Terry Stewart, 53), who runs a small business and lives in Hudson, New Hampshire, was among those denied entry and was heading for home. But it did not dampen her enthusiasm for the candidate.
"I think he is the best person to turn the country round," she said. As for Bain company, she was unconcerned. "This is what business is about. As a small business owner, I know we have to make hard decisions to turn a company round."
Romney as a Mormon does not drink either coffee or alcohol. Journalists, though, had access to both.
The Guardian's Adam Gabbatt is at Ron Paul's watch party, where the mood is jubilant after the exit polls suggest a strong second place for the Republican maverick.
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Ron Paul's results party at the Executive Court, near Manchester, is warming up quickly with about 400 people packed into the venue.
A spontaneous chant of "President Paul" broke out just now, with star-spangled banners and Ron Paul paraphernalia being waved aloft – only for a campaign official to ask that the banners be lowered to allow television cameras a view of the stage.
Joan Bastek, 47, was loitering beside the free buffet with a big smile on her face. "This is great," she said, clarifying that he was referring to the atmosphere. "I think he'll do great."
But can he beat Romney? "Yes, I think he can. This is so much better than 2008. I think [the polls] are wrong. They've been wrong before."
Brandon Ashley, 28, was wearing a white Ron Paul baseball cap. "It's gonna be close," he said. "If he doesn't win, there's now a clear movement, and I would consider that a win, people realising that Ron Paul is a viable candidate."
Stuart Millar is in Manchester at the election party of Jon Huntsman, where supporters are in subdued mood following the former ambassador's projected third place.
At Jon Huntsman's packed primary night party in the Black Brimmer pub, Manchester, supporters were struggling to put a brave face on his third place finish. As the result filtered out to the boisterous crowd, a few started chanting "Country first", the Huntsman slogan.
"I'm disappointed and relieved," said Connie from Manchester, who would only give her first name. "A few weeks ago I would have been happy with third, but I had started to think he might come second." But she believes that Huntsman is right to stay in the race. "He absolutely should keep going. He's starting to get traction now, and he wasn't getting it at all before."
Brendan Powers, a 28-year-old history teacher from Peabody, Massachusetts, agreed: "He's the only sane person in the race. He has to keep going, even though he will get crushed in South Carolina. But he's just prepping for 2016 and he'll come back stronger."
He insisted third place in New Hampshire was a decent result: "He's always said he wanted to outperform market expectations and he has done that tonight, even though he's barely managed it."
Powers, who said he had started supporting Huntsman after becoming disillusioned with Barack Obama. But when the inevitable happens and Huntsman drops out, would he vote for Mitt Romney? "I would have to dwell on that," he said.
Ron Paul was talking to a very, very enthusiastic crowd just now. He only has to give the word and Ben Bernanke will be defenestrated.
Ewen MacAskill sums up the mood at Romney party headquarters thus:
Other reporters at the Romney celebrations describe his supporters as "pumped up" and "delirious". And supporters leaving after Romney's speech were declaring themselves to be ecstatic. But to me it did not seem that big a deal, at least not in comparison with the atmosphere at similar Obama victory speeches in 2008.
Here's why Ewen is right to be sceptical: Republican turnout was actually down compared with 2008, suggesting that there isn't a huge groundswell of enthusiasm out there. It may be that Romney actually gets more or less the same number of votes as he got in 2008.
![Mitt Romney victory](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/web/20120111164736im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/audio/video/2012/1/11/1326249818374/Mitt-Romney-victory-007.jpg)
Back to the knife-edge battle between Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum: with 46% of precincts in, Gingrich is a mere 74 votes ahead of Santorum. So, basically they are tied.
At the top of the table, Romney is stretching his lead. He's now 13 percentage points ahead of Ron Paul, on 37% to Paul's 24%.
Tim Carney of the Washington Examiner uses an apt sports metaphor:
Sarah Palin was on Fox News! Palin is not impressed by Mitt Romney's victory, labelling New Hampshire a "centre-left state":
Not an earth shattering result, I think Ron Paul's showing was a bit of a surprise … I think he's going to shift the debate in the next few days.
Well, Todd Palin came out in support of Newt Gingrich, so maybe Sarah Palin is preparing the ground to … endorse Ron Paul?
But Fox News had to suddenly cut away from Palin to hear third place loser Jon Huntsman flap his jaws.
More from Stuart Millar with the Jon Huntsman crowd in Manchester, where the governor of Utah tried to put a brave face on a disappointing third place.
Huntsman has just finished his speech at his watch party in Manchester and is shaking the hands of his extremely enthusiastic supporters, with his wife and daughters lined up behind him for full televisual effect.
He took the stage just before 9.30pm to cheers of "Country First". His opening line: "Ladies and gentlemen, I think we're in the hunt!" Cue more chanting. Then the main message he's trying to get out tonight: "I'd say third place is a ticket to ride."
Huntsman, who made several references in his speech to the fact that he had lived overseas, told supporters that America faced two problems: the economic deficit – namely $15 trillion of debt – and the trust deficit, in relation to its political leaders.
"The people of this great nation, the greatest nation that ever was, they are tired of being divided," he said. "They want a leadership that will stand up and tell us that we need to come together as Americans in order to solve our problems."
He also got loud applause and a new round of "Country First" chanting for saying it was time to bring the troops home – perhaps recognition of how Paul's anti-war message has resonated with young voters and independents. "Afghanistan is not our future, Iraq is not our future ... If we don't get our act together at home we will see the end of the American century by 2050."
His supporters lapped it up. South Carolina will be harder to convince.
![Jon Huntsman, New Hampshire](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/web/20120111164736im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/audio/video/2012/1/11/1326249576625/Jon-Huntsman-New-Hampshir-007.jpg)
Mini-drama! Rick Santorum has just overtaken Newt Gingrich in the battle of the losers. With 56% of the precincts counted, Sanotrum has 11,741 votes and Gingrich has 11,726 – a 15 votes margin. It really is like Iowa all over again but not really.
Adam Gabbatt was listening to the speech by runner-up Ron Paul.
"President Paul! President Paul!" rang the chants as the Texas congressman took to the stage here in Manchester, clad in his stock outfit of white shirt, blue sweater and dark blazer.
As the cheering died down, Paul said he had called Mitt Romney earlier to congratulate him, but told the baying crowd: "We're nibbling on his heels."
After he thanked his wife Carol and assorted family members, Paul drew one of the biggest cheers came when he gave special praise to Youth for New Hampshire, who have had a big presence in the granite state and are here
big numbers tonight.Perhaps aware of his moment in the spotlight, Paul launched into a extended summary of almost his entire political beliefs, lurching from criticism of national debt to defence spending and a well-received pledge to bring troops home.
"America has been the greatest country ever, it's been the wealthiest country ever, it's had the most prosperous middle class ever, but it's n t that way today," Paul said.
The crowd were loud, but perhaps surprisingly given Paul had well outperformed the polls, some had been expecting even more. "Obviously I'm not happy that he didn't win," said Naomi Gilbert, 27. "I was hoping he'd win. But I don't think Mitt Romney will do well in South Carolina."
Nathaniel Blodgett, 18, was happier. "I am very impressed," he said. "I campaigned in Salem, New Hampshire, and want to campaign again in my home state of Massachusetts."
Around half of the crowd left with Paul, but those who remained are being treated to a DJ, currently playing "Celebration" by Kool and the Gang.
![Ron Paul speaks to supporters in New Hampshire](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/web/20120111164736im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/audio/video/2012/1/11/1326249755380/Ron-Paul-speaks-to-suppor-007.jpg)
Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum have both been speaking in the last few minutes. Gingrich acknowledged that the contest in South Carolina would be tough; Rick Santorum – well, Fox News cut away from him to take Gingrich, which just about tells you all you need to know.
Rick Perry (remember him?) is on Fox News, and repeats his earlier attacks on Mitt Romney's credentials at Bain Capital. He draws a distinction between "venture capitalists" (good!) and "vulture capitalists" (bad!) and vows to continue bringing the issue up. He says of Romney:
He's going to have to face up to this some time or another and South Carolina is as good a place to draw the line in the sand as any.
Yahoo News's Chris Moody reports on chaotic scenes at the Gingrich post-match party as Newt starts speaking at the same time as Rick Santorum.
With results in from 70% of the precincts, there are only 38 votes between the two men.
As the picture of the night becomes clear, Ewen MacAskill rates the field.
![Rick Santorum](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/web/20120111164736im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2012/1/4/1325703043273/Rick-Santorum-002.jpg)
Rick Santorum: loser
The biggest loser of the night was Rick Santorum, unable to capitalise on his late surge in Iowa that brought him to within eight votes of Romney just a week ago. Santorum was the man of the moment then, followed around by the media hordes, attracting big crowds to his meeting curious to see the man who almost beat Romney. He needed to maintain the momentum from Iowa with at least a top three finish and that was denied him.It is possible he could enjoy a revival in South Carolina, where the north-west of the state will be receptive to his anti-gay, traditional family values rhetoric. But the southern part round Charleston will be less receptive. Even Mike Huckabee, who actually won Iowa and won well, could not take South Carolina. So it may turn out that Iowa was Santorum's high point.
Ron Paul: winner
It was a strong second place for a candidate who has for so long been on the margins of US politics. His campaign team does not expect to win the nomination but he can keep the race going for months, building up a bloc of delegates to take to the Republican convention in Florida in August, where the nominee is formally chosen.
Jon Huntsman: loser
A disappointment for a candidate who staked everything on New Hampshire. He needed a second place finish and did not get it. His mixed messages – he presents himself as both the most moderate and the most conservative – did not do the trick in New Hampshire and there is even less chance in South Carolina. He had little organisation or money in New Hampshire, and even less in South Carolina. He could quit after South Carolina or maybe after the fourth of the contests, Florida.
Mitt Romney: winner
History says no candidate has won the nomination after losing Iowa and New Hampshire. So history seems to be on Romney's side. But South Carolina politics can be brutal and he only took 15% there in 2008. If he loses South Carolina, his route to the nomination is no longer smooth. A loss in South Carolina – and Florida, instead of a relatively easy win for Romney, becomes a toss-up state.
Newt Gingrich: loser
Gingrich, high in the polls in New Hampshire in December, has been slowly deflating. But he could come back in South Carolina. He is liked there, at least in the southern part of the state. More importantly, smarting from the multi-million Romney ad campaign against him in Iowa, he is on a mission to destroy and there is only one target: Romney. It promises to be nasty, which Gingrich does well.
Rick Perry: loser
Perry, who did not compete in New Hampshire, sent out a statement saying he had a head start in South Carolina. He has been a joke candidate so far, managing to make George W Bush look polished by comparison. But he still has the money and staff to make an impact. A long shot but South Carolina likes southerners.
![Live blog: recap](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/web/20120111164736im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/04/09/recap1.gif)
So there wasn't any drama out of the New Hampshire primary: the guy that we thought would win, won, and won by the sort of margin that the polls suggested he would.
![Mitt Romney victory](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/web/20120111164736im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/audio/video/2012/1/11/1326249810741/Mitt-Romney-victory-002.jpg)
Even if his final vote total didn't overwhelm any of his rivals with shock and awe, Mitt Romney leaves New Hampshire in a strong position because the rest of the field still hasn't settled on a single anti-Romney candidate.
The second and third place holders in New Hampshire, Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman, will hardly figure in South Carolina. That leaves Romney having to contend with the pygmies who finished well down in New Hampshire, Gingrich, Santorum and Perry, all bickering over over the same end of the electoral spectrum.
Back in 2008, in a similar position, John McCain ended the Republican contest when he came through a South Carolina field divided by Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson splitting the conservative vote. From where I'm sitting, it looks like we are in for a repeat in 2012.
So once again, as it did in 2000 and 2008, South Carolina is where it all happens: a bedrock conservative piece of the Republican heartland. If you can win it there, you can win it anywhere, it's up to you, Mitt Romney, Mitt Romney.
There are some results still to come in, but we're calling it a night there. Thanks for reading and for your comments, and we'll be back with a live blog tomorrow.
Comments
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11 January 2012 12:14AM
Flash. John Sununu declares Romney the winner and announces that all the other contestants have fallen into a, quote, bubbling cauldron of newt spittle. Unquote.
That's enough for me. I'm going to bed.
11 January 2012 12:17AM
Always loved the Primaries, nothing like it in the UK. I used to live in Quebec not far from Derby Line, Vermont and Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. There's a buzz about the New Hampshire Primary that is unlike any other and, especially for the GOP, a good or bad performance there can make or break a candidacy. Fond memories.
11 January 2012 12:28AM
poster in previous liveblog asked about Vermin Supreme, candidate in the Dem primary. Dude is a novelty perrenial candidate who has been advocating rather unconventional issues. In 2004 it was preparedness for the zombie apocalypse. This year he wants to increase government funding of research into time travel. He has a long beard and wears a wizard hat.
Dude is something else, is what I'm saying.
11 January 2012 12:33AM
I wish Sky Sports covered Primary season.
"And it's live!"
Also re: bluemeanies- Vermin Supreme sounds like the kind of candidate the GOP could rally around! He's in the wrong contest.
11 January 2012 12:35AM
Going on the theory that even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day, Mr Kristol-Balls is predicting a Huntsman breakthrough in New Hampshire.
A strong second place taking at least 20% of the vote.
11 January 2012 12:38AM
We had a perennial candidate here in RI called Love22. He's still running for Potus, but he's blessedly relocated his good self to California sometime in the past 25 years or so since i was a college kid. Total crackpot, but his platform is something that i could actually get behind. Totally, in fact.
11 January 2012 12:39AM
http://www.verminsupreme.com/ is what I think is his campaign website, as you can see he is not you typical politician. Though being the only candidate to be a living organ donor is kind of intrigueing. But doesn't seem regularly updated
11 January 2012 12:40AM
btw, who won the prizes from the Iowa Caucuses?
11 January 2012 12:45AM
I'm sure Diebold can manage that.
11 January 2012 12:57AM
So far, all the newspaper predictions are right on the money. This may be a first.
11 January 2012 1:01AM
CNN calls if for Romney. Next: all other primaries cancelled.
11 January 2012 1:05AM
Looking forward to the conspiracy theories from Ron Paul's supporters to explain his loss...
11 January 2012 1:12AM
With 14% in, Romney + Gingrich + Santorum + Perry in at 57%.
In completely unrelated news, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists advances doomsday clock to 5 minutes to midnight.
11 January 2012 1:13AM
Good showing for Paul, so far.
11 January 2012 1:19AM
Sorry, Ron. Sorry, Jon:
18 to 29 year olds = 12% of vote.
30 to 44 = 19% more.
Hello, Mittens:
45 to 64 years = 48%
Oh, look, here come Newt and Frothy and Big Rick:
65 years + = 21%
(per CNN exit polls)
11 January 2012 1:21AM
Romney gets 36%
36%?
36 f***ing %?
He's been running for 4 years and he can only get 36% in essentially his home state against the worst field in living memory.
#they'rejustnotthatintoyou is probably too long for Twitter but if ever there was a hashtag....
11 January 2012 1:22AM
Huntsman deserves a lot of credit. For an invisible man, he sure finds interesting ways to try to scrape out his tiny share of airtime and get himself on the news. Like calling Romney a "Home Boy." Huntsman speaks Chinese, he speaks Grunge, he speaks Hip Hop. Is he trying to give his Mormon Home Boy an image makeover by calling him a New Hampshire Home Boy? No, don't do that. That would kill an entire industry. Romney is so white, he is so Casper Whitebread, he is so square, he's worse than Nixon. If he started flashing banksta signs, hangin' out with dope dealers, calling people "B!tch" and "Dawg" and pimped his ride with fuzzy dice, fake bullet-holes, a chain-link steering wheel, and a bumper sticker that says: "Aks me about the dead Ho' in my trunk," he would do to the Gangsta Rap industry what singer Pat Boone did to Heavy Metal: kill it. Pat Boone, the Van Helsing of Heavy Metal music. Has he endorsed yet?
11 January 2012 1:26AM
kristol - with huntsman stealing some of mitt's vote, who's to say it isn't game on if ronny p gets within 10 points. may be possible if thep ricks combine for negligence. forget mitt's total, it's the spread what counts.
11 January 2012 1:34AM
They're saying that according to form Romney will be nominated, as Ford was in 1976.
That's right, Richard: in 1976, Republicans sensibly preferred Gerald Ford to Ronald Reagan. Hard to believe, isn't it?
11 January 2012 1:35AM
They will probably be too busy celebrating wildly. If he keeps getting at least 20% of the vote he is in a very, very strong position - Romney will not be able to win without his support.
11 January 2012 2:00AM
I doubt the comparison works. As a small business owner, you likely know any person you're laying off yourself, and you do it yourself.
I suspect Romney never even met most of the folks he laid off, and am sure he didn't do the actual firing.
11 January 2012 2:01AM
Romney winning New Hampshire is like an anti-climax without the climax.
11 January 2012 2:05AM
Here is an article that outlines the financial assets of Mr. Romney and the other major Republican candidates showing how they are really are part of the 0.01 percent of Americans that can afford a Presidential run:
http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2012/01/republican-primary-candidates-they.html
11 January 2012 2:06AM
So Mr Plastic is projected to win NH.
From Reagan to now, no Repub candidate has doone an Iowa NH one-two. Kind of impressive.
11 January 2012 2:09AM
Something that I think gets lost in the hordes of Ron Paul supporters screaming that him not winning Iowa and the risk of losing to Huntsman tonight are clear examples of a fix being in place is that almost regardless of the result he's been incredibly successful.
In 2008, against a field that was roughly similar to this one, he gained about 10% of the vote in Iowa... this year he's gained around 21%.
In 2008 in got around 7.7% of the vote in New Hampshite... this year he could realistically triple that.
That's incredibly impressive... for all the talk of Ron Paul having a (relatively) small group of die hard supporters, most of them would have been on-board in 2008... and yet his numbers have surged.
Whatever happens (and I certainly don't expect him to win), he's set the stage for Rand to have one hell of a run is a few years time...
11 January 2012 2:15AM
I'd really like to see some of this European socialism Romney keeps telling us about. Unlike most of his rivals, I suspect Romney is actually smart enough to know that there are virtually no countries in Europe with left-wing parties in power (there's Greece and... er... Portugal?), and he's probably smart enough to know that Europe's very considerable problems do not stem from rampant socialism.
Unfortunately, Romney gets painted as a centrist and a moderate because he can't make up his mind about how much he hates gays and loves foetuses. But the incessant sniping about social policies in American politics is a side issue and (pacem gay and feminist activists of the left) a diversion. To mangle a phrase coined by one of the most right-wing presidents in recent history, it's the economic policy, stupid. Even by the standards of the US, where political office is bought rather than won, Romney is the candidate of big business interests. And he has powerful backers, but it remains to be seen whether they can convince a sceptical electorate that this unlikable corporate stooge and charisma-vacuum represents them.
11 January 2012 2:16AM
By the way, Richard, was it only two months ago you were telling us to get used to saying "President Perry"?
11 January 2012 2:18AM
Eh? Mormons can't drink coffee? Can they drink tea?
11 January 2012 2:23AM
OMG. Did anyone see the bit where Romney was going on about building the biggest f***ing military that nobody would ever dare to challenge?
What an asinine fool. Have these idiots learned nothing from Iraq and Afghanistan?
Where will his colossal militaristic adventure be when he has to cut spending on everything else?
11 January 2012 2:24AM
Why just pick on Republicans? Barack Obama has overseen the biggest theft in human history.
Though the guy was at least fair on Paul so I'll let him off!
11 January 2012 2:25AM
If the legal challenges fail, the Virginia primary will tell us a lot about how the electorate sees both Paul and Romney if it's just the two of them in the contest, especially if it is the case that only registered Republicans are allowed to vote.
11 January 2012 2:25AM
No caffein.
11 January 2012 2:26AM
Really, how so? I thought the trillions lost by the tax cuts of the Bush administration over 8 years (and the additional years the current administration has been stuck with as a result) would have been more.
11 January 2012 2:27AM
Texas is a very strange place, even by American standards.
Yee-Har.
Is Rick Perry up to 500 votes yet?
11 January 2012 2:29AM
They must abstain from caffeine. They can drink herbal teas. At one time I lived out West and worked with Mormans ( non religious setting) and we served something called Sport Cola. It was caffeine free.
11 January 2012 2:34AM
Sixty-two percent, nearly two thirds of NH GOP primary voters rejected Mitt Romney as their nominee for the US Presidency. By what bizarre logic does that make him the winner of this election?
In an electoral system that had integrity and which respected the voters, Romney would now face a run-off with Ron Paul.
The New Hampshire primary shows that the fix is in and that big money interests will deliver the GOP nomination to Romney whatever the voters might think.
11 January 2012 2:35AM
Well that I can understand, I don't understand AP saying this was the first time it happened. Unless by "since 1976" they mean other than 1976. Perhaps I am being stupid.
11 January 2012 2:37AM
Don't get me wrong. I think they're all a bunch of crooks, but many more trillions have been handed to the bankster boys over the last few years as far as I can tell. Not just in the US obviously.
And yeah, Virginia should be interesting. I hope the other guys fail in their court bid because I'd really like to see what happens when Paul and Romney go head to head.
11 January 2012 2:37AM
Wow, never knew that. So are they against any drugs? Say, asperin? Medical intervention?
11 January 2012 2:38AM
Yes, and was I wrong about that eh? My thinking was that any halfwit could beat this field of clowns. Sadly I overestimated Perry by half a wit.
By the way PortalooMassacre, I love your username and avatar. Brilliant.
11 January 2012 2:38AM
So far (with 52% counted), Newt and Frothy are tied at 10% each, with Perry at 1%, and they've been stuck on those numbers all night. Combined with Paul's 23% (it's been as high as 25), that should be a clear 44% for the far right, compared to Mitt's 38%.
But that's merely reality, and according to CNN, 26% of the voters who call themselves "moderate or liberal" seem to think that the amiable old Bircher is one of them (Huntsman has 25%). So I don't know what more there is to conclude about Mitt's exposure on his right, since a significant number of people have agreed to think the old right is the new left. Maybe Mitt was smart to push so far right last weekend (Iran, navy, Huntsman the Quisling) - maybe that helped stiffle Newt and Frothy. However much good it did Huntsman, it wasn't enough to hurt Mitt much.
11 January 2012 2:42AM
That's what it usually means in US journalism. Babe Ruth hasn't hit 60 home runs in a season since 1927. The US hasn't been at war with Japan since 1945.
11 January 2012 2:45AM
Keep in mind the battle of Newt and Frothy vs the 10% cut off. New Hampshire has 12 (I believe; correct me if wrong) convention delegates that will be destributed to all candidates 10% and over proportionally. Not rounded up to 10% but 10%. Santorum I have heard is currently under the bar.
11 January 2012 2:47AM
....and there is the rub. This is not just bankrupting us, it is making us less safe, too. AND KILLING THOUSANDS. How I want Paul to make it to the convention and tell these fools what they advocate is madness.
11 January 2012 2:49AM
So, there's New Hampshire done with. And now this group moves on to South Carolina where evangelical hoo-ha will once again show it's face and Mitt Romney will struggle to convince those people that a Morman is not someone who has come to eat your children. The religious influence in this country is extremely varied and, thankfully, here in New England it is practically non existent.
11 January 2012 2:49AM
Hahahaha.... Yes, I am watching this, too. Mr Newtron and Frothy are both at 9.8%, hope it stays that way.
11 January 2012 2:52AM
5 out of 8 voters don't want Mittens. In the state NEXT TO MASS. Still, it is better than losing.
and it looks like Little Ricky is taking a punch upside the head. Surprises me TBH. Well, if it him or Newt in SC it is going to Newt most likely. So, maybe he has had his 15 minutes.
Anyway, I am good with Rom-bot as the guy. I see Oama beating him handily.
11 January 2012 2:56AM
Re Huntsman- Clinton came a poor third in NH in 92, labeled himself "...the Comeback Kid..." and became a Two-termer. having said that, he is on his way to Redstate-istan now. Could be trouble.
11 January 2012 3:01AM
Do not underestimate Americans disliking of the nanny state
Once a it's down to the last 2 , Romney will loose
Paul will win .
The republican establishment will then launch Jeb Bush as a 3rd party candidate
11 January 2012 3:06AM
The angry snowman will melt in South Carolina.