Assessing Hall of Fame chances of two former Braves

By David O’Brien

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Four former Braves are among 13 first-time candidates on this year’s National Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and it’s safe to assume that Javy Lopez, Brian Jordan, Vinny Castilla and Terry Mulholland won’t be elected. Not now, probably not ever.

But what about two other ex-Braves, holdover HOF candidates Dale Murphy, in his 14th — and next-to-last — year of ballot eligibility, and Fred McGriff in his third year? Neither has previously received even one-third of the writers’ votes required for election.

Will history revisited be kinder to Murph and McGriff, as voters reassess the steroids era and the impact that skewed statistics had on evaluations of other, presumably clean players?

Murphy would need an unprecedented increase in votes this year and next to jump from the 12.6 percent he got last year to the 75 percent needed for election by the Baseball Writers Association of America.

His best hope for enshrinement probably will be with the Veterans Committee at a later date. The committee last month voted in the late Ron Santo, who’ll be part of the Class of 2012. The rest of the class, those elected by the BBWAA, will be announced Monday.

“I don’t vote for Murphy,” FoxSports.com’s Ken Rosenthal said. “I feel badly about it — if ever a guy met the ‘character, integrity, sportsmanship’ criteria in a positive way, it’s him. But his relatively short peak bothers me, and even though we’ve come to understand that batting average is not the best offensive measure, his .265 mark is simply not up to Hall standards.

“I do vote for McGriff. He had a long, consistently excellent career, and his rate stats actually are comparable to Eddie Murray’s.”

Murray was elected to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot in 2003, named on 85.3 percent of ballots.

McGriff hit .284 with 493 homers, 1,550 RBIs and a .377 on-base percentage and .509 slugging percentage in 19 seasons, including five with the Braves. He had 10 seasons of 30 or more homers.

Murphy, a seven-time All-Star, five-time Gold Glove winner and two-time National League MVP (1982-83), finished with a .265 average, .346 OBP, 398 homers and 1,266 RBIs in 18 seasons.

“I don’t vote for Murphy — which kills me because he’s one of the all-time great guys in baseball — in part because he faded a little too quickly,” ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick said. “I consider McGriff a borderline candidate, but I’ve cast a vote for him all three years he’s been on the ballot.

“Murphy has a chance to make it on the Veterans Committee one day, but it’s just so hard to tell where a player stands because they keep changing the composition of the thing. How can Ron Santo fail to make it all those years, then sail in with 14 of 15 votes a year after he [dies]?

“The vote seems to hinge in part on whether a player has someone on the committee championing his cause — the way Billy Williams did for Santo. The process seems way too fickle and arbitrary for me,” Crasnick said.

The steroids issue

Some say the writers’ ballot also has become too arbitrary because of the steroids era and the varying attitudes that voters take toward players from that era.

While McGriff has never been suspected of using performance-enhancing drugs, he played at a time when many players did and turned former standards of power-hitting — i.e., 30 homers in a season — into merely run-of-the-mill stats.

Despite falling just shy of the 500-homer standard that once assured a spot at Cooperstown, McGriff was named on only 17.9 percent of writers’ ballots a year ago. Players remain on the ballot for up to 15 years, as long as they get at least 5 percent of votes each year.

“For me, he’s been a borderline guy and I have not voted for him,” said Scott Miller of CBSSports.com. “But I will tell you this: With each passing year, I’m looking at McGriff’s power numbers with the gnawing feeling that maybe this guy is not getting enough credit for what he’s done.”

Buster Olney of ESPN.com wrote that players such as shortstop Alan Trammell and McGriff “were among the first impacted by steroid use, as they saw their own accomplishments overshadowed by players using performance-enhancing drugs.”

Trammell hit .285 with 185 homers and a .352 OBP in 20 seasons with Detroit, and never made it on as many as 20 percent of ballots in his first eight years of HOF eligibility. He got 24.2 percent last season in his 10th year.

Olney thinks another adverse effect of the steroids era on Hall of Fame voting is going to manifest soon, as a “logjam” begins next year when Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and others linked to steroids become eligible for the Hall. They’re expected to fall short of 75 percent for the forseeable future.

They’ll join Mark McGwire (sixth year on the ballot), Rafael Palmeiro (second) and Jeff Bagwell (second) beneath the dark cloud of steroids suspicions. All have Hall of Fame credentials, but have fallen well short at the ballot box because of links to PEDs — in Bagwell’s case, suspicions apparently based solely on his physique and late-career power.

Because writers are permitted to vote for only up to 10 players on any Hall of Fame ballot, Olney thinks that suspected PED users will siphon votes from clean candidates.

That won’t affect former Braves aces Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, 300-game winners expected to have more than enough votes to become first-ballot Hall of Famers in 2014. But Olney believes it could be tougher for candidates such as pitcher Curt Schilling and ex-Braves ace and closer John Smoltz, who’s eligible for the 2015 class.

“Quite simply, the process will become clogged with former superstars suspected of using PEDs,” said Olney, who theorizes that some writers will vote for players accused of steroids — enough to keep them on the ballot for years, but not enough to get elected.

“I don’t agree with the theory,” Rosenthal said. “The choices always are difficult, but I trust the process. I’m not worried about Smoltz’s candidacy at all. He might not get in first ballot — few players do — but he will get in. And I will vote for him enthusiastically.”

Miller said, “I don’t necessarily agree with [Olney’s] theory and here’s why: So far, a large segment of HOF voters have shown a reluctance to vote for steroid guys. Look at the low vote totals of McGwire and Palmeiro. I know I’m one of them. For me — and others who think like me — there will be plenty of room for a guy like Smoltz on the ballot because, as of now, Sosa and others will not be on my ballot.

“I still think Smoltz has enough respect for all he’s done as both a starter and a closer — and an overall winner — that, for me, he’s a slam dunk Hall of Famer. I really think voters will find a way to put him in whether or not the ballot is clogged with steroid phonies.”

If there is a glut at the ballot box, McGriff is another who could be adversely affected by it.

“I think it helps his cause that he’s perceived as a ‘clean’ player,” Crasnick said, “and most voters are able to view his numbers in the proper context. His big problem is that he’s a member of the ‘very-good-for-a-long-time’ fraternity. He’s a home run hitter who never hit 40 home runs and fell just short of a huge milestone. I equate him to Don Sutton — except that Sutton reached 300 wins, and McGriff fell seven homers short of 500.”

Chicago Tribune writer Phil Rogers said, “McGriff was a great player in the first half of his career but not so much so in the second half, and I think that’s why he hasn’t received more support. While I’m not saying anything about McGriff personally, I’m uncomfortable with the notion that we know certain guys did not use PEDs. The reality is we don’t know who did or did not do anything, and we never will [except for information through the courts or positive tests].

“As unfair as it is to paint everyone with the same brush, it’s naive to declare somebody PED-free because we want them to be or they tell us they were.”

Evaluating the HOF field

(Percentage of votes in 2011 for returners; 75 percent required for election)

Likely to be enshrined this year: Barry Larkin (62.1) — played 19 seasons, all with Cincinnati; 12-time All-Star; nine Silver Slugger awards; only shortstop in “30-30” club; .295 career average, .371 on-base percentage; 198 home runs.

Also could get in this year: Jack Morris (53.5) — three 20-win seasons, 254-186 record, 2,478 strikeouts, 14 Opening Day starts, 4-2 with 2.96 ERA in seven World Series starts.

Might make it, but not this year: Lee Smith (45.3), Jeff Bagwell (41.7), Tim Raines (37.5), Edgar Martinez (32.9), Alan Trammell (24.3), Larry Walker (20.3), Fred McGriff (17.9), Bernie Williams.

Great, but unlikely to make HOF on writers ballot: Mark McGwire (19.8), Don Mattingly (13.6), Dale Murphy (12.6), Rafael Palmeiro (11.0), Juan Gonzalez (5.2).

Very good or great a while, not HOF material: Tim Salmon, Javy Lopez, Ruben Sierra, Vinny Castilla, Brian Jordan, Brad Radke, Jeromy Burnitz, Bill Mueller, Terry Mulholland, Phil Nevin, Tony Womack, Eric Young Sr.