NHC Tropical Cyclone Forecast Verification
Updated 1 March 2012
Contents
- Introduction
- Forecast verification procedures
- Annual NHC verification reports
- Official five-year mean errors and distributions
- Official error trends
- Model error trends
- NHC official forecast error database
- Performance measures and goals
- References
1. Introduction
NHC receives frequent
inquiries on the accuracy and skill of its forecasts and of the
computer models available to it. To help answer these questions,
these verification web pages were established in March 2005. The
development of this resource will be completed in stages;
ultimately all available records dating back to the earliest NHC
forecasts in 1954 will be included. A digital database of NHC
official track forecast errors has been constructed for the
period 1970 to the present, and it is this period that is
presented initially here. A digital database of intensity errors
has been constructed dating back to 1990. These pages will be
updated as extensions to the database are completed. Questions on
NHC forecast verifications may be directed to James.Franklin@noaa.gov.
Note: A number of the
documents included here are in PDF format. You may need to
install the free
Adobe Acrobat (pdf)
to view and print these documents.
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