It was almost like old times as George Osborne announced a blizzard of small measures to boost the struggling British economy in his autumn statement. At one point, as he listed in full the bypasses and rail upgrades the government is planning to finance he sounded like a parody of Gordon Brown.
There were, however, three big differences with a Brown mini-budget. The first was that there was no rabbit pulled out of the hat at the climax of the speech. Osborne pre-announced all the upbeat parts of his speech – the extra money for youth unemployment, the mortgage guarantee scheme, the extra £5bn in infrastructure spending – to make sure they would not be lost when he downgraded Britain's forecasts.
The gloomy tone of the autumn statement was the second break with the Iron Chancellor. Brown was fortunate enough to preside over 10 years of uninterrupted growth in his time at the Treasury, getting out just before the sky fell in. Osborne's message was that growth would be weaker than he had been expecting this year, next year and the year after that, forcing him to borrow £113bn more than he had planned. What is more, the pain goes on and on.
The boom and bust in the economy has left more permanent damage than previously thought, requiring a continuation of spending cuts into the next parliament. Osborne will go into the election with plans that will involve an additional £15bn cut in spending.
Finally, whereas Brown's packages tended to favour poorer families over the rich, Osborne's measures were heavily regressive, taking money away from families on low incomes and public sector workers in order to fund tax breaks for small businesses and the construction firms that will benefit from the extra spending on the infrastructure. Indeed, the announcement of the additional squeeze on public sector pay seemed to be deliberately provocative on the eve of tomorrow's planned strike over pensions.
Comments
29 November 2011 4:18PM
More like Brown presided over 10 years of debt fuelled consumption, massive govt overspending and reckless lending - which everyone thought was growth.
29 November 2011 4:34PM
Brown was ten times the Chancellor Osborne will ever be.
So gawd help us if Osborne ever gets the top job...
29 November 2011 4:35PM
Gideon, if you are reading this, David (Mr. Cameron) has asked that you return his copy of Economics For Dummies forthwith, as he has heard that you may be using it as a masturbatory aid, and he doesn't want the pages all stuck together in a national emergency.
Thankyou.
29 November 2011 4:36PM
Of course hes being provocative on the eve of the strike. This is a class war after all.
29 November 2011 4:57PM
Doubt if luck played any part in Gordon Brown's extraordinary success as our Chancellor. He didn't 'preside over' 10 years of uninterrupted growth; he made it happen.
Hugs
Hernia
29 November 2011 5:07PM
Well, they would do, wouldn't they, because the GDP did grow continuously; that being how economic 'growth' is actually defined.
Plainly you march to a different rhythm. Would you like to explain your economic theories to us? Perhaps we are all wrong-headed on this issue.
Hugs
Hernia
29 November 2011 5:18PM
Dire though things were when Darling was Chancellor he at least got growth moving upwards - the clown boy George has only ever sent it the other way.
Time for someone in No11 who understands how to get out of a hole rather than digging it deeper! Maybe the Bullindon's anthem is "Down, down deeper and down"?
29 November 2011 5:21PM
Come, come now this is surely just hyperbole. It should surely read more like -
Osbournes measures were fully in accordance with the uncertain times, seeking to protect family income in so far as is possible and even increasing child tax credits. Public sector workers were given a very public warning as to the hardships which are likely to continue for some time. There is, unfortunately, little doubt that similar, if less publicised and complained about, pain is sure to follow for workers in the private sector - with very limited if any rises in take home pay for some considerable time. Osbourne pinned his hopes on growth and job creation borne from construction and infrastructure development. Any tax 'breaks' were delayed increases in tax or specifically included to promote growth and generate employment in certain sectors.
Also, any suggestion that 'the good times' during GB's tenure as chancellor were anything but good luck was blown away by the subsequent mismangement which ensued when he got the top job, and the fact nothing was saved for when we most needed it.
29 November 2011 5:24PM
Brown left the city unregulated. Failed to return the UK to a manufacturing economy.
Osborne is hell bent on leaving the city unregulated. The UKs manufacturing is not exactly getting much out of his budgets.
The similarities are compelling. Two neoliberals who believe in the magic fairy dust of banks uber alles.
29 November 2011 5:25PM
Before the election, people kept on "Let's keep class out of this" and to a large extent they did. No one really harked on about Bullingdon and privilege. What a bloody mistake that was, because as soon as this lot got elected they started it from the other end big time. (The shame being the libdems here, Paddy Ashdown was sickening on TV today backing this crap up, totally sickening. Paddy....at least have that "I'm sorry, yes my dog is shitting on your garden I will pick it up when its finished" look on your face when talking about this for heavens sake man!)
I despair when I saw Miliband's jaw hanging slack next to Balls Earlier, this guy isn't going to get the gloves off and take this load of stuck up toffs on.
Don't they realise that we are in this for what dignity we have left? Don't they now see that having been pacified with promises of joining the club people wait their turn for riches or celebrity that they will never get, eat, work, breed fodder, die.
To this mob you are nothing but cattle, consuming cattle. People, as I said we are in it for our dignity, the last self respect we can have, Miliband wont fight it, he's part of it. Cameron and Osborne must piss themselves laughing of an evening asking "They swallowed this load of crap again? ......pass the brandy!"
29 November 2011 5:36PM
In common with most politicians with an economics background, he will be a true believer in the laissez-faire free market neoclassical variety. The fact this model bears little resemblance to reality means he is intellectually ill equipped to deal with the deepening global financial crisis.
He needs to re-examine his ideas on economics, and I suggest he reads ‘False Dawn - The Delusions of Global Capitalism’ by John Gray and ‘Debunking Economics - The Naked Emperor Dethroned’ by Steve Keen, in order to gain some enlightenment.
Sarah Montague interviewed Steve Keen on the BBC's HARDtalk programme last week, and it is well worth watching.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b018ksby/HARDtalk_Steve_Keen_Economist/
29 November 2011 5:40PM
I agree with you. The British nation is being taken for mugs, and being taken for a ride to put it mildly.
This is an unbelievable situation. Britain is in the hands of ideological extremists to whom truth and morality seem to mean very little.
But "don't get mad, get even" has to be our motto or we'll be back to the 1980s. Militancy doesn't work in this situation.
Miliband and Balls are playing a clever game, and unless the coalition are blessed with some sort of miracle, they will win.
29 November 2011 5:51PM
I guess you weren't around much in 08/09, were you?
What actually happened was the best bit of economic crisis management that any of us can remember.
So the Wall Street Crash was All Brown's Fault, was it?
So, the collapse of our Banks was All Brown's Fault was it? Would have been if he'd let it happen but he didn't and that really was All Brown's Fault.
So, restoring growth to c4.5%pa by May 2010 was All Brown's Fault was it? No, not really, 'twas Himself and Alistair Darling wot dunnit.
So, killing growth stone dead by September 2010 was All Brown's Fault was it? Nope, that achievement was Osborne's alone; that thick prat tore up the private sector's order books - at a stroke, 40% of their business cut away.
Hugs
Hernia
29 November 2011 6:01PM
After running a trade deficit for years and now we must pay back our debts. The only answer is a tricky and unexciting blend of austerity, export growth and time. We need a steady approach over 2-3 terms without cheap political point scoring. My greatest fear is that the politicians will yield to public or opposition pressure to pull a rabbit out of the hat. The politicians are not that far apart in their thinking; it would serve the electorate well if they could park petty differences and agree on a ten year plan for getting us out of this mess.
On a lighter note, I've created a playlist of brilliant, witty and clean songs picked from youtube that explain it all http://www.youtube.com/user/carsickphil#g/c/19C751366CFBC185
29 November 2011 6:02PM
Responding to:
Good God. This is surely a joke. What he presided over was 10 years of an unsustainable credit boom followed by an almighty bust! The Labour Party is calling for Keynesian stimulus in the bust (now), but failed to keep any control of the public finances in the boom (when they were in charge). Largely because Gordon had fooled himself that the boom would, and could, never end. He'd abolished the economic cycle, you see. lol
In fact, HerniaW-- you clearly are Gordon Brown and I claim my five pounds!
29 November 2011 6:04PM
George Osborne revisits the days of the Iron Chancellor … minus the rabbit
At least Brown exuded an air of competence, even if this proved to be an illusion.
Unfortunately for him, Osborne just looks like he is completely clueless and out of his depth!
29 November 2011 6:04PM
What a load of nonsense & bias
Despite the woes of the Eurozone & US making a productive rise from recession almost impossible the chancellor hasn't devited from the plan to take a million of the lowest paid out of tax all together with a raise of the thresholds
Benifits & pensions (the worst off in society) are seeing a 5%+ increase thanks to the coalition triple lock mechanism
The coalition is more than doing its share for the worst off, could it do more? Probably, but pandering to the bottom can actually drag more of the middle down there, so the balance is probably almost right.
Bringing forward spending to attract investment in over 500 projects that will benefit the lives of everyone is no small beer either.
Lots of little tweaks to help business is good news, will have to keep an eye on whether they work or not though, because Labour's initiatives were all just headline with hardly any, if any at all business making use of them.
Don't forget a business being helped means its employees are being helped, and the overwhelming majority of us are employed by someone.
A pretty good statement all round really taking into account the dreadful set of cards they were dealt and the game being so heavily rigged against them thanks to other country's economies being so dire.
29 November 2011 6:14PM
Allow me to help. Let's suppose I get a loan from the bank and go on a shopping spree - new clothes, house improvements, new car, expensive holidays, etc. All my friends would think he's done well, must be nice to have all that cash. Then, one day, it would all go wrong. Because I wasn't really rich, I was just pretending to be. Using borrowed money.
Does this help?
29 November 2011 6:27PM
This might also be helpful reading:
Robert Peston - UK debts biggest in world
Note he is talking about total debt, private and public. Brown let them both spiral out of control (private first, public only later).
29 November 2011 6:36PM
Manufacturing was in decline before Labour came to power, what did they do about it? Nothing, the pace of decline increased as Gordon & Co put all our eggs in to the financial basket, this left us exposed to world conditions more so than many comparable countries.
Adding to that problem is a morbidly obese public sector which had billions upon billions pumped into it, to provide a debt fuelled growth in the economy, this was all non-existent money that we're all paying for now & into the future. Killing this growth (as you call it) had to be done, because the money didn't exist.
29 November 2011 6:40PM
This is nuts
The obvious solution ( listen Ed Balls ) is to TAX THE RICH
And tax hard. I repeat we can stop capital flight through the simple method of declaring a bank holiday ( a la FDR 1933 ) and freezing all accounts for 1 week
Then confiscate the money from those who have stolen it ( yes it is theft ) via wealth and estate taxes and a severe levy on bank accounts
The 95% of us in the majority will vote for this very radical action
Why SHOULD WE The People suffer for years so that the rich can get away with it
Come on Ed and Ed ACT NOW
29 November 2011 6:41PM
Hernia,
When the dust has settled in 30 or 40 years the Blair / Brown partnership will almost certainly be viewed as the worst economic management the country has seen in its modern history.
Brown ran an anti-keynesian policy, in that in the good times (he took over after the economy was a few years into its upswing) he not only failed to save, but actually turbocharged the cycle (so yes there was growth, but at huge long term cost) - the very antithesis of Keynesianism. Brown claimed to be running a balanced budget over the cycle except for investment. Well, his invesment was all through PFI, and hence off the governments books. So the deficits on the books were purely deficits of current spending.
In addition to this several problems were beginning to become apparent towards the end of the Major years, the most important being pensions as a result of demographic changes. The Blair / Brown partnership put off even considering any changes until after the 2005 election - a full decade after the civil service had started raising the alarm. The changes to the retirement age (for everyone) and to the level of contributions by public sector workers could have been introduced gradually. Instead, they now have to be introduced quite radically, with all of the pain you can see on these pages.
29 November 2011 6:45PM
For all the gullible people who think that labour overspent
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_debt
Look at the chart half way down comparing over meant debt levels of European countries since 1995
See the uk with lower debt than the others.
See all European debt levels rapidly increasing after 2008- world wide recession and bank bail outs will do that
29 November 2011 6:49PM
Other people have already told you in more detail, but I just wanted to add my voice to the chorus in some small way:
You are unbelievably thick.
29 November 2011 6:53PM
^Credit to payguy above on that graph comparing sovereign debt levels. But regardless of how we arrived here, it's at least a decade of Japan to teach us all a lesson (hopefully one we won't forget). Not the apocalypse, just no growth.
From quick research; since 1992, average growth has been 1-2%. Unemployment is around 5%. Could be worse.
29 November 2011 7:02PM
Not really.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_debt
Look at the chart half way down comparing over meant debt levels of European countries since 1995
See the uk with lower debt than the others.
See all European debt levels rapidly increasing after 2008- world wide recession and bank bail outs will do that.
Gordon, as did Tony, as did John, as did Margaret and as is Gideon all have allowed psychopaths that run commercial banks to control 97% of the UKs money supply. Before Thatcher e Bank of England created a very significant proportion of all new money. The money not created by the Bank was carefully regulated through credit control and only lending on socially productive activities such as mortgages or business investment was allowed. Thatcher abandoned all that (cf Big Bang). Gradually over te last 30 years all regulation of finance has been abandoned. Commercial banks now create 97% of all the money in circulation and for each £1 created the banks of course create a parallel debt of £1 plus interest.
That is why debt is now 500% of GDP.
This isn't to do with Gordon. It is to do with allowing the Bans to run rampant. A situation Gideon is accelerating ( banks provide over 50% of Tory party funding).
Today's budget was a good example. The poor and modest get walloped yet big business and banks get state guarantees, subsidies and cash.
29 November 2011 7:04PM
No we are in a far far worse situation than Japan. The Japanese living standards haven't dropped as fast as the government stabilised the economy with massive QE and public spending program's.
Idiot boy at No 11 is doing the opposite. Expect the economy to go down the pan faster and faster
29 November 2011 7:07PM
When Labour left office ...
We had economic growth of 2 .5 percent in a world banking crisis
Unemployment was stable and contained
The deficit had been revised down by 20 billion and was being paid off resolutely enough to reassure markets
STOP BLAMING LABOUR FOR WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW
this is politically driven and cynical - the British Public are being bled and made to suffer hardship for an idealogical right wing game! A whim!
You watch how suddenly everything will magically improve just before a 2015 General Election
29 November 2011 7:10PM
The only instruments any government in the Uk have allowed over the last 30 years to "influence" private sector debt levels are independent of government
The amount of money banks can create (as debt) is influenced only by the capital adequancy requirements set by the Basel committee in Switzerland. The demand for credit is set by the independent MPC in the Bank.
this has been so and remains so fro 30 years.
Nobody dares to influence or regulate banks. Hence debt levels soaring sky high.
Remember the money supply needs to widen at around 5% year just to prevent the economy going into recession with increasing unemployment.
This new money can only be created by banks lending more into the economy. For every £1 the banks lend a parallel £1 of debt is created. Tats why around £3 trillion of debt was added over the last decade or so.
The alternatives would effect profit margins at banks so it is anathema to politicians who are funded by the bankers.
We should throw them in jail (bankers and many politicians).
29 November 2011 7:17PM
Government debt under Labour was at a very similar to debt under the
preceding Conservative governments, and at times lower. Moreover, the
Conservatives had pledged to match and surpass Labour's spending in
the years prior to the recession. E.g.: from the Telegraph, which is hardly
a left-leaning publication:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1562023/Tories-vow-to-match-Labour-spending.html
This is what George Osborne said in 2007:
"[...] under a Conservative government, there will be real increases in
spending on public services, year after year"
Those increases are increases beyond what Gordon Brown had already
committed to spending.
That may seem unrealistic now, but at the time very few saw the recession
coming. There had been a long unbroken period of economic growth and as
bizarre as it might appear today, it was widely expected to continue. That was
the consensus view then.
29 November 2011 7:21PM
The hunger chancellor
If it snows this winter we're doomed.........
29 November 2011 7:24PM
What a ridiculous, partisan, inept statement; if Larry Elliott had any journalistic integrity he would retract now.
I can see how the review in 2015 it is going to go: It just been five years of horrifically bad luck; just like before 1997.
We had thirty years of a proto Cameron/Osborne government in Brazil; guess what? Our luck did not change until they were finally kicked out.
29 November 2011 7:55PM
Or rather very few politicians or finance people, with their evil vested interests, were talking publicly about the bubble they were quite consciously creating.
Can I refer you to some pertinent lyrics from a bloody pop record from bloody 2005:
29 November 2011 8:42PM
A very strange Tory decision to try and further fan the flames of their battle with the public sector..
When well over 60% of the public support the strike.
They think it's 1979 again.. it isn't.
They really are turning into a bad argument for an Eton education.
29 November 2011 9:25PM
BBC2 right now.
'Money - Who Wants to be a Millionaire?'... all about gullible people and 'wealth consultants' - and and awful lot of buy to let property speculators.
Gordon Brown's legacy.
29 November 2011 9:47PM
The Iron Chancellors 'rabbitless' autumn statement may be about to back fire given this post on Zero Hedge, quoting the rating agency Fitch's comments about his autumn statement. In effect Fitch is questioning the UK's ability to retain its AAA credit rating, implying austerity could become much worse.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldmans-sigma-x-spot-once-again-predicts-imminent-uk-contagion
The last paragraph of their statement says it all.
As with some other major 'AAA'-rated sovereigns, unless off-setting measures were adopted, the capacity of UK public finances to absorb adverse economic and financial shocks that would result in yet higher public debt while retaining its 'AAA' status has largely been exhausted
30 November 2011 11:58AM
1. Nigel Lawson put all our eggs in one basket - remember the Big Bang / "Making stuff is so yesterday - so let's make MONEY and loadsofit".
2. You still cannot grasp that the 'billions upon billions' was not pumped into 'morbidly obese public sector'; it was all spent in the private sector - who built the roads, the hospitals, repaired the schools etc etc etc.
Try to figure out how Britain actually works, there's a dear
Hugs
Hernia
30 November 2011 8:03PM
And now he's sawing the lady in half.
Nothing to worry about.
1 December 2011 4:17AM
What's so amazing is that clearly the real problem is the large amount of private debt yet the Tory Vampire Chancellor proceeds to drain the life blood out the body public so that it has even less chance of repaying this private debt. You couldn't make this story of complete and utter ideologically driven madness if you tried. Of course, what makes it even more galling is this Tory Vampire supports Debt Jubilees for private bankers but not tax-payers.
1 December 2011 4:20AM
Obviously nobody has sent you or the rating agencies the memo about it being time to get up to date with Modern Money Theory.