Mitt Romney: wins He is so far ahead in the polls it would be one of the biggest upsets in US political history if he were to lose. That means he would have won the first two Republican contests. But South Carolina rather than Iowa and New Hampshire has usually been the testing ground for the Republicans, and, as a deeply conservative southern state, it could be awkward for him. He only took 15% of the vote in 2008, leaving him in fourth place. If he wins South Carolina this time, the race is effectively over. He would then be well placed to take Florida at the end of the month. The primaries and caucuses after that and the 10 states up on Super Tuesday in March largely favour him, especially as he has the money and organisation to fight in all of them, while his cash-short rivals would have to pick and choose.
Ron Paul: possibly second Paul is looking for a strong second place finish but it does not really matter that much to him. He has no chance of winning the Republican nomination, being too far on the party fringes. His strategy is a long-term one, taking advantage of the Republican switch to proportional representation by picking up a share of delegates in each state. He has the money, the organisation and a fervent band of supporters in each state to fight a protracted campaign. He can take his army of delegates to the party convention in Tampa, Florida, in August and demand a prime-time platform to air his non-interventionist foreign policy and advocacy of minimalist government and hope to wring some concessions from the nominee, probably Romney.
Rick Santorum: possibly second He needs that second-place slot to build on the momentum he gained with the near dead-heat in Iowa. A second place finish would help establish him going into South Carolina as the Anybody But Romney candidate. He picked up an important endorsement on Sunday from social conservative Gary Bauer, which will help him in South Carolina with Christian evangelicals, the force that propelled him forward in Iowa. If he can win South Carolina, Florida becomes a toss-up state.
Newt Gingrich: possibly second He too desperately needs that second place. Having been in the lead in the polls in December, he has since faded. As a southerner from Georgia, he could be well placed to give Romney a fright in South Carolina and he still enjoys a 7% poll lead in Florida. His lack of cash and organisation would be a huge handicap in both states, but especially Florida, given its size, which means vast spending on ads.
Rick Perry: last Looks headed for last place in New Hampshire. His campaign has been a shambles, made worse on Tuesday after a poor showing in Iowa when he hinted he was going to quit, only by Wednesday to announce he was staying in. He has staked a lot on South Carolina, launching his campaign in Charleston in August. Expect him to drop out after the South Carolina results come in.
Jon Huntsman: campaign all but over Anything other than second place is a failure. Could drop out after New Hampshire, but may soldier on to Florida. He put everything into New Hampshire, opting against competing in Iowa. Probably a mistake. He may be back, not in 2012 but 2016. He seems to be treating this as a test-run for next time, hoping, as he puts it, that the Republican party will have returned to sanity by then.
