Iran: time for cool heads

This would be a good time for the US and Europe to decline the ayatollah's kind invitation to be his faction's re-election agent

The following three propositions are all true: in March, Iran is facing one of the most crucial elections in the history of the regime; it is doing so in an atmosphere which has become militarised, not just externally, but internally too – the Revolutionary Guards control Iran's oil industry, key business interests, the nuclear programme and the oil and gas infrastructure; and the more militarised the election gets, the more it will benefit the hardliners around the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He himself has called the vote a potential security challenge. Given this, why are the US and EU about to impose oil sanctions, which even if they do not go as far as Ron Paul's "act of war" will squeeze the source of 60% of the regime's revenue?

Ayatollah Khamenei's reaction to the forthcoming sanctions has been to breathe fire. On Monday he said Iran would not falter in the face of the western-imposed sanctions and, to reinforce the point, Iran announced it had begun uranium enrichment at the Fordo plant, a bunker built into 90 metres of mountain rock near the city of Qom. If the recent sabre-rattling over the Straits of Hormuz had not been enough, Iran said it intended at Fordo to enrich uranium to the highly sensitive 20% enrichment level, regarded in the industry as the technical threshold for bomb-grade material. The ayatollah and the Revolutionary Guards appear to be going out of their way to provoke a western response.

The moderates in this forthcoming election, a relative term at the best of times, are President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, his chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei and the "deviant group" around them. Whether these men have taken over the banner of reformism within the elite is debatable. But outside it, the opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who turned the last poll in 2009 into a major domestic crisis, are languishing under house arrest, and a campaign to boycott these elections will be easy for the regime to ignore. The Guardian Council, a conservative body of clerics and lawyers, will this week publish the names of those candidates who have been approved by the regime. Faced with the overwhelming superiority of the Revolutionary Guards, Ahmadinejad has got three cards to play: he is unpredictable, he claims to have compromising information on his political opponents, and the ministry of interior will hold the elections.

Given the stakes, this would be a good time for the US and Europe to decline the ayatollah's kind invitation to be his faction's re-election agent in Iran. Fordo remains under IAEA inspection. No tanker is being prevented from passing through Hormuz. Another round of nuclear talks with Iran could be in the offing. This is a time for cool heads.


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  • Vapid

    10 January 2012 12:41AM

    Time for cool heads?
    It's time the west just pissed off and left the country alone!.

  • insertfunnyusername

    10 January 2012 12:45AM

    I'm curious why the Guardian has conspicuously chosen not to report the following:

    "efense Secretary Leon Panetta says Iran is laying the groundwork for making nuclear weapons someday, but is not yet building a bomb "

    "Panetta's remarks on CBS' Face the Nation, which were taped Friday and aired Sunday, reflect the long-held view of the Obama administration that Iran is not yet committed to building a nuclear arsenal, only to creating the industrial and scientific capacity to allow one if its leaders to decide to take that final step."

    http://news.yahoo.com/us-iran-not-yet-decided-build-nuclear-bomb-140132073.html

    Does the Guardian disagree with Panetta that Iran is not yet building a bomb? Does the Guardian believe that the US Defense Secretary stating that in his opinion, Iran is not yet bulding a bomb, is not worthy of being reported?

  • MarkoTobias

    10 January 2012 12:51AM

    Iran has pushed a little too far and is now seeing that the West can push back even harder without the use of force.

    Snactions is a better alternative to war and shuts up the Israeli's and Arab nation's wanting Iran taken out.

  • paulywarlydoodle

    10 January 2012 12:53AM

    Definitly time for cool heads, it looks like the hard line/right wing/religious fanatics want to spark confrontation which will unite the discontented youth in the middle east against the west, they know America will not invade as it is broke and a conflict would raise the price of oil and choke off any recovery in the west, the whole middle east is like a powderkeg ready to blow.

  • Insightful

    10 January 2012 1:25AM

    This would be a good point if there were free and fair elections in Iran.

    What are the chances of that?

  • Rapport

    10 January 2012 1:26AM

    Iran is effectively a country under attack. It wouldn't be surprising to see the declaration of state of emergency and cancellation of all elections.

  • Teacup

    10 January 2012 2:10AM

    MarkoTobias,

    Please wear Iran's metaphorical shoes for a minute. You have a bunch of nuclear-armed countries threatening non-nuclear armed you. This includes a nearby country that has already done what they claim that you are doing. That country faced no opposition and no sanctions, public threats etc.

    Most of the countries threatening you have been participants in "wars of choice". You have not.

    You also note that when two countries were tweaking the US nose, the non-nuclear armed got pulverised. The other was left alone, more or less.

    What would you do under these circumstances?

  • MarkoTobias

    10 January 2012 2:57AM

    Iran has brought its own demise upon itself.

    From terrorism,involving itself in other countries such as Iraq and threats from stating about wiping country of the map to blocking the oil shipping.

    Do not paint Iranian regime as some victim.

    Obama offered friendship and they took as weakness so lets drop pretenses shall we.

  • themissing

    10 January 2012 3:04AM

    Actually Britain and the US created the current situation in Iran.

    If they hadn't organised a coup against the first democratic leader they had in the fifities to get cheaper oil, the whole situation in the middle east could have been different now.

  • creel

    10 January 2012 3:11AM

    Fordo remains under IAEA inspection. No tanker is being prevented from passing through Hormuz. Another round of nuclear talks with Iran could be in the offing.

    < This year will mark an elapse of 30 years since the US frustrated Iran's access to the levels of IAEA technical support - that all NPT participants were assured, as they put their pens to the paper!
    While Insertfunnyusername reminds us of Panetta's advice also - of the US understanding that Iran invests in the research and technological development that can with time enable her to mount nuclear counter-strike, should she ever need to do so. But does not prepare trigger-ready bombs for her shelf.

    So yes, much calming is in order. Yet the sanctioning of Iran has progressed to a stage that encourages her to through caution to the winds, to tear up her participation in the IAEA process (on grounds that she has receiced little benefit and much grief as her reward) & to with immediate effect advise the world that a brief series of "test firings of prototype weapons" will be commenced.
    Whilst this action would provide the 'certainty' the West evidently craves, it would be on a par with the Australian Gillard Government's proposal to supply uranium to a contemporary India that is resistant to NPT participation and be unlikely to further the cause of global peace and security.

  • MarkoTobias

    10 January 2012 3:14AM

    If's and but's.

    How long can you keep blaming the usual suspects of US,UK and Israel before you realise that everything bad in this world is not their fault?.

    Convenient that to have "fallguys",its means you do not have accept reality.

  • insertfunnyusername

    10 January 2012 3:25AM

    "From terrorism,involving itself in other countries such as Iraq and threats from stating about wiping country of the map to blocking the oil shipping.

    "
    Involving itself in othe countries such as Iraq. !!!11!!! Have you no sense of irony? WTF imposed sanctions on Iraq for years, before finally invading, blowing up women and chilren into bits of bloody meat, and then now leaving Iraq in a mess? Hint it wasn't Iran.

    As for the threats to block the shipping lane, who pray tell, has already started in actually engaing in acts of war? Economic sanctions are acts of war, whereas threats to do various things, but not actually doing them, are not.

  • insertfunnyusername

    10 January 2012 3:32AM

    "If they hadn't organised a coup against the first democratic leader they had in the fifities to get cheaper oil, the whole situation in the middle east could have been different now.
    "

    --themissing

    It isn't just that the US and UK staged a coup against Mossadegh. It is that they then subsequently helped to prop up the torturing and corrupt Pahlevi for decades, and then when he was finally deposed and evicted, pushed Iraq and Saddam into a war with Iran, in a bid to weaken and possiblly topple those who evicted the Shah, in a bid to try to restore him or some other puppet.

    One act, committed more than 50 years ago, is not that big a deal, except it was followed by a whole bunch of other attempts at meddling and destabilisation.

  • jokaz

    10 January 2012 3:43AM

    Can any of the "obedient" Gulf states revolt on its dictatorship? At least there are elections in Iran and a president may not stay more than 2 terms.

    I think the only way for the US and its allies to leave Iran alone is if Iran acquires a nuke!

  • sideharding

    10 January 2012 3:58AM

    I realize that this is thegrauniad, a kind of 'jihadwatch' style blog aimed at demonizing the US, but does anyone at the grauniad actually have a single useful suggestion to make on this subject?

    Or are the staff all children of the "well, Israel has a nuke so why shouldn't Iran?" posture?

  • sideharding

    10 January 2012 4:01AM

    "Yet Iran supplied Shia militia's in that country who in turned killed civilians.

    Iran's regime has many chances and let us hope economic sanctions will bring them to theirs senses and no need for military involvement."

    Good luck trying facts and reason here... the typical grauniadista is a child with one finger up their nose, and the other pointed at America crying 'icky..." If you quote too many hard facts, you'll be "moderated" out of the discussion....

  • hitch21

    10 January 2012 4:03AM

    the Revolutionary Guards control Iran's oil industry, key business interests, the nuclear programme and the oil and gas infrastructure;

    Wot, like the PLA?

    The moderates in this forthcoming election, a relative term at the best of times, are President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, his chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei and the "deviant group" around them.

    Hmm, is Rafsanjani still alive?

    Do you just write these for effect? An apologia for North Korea? Why not!!

    Bob Mugabe? Great guy!!

    After the failure and the oppression of the last elections I am not holding out too much hope for these ones, but any change will come from within

    Ahmadinejad can prance round like a tit denying the holocaust but that doesn't stop him getting a ring side seat at the UN.

    Sanctions, no sanctions, military strikes or otherwise, follow the money and back the people

  • EnglishMadness

    10 January 2012 4:24AM

    Iran is trying to suck the United States into war. There is no doubt about it. They are insincere in their negotiations and lack any good will at all. It is not altogether surprising and looking at history ,it is easy to understand why the Iranians are annoyed.

    Still, sentencing American citizens to death and announcing with wild glee that they are enriching Uranium deep in an underground complex.Plus all of the military exercises by all sides past, present and future. I think, and I say this with a heavy heart, this is the war to go with the financial collapse. It has happened many times in the past, with a frighteningly similar pattern.

  • JonathanJP

    10 January 2012 5:07AM

    Is the Guardian actually demanding a US/European policy that encourages the re-election of Ahmadinejad? Madness this.

    If the Iranian regime is intent on developing nuclear weapons, then they should pay a sustained and steep economic price. We need to make it harder for them to govern, not grant them legitimacy.

  • cactuswizzard

    10 January 2012 5:15AM

    you haven't mentioned the other big election this year in the US, there is going to be a lot of increased brainless saber rattling especially from the Republican applicants, not toooo worried about any consequences but seeing it as a religious glory of god on American thing and of course the Israel lobby will be doing its best to increase this.....

    If the last braindead candidate Bush junior hadn't interfered in a major way and totally destroyed Iraq s military power you would have a balance and a local threat that would keep the Iranians under control, after all Iraq could also rely on western backed armed supplies in this kind of situation like its now happening with Saudi and Kuwait getting f16 planes from the US

    together with sanctions against Iran that would be much more effective than the sabber rattling of Israel and the US.....But thanks to the western war mongers Bush and Bliar Iran is now out of control and the only way seems to be leading to another long and deadly war

  • yungton

    10 January 2012 5:32AM

    Surely it's time for war. Surely every ten years a war is started by the coalition. I know I'm right because I have my trusty VCR set to record every decade just as CNN go live. Don't know about you but I'm ready for some more shock-and-awe. If the footage is good enough I might even pause my torrent downloads of the pre-release action blockbusters so I can watch the war stream to my new 42" HD-Ready plasma tv. Hope we get the tv missile in colour this time. Didn't like it in black & white although I always shared a laugh with the American officers commentary as the missiles hit there target. So funny.

    All I'd say is let's keep this war local. We don't need the Russians or the Chinese to get involved as that would just complicate things. Let's have ourselves another manageable war to re-elect our leaders and feed the industry.

    Tape cleaners at the ready? Aye sir.

  • Logical123

    10 January 2012 6:07AM

    The problem with Panetta is that he assumes that he is a mind reader and he knows exactly why Iran is doing everything. It is like a person A buying a kitchen knife. Panetta is like someone who says that the reason that A bought the knife is to kill someone. Iran has done nothing to warrant such a judgment. It is simply making progress in nuclear technology to support its plans to build up to 20 nuclear power plants and to develop nuclear medicine. Iran already has the knowledge and technology to build nuclear bombs. But, it is not spending a penny on it. To keep repeating the idiotic statements of Panetta is utterly stupid.

  • lapsed

    10 January 2012 6:43AM

    So, no sanctions either then?

    If sanctions were abandoned we could celebrate the defeat of the Revolutionary Guard in the forthcoming 'elections'?

    Ayatollah Khomeini is just waiting for a chance to thank us for our 'cool heads'?

    Unconvincing, not to say fatuous.

  • Jacebeleren128

    10 January 2012 6:44AM

    Usually Western countries plan to invade a country then come up with the reasons, so this must be a godsend for them

  • pardise

    10 January 2012 7:38AM

    the most important effect of sanction of Iranian oil export is devaluation of iranian currency. Ahmadinejad is laughing as till last year they were strugling to pay their civil servants and funding regims military and inferstructure projects. Thanks to the smart move by U.S administration, iranian government income through sale of of oil has doubled and facilitated Iranian governments expenditurs.

  • visions

    10 January 2012 8:06AM

    We should teleport these insane murderous Iranian mullahs who finance and encourage terror and terrorists around the globe to some Galaxy far far away.

    Or just get rid of them.The American Way.

  • Berchmans

    10 January 2012 8:07AM

    MarkoTobias


    ## Obama offered friendship ##


    It was like Wolf offering Clint Eastwood friendship in the showerroom scene in Escape from Alcatraz

    B

  • Stealthbong

    10 January 2012 8:38AM

    I realize that this is thegrauniad, a kind of 'jihadwatch' style blog aimed at demonizing the US, but does anyone at the grauniad actually have a single useful suggestion to make on this subject?

    I get the impression that you would not know a useful suggestion if it were supersized, served with double fries and shoved up your arse.

  • happytolive

    10 January 2012 8:52AM

    The other day I was looking at Amazon’s international delivery destinations; I found out that a few countries are in the sanction list to which they cannot send their products. Not surprisingly the list includes the so called “axis of evil” countries introduced by Bush i.e. Iraq, North Korea and Iran - and also Cuba, Syria and Sudan. Who benefits from preventing the children of these countries from receiving books from abroad? Obviously no one and still the policy of sanctions is part of the aggression of the West against these countries for decades. What have these countries been doing during these harsh sanctions? Of course they’ve had the task of self-efficiency on their hands. And that makes these countries resilient and progressive. Literacy in Cuba is 96% and the youth literacy rate is close to 100% which is higher than any country in the West. Cuban children enjoy free access to quality education and health services, something which we in the UK just dream about. Iraq being in the sanction list just rubs salt into their wounds. The West has been killing their children in their thousands and still continues punishing them, that sort of behaviour can only be expected from the governments in the West and their inhuman system of capitalism.

    Obviously this also shows that the enemies of the Western political system are not the governments in the sanctioned countries but their people and this is also true because that political system is the enemy of the people in the West who have a common cause against it.

  • Berchmans

    10 January 2012 9:03AM

    visions

    ## We should teleport these insane murderous Iranian mullahs who finance and encourage terror ##

    Ali: Mama our house is being bulldozed ...yet you are so calm.

    Mama : Well I havent seen Press TV yet today .I dont know how to react.

    B

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