David Cameron is to take a high-stakes gamble with the union this week by telling the Scottish first minister, Alex Salmond, that he can have a binding referendum on Scottish independence – but only in the next 18 months, after which any referendum can be no more than advisory.
He is also likely to tell Salmond he will not be allowed to ask a third question on the ballot paper, over a form of devolution stopping short of independence.
Cameron will publish a consultation paper, probably this week, revealing clear legal advice that the independence referendum will be binding under the Scotland Act only if both parliaments agree to its going ahead. He will say the uncertainty created by the prospect of independence is harming the Scottish and UK economies, and a delay until 2014 is not possible.
Salmond then faces the choice of staging the referendum by the middle of 2013, or backing off until the next parliament. It would also be open to him to challenge Cameron's legal interpretation in the courts.
The power of the Scottish parliament to hold a unilateral advisory referendum is disputed by constitutional lawyers. Tories claim Salmond has been talking about holding a referendum to coincide with the 700th anniversary of the battle of Bannockburn in 2014.
One government source said: "We are not going to allow this issue to be decided on the basis of a rigged debate organised by Salmond. It is going to be a fair debate.
"It's very unfair on the Scottish people themselves, who don't really know when this question is going to be asked, what the question is going to be, who's responsible for asking it. We owe the Scottish people something that is fair, legal and decisive. So in the coming days we'll be setting out clearly what the legal situation is, and I think we need to move forward and say, 'Right, let's settle this issue in a fair and decisive way'."
The Scottish government has insisted it should determine the timing and form of a referendum. There is no agreement yet whether the Electoral Commission would oversee the referendum, as it does in England, especially if it is advisory.
Salmond said: "The position is very clear – the Scottish government achieved an overwhelming mandate from the people of Scotland to hold the referendum in the second half of this parliamentary term, and that is exactly what we will do."
Cameron told the BBC that the position of the Scottish government was a deliberate attempt to influence the result of any vote.
He said: "I think what Alex Salmond is trying to do – I think he knows the Scottish people, at heart, don't want a full separation from the United Kingdom – and so he's trying to sort of create a situation where that bubbles up and happens. Whereas I think we need some decisiveness, so we can clear up this issue."
The Treasury chief secretary, Danny Alexander, agreed with Cameron, saying Scottish business could not tolerate the delay. The Scots Tory peer Lord Forsyth, who is leading the campaign to preserve the union, said: "The idea that we should decide the fate of the UK on the basis of the date of a medieval battle when we are in the middle of a financial crisis and youth unemployment of one in four would be laughable if it wasn't so serious."
An 18-month deadline would put pressure on anti-independence parties, including Labour, to reach agreement on how they would conduct a cross-party campaign, if at all. There has been talk of first holding an advisory referendum, which would lead to detailed negotiations on the terms of a break-up that would then be put to the Scottish people in a binding vote.
The anti-independence parties have failed to find a figurehead to lead the fight to stay in the UK, with a number of senior figures including John Reid, the former Labour defence secretary, publicly stating that they do not want the job. The former Labour Scottish secretary Jim Murphy, now shadow defence secretary, has also been mentioned.
Two recent polls have suggested that independence still has only minority support, though it is increasing. The Scottish Social Attitudes Survey showed that backing for a split with the rest of the UK was at a six-year high of 32%, nine points up on last year.
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8 January 2012 9:56PM
" Salmond has been talking about holding a referendum to coincide with the 700th anniversary of the battle of Bannockburn (1314)."
I don't believe this to be the case. Are you able to supply a source Patrick? If not, it suggests you are being fed a line.....
8 January 2012 9:57PM
RUN MY TUNE ALEX SALMOND
8 January 2012 9:59PM
Is this an April's Fool? Cameron tries to force the referendum with the sole Tory MP in Scotland being the sum total of the representation of his party at UK government-level against the SNP who achieved nearly 50% of the vote in the Scottish Parliament elections last year?
I heard about this on the Andrew Marr show today and even Ann Treneman was shouting "stay out of it". More fool him. He's just gone and galvanised public opinion in Scotland in one full swoop.
8 January 2012 9:59PM
He will say piss off.
8 January 2012 9:59PM
What right does a party that has had no mandate to govern Scotland in a generation to dictate the timing of a referendum on our nation's future?
8 January 2012 10:00PM
You have got to be kidding re Bannockburn.
8 January 2012 10:02PM
Would Scotland would be better or worse off if Independent? They wouldn't get England/Wales/NI's money, but then again they wouldn't get their debt too...
8 January 2012 10:02PM
....and Cameron plays straight into Salmonds hands.
Now Eck can tell the Scottish electorate that the party with less MP's in Scotland than pandas is once again bullying the Scots from London.
This should boost the figures for those supporting independence more than anything Salmond could have done.
You have no veto on what the Scots want or don't want Lord Snooty.
8 January 2012 10:02PM
Well that'll sort out 50% of the Labour vote in Parliament!
But that obviously has nothing to do with it.
8 January 2012 10:03PM
One thing will GUARANTEE an increase in the chances of a yes vote, and that's "Tory Scum" as most Scots see the Conservatives, telling them what to do.
He's ballsed up, has Dave.
8 January 2012 10:03PM
By the time Cameron has finished with the Scots they will jump for independence. He wants to head this off while there is still some residual attachment to the union This sort of politickibng is exactly what will force Scotland to become independent in the long term. None of the English parties will face up to the fact that for over thirty years Scotland has never got the government it has voted for.
8 January 2012 10:04PM
this article makes my blood boil. poorly researched. salmond has NOT said anything about Bannockburn for referendum date. PLEASE AMEND!
8 January 2012 10:04PM
Cameron has made the first mistake by attempting to dictate policy to Salmond. Cameron is out of his depth on Scottish self-determination, and Salmond is going to tear Cameron a new arse out of this.
Also whilst the SNP consolidate their postition in Scotland, Cameron is going to mismanage the forthcoming war in Iran,he is going to have his hands full in the summer again with more London riots and he will have to witness the collapse of the coaltion. Tactically Cameron will not have the time, energy or motivation to take on the wily chessmaster Salmond this year.
Cameron's spirit will be broken long before he will even be able to lay a hand on Salmond politically.
8 January 2012 10:06PM
I think behind the scenes the Tories will be pleased to see the split as without the Scottish labour vote, the Tories will remain in power for a long long time. Oh dear.
8 January 2012 10:06PM
The real reason behind Cameron trying to force the issue, his father in law is the third largest landownder in Scotland. If the SNP get a yes to independance they then under that mandate will nationalise all the land in Scotland
Cameron will be getting earache from his wife about her inheritance
Follow the money.............
8 January 2012 10:06PM
Did you miss Labour getting 45% of the Scottish vote in 1997?
8 January 2012 10:06PM
Does he want to lose Scotland I wonder?
8 January 2012 10:06PM
The longer the Toryies are in power the more people will want to be independent of them.
By forcing them to have the referendum early the Tories are actually playing it smart.
By the way if you guys do go for independence I'll be one of those pesky english lot that will move up. I don't want to stay in a Tory England.
8 January 2012 10:06PM
Agreed. Cameron's doing Salmond's job for him.
8 January 2012 10:06PM
The Coalition has as much mandate to govern Scotland as any UK government ever has. That's the way representative democracy works. As they are the Government of the union, they decide the timing... simples!
Splitting Scotland off would be no bad thing for England, and perhaps no bad thing for Scotland either. Certainly it would reduce the chances of Labour ever again gaining a vast majority in the British parliament!
8 January 2012 10:07PM
So who gets to vote on this? I've a Scottish surname but am born and bred in Wales. Does my partner get to vote, having been born in Scotland? What about the Scottish diaspora in general, do they get to vote? Does a recent immigrant now living in Scotland get a vote? Do the Shetland Islanders get to chose if they would rather be Scottish or Norwegian, and take their oil with them should they chose the latter? It's a can of worms Salmond. Leave well alone. If it ain't broke, don't mend it:
8 January 2012 10:07PM
Do you really think the bulk of Conservative supporters and MPs wouldn't like to see the back of the Scots for good?
Losing a chunk of the Union is a small price to pay for permanently removing a big chunk of Labour's support base.
8 January 2012 10:07PM
CallmeDave has finally lost the plot or is out of his depth
8 January 2012 10:07PM
Indeed, plus the cheap University fees and free prescriptions are tempting ;)
8 January 2012 10:07PM
...or ...we will hold a referendum at the time when the party that does have a mandate from the Scottish people have requested, residents of the aforementioned country vote and if the answer is Yes...we declare UDI and David Cameron can take it up with the UN if he is not happy with the outcome.
8 January 2012 10:08PM
Dear Leader Alex Salmond, KIng of the Lilliputiians is not going to like this, you know.
He will be jumping up and down like a hairdresser.
8 January 2012 10:08PM
Cameron's place in history will be assured if the vote goes Salmond's way - and with every day, Cameron makes an SNP victory more likely.
The most foolish PM that this country has ever had.
8 January 2012 10:08PM
Only if the north of England can come too.
8 January 2012 10:09PM
So would Scotland get to keep the national debt?
And if there weren't any more Scotish MP's in Parliament then the Tory's are a safe bet for the next election.
8 January 2012 10:10PM
Away and bile yer heid Dave.
8 January 2012 10:10PM
Cameron is a complete and utter twat. With Tourette's!
8 January 2012 10:10PM
And then you can move back to England when the taxes in the glorious Scottish socialist republic envisaged by some of the posters above you become too much to bear! ;)
8 January 2012 10:10PM
Considering the Sunday Herald has an article explaining that the SNP are working with a psychologist to plan the independence campaign - and she has advised against all the usual tartan bollocks and words like "Freedom" - then I am a bit dumbfounded that they really would use the anniversary of the battle Bannockburn as their date for the referendum.
I know this date has been getting mentioned more and more by the press and opposition parties but I genuinely think it is more that they are grasping at straws than anything coherent.
8 January 2012 10:11PM
Go Scotland! payback for that bastard Longshanks!...be free!
8 January 2012 10:12PM
The sad thing for the whole Union is that the best politician in the UK happens to be leading the SNP, instaed of Westminster. Love him or hate him Salmond as apolitical operator is without a doubt head and shoulders above the grey men we have in westminster at the moment.
I doubt Salmond would have made the gaffes this coalition have made in the last 12 months.
8 January 2012 10:12PM
Salmond is by some distance the most talented politician in these islands; he will outmanoeuvre Cameron as he as every other adversary in his career.
8 January 2012 10:13PM
Don't trust Salmond, but I know who I'd back in a fight.
8 January 2012 10:13PM
Cameron is playing games again, just like he did with Merkel, Sarkozy and the other European leaders. Now he's doing it Salmond and Scottish voters.
He's betting that by forcing a referendum soon it will result in a No vote (like the premature referendum on AV).
But there are two points:
It's not down to him to set a timetable - it's down to the people of Scotland. His arrogance is no surprise but none the less breathtaking for all that.
By forcing the pace and playing silly-buggers he may actually piss sensible Scots off and create exactly the situation he intends to prevent.
All this just confirms that he is a third-rate college debater with a juvenille attitude to democracy and a contempt for the electorate.
8 January 2012 10:13PM
well well first Cameron went to Europe to defend the english , and now he is off to scotland, maybe tomorrow he can try his luck in disneyland....
8 January 2012 10:13PM
A double bluff going on here. Cameron wants to be shot of Scotland, so that England will be forever be in thrall of a Daily Mail reading majority. Good luck Scotland as you launch into a new era of Enlightment within Europe in general and Scandinavia in particular. Remember to throw the occasional loaf of bread across the wire to your erstwhile brothers and sisters living in a new Dark Ages under the feudal heel of Lord Snooty and his chums.
8 January 2012 10:13PM
Is Salmond a socialist? genuine question, i don't really know if he's left or centre....
8 January 2012 10:14PM
Some people seem to think Cameron actually wants Scotland to be part of the Union. Wake up and smell the realpolitik...
8 January 2012 10:14PM
Cheeky one-man-party Alex Salmond is playing nationalist games while the Scottish economy goes down the tubes.
I really hope he gets his comeuppance.
For once, I wish Cameron luck.
The Union is absolutely vital. I detest nationalism in all its forms. It is so petty and small-minded.
8 January 2012 10:14PM
Got there before I did and said it better too. Touche.
8 January 2012 10:14PM
Salmond will call Cameron's bluff by ignoring whatever the UK government proposes. This will increase his popularity though not be enough to win an independence referendum.
Salmond's difficulty is how to get a viable third option into the equation.
Devo Max might be the more popular than independence or the status quo.
And, for Salmond, it would represent another step towards independence.
The problem is that at present it is little more than a slogan.
8 January 2012 10:15PM
Difficult issue for the guardianistas, Labour no where on this so the choice is between Dave and the Union or Alex and the break up of the uk.
8 January 2012 10:15PM
I see this tactic by Cameron as a way of reducing the representation of the Labour Party at Westminister. That is by removing the Scottish MPs representing constituencies that frequently elect Labour MPs, thus, increasing the likelihood that a Tory government of England and Wales would be elected.
Cameron wants Scottish independance.
8 January 2012 10:16PM
This looks like a good thread to grab a beer and a sandwich, sit back and watch ......
More entertaining than tv I reckon!
8 January 2012 10:16PM
Incisive political analysis there, Dave. What do you mean?
I hold no brief for Wee Eck but he'll make hay with this.
8 January 2012 10:16PM
Please don't insult those with Tourette's.