UK inflation jumped to a three-year high last month as energy bills rose sharply, tightening the squeeze on households.
The Office for National Statistics said consumer price inflation rose to 5.2% in September, up sharply from 4.5% in August and also above the economists' consensus forecast for 4.9%. It was the highest since September 2008. In that month inflation also hit 5.2% and was the highest since this series of data began in 1997.
The ONS said that gas, electricity and fuel prices were the biggest factors in the rise. Overall, prices in the economy rose 0.6% on the month from August but average gas bills rose by 13% and electricity bills went up 7.5%, reflecting recent complaints from households, politicians and consumer groups over rising bills.
Food and transport costs were also significantly higher than a year earlier.
Economists said that while September's number was higher than most had expected, it was likely to be the peak.
Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics, described the inflation data as "a bit of a nasty surprise" but added: "We still think inflation will fall sharply over the next year as food/energy and VAT effects drop out and core inflation finally eases."
The pickup in inflation contrasts with slow wage growth for workers, meaning their disposable incomes are continuing to shrink. But for those on state benefits, including pensioners, there is a small advantage in the fact that the September consumer price index (CPI) number will be used to set payouts.
The Office for Budgetary Responsibility, whose forecasts are used by the Treasury, had forecast September inflation would be a much lower 4.3%. Under that estimate the benefit bill stood at a total of £207.8bn. The Institute for Fiscal Studies calculates the total with CPI at 5.2% is closer to £209.6bn – £1.8bn higher than expected.
The inflation rise is also likely to worry policymakers at the Bank of England who recently embarked on a fresh programme to pump money into the economy. The process, called quantitative easing, risks stoking inflation.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: "However, we do not expect this to deter the Bank from maintaining an ultra-loose policy stance. The Bank is clearly more concerned about the current fragility of the recovery than current above-target inflation, meaning further stimulus could well be on the cards as policymakers seek to prevent the country from sliding back into recession if business and consumer confidence fails to pick up soon."
He added that UK households are under the greatest pressure in terms of rising prices and job worries for 19 years, based on a "misery index", which assesses the combination of inflation and high unemployment.
Comments
18 October 2011 10:24AM
Its higher.
We need to measure the rise in price of:
Petrol
Bread
Eggs
Milk
Food stuffs as well not just white goods!
Its more like 30 or 40%
18 October 2011 10:24AM
What a surprise . . .
18 October 2011 10:25AM
The longer term risk is deflation.
18 October 2011 10:25AM
Thank goodness my ISA is giving me a return of 0.001%.
18 October 2011 10:26AM
Can't keep printing money forever
18 October 2011 10:26AM
My savings are being eaten by inflation, my pension is being eaten by investment schemes that caused the banking crisis and my income is being eaten by higher taxes. Ain't life grand.
18 October 2011 10:26AM
On target to inflate the deficit away....
18 October 2011 10:27AM
So if you were prudent and saved and didn't get into debt and didn't get a massive mortgage?
In short, if you didn't participate in the greed that screwed the country?
Sod you. We're inflating away the debt and your savings.
18 October 2011 10:27AM
'no alternative' eh Gideon? - the sense of deja-vu is underwheleming.......
18 October 2011 10:27AM
What people need to realise is that King and the politicians don't care about the inflation: they believe the only way they can handle the debt sodden mess that the banks have created is through debt deflation, inflating the debt away. It's ll part of the plan
�100,000,000,000 debt will become a mere (sic) �65,000,000,000, after 10 years if inflation stays at 5%.
Could they do something about inflation: well of course they could if they wanted. they could raise interest rates thereby increasing the value of sterling which would reduce our import costs. This, however, would have negative impact on exports and in any case is not part of the plan .
They could curb excess profits by the utilities - but the effect would be to reduce inflation and so it is not part of the plan
(Of course they would like higher inflation to seed things along. They would like a good dose of" wage-push" inflation so the workers can shoulder the blame for the ensuing inflation ramp)
In the meantime pensioners, savers, people on fixed incomes,the prudent and those with "rainy day" savings are having their money stolen by inflation as surely as if they were being repeatedly mugged or burgled. All part of the plan
18 October 2011 10:28AM
Quelle Surprise!
18 October 2011 10:29AM
So this is how a state reduces debt, yet the Tories will try and attribute any reduction to their punitive class hatred driven spending cuts
18 October 2011 10:29AM
we need to find a way to withhold our taxes, collectively,
18 October 2011 10:31AM
Cheers Cameron et al
18 October 2011 10:31AM
but rising inflation is damaging consumer spending power - more money in the system is only going to damage consumer confidence because it's driving up prices. I'm not an expert, but this sounds like madness.
18 October 2011 10:31AM
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18 October 2011 10:33AM
This is all going rather swimmingly isn't it?
18 October 2011 10:33AM
Whats the point in commenting? Who cares or gives a jot?.........
18 October 2011 10:33AM
And...er...the way that this government is handling the majority of people's worries about not being able to pay for services that meet our basic human needs such as light and warmth is to 'encourage the utilities companies to increase competition and enable customers to switch more easily between providers'. Yeah right! Like that's going to work as it always hasn't...
18 October 2011 10:34AM
Never mind. Mervin says inflation coming down sharply soon.......
18 October 2011 10:35AM
Doesn't inflation also erode the debt away?
18 October 2011 10:35AM
Only 5.2%? Seems a lot more than that just on everyday items, let alone the utility bills. The coalition can't blame this in Labour, surely.
18 October 2011 10:36AM
thanks to our cretins at the BoE and their latest round of 'quantitative easing' which due to our wonderful fractional reserve system the actual amount of new money will be closer to £500 billion as banks lend and re-lend the money amongst themselves and spunk it away on commodities speculation and dodgy derivatives expect inflation to go only one way: UP. The bailouts have been the biggest theft of wealth from the working and middle classes to the rich in history. Our savings are being destroyed, the pound is being destroyed and will soon be weaker than the Euro, food prices to rise by another 15%, real wages to continue loosing value. All to protect a totally dysfunctional banking industry where even Northern Rock is deemed too big to fail and bailed out by the tax payer. Somethings gotta give...
18 October 2011 10:36AM
Another thing Gideon can blame. We've had snow, a royal wedding, public sector strikes and now the Bank of England.
18 October 2011 10:37AM
It's all going a bit pear shaped for Dave and Gideon - you can sense the panic.
A U turn looks bad, doing nothing looks bad.
NOTHING looks good...
Er
18 October 2011 10:38AM
poor merv will have to write another letter explaining himself and why the thrill of printing imaginary money is perhaps a crap idea
18 October 2011 10:38AM
5.2%? Gosh.
18 October 2011 10:38AM
When are these useless, heartless fuckers going to give it up and move to their beloved redneck part of the USA?
18 October 2011 10:40AM
The longer term risk is deflation.
You think?
Are you sure that we won't see further energy price rises or a spike in oil prices?
Try and remember as well that just because the inflation rate may decrease, that prices do not. It just means that the rate of rising prices has slowed.
Personally, with further QE in the system and the possibility of further monetary stimulus we could see further devaluation and upward pressure on commodity prices.
We also have to factor in the manufacturing costs which lag to the high street and add further pressure to inflation.
The BOE know exactly what they are doing, we have heard this bullshit for 3 years now and it is remarkable that people still swallow it.
They have abandoned their principle and legal remit and are actively pursuing a policy of debt reduction via inflation.
This is designed to protect asset prices, protecting banking and personal bad debts.
Fuck everyone else.
18 October 2011 10:40AM
Hi whimsicaleye
You're a bit behind the times mate, most of the working and middle class don't have any savings left. Inflation is a way of redistributing from the rich, providing we can demand a wage to cover the cost of living.
18 October 2011 10:41AM
Still, high unemployment is a price worth paying for low inflation.
Oh.
18 October 2011 10:41AM
Reminds me of the Seventies. We'll be having power cuts next.
18 October 2011 10:43AM
Thanks Merv.
This is all because you have not been doing your official job. Instead you have been pandering and protecting the narrow sectional political and financial interests and agenda of a tiny minority.
I've looked at the history of the BoE rate cutting. I note that you started your rate cutting in earnest a few years before 2008. Some might think you were cutting rates much earlier because you were already fully aware of the bubble and were already trying to protect the interests of banks long before the pop. Interests rate cuts are normally considered a tool to discourage saving and encourage borrowing and spending. Why would you do that years before 2008?
18 October 2011 10:44AM
And many pensioners will be robbed by CPI and be forced to choose either to feed or freeze
18 October 2011 10:44AM
Who would've predicted that competition among capitalists would grow so fierce that, eventually, most capitalists would go bankrupt, leaving only a handful of monopolists controlling nearly all production?
Karl Marx.
18 October 2011 10:46AM
Not sure how many times it needs to be reiterated but the only inflation that the BoE are worried about is wage inflation.
Unless you are a tube driver, a banker, or an executive on the board of a plc or mutual, you won't be getting any. So no change from Merv.
18 October 2011 10:46AM
Forgot to say that the roots of all this predate Shameron. It was Bliar and Brown wot done it aided the incompetence of the BOE and FSA
18 October 2011 10:47AM
Many recommends PrincePhilip, and I'm an anarchist
18 October 2011 10:49AM
Well look on the bright side, we won't be plundering the earth's resources on such a vast scale as usual, those of us who are left that is....
18 October 2011 10:49AM
So the CEO of Markit has resoponded. So how come he got his thoughts together and in the public domain before the Opposition. GET A GRIP SOMEONE!! If you in the Labour Party Opposition can't be effective kindly make way for an organisation that can. What's wrong with you all? Where is the confidence?
18 October 2011 10:49AM
5.2%?
Have the fuckers that compile these figures ever been shopping, I mean real shopping, you know for food and stuff like that.
Lord Snooty and his mate Gideon can try and spin this anyway they like but this present "economic policy" spells disaster for thousands of households up and down the country.
My you as long a FTSE stays above 5000 and the profits for big business keep rising everything will be all right...............................
for some.
18 October 2011 10:51AM
Continued rises in RPI due to high commodity prices will continue for as long as the £ remains low, since we cleverly made ourselves largely dependent on imported energy. Unfortunalely we are somewhat caught in a cleft stick here, as the low interest rates that are keeping the £ low are the very thing that was supposed to help us into an export-led recovery, in turn enabling us to reduce the bankers, I mean country's, debt by increased tax revenue from increased economic activity.
Now we have the worst of all possible worlds. The Eurozone crisis has damped demand for our exports and the government has throttled demand at home by its cuts so there is no recovery. The low £ stokes supply side inflation and to increase the buying power of the £ would mean increasing interest rates at home causing a still debt-laden country immense hardship.
As long as the government insists on its headlong rush to slash the state and refuses to increase the tax take on the rich the economy will continue with high inflation and a steady spiral down into depression.
18 October 2011 10:51AM
the BOE will not move on dealing with the infaltion rate,they know that any slight adjustment to the interest rate will send the economy over the edge.however the BOE are more than happy to pile more public money(QE)into the banks at the expense of the taxpayer! STILL HURTING STILL NOT WORKING plan b georgie boy?
18 October 2011 10:53AM
It;s happened in Russia.
It's happened in Brazil.
It's happened in Argentina.
It's happened in Germany.
It's happened many times before...
Inflation robs everyone but especially the old and the savers.
The street wise get their money and wealth out of the country...
That is why the wealthy Greeks have fled the country...before the inevitable crash of the Euro.
That is why London is perceived as a safe haven for these wealthy immigrants...
.
But if the perception is of the UK having a similar problem...INFLATION...then look out, as the exodus of wealth will be colossal ...
George Gideon Oliver Osborne and what's his name in the BOE...GET A GRIP....
18 October 2011 10:54AM
It is absolutely remarkable to me, and symptomatic of a deeper and more sinister development in western society, that we have no democratic say in this matter.
Mervyn King is setting monetary policy, has abandoned his legal remit, he is impoverishing millions and rewarding the wealthiest by directly intervening in the economy, destroying the currency he is paid to protect and deliberately fuelling inflation to destroy debt.
He has taken 50 billion from savings accounts and is deciding, directly, who pays the nation's bills.
And we have no say, no vote or recourse to stop the fat fucker.
The government are quite happy to sit back and let him decide our fate.
Democracy is truly dead.
18 October 2011 10:55AM
Ishowerdaily:
Like that's ever going to happen...!
18 October 2011 10:56AM
@cornelia23
No WE won't, but we can't rely on that to bring commodity prices down as the BRIC countries continue to grow and their demands for resources ramp up, keeping prices high. Curiously those are the countries who have depended on real production of goods and services to make real profits and not just shuffled numbers from one spreadsheet to another like our financial sector. Consequently they are the ones with the money, who we are now paying interest to borrow from. Who'd have thought it.
18 October 2011 10:57AM
Well, traditionally inflation is a good thing when you owe loads of money (inflate your debts away) ... the danger is that inflation combined with massive unemployment and therefore no growth leads to ...
stagflation
That's a word we are all going to be hearing a lot of in the near future.
18 October 2011 10:58AM
Is this it? Is this the news? A tory government.....what did you expect....full employment and low inflation? Ha ha ha!
18 October 2011 10:58AM
FYI
stagflation