The Fifth Assessment Report - steps taken so far

 

   The AR5 Writing and Review Process

IPCC reports are prepared by international experts selected by the Bureau to serve as IPCC Lead Authors. Over 830 authors will prepare the AR5 which will encompass over 50 chapters. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process to ensure an objective, unbiased, transparent and comprehensive assessment of current scientific technical information. Both expert reviewers and governments are called upon to comment on scientific and technical matters in a review process of several stages for a given IPCC report .
 

Review Editors assist the author teams in this process and ensure that all comments are afforded appropriate consideration. Review comments and author responses are published after the reports are finally approved and released. For more information on the role of IPCC Lead Authors, expert reviewers and Review Editors please see IPCC procedures.
 
For information on the full AR5 review process and how to participate please follow this link. For an update on the current AR5 review process (October 2012), please follow this link.
 
A multi-stage review process:
 
The IPCC review process generally takes place in three stages:

• expert review of IPCC Reports;

A wide circulation process ensures contributions are received from independent experts in all regions of the world and all relevant disciplines.
 
Differing views are reflected in the reports.
 

  How has the IPCC writing and review process been strengthened in recent years?

In addition to already existing procedures regarding the writing and review of IPCC reports, and in response to an independent review of IPCC processes and procedures by the InterAcademy Council (IAC), additional guidance has been provided to AR5 authors during the Fifth Assessment cycle on matters such as: the use of literature in IPCC reports (see Annex 2 of Appendix A), the role of Review Editors and consideration of the range of scientific, technical and socio-economic views (also see Appendix A), as well as consistent treatment of uncertainties. These efforts have further strengthened and clarified the IPCC’s strict procedures for the preparation and review of IPCC assessment reports.

AR5 Calendar and Schedule

 

  Full AR5 Schedule

A comprehensive overview schedule which contains dates for AR5 Scoping Meetings, Sessions of the Panel to approve outlines of the reports, Lead Author meetings, review periods and cut-off dates for new literature to be assessed in the AR5 is available here (AR5 Key Dates).
 
For all IPCC meetings and review periods, please see the IPCC Calendar.
 

  Literature cut-off dates

The IPCC process assesses published literature; it does not involve carrying out research. In order to be reflected in the AR5, peer-reviewed literature has to be submitted for publication well before the Second Order Draft is finalized, and accepted well before the final draft is circulated. Any reference that does not fulfil these criteria will be removed from the draft contribution together with the statement(s) that it supports.
 
Working groups have provided the following cut-off dates for new literature.
 
For information on the full AR5 review process and how to participate please follow this link.
 
 

  AR5 Completion Dates

AR5 contributions (Working Group reports and the Synthesis Report) will be approved by the following dates:
 
• Working Group I - Mid September 2013
 
• Working Group II - Mid March 2014
 
• Working Group III - Early April 2014
 
• Synthesis Report - End October 2014

Note: The approved summaries of the reports (and the Synthesis Report with its Summary for Policymakers) will be released immediately after their approval by the Panel, while the longer reports (Working Group full reports) will be published a few months later.
 
For each Working Group report, the final full reports will be accepted and their Summary for Policymakers approved by IPCC member governments at the Working Group Session and then accepted at a Session of the Panel. The final stage of the assessment process is marked by the adoption and approval of the SYR, and its SPM by a Session of the Panel.
 
For more information on IPCC procedures for the acceptance/approval/adoption of IPCC reports see Procedures page.
 
 

  AR5 Lead Authors and Review Editors

More than 830 Authors and Review Editors from 85 countries have been selected for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from among 3,000 nominated individuals. In the course of the assessment process Lead Authors may enlist Contributing Authors. See the complete list of Authors and Review Editors, and the following statistics and regional coverage.
 

 

 AR5 Author Teams

 

Working Group I	Working Group II	Working Group III
		Also see the WG III AR5 Photo Gallery

 

Authors of the AR5 Synthesis Report

The IPCC Chair leads the Synthesis Report's Core Writing Team whose composition was agreed by the 45th Session of the IPCC Bureau, Geneva, 13-14 March 2012.

 

   Lead Author Meetings

In the course of the assessment process four Lead Author meetings are held by each working group. All Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors get together to initiate the writing process, consult on cross-cutting issues, consider review comments received and revise the text accordingly. Review Editors participate in such meetings to ensure that all review comments are afforded appropriate consideration. 
 

Working Group I

Working Group II

Working Group III

Synthesis Report

 

  The Development of Scenarios for the AR5

In the AR5 process, particular attention is being given to the treatment of scenarios. See the 2007 Meeting Report and the 2010 Meeting Report (Berlin) on Socio-Economic Scenarios.

When the Panel decided in 2008 to prepare a Fifth Assessment Report, the Panel also invited the scientific community developing new scenarios for the analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts, and response strategies to move forward actively for the timely delivery of scenario results to feed the assessment process.

In the past, the IPCC coordinated the process of developing scenarios for its assessments. During its 25th session (Mauritius, 26-28 April 2006), the IPCC decided that rather than directly coordinating and approving new scenarios itself, the process of scenario development should now be coordinated by the research community.
 
The IPCC now seeks to "catalyze" the timely production by others of new scenarios for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). To this end an expert meeting was held from 19-21 September 2007 in Noorwijkerhout, the Netherlands (Meeting Report) which considered the plans by the scientific community and agreed representative concentration pathways.
 
For more information on this process conducted by the scientific community, see the IPCC's new scenarios webpage.

Two IPCC Special Reports in 2011

In addition to climate assessment reports, the IPCC is publishing Special Reports on specific topics. The preparation and approval process for all IPCC Special Reports follows the same procedures as for IPCC Assessment Reports. In the year 2011 two IPCC Special Report were finalized, the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) and the Special Report on Managing Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). Both Special Reports were requested by governments.
 

• Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)
  
  
  

  SRREN Press Conference in Abu Dhabi, 9 May 2011

  On May 9, the approved Summary for Policymakers of the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation was launched at a press conference in Abu Dhabi, where the 11th Session of the Working Group III took place.
   
  This report assesses existing literature on the future potential of renewable energy for the mitigation of climate change. It covers the six most important renewable energy technologies, as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It also takes into consideration the environmental and social consequences associated with these technologies, the cost and strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion.
   
  More than 130 authors from all over the world contributed to the preparation of IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) on a voluntary basis - not to mention more than 100 scientists, who served as contributing authors.
   
  
  • Summary for Policymakers (SPM) released on 9 May 2011
  • Press Release with key findings of the report
  • Generic Presentation
  • Videos
  • Information Note
  
   
  Additional information on the SRREN can be found at the Working Group III website for the SRREN.
   
  
• Special Report on 'Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation' (SREX)
  
  
  
  At the first Joint Session of IPCC Working Group I and II that met from 14-17 November 2011, in Kampala, Uganda the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation was approved and accepted.
   
  The report assesses the effect that climate change has on the threat of natural disasters and how nations can better manage an expected change in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of severe weather patterns. It aims to become a resource for decision-makers to prepare more effectively for managing the risks of these events. A potentially important area for consideration is also the detection of trends in extreme events and the attribution of these trends to human influence.
   
  More than 80 authors, 19 review editors, and more than 100 contributing authors from all over the world contributed to the preparation of SREX.
   
  
  • Summary for Policymakers (SPM) released on 18 November 2011
  • Press Note
  • Fact Sheet
  • Generic Presentation
  • SREX Press Conference
    
  
   
  Additional information on the SREX can be found at the Working Group II website for the SREX.

Since 1992 the IPCC has been preparing methodologies and guidelines to assist Parties to the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol to prepare national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks. The last major publication was the "2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories". Currently the Task Force on Inventories is developing software for the 2006 Guidelines and producing other material to assist users of the guidelines. It maintains also the Emissions Factor Database (EFDB).
 
Furthermore, at its 33rd session, the IPCC decided to produce additional guidance, the "2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands", to cover both inland wetlands such as peat lands and coastal wetlands such as mangroves. Preparation of inventory guidance on wetlands has been requested by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the IPCC hopes that the 2013 supplementary guidance will make an important contribution to future international action on wetlands. On 31 May 2011, the IPCC sent out a letter to governments and international organizations for the nomination of experts for consideration as Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors and Review Editors to contribute to this work. For more information please see the TFI website.

The Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA) facilitates distribution and application of climate change related data and scenarios. The conduct of TGICA is governed by its mandate.
 
TGICA oversees a Data Distribution Centre (DDC) which provides data sets, scenarios of climate change and other environmental and socio-economic conditions, and other materials (e.g., technical guidelines on the use of scenarios and fact sheets offering clarifying explanations/concise guidance on topical issues).
 
TGICA also contributes to building capacity in the use of data and scenarios for climate-related research in developing and transition-economy regions and countries. TGICA also convenes expert meetings on an as needed basis and the DDC links to relevant data sets and information held outside the DDC, such as outputs produced from the new community-led process of scenario development to support climate change research.
 
Since the TGICA was established in 1996, a great deal has changed regarding needs and services for data and scenarios. Most significantly, the community of users has evolved from a relatively small group of researchers focusing on global-and regional-scale modelling of the impacts of climate change, to a large and diverse set of actors worldwide, including national, state/provincial, and local entities, business and industry, non-governmental organizations, and community groups, including participants in the UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. This more diverse group of users has a far more varied set of data and scenario needs, including data products more appropriate to settings with limited computational, communications, and research capacity. The process for preparation of scenarios has also changed, and has become a more open, interdisciplinary process with a larger number of interactions across the climate modelling, impacts/adaptation/vulnerability, and integrated assessment modelling communities. These changes provide new challenges and opportunities for the TGICA.
 
TGICA Membership was refreshed in the summer of 2010 (see table below). The first meeting of the reappointed Task Group (TGICA-16) was held at the National Center for Atmosphere Research in Boulder, Colorado, from 4-6 August 2010. Drs Timothy Carter (Finland) and Bruce Hewitson (South Africa) were appointed in May 2011 to serve as Interim TGICA Co-Chairs for a period of two years, with Dr Rachel Warren (United Kingdom) appointed as Co-Chair elect. A second full meeting, TGICA-17, was held at Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, Palo Alto, California, USA on 6-8 February 2012.
 
Further information about TGICA activities and developments can be found in Progress Reports submitted to Sessions of the IPCC. As of July 2012, three Progress Reports of the newly constituted Task Group are available for download. They are: IPCC-XXXV/Doc. 22 (June 2012), IPCC-XXXIV/Doc.13 (November 2011), and IPCC-XXXIII/Doc. 19 (May 2011). In addition, a Powerpoint presentation (pdf) about TGICA and its current activities was provided by the interim TGICA Co-Chairs at the 35th Session of the IPCC (6-9 June 2012, Geneva).
 
Currently, TGICA Members are:
 

Co-Chairs	Members		Ex Officio
Timothy Carter, Finland   Bruce Hewitson, South Africa	Daniel Bouille, Argentina   Stewart J. Cohen, Canada   Suraje Dessai, UK   Mariane Diop-Kane, France   Seita Emori, Japan   Gregory E. Insarov, Russia   Kejun Jiang, China   Tom Kram, Netherlands   Volker Krey, Austria	Won-Tae Kwon, South Korea   Jason Lowe, UK   Francisco Meza, Chile   Andy Reisinger, New Zealand   Fredrick Semazzi, USA   Allison Thomson, USA   Rachel Warren, UK (Co-chair elect)   Arthur Webb, Fiji   Fernanda Zermoglio, Sweden	Martin Juckes (DDC, BADC)   Michael Lautenschlager (DDC, MPI)   Robert Chen (DDC, CIESIN)   Pauline Midgley (IPCC, WG1 TSU)   Kristie Ebi (IPCC, WG2 TSU)   Jan Minx (IPCC, WG3 TSU)   Karl Taylor (PCMDI)   Xianfu Lu (UNFCCC)

Scenarios of potential future anthropogenic climate change, the underlying driving forces, and the response options have been an important component of IPCC work. In the past the IPCC coordinated the process of developing scenarios for its assessments (see AR 1990, SR 1994 and SRES 2000). In 2006 the IPCC decided that rather than directly coordinating and approving scenarios, the process of scenario development should be coordinated by the scientific community. The IPCC would catalyze the timely production of new scenarios for possible use in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). To this end an expert meeting was held on 19-21 September 2007 in Noorwijkerhout, the Netherlands (Report of the meeting) which considered the plans by the scientific community and agreed representative concentration pathways. The meeting was attended by experts on integrated assessment (IAM), impacts; adaptation and vulnerability research (IAV); and climate modelling (CM). The agreement on a parallel process for scenario development and the schedule for delivering products was important for the decision by the Panel on the schedule of the AR5.
 
The early identification of a set of "Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs) facilitates coordination of new integrated socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios. The main rationale for beginning with RCPs is to expedite the development of a broad literature of new and integrated scenarios by allowing the modeling of climate system responses to human activities to proceed in parallel to emissions scenario development.
 
Further information on scenario development and coordination with the scientific community can be found in the Progress Report submitted to the 32nd Session of the Panel, Busan, Republic of Korea, 11 - 14 October 2010 (IPCC-XXXII/Doc. 16). This report discusses the Draft Memorandum of Understanding between the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) and IPCC Working Groups II and III (IPCC-XXXII/INF.10), and the link between the IPCC and the scientific community on the scenario development process which continues now through the Co-Chairs of the Working Groups.
 
In this regard, a joint IPCC workshop of Working Groups II and III on "Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Change Impact and Response Assessments" was held in Berlin, Germary on 1-3 November 2010. For background and supporting material for this workshop, please see here.
 
Finally, the IPCC's Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA) also provides via the Data Distribution Centre (DDC) a new set of web pages that provide an overview of the new process under way for developing scenarios to support climate change research. These pages are intended for researchers who may wish to participate in scenario development, who use scenarios in their research, or who wish to learn more about current efforts to improve the coordination of different fields of climate research.
 
A presentation on the new process underway for developing scenarios was provided at the 35th Session of the IPCC in June 2012.