ESPN Mixed Martial Arts

SEATTLE -- Talking with a longtime MMA trainer earlier this week via text, I asked for his thoughts on the light heavyweight bout between Mauricio Rua and Alexander Gustafsson scheduled in the upcoming UFC on Fox event.

His response: “How much does Shogun have left?”

It’s one of the most uncomfortable questions fighters have to answer -- whether about themselves or their peers.

Gustafsson, who says he has admired Rua since the start of his career, admitted to me during an open workout Wednesday, “I don’t think Shogun is what he was back in the days of his prime.”

By the time he walked across the hall for a video interview with ESPN’s Todd Grisham, he must have decided (for whatever reason) it wasn’t the best response. He told Grisham he believes Rua is the same fighter he was five years ago.

Even Rua, whether because of a language barrier or because he wanted to sidestep the topic, answered vaguely when asked if he has slowed down.

“The sport has changed a lot,” Rua said. “Every day, you try to make yourself better and improve. So, everything in our lives change.”

What happens Saturday should tell us a lot about how much Rua, one of the most popular fighters of the past decade, has left in the tank.

By no means does he look like a man who needs to hang it up, but when it comes to talk of reclaiming the title and a rematch against a very dominant (young) Jon Jones -- Rua needs to show something to keep that kind of talk alive.

He was in position to earn that Jones rematch in August, when the UFC booked him to a No. 1 contender fight against Brandon Vera. Under public backlash at the thought of Vera (1-2 in his previous three fights) possibly getting a title shot, the UFC basically added the stipulation Rua needed to be impressive -- at least more impressive than Lyoto Machida, who was fighting Ryan Bader on the same night.

Rua defeated Vera via TKO in the fourth round, but it fell short of impressive. Vera threatened at an upset multiple times in the fight, staggering Rua with punches when the Brazilian failed to finish him early.

UFC president Dana White immediately announced Machida was the No. 1 contender and expressed concern over Rua’s performance.

“Those are the fights he’s been having lately,” said White at the postfight news conference. “Wars weigh on you. They are tough on the body.”

The talk surrounding this weekend's co-main event probably will revolve around the topic of a title shot for the winner, as they usually tend to do. Beneath the surface though, it probably represents more.

Rua faces a 25-year-old prospect, who probably sees the fight as a perfect test as to whether he’s ready for his own shot at the title in 2013. Technically, I believe Rua is still better than Gustafsson, but if he can’t match his athleticism, he’s in trouble (probably the reason oddsmakers have him nearly a 2-1 underdog).

How much does Shogun have left? The answer should clear up after this weekend.

Fireworks are sure to fly Saturday at KeyArena in Seattle when UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson defends his title against Nate Diaz. Here is a look inside the numbers for the UFC on Fox main event:

6 -- Inches in reach advantage for Diaz (76 to 70). Diaz is 3-0 since dropping back down to 155 pounds, where he has used his reach advantage and unorthodox boxing style to outclass Takanori Gomi, Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller on the feet. After landing only 62 significant strikes combined in back-to-back unanimous decision losses to welterweights Dong Hyun Kim and Rory MacDonald, Diaz landed a UFC-record 238 significant strikes in his classic stand-up battle with Cerrone at UFC 141. Henderson hasn’t fought with a definitive reach disadvantage since his unanimous decision victory over Mark Bocek at UFC 129.

48 -- Percentage of takedowns Henderson has completed, as well as the percentage of takedowns Diaz has defended. A former two-time NAIA All-American wrestler, Henderson might look for the takedown early if the reach of Diaz becomes a problem. Henderson’s preference was to keep the fight standing in his two close decisions over fellow wrestler Frankie Edgar, but he completed a combined 10 of 11 takedowns in unanimous decision victories over Bocek and Miller. Diaz does have a history of being controlled on the ground as all five of his UFC losses have come at the hands of high-level grapplers. After being taken down a combined 10 times in losses to Kim and MacDonald, Diaz was put on his back only once in five attempts by Miller.

20 -- Number of submission attempts by Diaz, eighth most in UFC history. If Henderson does choose to bring the fight to the ground, he must be wary of the high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills of Diaz. Eight of Diaz’s 11 UFC wins have come via submission, most of any active UFC fighter. His guillotine finish of Miller at UFC on Fox 3 in May was the first time Miller had been submitted in 25 professional fights. Finishing Henderson will be no easy task, however, as the lightweight champ has not been submitted since his third career fight back in 2007. Henderson has made a habit of escaping deep submission attempts in his rise to prominence but would be wise not to test those Houdini skills against the Cesar Gracie black belt.

19:00 -- Henderson’s average UFC fight time, longest in UFC history (minimum five fights). Henderson has been criticized for his inability to finish a UFC opponent, as he has not tasted victory via knockout or submission since catching Cerrone in a guillotine back at WEC 48. The streak figures to be difficult to end against Diaz, whose armbar loss to Hermes Franca in 2006 remains the only time he has been finished in 23 professional fights. Both fighters also have never been knocked out in their careers, increasing the probability that, no matter who emerges with the belt, the bout is likely to go distance.

Statistical support provided by FightMetric

From Jake Shields to Gilbert Melendez to Nick Diaz, Cesar Gracie has groomed popular mixed martial arts champions, though never a UFC king.

That will change Saturday if Nate Diaz topples lightweight champion Benson Henderson at UFC on Fox 5 in Seattle to win his first professional belt.

"My whole team has been champions somewhere down the line," Diaz said during a conference call last week. "Maybe it's my turn to represent for my team."

If so, it would mark the culmination of something few people thought possible until recently.

"Here's Nate without those titles," Gracie said. "It would be huge for him to get the most prestigious belt of all."

Huge … well, of course. A win for Diaz, who at 27 remains the "kid" of the group, represents the crowning achievement for a contingent of fighters who literally became men together at Gracie's academy in Concord, Calif.

Gracie met Nick Diaz and Nate Diaz 13 years ago, when elder brother Nick forced his baby brother to go to the gym and train. At Gracie's they were treated the same as everyone else, which is to say they weren't treated any way at all.

"You've got to remember, there's always a lot of kids going into an academy," Gracie said. "You don't really differentiate anybody and don't think anything of it. They have to differentiate themselves.

"They have to stand up by staying the course. We'll get a lot of guys and I'll fully expect not to see them five years later. We didn't give Nate any special attention or anything like that. It was sink or swim, and he swam."

Minnows swim, too, they just won't scare other fish. In time -- despite his tall and skinny build, despite his brother's looming shadow and despite a dearth of wrestling in his game -- Nate, like the guys around him, grew dangerous in predatorily deep waters. That's how it was, because that was their world.

Shields and the elder Diaz scrapped all the time -- iron sharpening iron and such. They shared designs on becoming MMA champions and propelling the team forward, which in the early days included putting Nate, who wasn't yet old enough to drive, heads-up with Melendez, a college wrestler.

Nate was mostly pushed around in the beginning, "but he was as squirmy and tenacious as always," Melendez said. "Just a lot of fight in him. No one can last three five-minute rounds with Nate or three five-minute rounds with me in the training room, but we can do it with each other. And we'd battle each other a lot like that."

Ahead of Diaz's contest with Henderson, Melendez described his close friend as "tough to handle," keenly aware of what's happening in a fight, prone to filling opponents full of anxiety while maintaining his sanity, and "10 times more tactical now" than he was a couple years ago.

"I think Nate totally looks up to Nick's style and learned from him the way I learned from Jake," said the Strikeforce lightweight champion. "We're pretty much students of big bros."

From white belts to black belts, from aspiring fighters to top-ranked champions, Melendez described the camp as "more than a team."

"I've been to other gyms and saw people throw hissy fits, throwing headgear and going on rants," he said. "That's never it for us. Nothing like that. Believe it or not, we beat the crap out of each other sometimes, and afterwards we just brainstorm how to make each other better and we go out and have some food. It's been really good."

Riding a three-bout winning streak at 155 after a stint at welterweight, the younger Diaz has never looked better -- or bigger, a benefit of moving up in weight and all that eating. Forged out of gym fights, street fights and brotherly fights, Henderson's challenger mimics a thrilling style by combining accurate volume punching with an active guard and potent submission game.

"He doesn't only copy Nick," Shields said, though the brotherly effect on Nate's game is unmistakable. "Nate does train with different people and has that influence. When I spar Nick and spar Nate, I definitely see a lot of the same stuff, but different techniques as well."

Diaz is especially useful with range and reach, and he can catch anyone on a hip toss. He'll need the full scope of his skills to upend Henderson, who comes into Saturday's contest the bigger, stronger, faster, more athletic man.

On the surface, that's trouble. Diaz has a reputation for struggling against larger grapplers, especially those intent on going to the judges.

However, since winning Season 5 of "The Ultimate Fighter," eclipsing his 25th birthday, and returning to 155 from 170, the kid doesn't come off like one anymore.

"A hilarious journey," Melendez called it. More importantly, he hasn't self-destructed like his 29-year-old brother, whose costly run-ins with promoters, fellow fighters, state athletic commissions and media are well-documented.

As an example: Nate, the current No. 1 lightweight contender, despises interviews, probably more than anyone alive, Shields said. Yet at last week’s media call, he proved capable of showing up.

"I'm sure he's learned a few things here and there,” Melendez said. "He'll play the game and I think he's serious about winning the title.

"He makes his own choices. His big brother helps him a lot, but he's still his own man."

"The Prodigy" has always been an enigma.

B.J. Penn retired in 2011, citing the unpresentable condition of his face after a three-round brawl with Nick Diaz. He told Joe Rogan in the postfight interview, "I've got a daughter, and another daughter on the way. I don't want to go home looking like this."

Of course, nobody believed him.

That was 18 pay-per-views ago at UFC 137 in Las Vegas. It took less than a year for the reach of obsoletion to hit Hilo. Once Penn began to fade into "was," the old fire began to burn in him again to get back to "is." So he called out upstart Rory MacDonald, the one guy in the welterweight division nobody wants to fight right now.

Is he crazy, people wondered. A lightweight masquerading as a welterweight against a middleweight masquerading as a welterweight? What's he thinking?

The truth is, we never really know what Penn is thinking. He's just B.J. being B.J., and a left-field callout is par for the course. That's why people love him. He's never been explicable.

Yet at the heart of it, the reason he circled MacDonald to end that brief retirement feels like it has less to do with MacDonald than with something broader. It was, to be perfectly cliché, the lure of greatness. What the one-time UFC lightweight and welterweight champion was trying to say on the media call a couple of weeks back is that there's nothing romantic about the past tense.

"I actually texted Dana [White] awhile back and said, 'Dana, I watch all these interviews and all these people talking, and no one says my name when they talk about the greatest fighters anymore … and I really don't like that,'" Penn said. "That was actually a big part of my motivation to come back and look strong and do a good fight here on Dec. 8. I want to be known as one of the best."

And besides, at just 33 years old, Penn shouldn't be a thing of the past. But the real question is, was he ever great to begin with?

There have been times in his career when Penn has realized his potential, yet he could never sustain it. He was just 5-5-1 in title fights in both the welter and lightweight divisions, yet he was in 11 title fights and defended the 155-pound belt three times, and never fought cans. He's had loud moments of greatness (Matt Hughes at UFC 46, Sean Sherk, Diego Sanchez, even the first Georges St-Pierre fight), just as he's had moments of extreme disappointment (usually as a welterweight).

To this day it's hard to know which it's going to be.

Maybe that's why, perhaps more than any other MMA fighter in the sport's aboveground history, Penn is so scrutinized before a fight. We love to gauge his demeanor as much as his midsection. Is Penn interested? Is he in shape? Is he motivated? Did he train hard? Is he running along the bottom of the Pacific Ocean with a large boulder cradled in his arms?

In short -- does he care?

Heading into his fight with MacDonald on Saturday night in Seattle, the indications are that Penn does care. The time away fuels this optimism. There are the visible abs. There is the "thing to prove." He's got motivation from having been forgotten. There's his ongoing rivalry with Tristar Gym and MacDonald's comments.

Those things you can read into.

But more exciting is his sincerity. When we believe Penn is sincere, it means something. It's as good as momentum. It adds to the primal literalness that Penn brings to the fight game, as if there was never such a thing as manufactured hype. It adds to the wild eyes and the lizard tongue and all the face-slapping on his walkout to Israel Kamakawiwo'ole's mix of "Hawaii '78/E Ala E." It is Penn's aura, and the very embodiment of island life and the warrior spirit.

We like that version of him, the old-school Penn. MacDonald calls himself "Ares," the Greek god of war? Penn is war incarnate, son. He is conflict.

That's the B.J. Penn whom fight fans love, and the one he's trying to get back to. Not the one who is 1-4-1 in his last six fights at 170 pounds. And, if history tells us anything, the other Penn is never far away. While St-Pierre guards against complacency like an obsessionist since losing to Matt Serra, Penn has embodied complacency too often, to be sure.

Which will it be? See there, that's the thing: We don't know. But after more than a year away from the fight game, there's something about Penn that transcends his 16-8-2 record and makes you want to believe him.

And that's what returns Saturday night -- Penn's unique air of mystery.

If the opportunity for a rematch with Carlos Condit presents itself, fast-rising welterweight contender Rory MacDonald will leap at it.

MacDonald wants that rematch, and isn’t shy about expressing his sentiment: Condit is the only fighter to beat him inside the Octagon. But don’t take MacDonald’s openness about wanting a rematch with Condit as evidence that he’s failing to focus on matters at hand. He has a fight Saturday night in Seattle with BJ Penn. And MacDonald is 100 percent determined to walk away from the cage that evening victorious.

The only reason he has mentioned Condit’s name over the past several weeks is that people have regularly requested his thoughts on the former UFC 170-pound interim titleholder.

And it is not part of MacDonald’s makeup to avoid answering questions truthfully.

“I answered those questions honestly,” MacDonald told ESPN.com. “I would like to fight Carlos next; that’s my honest answer.

“I completely understand what’s in front of me Saturday night. That is 100 percent my focus: BJ Penn on Dec. 8. I’m just honest with myself and honest with everybody in the media asking me questions. I don’t want to give half-truths or beat around the bush when asked a question.”

Honestly, MacDonald (13-1) knows no other way to communicate. It’s an essential part of his character and has played a major part in his development as a mixed martial artist. MacDonald is just 23 years old, but his age should not be considered when measuring his maturity level. One month before his 21st birthday, MacDonald relocated from Kelowna, British Columbia, to Montreal in 2010.

He traveled across Canada to begin full-time training at TriStar gym. The decision to move was easy for MacDonald; it was made a few days after his first professional loss.

“If you watch that fight, you can see the intensity in my face,” MacDonald said of his first meeting with Condit, a third-round TKO on June 12, 2010, at UFC 112. “And I fought that way. It’s not my style and I paid for it that night. He beat the [crap] out of me.”

As a result of that loss, MacDonald -- being honest -- concluded he needed to make a major change in order to take his career to the next level.

“I’ve had a lot of experiences and I’ve learned from every one of them,” MacDonald said. “That’s made me the person I am today.

“Moving to Montreal was the biggest experience.”

While that decision was easy, MacDonald had been making tough decisions for several years. From the age of 16 he’d been living on his own. He’s an independent thinker, though wise enough to listen to and accept any point of view that might prove beneficial. This formula has served MacDonald well thus far as a professional fighter.

Having one of the best trainers in mixed martial arts, Firas Zahabi, in his corner, and several top fighters for sparring partners -- including UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre -- have helped MacDonald improve in all areas of fighting.

Being honest, an independent thinker, mature beyond his years, confident and physically talented has placed MacDonald on the cusp of MMA greatness. Defeating Condit in a rematch would go a long way toward achieving the high expectations many have for MacDonald, but first he must take care of business Saturday night.

Penn is the most determined he’s been in many years. The former UFC lightweight/welterweight champion is motivated to again have his name mentioned as an all-time MMA great.

And Penn isn’t just offering lip service to promote the bout. He’s in the best shape ever for a 170-pound fight.

“It’s good for him that he respected me enough that he actually worked a little bit and got himself in shape, because he’s going to need it,” MacDonald said.

“At the end of the day I can’t control what type of shape BJ is going to be in or what level of skill he possesses. I can only control myself. If I start worrying or stressing about things I can’t control that’s just going to be a damper or weight on my shoulders that I feel I don’t need.”

That’s just MacDonald being honest again. And it’s another reason why the odds favor him leaving the cage Saturday night with his hand raised.

Condit, who is coming off a unanimous-decision loss to St-Pierre at UFC 154 on Nov. 17, might want to pay close attention to MacDonald on Saturday. The two could be back in the cage for a rematch sometime in 2013.

And next time around, MacDonald won’t be overwhelmed by the moment or an inexperienced fighter inside the Octagon.

Light heavyweight contender Alexander Gustafsson has looked impressive inside the Octagon, especially during his current five-fight win streak.

With each fight his striking becomes sharper and more accurate. His footwork has improved to the point that, coupled with a stiff jab, he easily controls how much space exists between himself and an opponent.

Getting hit by Gustafsson is a given; returning the favor is proving more problematic for the opposition. Fighters are finding it very difficult these days to get close to Gustafsson.

But there is much more to his game than what’s been on display thus far.

Gustafsson, who is ranked sixth among 205-pound fighters by ESPN.com, will face former titleholder Mauricio Rua on Saturday night in Seattle.

Both fighters enjoy competing on the feet. But if you think Gustafsson, who is 14-1 with nine knockouts, will only find success against Rua by dominating the stand-up battle, think again.

“Oh man! Alex’s striking has gotten better,” fellow UFC light heavyweight contender Phil Davis told ESPN.com. “But he’s a guy who’s not content with where he is as a fighter; he’s constantly growing.

“His wrestling has gotten better. He has some really slick takedowns. He’s dangerous on the top and bottom now. He has always been dangerous from the top with his hands, but now he has some pretty good submissions, too.”

This ringing endorsement from Davis isn’t to be taken lightly. He knows first-hand the progress Gustafsson has made in the past two years. Davis is the fighter who handed Gustafsson his lone professional loss. And Davis is quick to admit that Gustafsson is not the same guy he submitted in April 2010.

And Davis should know. After their showdown at UFC 112, Gustafsson and Davis decided to become training partners. It’s a partnership that has paid off handsomely for each fighter: Davis’ striking has improved immensely since sparring regularly with Gustafsson at Alliance MMA in San Diego.

Gustafsson, who still does the majority of his training in Stockholm, has taken his ground skills to a much higher level with Davis’ help.

“I’ve learned a lot from him and he’s learned a lot from me,” Gustafsson told ESPN.com.” We have a great relationship. “We’re teammates; we train together.”

But expanding his training camp would have meant little if Gustafsson hadn’t committed completely to mixed martial arts. Before his bout with Davis, MMA was a part-time gig for Gustafsson. Much of his day was spent working construction.

But the loss to Davis served as an eye-opener. Determined to unearth all his talents, Gustafsson decided to quit the construction job and become a full-time mixed martial artist.

“To be at the top level of the division and to compete in UFC, you have to do this full time,” Gustafsson said. “You can’t just do this as a hobby. You have to fully commit to it.

“Every fight is a learning experience, whether it’s a win or a loss. You have to improve; that’s how you develop. I try to get better with every fight -- my boxing, my wrestling, my jiu-jitsu, everything. It’s been an ongoing process and it hasn’t stopped.”

Striking alone makes Gustafsson competitive with Rua; the improvements he’s made in other areas make him a genuine threat.

Davis for one believes Saturday night will be Gustafsson’s coming-out party. It is in this fight that Gustafsson will likely get to put all his skills on display.

“The timing [of the fight with Rua] couldn’t be any better,” Davis said. “Alex has come into his own as a fighter. There’s so much about his game the public hasn’t seen inside the Octagon.”

Rua (21-6, 18 wins by knockout) is arguably the toughest test of Gustafsson’s career. But that doesn’t concern Gustafsson. He welcomes the opportunity to square off against a seasoned striker like Rua. He’s also confident that his hand will be raised when the bout is over.

While Gustafsson is focused on Rua, his confidence allows him to sneak a peek at what awaits after Saturday night. And Gustafsson likes what he sees.

UFC president Dana White has hinted that the Rua-Gustafsson winner could become the top contender at 205.

“When I win this fight with Shogun, I will be more than ready [to win the light heavyweight title],” Gustafsson said. “I know I have the tools to beat [Jon Jones].

“Shogun is my only focus right now, but when I beat him I know I will be more than ready to fight for the title. And I know I will take the belt. I just know it.”

Matt Brown is the protagonist in an adventure tale that’s still being told. His is a story with so many highs and lows, so many ebbs and flows that he can describe for you the gutter (in sincere detail) while sketching a general idea of the penthouse (his very own silo, maybe).

The plot is a continuously rolling thing that boils down to the essence of all human drama -- just stay alive. Only his story intersects with the fight game.

Toward the end of 2011, Brown lost a fight to Seth Baczynski, his fourth loss in five UFC bouts. All of the losses were of the submission variety. For a guy who’d already overcome so much in life -- addiction, overdosing on heroin, losing his father, a stint on “The Ultimate Fighter 7” -- it looked as if Brown was perhaps mortal after all.

But you don’t get a nickname like “The Immortal” unless you are ruthlessly resilient. To the UFC’s credit, it did not cut the Ohio native Brown, a blue-collar scrapper in the welterweight division. Instead, it threw him in the Octagon with another TUF alum in Chris Cope, and that was the beginning of Brown’s latest resurrection. He’s won all three of his bouts this year heading into his Dec. 8 fight with a similarly resilient Mike Swick.

From life on the bubble to an inspirational tale is heartwarming stuff, right? Not if you’ve never been into tidy Hallmark sentiments.

“I don’t really think about it,” Brown told ESPN.com. “I’ve learned just [to] take it one fight at a time, to not worry about the past or the future, and just worry about what you’ve got to do today to be the best you can.”

A boring, staid statement like that in the hands of other men might test your immune system toward clichés.

But Brown is sincere. If you’ve listened to him talk at any point in his four years in the UFC, you know that he doesn’t get too high on the highs, nor too low on the lows. It truly is a “one foot in front of the other” proposition. He’s not eyeing the 170-pound belt, because he doesn’t do horizons. He doesn’t do animosity, trash talk or social media eavesdropping, either. In fact, between training with Robert Drysdale and Mark Meacher out in Las Vegas and his camp back in Ohio, he barely kept up with what was going on with the outside world.

For example, asked how it felt to hear the recently victorious John Hathaway calling out the winner of the match between him and Swick -- to be in a position where guys are trying to get to him, rather than the other way around -- Brown suppressed a yawn.

“I don’t care. I don’t pay attention to that stuff,” he says. Then it dawned on him, and he added: “I thought [Hathaway] and Matt Riddle had a little beef or something? I thought he was going to end up fighting Riddle.”

In other words, Dan Hardy (who had the beef with Riddle) and Hathaway are interchangeable to a guy who doesn’t put much thought into anything other than what’s in front of him. And right now that’s a nationally televised bout with Swick, who came back from a stomach ailment that sidelined him for 2½ years to knock out DaMarques Johnson in August.

“[Swick] presents a lot of challenges. He’s got fast hands, he’s an explosive guy,” Browns said. “He’s got a pretty solid punch that will hurt you pretty good. And he seems to have a good ground game. So yeah, all around, he’s pretty solid. He’ll give you a lot of problems on all aspects.”

Anybody who’s paid attention to Brown’s career knows that he’s technical, but he’s willing to brawl as well. He does brawl, because to him it’s never anything other than a fight. A Brown scrap is always a combination of technique, savagery, instinct and attrition. His in-cage gravitas makes it that much more intense.

Swick is much the same way.

What’s the hunch? That as they kick off the big UFC on FOX 5 card, you can’t help but think this one could be a showstopper. That, even though it is fourth billing to Nate Diaz versus Benson Henderson, Alexander Gustafsson versus Mauricio Rua and BJ Penn versus Rory MacDonald, that it could sneak off with some end-of-the-night bonus money.

You’d think that, but history suggests otherwise. For all of the careening in Brown’s career, there’s one thing he hasn’t accomplished in 13 fights -- he’s never been awarded an end-of-the-night bonus in anything. That’s almost hard to believe when you think about it, but it’s true.

“I always think I’ve got fight of the night,” he says. “Then I don’t get it.”

Maybe Saturday night, Brown uses this theme to begin a new chapter to his incomplete adventure tale.

Michael Bisping believes Vitor Belfort will be made to look like a "punching bag" when the two meet in the Octagon at UFC on FX 7 in January. More »

Jon Fitch felt UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre would be too much for Carlos Condit. And the American expects the same of himself when he meets Demian Maia on Super Bowl weekend in Las Vegas.

"It will be an interesting matchup," Fitch told ESPN.com after verbally agreeing to the fight last week. "I haven't created too much of a game plan, but I think I'll overwhelm him with everything that I bring to the table."

The bout will likely suffer from a lack of headlines leading up to UFC 156, in large part because the card, as it unofficially stacks up, is loaded. Then again, like the stone-grinding that follows Fitch from fight to fight, a weak spotlight is normal. While Maia isn't a particularly powerful draw either, his recent conversion down to welterweight has revitalized the Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizard's prospects of fighting for a UFC championship.

Maia looks every bit a serious, well-rounded mixed martial arts contender, and Fitch is the perfect guy to test that.

"He's really a monster at 170," Fitch said. "I was surprised at how big he was down in Rio [at UFC 153]."

Despite Maia's size -- along with everything else the 35-year-old Brazilian brings into the cage -- Fitch believes his own work rate and pressure will prove too much. That's how the wrestler unwound the tornado that is Erick Silva in mid-October, when he and Maia were tremendous at UFC 153.

Fitch, 34, has been a fixture at the top of the welterweight class for the past five years, and it's hard to argue a win over Maia wouldn't put him in prime position to fight for the belt again.

"I think as far as depth, 170 has always been the best weight class," Fitch said.

The assessment sounds fair to me. Welterweight has long been a marquee moneymaking division for the UFC because of its competitive strength and dominant champions. These days, St-Pierre has no shortage of potent threats to cope with, and Fitch-Maia should do the job of producing yet another.

Franklin to fulfill his end

Nearly three weeks after Cung Le knocked him cold in Macau, Rich Franklin sounds prepared to soldier on and honor the last fight of his contract with the UFC.

Franklin met Thursday with his manager, JT Stewart. The former UFC middleweight champion expects to take a fight at 185 pounds, Stewart said, though Franklin doesn’t have an opponent in mind.

“Doesn’t matter,” Stewart said.

If indeed it’s Franklin’s last rumble -- Stewart would only commit to “we will see” -- you can understand why middleweight is the destination. Franklin, now 38, reached his peak at the weight before Anderson Silva arrived and produced many moments since turning pro in 1999.

An odd one I was glad to see in person came in January 2001 in far-flung Friant, Calif. Fighting at 220 pounds, Franklin’s sixth pro bout came against Aaron Brink and turned out to be the only no-contest of his career.

Brink, a brawler, was a couple months removed from an armbar loss to Andrei Arlovski (the Belarusian’s first fight in the Octagon). Managed by Monte Cox at the time, Franklin was unbeaten in five fights, all stoppages, and undoubtedly a talent to watch.

Competing on an "IFC: Warriors Challenge" event meant this was the first time a promoter had flown Franklin out from Ohio to fight. He really shouldn’t have shown up. (I remember Cox saying Franklin’s fever was as high as 104 a couple hours before the event, but this was a long time ago.) Anyhow, “Ace” stepped in the cage to battle for IFC’s illustrious United States light heavyweight title. Crazily, midway through the first round of a slugfest, Brink’s right leg wedged between the cage and the canvas.
I’ve never seen anything like that again.

All together now?

Promoting UFC 154 at ESPN in Bristol a couple weeks back, Dana White’s many stops included a SportsNation chat with fans.

Leo from Salt Lake wondered when we’ll see a fighters union in the UFC.

This was White’s response:

“I doubt it. The thing about fighting is, fighting is not a team sport, it's an individual sport. It's going to be tough to see a day with Silva or GSP is giving up big chunks of their money to guys who won't make two fights in the UFC. Different sports. But if it happens, it happens. I have to negotiate with somebody on the fight contracts.”

Why would creating a union require Silva or GSP or any fighter to give up a chunk of money, let alone a big one? That doesn’t make sense based on the inroads unions and associations made in other sports.

I wonder how Marvin Miller would have reacted to White’s comment. Miller transformed Major League Baseball by organizing its players into one of the country’s strongest unions. His death Tuesday spawned widespread admiration, including this tweet from 28-year-old energy broker/UFC lightweight John Cholish:

“Very sad to hear of the loss of Marvin Miller, wish #MMA and #MMAFighters had a man like him #Greatness”.

Now that Frankie Edgar has finally been persuaded to fight in the UFC’s featherweight division, we can get on with other fresher transplantations.

Next up: Jose Aldo, to lightweight.

Go figure. Edgar goes down to fight for Aldo’s belt; Aldo goes up, so long as he defends that belt in a satisfactory manner against Edgar on Feb. 2. They’re gauging things whichever way you look at it -- just two ships passing in the night.

(Or, you know, two high-powered motorboats).

And if Aldo defends that belt, expect Edgar to return to 155 pounds, too. He’s really just dipping his toe in the water. And if Aldo loses at lightweight, he’ll whittle his form back down to 145 pounds. And even if he wins at lightweight, he may get greedy and become an exotic collector of belts.

Greatness is not above hoarding.

Why all the division jumping? Because, for one thing, disappearing from a familiar weight class and appearing in a foreign one means reinvention. It means fresh challenges for fighters, and intriguing, previously only imagined match-ups for fight fans. It’s rethinking divisional rankings and visible abs. Most of all, it means something new, and in the fight game new is always appreciated.

Everybody likes to have a reset button, and these days more and more fighters are using it. Why not? It’s usually a smart play, especially as the UFC grows along with our fascination in matchmaking. Some careers need kick-starts, and others just need a little spice.

Others being Anderson Silva, who does it because, so far as most of us can tell, he’s bored. Now he’s talking about cutting down to something in the range of 178 pounds for a catchweight fight with Georges St-Pierre (a fighter whose hands go clammy when he contemplates playing fast and loose with weight fluctuations). For Nik Lentz, it’s to make a name he couldn’t make at lightweight. For Demetrious Johnson, it’s because he was tired of fighting 135-pound monsters. Ditto Chris Cariaso.

It goes on.

Former middleweight Demian Maia went from one of the slickest practitioners of human origami ever to enter the Octagon (circa 2007-09) before turning into a nondescript kickboxer who lost a lot. What did he do? He began by dropping down to 170 pounds, and in the process he remembered the jiu-jitsu that Fabio Gurgel spent all that time teaching him. Reinvention? More like repentance. He’s remembering his roots while on a diet of apples and tuna.

Tim Boetsch went from the first-ever victim of a Phil Davis “Philmura” to a middleweight contender. He has rattled off four wins in a row at 185 pounds. Nate Diaz has similarly re-reinvented himself by going back down to lightweight, and is now fighting for the 155-pound title against Benson Henderson on Dec. 8. B.J. Penn and Dan Henderson will appear in whatever weight class they need to, no questions asked. Kenny Florian tried four weight classes, and came up a bridesmaid in most. Chael Sonnen? He falls forward into title shots when he goes to light heavyweight. Same can’t be said for Rich Franklin.

Clay Guida goes down. Jon Jones, one day soon, will go up. We love the idea of that.

And Anthony Johnson? He has yet to find the weight class that can contain him. Maybe 205 pounds is right where he needs to be -- but if you’ve seen him walking around the Blackzilians gym in Delmar Beach, Fla., hulking like a linebacker and dwarfing guys such as Rashad Evans, you wouldn’t be so sure.

So what does it all mean? That Mike Dolce is in business, and that Georges St-Pierre is the new minority. He is at least a little reluctant to fight Anderson Silva because he’s (A) not desperate, (B) not bored or (C) not entirely masochistic. He is just dominant. At 170 pounds. Right where he knows he’s greatest.

If he declines to fight Anderson Silva at anything other than 170 pounds, he’ll not only be blameless in the ordeal, he’ll stand as a kind of traditionalist. He won’t just be defending his belt as a stubborn champion, he’ll become the defender of the weight classes.

And with so much movement between divisions, right now that in itself might feel like something new.

John Hathaway has told ESPN that the winner of Matt Brown versus Mike Swick at UFC on Fox 5 might prove a more interesting fight for him than Matt Riddle, and he would be happy to go abroad to get the matchup. More »

If you're put on hold after dialing Bellator Fighting Championships' office in Newport Beach, Calif., it only takes a second to recognize the supercharged commentary of Sean Wheelock and Jimmy Smith.

Waiting to speak with Bjorn Rebney -- the promotion's promoter -- Wheelock and Smith happened to be screaming over Michael Chandler's epic finish last year of Eddie Alvarez, which was perfect, considering what I was calling about Tuesday morning.


Rebney published an open letter on Bellator.com on Monday stating the company's revised position on championship rematches. Essentially: Under the right circumstances, they would promote them.

The obvious place to begin would have been a second tilt between Chandler and Alvarez. Rebney said it's the fight he gets asked about most in airports and arenas during weekly jaunts from show to show.

There’s very little doubt in Rebney’s mind that “had Chandler-Alvarez happened today, regardless of Ed’s situation, I would be on the phone probably four minutes after the fight with Kevin Kay at Spike network saying ‘When are we going to do this again?’ Because it would have had such a dramatic impact on viewership and fan response.”

In reality, he’s talking up the rematch that got away. Alvarez is a free agent currently negotiating with the UFC and Rebney sounds accepting of the former champion’s likely departure. Still, the outcry to see Alvarez get a chance at avenging his title loss to Chandler, said Rebney, "got the wheels in motion" for change.

"I'm never going to be one that completely plants the flag in the ground and say there's no room for growth, there's no room for deviation," he said. "There's always room to make things better.

"There's always room to make the product better for fans, better for fighters. I think we did that."

Rebney is now promising that if fans call for a rematch, and if there's consensus from Bellator president Tim Danaher and matchmakers Sam Caplan and Zach Light, and if Kevin Kay at Spike is interested, then so it shall be. There’s also a move down the road to pay-per-view to consider.

“Those are going to be driving concerns,” he said.

Less worrying, Rebney noted, was the idea that Alvarez (or any fighter in the same position) could fight for a belt while not being locked up to a deal. If it’s worth promoting, he said, they’ll do it. And Bellator contracts, considered among MMA’s most rigid, would not have to be revised in any way.

"There's just a lot of fights coming up where you just want the option to be able to say, 'That was awesome, you're the champ and you earned your spot. Here, let's do it again,'" Rebney said.

This would appear to be a departure from the concept Rebney put forth in 2009, in which Bellator title shots are earned when a fighter advances through an eight-man qualifying tournament. Rebney said he'd considered the issue for a while and is "at peace with it" because the "decision stays true to who we are and what we're about" and the show maintains a substantial point of difference from other organizations in the sport.

“I think what you’re looking at right now is the industry kind of fitting into where the industry will fit for the next five years,” Rebney said. “And I think we’re heading in a good direction. Any time you’ve got a huge, powerful, innovative company like Viacom, not just distributing content, but vested, owning a huge piece of the company, and tremendously devoted to its success and brand development, and you’ve got another major giant out there [Fox] who has made a very large financial commitment to the UFC, who obviously has a vested interest in trying to see that that content does well, I think it’s a positive."

During a teleconference Tuesday for UFC’s return to Fox on Dec. 8 in Seattle, Eric Shanks, president of Fox Sports Media Group, came off as bullish over the network’s partnership with Zuffa heading into 2013.

By no means was this Rebney’s most difficult call, but it does indicate that a month before Bellator begins its partnership with Spike that clearing the deck for fan- and television-friendly fights is a big part of the thinking these days.

"No one is talking their way into a world title fight [in Bellator]. Nobody is being groomed a la a boxing format where you get 24 wins against nobodies and get there,” he said. “You've got to beat three spectacularly world-class fighters and once you've done it, if you give fans an unbelievable showing, if it's an epic fight, if it's an Alvarez-Chandler type of fight, then it just made sense to me, and I believe we're staying true to who we are. We're not by any stretch of the imagination eliminating the objectivity. We're not eliminating the tournament structure. We're not eliminating the need to earn your shot. But I think it betters who we are."

In the parlance of Bjorn Rebney, "spectacularly world-class fighters" Lyman Good and Andrey Koreshkov will fight for the welterweight tournament crown Friday at the Soaring Eagle Casino & Resort in Mount Pleasant, Mich. Bellator has roughly 170 fighters under contract as it enters the next phase of its existence, in which Viacom’s financial backing and Spike’s television platform portend a boost for the promotion.

Good or Koreshkov would fight either titleholder Ben Askren or Frenchman Karl Amoussou, whomever wins their meeting sometime in January. No date has been announced, though Rebney expects this and other news to be made over the next few weeks.

Rebney said he hopes for three title fights per year at each weight.

"God willing there will be a lot of rematches, because if we're doing a lot of rematches it means we've had a series of epic world title fights,” he said. “That's awesome. That's what you want. You want the biggest fights to be the best fights."

If your prediction for next month’s welterweight fight between BJ Penn and Rory MacDonald is basically the bigger man will smother the smaller man and win, no one blames you.

Not even Penn.

History suggests Penn is in for a tough night when he meets MacDonald on Dec. 8 in Seattle. Arguably the greatest lightweight of all time, he’s been mediocre at 170 pounds, going 1-4-1 in the division since returning to the UFC in 2006.

That record, combined with his oftentimes pudgy physique when weighing in as a welterweight, has set low expectations on a fighter many consider one of the most talented ever. Penn isn’t naïve. He hears what they’re saying about this fight.

“It’s going to be unbelievable,” Penn told ESPN.com. “[Everyone thinks] a short, fat guy is going to show up -- that [MacDonald] will lean on me and throw me around.

“They always say that, and you know what? They’re right. All the fans, all the people who have been saying it for years, they’re right.”

Penn (16-8-2) plans to prove us wrong this time, though. He’s spent the past couple of months sparring with 200-pound welterweights Ben Askren, Jay Hieron, Tyron Woodley and Tarec Saffiedine.

He originally planned to coach himself for the fight, but ultimately reunited with former trainer Tony Aponte. Former Strikeforce matchmaker Rich Chou, who invited all the welterweights to Hawaii, assembled the camp.

After getting up to 187 pounds while he pondered retirement, Penn says he’ll be at 175 the week of the fight -- “with abs.” That’s significant when you consider his past as a welterweight, where he’s typically weighed in at less than 170 pounds.

He’s also talking regularly about things like body fat percentages. His, he says, is currently sitting around 10 percent. He also posted a YouTube video to show his progress.

“I’ve never approached 170 like this,” Penn said. “The reason wearing [opponents’] weight was killing me before was because I was legitimately a smaller, fatter man. Now, I don’t see that as being a problem, especially on fight night when they are weak from cutting weight.”

His supporters will say that’s terrific, but will it matter? MacDonald will still likely enter the cage at least 15 to 20 pounds bigger.

“

The reason wearing [opponents'] weight was killing me before was because I was legitimately a smaller, fatter man. Now, I don't see that as being a problem, especially on fight night when they are weak from cutting weight.

” -- BJ Penn, on his new approach to making the welterweight limit

When a smaller fighter moves up in weight, typically the keys to success are speed, elusiveness and endurance. Penn’s game, as dynamic as it is, has never been built around those specific foundations.

That will leave him a significant underdog next month (around 3-to-1, according to most oddsmakers), but it seems as though that’s the way he prefers it. He’s all but closed the doors to ever returning to lightweight. He's a welterweight from here on out -- and from his perspective, December will be the first time he or anyone else sees what he’s truly capable of as one.

“Let’s find out on Dec. 8,” Penn said. “It’s not going to be what everyone is thinking, 100 percent. It’s not going to be what he’s thinking. He’s going to be surprised when he sees me across the ring, guaranteed.

“The door [to my career] is pretty much closed if I don’t come out and perform. I have to go out looking at it that way. Keep that door open any way we can."

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