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November 9, 2011, 11:56 am

Energy Forecast: Fracking in China, Nuclear Uncertain, CO2 Up

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

This year’s World Energy Outlook report has been published by the International Energy Agency, and says wealthy and industrializing countries are stuck on policies that threaten to lock in “an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system.”

You can read worldwide coverage of the report here. Fiona Harvey of the Guardian has a piece on the report that focuses on the inexorable trajectories for carbon dioxide, driven by soaring energy demand in Asia.

A variety of graphs and slides can be reviewed here:

According to the report, Russia will long remain the world’s leading producer of natural gas, but exploitation of shale deposits in the United States, and increasingly in China, will greatly boost production in those countries (which will be in second and third place for gas production in 2035).

Last month, in an interview with James Kanter of The Times and International Herald Tribune, the new head of the energy agency, Maria van der Hoeven, discussed one point made in the report today — that concerns raised by the damage to the Fukushima Daiichi power plant could continue to dampen expansion of nuclear power and add to the challenge of avoiding a big accumulation of carbon dioxide, saying: “Such a reduction would certainly make it more difficult for the world to meet the goal of stabilizing the rise in temperature to 2 degrees Centigrade.”

Here’s the summary of the main points, released today by the agency: Read more…

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November 8, 2011, 5:30 pm

Close Encounters of the Rocky Kind

By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Asteroid 2005 YU55, photographed on Nov. 7, is passing Earth this evening at slightly less than the distance of the Moon's orbit.NASA/JPL-CaltechAsteroid 2005 YU55, photographed on Nov. 7, is passing Earth this evening at slightly less than the distance of the Moon’s orbit.

7:55 p.m. | Updated |
Tonight is a good time to track NASA’s @asteroidwatch Twitter account, which I’ve held out as a great example of how social media can help agencies, or individuals, track misinformation and spread solid information on important subjects.

At 6:28 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, Asteroid 2005 YU55, 1,300 feet across and traveling 8 miles per second, passed slightly closer to the Earth than the Moon’s orbit. It has passed safely before and scientists have calculated at least a couple of centuries out that, even with the slight changes that can occur in the orbits of such objects, this particular space rock won’t add to the planet’s pockmarks. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Asteroid and Comet Watch page has much more detail, and here’s a video explainer on the asteroid: Read more…

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November 8, 2011, 4:21 pm

Students Press Congress to Sustain Investment in Science

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

5:23 p.m. | Updated
A group of graduate students has posted a letter and video message to Congress aimed at sustaining federal investment in basic science in an era of cost-cutting and political paralysis and polarization. They are looking for other graduate students to sign on. The letter is at standwithscience.org. Here’s their YouTube callout:

There is a related Facebook page.

Andy Hargadon, a University of California, Davis, researcher who studies the roots of invention, once explained to me that doctoral and post-doctoral students are the “stem cells” of the science/innovation system. But the value of nurturing this component of the innovation pipeline seems hard for outsiders, including lawmakers, to absorb. (As evidence, note that President Obama didn’t get substantial support for his proposals for invigorating education related to energy sciences even when Democrats controlled both houses of Congress).

[Nov. 9, 10:05 a.m. | Update |

Johanna Wolfson, a Ph.D. student in chemistry at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and president of the MIT Science Policy Initiative, which launched this campaign, sent this note:

Grad students in science and engineering are the future of U.S. innovation and competitiveness. But Congress is sending us a message that our research may not be funded and that the U.S. innovation system -- which we're primed and ready to contribute toward -- is on shaky ground. Science and engineering research grows our economy, as history has shown time and again. Cutting this engine of growth is the absolute least productive way for the Congressional super committee to reduce the federal deficit in the coming years. So we're calling on all supporters of science to speak out before the committee's Nov. 23 deadline and keep us from undermining our own future.]

Read more…

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November 8, 2011, 1:53 pm

A Fracking Method With Fewer Water Woes?

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Here’s a quick review of developments related to the fast-expanding extraction of natural gas using hydraulic fracturing, otherwise known as fracking, that point to a route forward amid concerns about everything from earthquakes to water pollution.

As soon as I heard about the 5.6-magnitude earthquake amid a cluster of recent lesser tremors in Oklahoma, I figured the potential relationship of some earthquakes to drilling would emerge. There are hints that some fracking operations in Oklahoma and elsewhere have induced minor earthquakes, although there’s no apparent connection between human activities and the bigger Oklahoma quakes in recent days.

The clearest connection between drilling and significant seismic activity is not related to the fracturing of rock to liberate gas. It’s from instances where waste fluids — for example, the water used in fracking — are injected deep into the earth. In a piece for Oilprice.com, John C.K. Daly reviews the research, dating back many decades, on how deep-injection wells can trigger modest earthquakes.

So if you want to limit deep-well wastewater injection and also the risks of contaminating aquifers or surface water supplies from fracking, what do you do? Take the water out of the fracking process.

At a small scale so far, that future is on display in hundreds of gas projects in Canada and some states where liquefied propane (in gel form) is used to pressurize and fracture shale and then exits the well in gaseous form to be collected for reuse or other purposes.

The process, and the impediments to its wider adoption, are described in detail in “Cutting waste in gas drilling – Pioneering propane technology used to free natural gas from rocks, avoiding the pollution of vast amounts of water.” The must-read article is by Brian Nearing of the Albany Times Union and Anthony Brino of Inside Climate News.

Here’s a snippet, but I urge you to read the rest: Read more…

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November 7, 2011, 10:56 am

The Miracle of Murmuration

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

1:49 p.m. | Updated |
I’ve been lucky enough to witness lots of marvelous phenomena in the wild world, from newts in November to an owl print in fresh snow to a waterspout at sea, but I readily admit I’ve never witnessed what these canoeists in Ireland saw not long ago — murmurating starlings:

What have you witnessed on this living planet that takes your breath away?

1:49 p.m. | Postscript |
In a comment below, Chris Dudley noted that The Times ran a piece in 2007 on this phenomenon (in Rome).

Also, several readers complained about the music, which I (despite being a musician) also found unnecessary. There does seem to be a habit of doing this, as seen here: Read more…

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November 7, 2011, 5:33 am

Straight Talk on Rising Seas in a Warming World

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Joshua K. Willis of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory is deeply involved in efforts to clarify oceanic ups and downs using space-based and deep-diving instruments. I frequently reach out to him when people tussle over the data and analysis pointing to rising seas in a human-heated world.

This arena remains dogged by durable uncertainty on time scales relevant to policy debates even as the long-term picture of centuries of rising seas is clear. One persistent issue is the dynamics of ice sheets. Another is persistent questions about how much heat the seas absorb. Not long ago I caught Willis for a brief Skype interview that explores some important recent studies and assertions: Read more…

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November 4, 2011, 3:08 pm

A Student’s Call for a Learning Revolution

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Nov. 5, 12:44 p.m. | Updated
I was struck last week by a Huffington Post essay written by Nikhil Goyal, a 16-year-old junior from Syosset High School on Long Island who is clearly part of what I call “Generation E.” The piece, “It’s Time For a Learning Revolution,” was a student-eye-view of the need — and glaring opportunity — for innovating teaching (and learning) from the bottom up. (He’s writing a book on the subject.)

As I’ve written here before, finding and disseminating education methods that foster creative, collaborative and resilient learning and problem solving is a prime path toward fitting human aspirations on a finite planet. Nicholas Kristof’s recent column, “Occupy the Classroom,” explores relevant terrain. This approach is also particularly useful in the face of prolonged economic uncertainty.

Notably, the potential learning-by-doing role of American students and scholars in advancing human prospects in struggling regions came up today at a meeting organized by the United States Agency for International Development (which just celebrated its 50th anniversary) and hosted by the Woodrow Wilson Center. Alex Dehgan, the science and technology adviser to the agency’s administrator, said you’ll know we’re there “when we have students not asking what is your major, but what is your problem.”

Current classroom norms, which Goyal described as the “culture of fill in the bubble tests and drill-and-kill teaching methods,” aren’t a good fit in a complicated, connected, competitive world. He referred to the TED talk of Sir Ken Robinson on the 19th-century roots of our early-21st-century schools. [Nov. 5, 12:41 p.m. | Updated Chris Drew has a great story in The Times Education Life supplement on the difficulty factor, and other issues, diverting students from science concentrations in college.]

After I read Goyal’s piece, I got in touch via his @TalkPolitical Twitter account and invited him to weigh in here, in part hoping he’d also reflect on my related piece, “Breaking Things on a Path to Breakthroughs.” I also sent him a highly relevant, and fascinating, piece by Jonah Lehrer in The Wall Street Journal on “The Art of Failing Successfully” and the merits of rewarding effort more than outcomes. Here’s a repost of video of the bridge-breaking project, which I think illustrates the value of this approach beautifully:

Here’s his “Your Dot” piece: Read more…

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November 2, 2011, 3:49 pm

The World’s Condom, Electricity and Climate Divides

By ANDREW C. REVKIN
A chart showing glaring differences in access to electricity in rich and poor parts of the world.United Nations Development ProgramA chart showing glaring differences in access to electricity in rich and poor parts of the world.

Our fine Economix blog has a post up on the new Human Development Report from the United Nations (Twitter feed). The trends are mainly good in the word’s most struggling places — reprising findings from a year ago. But the report’s authors stress that human-driven climate change could easily derail progress in the world’s least developed places.

The findings build on the picture of a glaring climate divide on the planet that we described in a Times series in 2007. But they also point to divides on condom use and access to electricity, as well.

The table at right shows the glaring energy gap on this planet.

Another widespread unmet need is for family planning. At the bottom of this post I’ve appended another table from the report, showing that there are wide gaps not only between countries but within countries (the poorest of the poor having the least access to contraceptives).

Here’s the nut of the Economix post, by Rachel Nuwer: Read more…

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November 2, 2011, 11:48 am

More on Energy and Climate Paths for California and Beyond

By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Solar array in CaliforniaCalifornia Energy Commission. A parabolic solar-thermal trough like ones that would be used at a solar power plant planned for the Mojave Desert.

Building on my weekend “Reality Check on Ambitious Climate Targets,” here are two “Your Dot” views of energy and climate paths for California and the rest of the planet, one offered by Alan Nogee, an energy consultant who was until recently the leader of the Clean Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, and Thomas J. Crowley of the University of Edinburgh, a veteran of decades of climate research who here writes primarily as a resident of a place, Scotland, where energy prices are very high.

There’s more amplification coming soon from me, Nate Lewis, Jane Long and others on the California energy post, and on Joe Romm‘s “Charlie Sheen” charge Monday night related to that post (I’m still hampered by what’s now a four-day power and Web disruption from the clash of late foliage and early snow on Saturday).

After reading the piece, Crowley sent a note under the title “Tales of Brave Ulysses” (as per Cream), alluding in part to an essay he wrote for The Guardian in 2007: “In the short term, there’ll be no major action against climate change; to tackle global warming we need a shift in attitudes unprecedented in peace time.”  Here’s his new, and downbeat, line of thinking: Read more…

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November 1, 2011, 1:57 pm

Book Report: Who Speaks for the Climate?

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Robert J. Brulle, a sociologist at Drexel University, has for years been been a valuable guide for me to the large, and largely under-appreciated, body of behavioral research illuminating why it’s so hard to gain traction on the super wicked problem of human-driven climate change.

Below Brulle offers a Dot Earth “Book Report”* on “Who Speaks for Climate? Making Sense of Media Reporting on Climate Change,” by Maxwell T. Boykoff of the University of Colorado.

Here’s a summary of the book’s core themes that Boykoff gave at the Oxford Martin School of Oxford University last summer:

Here’s Robert Brulle’s summary of the book:

Read more…

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About Dot Earth

Andrew C. Revkin on Climate Change

By 2050 or so, the human population is expected to reach nine billion, essentially adding two Chinas to the number of people alive today. Those billions will be seeking food, water and other resources on a planet where, scientists say, humans are already shaping climate and the web of life. In Dot Earth, which recently moved from the news side of The Times to the Opinion section, Andrew C. Revkin examines efforts to balance human affairs with the planet’s limits. Conceived in part with support from a John Simon Guggenheim Fellowship, Dot Earth tracks relevant developments from suburbia to Siberia. The blog is an interactive exploration of trends and ideas with readers and experts.

What I'm Reading

On the Dot

Energy
New Options Needed

wind powerAccess to cheap energy underpins modern societies. Finding enough to fuel industrialized economies and pull developing countries out of poverty without overheating the climate is a central challenge of the 21st century.

Climate
The Arctic in Transition

arctic meltEnshrined in history as an untouchable frontier, the Arctic is being transformed by significant warming, a rising thirst for oil and gas, and international tussles over shipping routes and seabed resources.

Society
Slow Drips, Hard Knocks

water troubles Human advancement can be aided by curbing everyday losses like the millions of avoidable deaths from indoor smoke and tainted water, and by increasing resilience in the face of predictable calamities like earthquakes and drought.

Biology
Life, Wild and Managed

wildlifeEarth’s veneer of millions of plant and animal species is a vital resource that will need careful tending as human populations and their demands for land, protein and fuels grow.

Slide Show

pollution
A Planet in Flux

Andrew C. Revkin began exploring the human impact on the environment nearly 30 years ago. An early stop was Papeete, Tahiti. This narrated slide show describes his extensive travels.

Video

revking at the north pole
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Many of the videos featured here can be found on Andrew Revkin’s channel on YouTube. Recent reader favorites:

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