The storms yesterday certainly lived up to their advanced billing with street flooding reported all the way from Galveston Island north to Houston. Galveston received its heaviest rainfall since October and damage was reported from a possible rare January tornado in the Texas City area.


Cars drive through high water on 39th Street in Galveston.

Rainfall totals in Galveston ranged from 2.08" at Scholes Field on the West End to 2.15" closer to the downtown area. Ironically, the 2.08" downpour was not the heaviest rain for the date, as a 2.72" total in 1991 retains that record. Further north, rainfall amounts ranged from 2.37" in Friendswood to 2.82" just northwest of League City and a whopping 5.18" total at the National Weather Service Office in League City/Dickinson.

The scattered damage reported across the County may have been from straight-line winds rather than tornadoes, though this remains to be confirmed at this time. Tornadoes are very rare in the area during January and I could find no reports of confirmed tornadoes during the month locally. A similar event did occur on January 29, 1997 when a strong winds with thunderstorms broke tree limbs in Santa Fe and caused damage along Harborside Drive in Galveston.

Generally, January is one of the months with the fewest tornadoes nationwide, though there have been some destructive outbreaks during the month, even in such unlikely places as Santa Barbara, California, Wisconsin and New York State.

With the surface and upper-lows moving out of the state, the stage is set for some chilly temperatures later this week, with the mercury expected to dip into the 30's over the County by Thursday and Friday mornings.

Below are some links to articles about tornadoes and January tornadoes:

Tornado Climatology

New York Tornado, January, 1872

Santa Barbara Tornado

January, 2008 Tornado Outbreak

The National Weather Service Office in League City/Dickinson has issued a number of warnings for southeast Texas and Galveston County as thunderstorms continue to develop and move across the region. A Tornado Warning was issued until noon today for portions of Brazoria and Galveston counties (see link below) and a number of severe weather and flash flood warnings were placed in effect over the area as a large system moves east through Texas.

Below are links to the Texas radar and to the local warnings:

Tornado Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Flash Flood Warning

Texas Radar Loop

Considering that 2011 was the fifth driest year ever in Galveston and that long-range forecast are suggesting more dry weather for 2012, I suspect that many people will welcome the fact that we may see the first significant rains this year by late Sunday and Monday.

The culprits in this situation will be a deep mid to upper-level low that will drop south into Texas by Sunday and a cold front that will stall over the state. This, combined with increasing Gulf moisture, should provide the impetus for widespread moderate to heavy rains over much of Texas, including the Galveston area.

To begin with, a weak upper-level disturbance, should bring some showers to coastal regions of the County this morning. This precipitation should move out of the area later today, but fog may develop along the coast late tonight and on Saturday as warm, moist air flows over the cooler waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Finally, widespread rains should begin in earnest overnight Sunday into Monday. Early forecast suggest that an inch or two of rain is not out of the question before the system moves off to the east.

In other words, we have all the ingredients for our first real wet spell of 2012.

Below are a few links to the weather outlook late this weekend into early next week:

Precipitation Outlook for Late Sunday

Precipitation Outlook for Early Next Week

Upper-level Forecast Map

Surface Forecast Map

Texas Radar Loop

The weather for 2011 has now been entered into the record books. As such, it will be remembered as a very unusual year for weather with extreme drought, a very cold winter and the the hottest summer ever for Galveston.

Despite a wet December, 2011 still qualified as the 5th driest year ever for Galveston. It's 22.95" rainfall total for the year was 27.81" below the 30-year average of 50.76". This dearth of precipitation is only exceeded by the 21.40" rainfall total for 1948, the 21.43" in 1917, the 21.84" yearly total for 1956 and the 22.29" in 1954. The paltry 2.65" of rain received between April 1 through September 30 of this year is the second driest five-months ever in Galveston (with records going back to 1871), surpassed only by the period, July 1 to November 30, 1924 with its 2.08" five-month total rainfall.

2011 brought a cold January and February. Those two months had 9 days with freezing temperatures in Galveston, the most for the Island since 1989. On the mainland, residents of the League City area shivered through 14 days with freezing temperatures during those two months.

By contrast, 2011 with its 72.4 degree annual average will go into the record books as the second warmest year ever in Galveston, exceeded only by 2006 with its 72.6 degree annual average. Summer, 2011 was the hottest on record in Galveston County, with June and August being the hottest ever and July ranking as the second hottest ever. The 103 days with temperatures of 90 degrees or higher was the most ever recorded in Galveston, surpassing the 99 days registered in 2005. A 100 degree reading on August 27 was the first time the mercury reached or exceeded the century mark on the Island since September, 2000. Meanwhile, residents of League City sweltered through a summer with 13 days at or above the 100 degree

What will the coming year bring? The fact is nobody knows for sure. But, extended forecasts do suggest a continuation of drier and warmer than normal conditions through at least the first half of the coming year. The culprit is a lingering La Niña condition with tends to produce drought conditions over the southern U.S. There are some hints that the La Niña may weaken or disappear during the second half of the year, but that is uncertain at this time. What does seem certain is that we are unlikely to get much drought relief through at least the first half of 2012.

Below are a few links related to this blog:

January-March Weather Outlook

April-June Weather Outlook

July-September Weather

October-December Weather

El Nino-La Nina Outlook

EBSO Forecasts

Although we have one more day before we say goodbye to December and to 2011, it is not too soon to state that December, 2011 has been a very good month weather-wise. This is especially gratifying, given the generally poor weather for the year overall. For one, this December will go in the record books as the only month this year with above-normal precipitation, with 4.41" reported through December 30. This makes it the first month since November, 2010 to have more rain than average.

Even more important, rains were spread out evenly through the month. Nine days received measurable precipitation, the most since January, 2011, which also saw nine days with measurable rainfall. This continued a trend that appeared in November, which had eight days with rainfall of at least 0.01" or more. Considering that six months this year had less than five days with measurable precipitation, this was a welcome trend indeed.

A similar pattern was found at inland locations around the County with the National Weather Service Site at League City, receiving measurable rainfall on ten days this month, for a total of 4.00" overall.

Temperatures this December were fairly good as well, by most standards. Extremely cold temperatures were missing, though there was enough chilly days to please those who like to see some winter-like weather. As it stands, both Galveston and League City will finish the month with near normal, though slightly below, temperatures. Galveston did not report a freeze this month with the lowest temperature being a 33 degree reading on December 7. League City saw three light freezes, with a 28 degree low being reported on December 7. By way of contrast, League City had five freezing days in December, 2010.

Looking ahead, near normal temperatures are expected through mid-January. Although some fairly cold air is now building over Alaska with temperatures dipping into the -35 to -45 degree range, the models do not seem inclined to send this frigid air this way anytime soon. The Climate Prediction Center still projects a warmer than normal January for our area, but I would warn that the return of a more amplified upper-level pattern could open the door for some of that Arctic air.

At any rate, I am grateful for the wet, cool weather we've had this December and hope that January will confound those who are calling for a dry month!

Below are links to the extended forecasts for the U.S.:

January Weather Outlook

6-10 Day Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook

January-March Weather Outlook

An unfamiliar sight appeared across southeast Texas this morning. That unfamiliar light is the sky is the morning sun, a view that has been absent as of late.

The good news is that the clouds have moved away after leaving fairly abundant amounts of rainfall across Galveston County and that the sun is here to stay for awhile. And even better news may be that mild temperatures will return to the area by late in the week.

While it appears that sunny to partly cloudy skies will prevail for much of this week, the picture becomes a little more uncertain as we end the week and move into New Year's weekend. Warm, moist air will begin to return to our area as the week ends. This could bring a return of some cloudiness, a slight chance of rain and even some fog back to the area. Right now, it appears that New Year's Eve will be mild with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a slight chance of rain or fog.

Looking even further ahead, the models are divided at this time with one well-respected model keeping the mild conditions around for New Years Day and beyond and another suggesting that a surge of fairly cold air will reach southeast Texas by the beginning of the New Year. Guess we'll have to wait and see which model proves to be superior in this case.

At any rate, I intend to walk my dogs and enjoy the sunny weather!

Below are a couple of links to the weather outlook for New Year's Eve:

Maximum Temperature Forecast for New Year's

New Year's Eve Surface Forecast Map

New Year's Eve Upper-level Forecast Map

A developing winter storm will bring rain, chilly temperatures and rough seas to the upper-Texas coast, but no snow. While many of the same ingredients are in place as we saw in 2004, temperatures both aloft and at the surface are not cold enough to produce snow in our area. Rainfall amounts from 1/4 to 1 inch will be widespread throughout the area with isolated amounts up to 2 inches.

The main culprits will be an upper-level low tracking east from southern New Mexico and West Texas and a surface low that should develop east of Brownsville and track northeast across the western Gulf of Mexico.

A small craft advisory has been issued for the waters offshore of Galveston as steady winds of 15-25 mph and wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be common over the coming 12-18 hours.

We should see improving weather on Monday into the middle of the week as drier air works into the area from the west.

Until then, it sounds like ideal weather to sit at home by the Christmas tree or fire with friends and family!

Below are links to the latest weather outlooks:

Small Craft Advisory

6-hour Surface Forecast Map

Texas Radar Loop

5-Day Rainfall Outlook