DAN SENOR, foreign-policy adviser to Romney and traveling adviser to Paul Ryan, to Charlie Rose and Norah O'Donnell, on CBS's "This Morning: "It’s been over a year since the president said [Syrian president] Bashar Assad must go. ... Bashar Assad is still in power. America looks IMPOTENTin the region.” --Kevin Robillard

PEGGY NOONAN CALLS FOR AN INTERVENTION -- Wall Street Journal “Declarations” column (will run in Saturday’s paper), “Romney Needs a New CEO: How to save a listing campaign, the Baker Way”: “There is more than a month between the first debate and the voting: That's enough time for a healthy spiral to begin. But: The Romney campaign has to get turned around. This week I called it incompetent, but only because I was being polite. I really meant ‘rolling calamity.’ … There were wistful notes from the Republicans who'd helped run previous campaigns, most of whom could be characterized as serious, moderate conservatives, all of whom want to see Mr. Romney win  … Some, unbidden, brought up the name James A. Baker III, who ran Ronald Reagan's campaign in 1984 (megalandslide—those were the days) and George H.W. Bush's in 1988 (landslide.) …

“Twice in my life I've seen men so respected within their organizations that people couldn't call them by their first names. That would be Mr. Paley, the buccaneer and visionary who invented CBS, and Mr. Baker, who ran things that are by nature chaotic and messy—campaigns and White Houses—with wisdom, focus, efficiency, determination and discipline. And he did it while being attacked every day from left, right and center—and that was in the Reagan White House, never mind outside, which was a constant war zone.

“Mr. Baker's central insight: The candidate can't run the show. He can't be the CEO of the campaign … The candidate is out there every day standing for things, fighting for a hearing, trying to get the American people to listen, agree and follow. That's where his energies go. … The candidate cannot oversee strategy, statements, speechwriting, ads. He shouldn't be debating what statistic to put on slide four of the Powerpoint presentation. He has to learn to trust others—many others.

“Mr. Baker broke up power centers while at the same time establishing clear lines of authority—and responsibility. … /He delegated, and only the gifted were welcome: Bob Teeter, Dick Darman, Roger Ailes, Marlin Fitzwater. … A campaign is a communal exercise. It isn't about individual entrepreneurs. It's people pitching in together … Mitt Romney needs to get his head screwed on right in this area.” http://on.wsj.com/OLHFhV

JON STEWART TO BILL CLINTON: “So, give any good speeches lately?”

SENTENCE DU JOUR – ABC’s Jonathan Karl: “At one recent Texas fundraiser, a donor told Romney, ‘I am happy to write a check, but why are you here? Shouldn't you be in Ohio?’”

RNC GRAPHIC, “Change Changed” http://bit.ly/Uxjf13

TWITTER MUST-FOLLOWS: Obama campaign communications director Brent Colburn, @cbrentcolburn. William & Mary guy; worked for Obama ’08 in Michigan, then joined administration, running comms at FEMA, followed by Homeland Security.

“MORNING JOE” celebrates its fifth anniversary. FLASHBACK: “New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg joins Willie, Mika, MSNBC president Phil Griffin and Joe to cut the ribbon on the new set of Morning Joe at 30 Rock in 2007.” http://on.msnbc.com/QrfUwH

--Scarborough: “The news media [are] not going to allow Mitt Romney to lie on the mat between [now] and November. You’re going to see a swing back. … If Mitt Romney can take one punch after another from his own fist … and this thing ties back up, you're gonna have a lot of clenched people in the Obama campaign. Because they're going to go: ‘God, this guy keeps blowing himself up, and we can't get rid of him.’ …. He still has the opportunity to pull this out.”

--Mike Barnicle: “I can’t recall a candidate having a worse week … than Mitt Romney.”

--Mika Brzezinski: “I think it’s TWO weeks.”

GAME CHANGE? --WashPost A6, “Romney campaign’s cash flow hits a snag,” by Dan Eggen: “The numbers signal a financial shift away from the Republicans after a summer of Democratic hand-wringing over fundraising.” http://wapo.st/POVg90

--“Obama flips money script on Mitt,” by Kenneth P. Vogel and Dave Levinthal, with Tarini Parti: “Obama … looks to have an edge, thanks to an awakening donor base, aggressive summer spending on ads and ground game, and a Romney hoarding strategy that left him with plenty of cash in the bank, but not much to show for it. Through the end of August, Romney’s campaign and the party committees and super PAC supporting it had raised $736 million, compared to $774 million raised by Obama’s campaign and its party and super PAC allies … Team Obama has the momentum at the right time. Big Democratic donors are rallying to the Priorities USA Action super PAC, which … raised $10.1 million last month — its best month ever. And overall, for the first time in months, Obama’s campaign, the Democratic National Committee and the joint DNC-Obama Victory Fund outraised Romney’s campaign, the Republican National Committee and Romney Victory – $114 million to $111.6 million.

“The shifting fortunes mark yet another reversal of a conventional wisdom … in the first presidential campaign of the Citizens United era. First, the thinking was that Obama’s massive base of small donors would make the president the first $1-billion candidate and would simply overwhelm Romney. Then, as Obama struggled to fire up his base to the fever pitch of 2008 and Romney and his outside allies began reaping the fruits of a robust big donor operation, it appeared the Obama era of fundraising preeminence may have passed. But, as the contours of the 2012 cash race harden, Obama and his allies have been able to adapt to some of the big-donor-driven aspects of fundraising which they purport to abhor, while emphasizing new techniques, such as text message donations, to reach small donors.

“Romney … has seen his small donor fundraising wane, while the super PAC devoted to him, Restore Our Future, in August reeled in fewer new big fish. Romney’s selection of Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate was expected to energize small donors, but that wasn’t evident in August. … Perhaps more important than the numbers themselves, Obama and his allies appear to have gotten more bang for their buck, building a robust get-out-the-vote operation that some conservatives worry out-classes their own, while unleashing a barrage of negative ads that left Romney struggling to shake Democrats’ portrayal of him as a cold-hearted businessman who can’t identify with the average voter’s struggles. ‘We’re winning the election in large measure because we’ve framed it,’ Priorities USA strategist Paul Begala told POLITICO this month.

“Priorities’ $10.1-million August was the first time it outraised Restore Our Future, and it was fueled partly by new donors, including billionaire hedge fund manager Jim Simons, who gave $2 million and hosted a fundraising brunch in Charlotte for the Democratic super PACs featuring pitches by Rahm Emanuel and Obama campaign manager Jim Messina. Another new Priorities donor who has major giving potential is Baltimore lawyer Peter Angelos, majority owner of the surging Baltimore Orioles baseball team. … Romney’s campaign … paid out over $200,000 in bonuses to some senior officials.” http://politi.co/PuigvP

--Obama campaign’s Katie Hogan emails reporters: “Due to the incredible growth in grassroots donors that we have seen to our campaign, Obama for America just filed the largest FEC report by almost double this election cycle. We are proud that our report is about 170,000 pages long in August, up from 90,000 pages in July. Thanks to our over 3 million donors.”

--RNC Chair Reince Priebus (@Reince): “NEWSFLASH - Cash On Hand RNC - 76.5 mill DNC - 7.1 mill  … More August Facts: DNC spent 21.9M and RNC spent 47.8M; RNC raised 35.6M and DNC raised 13.6M; Final Cash on Hand RNC 76.5M - DNC 7.1M”

ROMNEY BONUSES -- WashPost’s Dan Eggen (online only): “Romney’s campaign handed out more than $200,000 in bonuses last month to senior staffers, according to … records filed Thursday. Richard Beeson, Romney’s national political director, received a $37,500 payment on Aug. 31 … [A]t least six other top staffers each received $25,000 bonuses on the same date: campaign manager Matt Rhoades, general counsel Kathryn Biber, policy advisor Lanhee Chen, communications director Gail Gitcho, digital director Zach Moffatt and advisor Gabriel Schoenfeld.” http://wapo.st/P5t6Y3

--A Romney aide emails Playbook: “These were primary win bonuses pursuant to employment agreements paid after the convention.”

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EMAILS WE DIDN’T OPEN: “Very important to you! is not spam”

CORRECTION: On Tuesday, Mitt Romney (9 a.m.) and President Obama (noon) will address separate sessions at the Clinton Global Initiative. After Obama speaks, TIME managaing editor Rick Stengel will moderate a session on "Working Capital: Creating Value for Business and Society."

BOB WOODWARD debuts at #2 on N.Y. Times nonfiction bestseller list, Sept. 30: “THE PRICE OF POLITICS, by Bob Woodward. (Simon & Schuster, $30.) Inside the debt-ceiling negot[i]ations of 2011 with the Washington Post journalist.” #1 for second week in a row: “NO EASY DAY, by Mark Owen with Kevin Maurer. (Dutton, $26.95.) An account by a former member of the Navy SEALs, written pseudonymously, of the mission that killed bin Laden.”

THE JUICE: T-PAW TO D.C. – “The Financial Services Roundtable … named former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty as its new President and Chief Executive Officer, effective November 1, 2012. Pawlenty will take over for long-time CEO Steve Bartlett who announced his retirement earlier this year. … [Pawlenty said:] ‘I realize there is still work to be done to continue to earn customers’ confidence. … I look forward to working closely with decision makers from both parties on issues related to our nation’s banks, insurance companies and investment firms so that they can continue to provide fuel for America's economic engine.’ … The Financial Services Roundtable is a bipartisan organization. As a consequence, Gov. Pawlenty will step down as a national co-chair of the Romney for President campaign.”

--Mitt Romney: “Tim Pawlenty is a dear friend. He’s brought energy, intelligence and tireless dedication to every enterprise in which he’s ever been engaged, and that certainly includes my presidential campaign. While I regret he cannot continue as co-chair of my campaign, his new position advancing the integrity of our financial system is vital to the future of our country.”

MOOD MUSIC: “Dems surge in key Senate campaigns,” by John Bresnahan, Manu Raju and David Catanese: “Democratic candidates in Virginia, Massachusetts and Wisconsin are on the rise after navigating a summer of challenges, and benefiting from Obama’s growing strength in all three states. In Florida and Ohio, Democratic incumbents have so far withstood a tidal wave of spending by conservative super PACs and outside groups. Senate Democrats said … stumbles by Republican Senate candidates, infighting between the tea party movement and establishment wings of the GOP and effective Democratic ads have all helped their cause. … Democrats came into the cycle defending 23 seats, versus only 10 for Republicans. … Texas Sen. John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said … there is plenty of time for the party to turn things around in strong GOP states like North Dakota and Montana — and Republicans are in the hunt in Connecticut …

“After no shortage of handwringing over Elizabeth Warren’s campaign, the Massachusetts Democrat has overtaken Brown in four …  polls. … In Wisconsin, liberal Rep. Tammy Baldwin, who trailed Tommy Thompson in five straight August polls, has now vaulted ahead of him in several surveys. … Even in Virginia — the race that has cemented itself as the most consistently competitive in the country — daylight has started to emerge for Democrats. … Tim Kaine, the former governor and onetime head of the Democratic National Committee, has carved out a lead against former Sen. George Allen. … In Ohio and Florida, meanwhile, Democratic incumbents Sherrod Brown and Bill Nelson have benefited from Obama’s recent gains.” http://bit.ly/VjC73c

--Boston Globe 4-col. lead, “Brown, Warren hit hard on taxes and allegiances: In first debate, senator assails rival’s character, gets blasts at his record” http://bo.st/OIJIZW

COULD REPUBLICANS LOSE THE HOUSE? Very unlikely. Arguing otherwise is Princeton neuroscience Professor Sam Wang, who manages the “Princeton Election Consortium” blog and writes in a post titled “Republicans at risk of losing the House?”: “[T]he eventual national … popular vote share is strongly predictive of the corresponding margin of House seats. … [A] national win of D+1.3% is required for the House to change hands. … The main issue with this analysis is that it does not use district-level data. [Duh!] … Assume a +/-4% opinion shift between now and November, and this leads to … a Democratic takeover probability of 74%, approximately three out of four.” http://bit.ly/NG9nRm

PLAYBOOK FACTS OF LIFE: Jonathan Allen and Jake Sherman say that taking redistricting into account, Dems would need to net 30-40 seats for control. Dems seem more likely than Rs to pick up seats, but our reporting suggests that more than a dozen would be a surprise. A good Election Night for the GOP would net anywhere from 0 to 8 seats.

--Jon explains why the figure of 25 seats to flip understates reality: “It's a bigger universe because Democrats will lose some of their existing seats. Dan Boren's seat in Oklahoma is a good example of the type of seat that is gone, baby, gone for Dems. He's the only one who could hold it and he's retiring. Heath Shuler's seat in western North Carolina is another one like Boren's. Then there are toss-up races, some of which, presumably, will go Republican. Each time the Republicans take a seat from the Democrats, the Democrats have to pick up two to gain one. And there are new seats, essentially transferred from one state to another in reapportionment. Altogether, the odds-makers seem to be in agreement that Dems have to find three dozen or more GOP seats to win in order to be in range for the majority.”

THE MOMENT -- “Newly aggressive Romney tries another reset for campaign … Romney pounces on Obama 'insider' comment,” by Reuters’ Margaret Chadbourn in Miami and Steve Holland in Sarasota: “Taking a more aggressive tack after a series of reversals, Republican presidential challenger Mitt Romney accused President Obama on Thursday of ‘surrendering in his attempt to change up Washington. A comment that Obama made in an interview with the Spanish-language television network Univision in Florida gave Romney an opening to charge that the president is ineffective.  Obama told Univision his 2010 U.S. healthcare overhaul was a result of Americans exerting pressure on Washington for action. ‘You can't change Washington from the inside, you can only change Washington from the outside,’ he said. ‘That's how the big accomplishments like healthcare got done, because we mobilized the American people to speak out.’

“An animated Romney quickly pounced on the remark as evidence that Obama cannot break the political gridlock … ‘The president today threw in the white flag of surrender again. He said he can't change Washington from the inside, he can only change it from outside. Well, we're going to give him that chance in November. He's going outside,’ he said at a Sarasota rally.

--Drudge banner, “FIRST SERIOUS INTERVIEW: PRESSED ON FAILURES BY UNIVISION”

POLLS DU JOUR:

--WSJ p. 1, “Headwinds For Romney in Latest Poll Results” – WSJ/NBC News/Marist – Colo.: Obama 50, Romney 45 … Iowa: Obama 50, Romney 42 … Wis.: Obama 50, Romney 45

--USA Today 2-col. lead for three-day-shelf-life weekend edition: “Obama tops Romney on Medicare [USA Today/Gallup, swing states]: President has voters’ trust, but pessimism looms.”

THE BIG PICTURE – “World no longer swoons for Obama,” by Josh Gerstein: “[T]he surge in good feeling toward the U.S. that he ushered in has dimmed in much of the world. And evidence is scant that his popularity has advanced U.S. interests with America’s allies or its adversaries in a tangible way. Obama aides say the frightening images from the Middle East and elsewhere don’t tell the whole story. … Obama supporters also say the anti-American protests … have been modest in size compared with … the Arab Spring democracy movement. But for conservatives, it’s a ‘told you so’ moment  [undermining] the notion that Obama could remake America’s image through the power of his personality …

“Obama campaign foreign policy adviser Colin Kahl told POLITICO the president has done ‘pretty well’ carrying out his foreign policy promises to mend America’s relationships … He noted that a Pew Global Attitudes Project poll taken earlier this year shows U.S. approval ratings 20 [points] higher in Europe than during the final year of the Bush administration…. The peak of Obama fever globally may have come in October 2009, when the president was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.” http://politi.co/Sb1DYh

SPORTS BLINK -- NATS CLINCH – WashPost photo refer, atop A1, “Smile, Washington! After 79 years, you’re in the playoffs.”

--Adam Kilgore: “The scoreboard at Nationals Park flashed ‘NATS CLINCH’ in huge, white block letters. … Red and white fireworks exploded into the starless sky, and smoke hovered over the field as the players pulled on red shirts and gray hats emblazoned with words once foreign to the nation’s capital: ‘Playoffs’ and ‘postseason.’ The Nationals’ 4-1 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers clinched Washington’s first baseball postseason in 79 years [at] 10:02 p.m. …

“The Nationals toasted and sipped the champagne. They did not spray it. The victory had guaranteed only a wild-card berth, a one-game play-in. … The victory lowered the Nationals’ magic number to clinch the National League East to eight with 13 games remaining, and it increased their lead to 5½ games over the idle Atlanta Braves. They also stayed a half-game ahead of the Cincinnati Reds, who won Thursday afternoon, for the best overall record in the majors.” http://wapo.st/OLlXL1

BIRTHDAYS: Ashley Tate-Gilmore, director of the White House Travel Office, is 29. Her friends have reserved a karaoke room for tonight. (Stand by for PSY!) ... Brianna Keilar of CNN (hat tip: Jamie) … Maggie Dougherty of Sen. Rubio's office, a valuable member of the Swing State Sluggers softball team (cap tip: Lauren Pardo) ... Kiki Ryan is 30. Celebrating in Palm Springs, picking out a wedding venue with Burger (h/ts Christine Delargy, Burger) …  ConwayStrategic's Lydia Stuckey ... Army Times' Rachel Barth ... James Woolsey ... Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear ... Larry Hagman is 81 ... Jerry Bruckheimer is 69 ... Stephen King is 65 ... Bill Murray is 62 ... former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is 55 ... Cecil Fielder is 49 ... Faith Hill is 45 ... Ricki Lake is 44 (h/ts AP)

BIRTHDAY TOMORROW: Mike Rossetti (hat tip: Olivia Petersen)

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