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More frontiers in dynamic pricing: New York parking

June 19, 2012

Lynne Kiesling

Felix Salmon has a very nice microeconomic analysis of a proposal for New York to lease out its parking meters and facilities to a concessionaire, with a contingent contract based on the lessee’s implementation of dynamic pricing. A sample of what makes the analysis good:

The masters of variable pricing, of course, are the airlines, and while people are often resentful that they paid five times more for their ticket than the person sitting next to them did, the fact is that they would be much more resentful if they regularly tried to buy air tickets and found that all the flights were sold out. And conversely, of course, the airlines would lose even more money if they regularly wound up flying half-empty planes. Without variable pricing, one or the other would certainly happen.

In New York, as we’ve seen, Broadway is great at variable pricing, while the Yankees and the Metropolitan Opera are still in the pricing dark ages. But there’s one much more important area of New York life which is in desperate need of variable pricing: on-street parking.

San Francisco recently introduced variable pricing for on-street parking, and it’s an idea which ought to have been implemented in New York years ago. The basic idea is incredibly simple: you just price parking meters so that there’s always one empty parking spot on every block. The effect is electric, for two reasons. Firstly, drivers no longer have to pad their journeys by some unknowable amount of time to account for the time spent looking for a spot. And secondly, the whole city speeds up, since a huge proportion of congestion is caused by cars driving around in circles, looking for one of those precious spots.

He has more to say about municipal budgeting and how this transaction would help, so do go read the rest, and watch his video too.

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Experimentation, Jim Manzi, and regulation/deregulation

June 19, 2012

Lynne Kiesling

Think consciously about a decision you contemplated recently. As you were weighing your options, how much did you really know that you could bring to bear, definitively, on your decision? Was the outcome pre-determined, or was it unknown to you? For most of the decision-making situations we confront regularly, we don’t have full information about all of the inputs, causal factors, and consequent outcomes. Whether it’s due to costly information, imperfect foresight, the substantial role of tacit knowledge, the inability to predict the actions of others, or other cognitive or environmental factors, our empirical knowledge has significant limits. And yet we make decisions ranging from the color of socks to wear today to whether or not to bail out Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers. But we do so despite these significant limits of our empirical knowledge.

We build, test, and apply models to try to reduce this knowledge constraint. Models hypothesize causal relationships, and in social science we test those models largely using quantitative data and statistical tests. But when we build formal models, we make simplifying assumptions to make sure that the model is mathematically tractable, and we test those models for causality using incomplete data because we can’t capture or quantify all potentially causal factors. Sometimes these simplifying assumptions and omitted variables are innocuous, but then how useful will such models be in helping us to understand and predict outcomes in complex systems? Complex systems are characterized by interdependence and interaction among decisions of agents in ways that are non-deterministic, and specific outcomes in complex systems are typically not predictable (although analyses of complex phenomena like networks can reveal patterns of interactions or patterns of outcomes).

One person who’s been thinking carefully through these questions is Jim Manzi, whose new book Uncontrolled: The Surprising Payoff of Trial-and-Error for Business, Politics, and Society is generating a lot of discussion (and is on my summer reading list). On EconTalk this week he and Russ Roberts talked about the ideas in the book, and their implications for “business, politics, and society”. Russ summarizes the books focus as

Manzi argues that unlike science, which can produce useful results using controlled experiments, social science typically involves complex systems where system-wide experiments are rare and statistical tools are limited in their ability to isolate causal relations. Because of the complexity of social environments, even narrow experiments are unlikely to have the wide application that can be found in the laws uncovered by experiments in the physical sciences. Manzi advocates a trial-and-error approach using randomized field trials to verify the usefulness of many policy proposals. And he argues for humility and lowered expectations when it comes to understanding causal effects in social settings related to public policy.

Experimentation in complex social environments is a theme on which I am writing this summer, with application to competition and deregulation in retail electricity markets. Manzi’s ideas certainly flesh out the argument for experimentation as an approach to implementing institutional change that can identify unintended consequences and head costly design choices off at the pass before they become costly or disruptive. I made similar arguments in an article in Electricity Journal in 2005 for using economic experiments to test electricity policy institutional designs, and Mike and I discussed those issues here and here. In broad brushstroke, traditional cost-based economic regulation typically stifles experimentation, because to implement it the regulator has to define the characteristics of the product, define the boundaries of the market, and erect a legal entry barrier to create a monopoly in that market. Experimentation occurs predominantly through entry, by product differentiation that consequently changes the market boundaries. To the extent that experimentation does occur in regulated industries, it’s very project-based, with preferred vendor partners and strict limits on what the regulated firm can and cannot do. So even when regulation doesn’t stifle experimentation, it does narrow and truncate it.

Recently Manzi wrote some guest posts at Megan McArdle’s blog at The Atlantic, including this one summarizing his book and providing an interesting case study to illustrate it. His summary of the book’s ideas is relevant and worth considering:

  1. Nonexperimental social science currently is not capable of making useful, reliable, and nonobvious predictions for the effects of most proposed policy interventions.
  2. Social science very likely can improve its practical utility by conducting many more experiments, and should do so.
  3. Even with such improvement, it will not be able to adjudicate most important policy debates.
  4. Recognition of this uncertainty calls for a heavy reliance on unstructured trial-and-error progress.
  5. The limits to the use of trial and error are established predominantly by the need for strategy and long-term vision.

That post is rich with ideas, and I suspect Mike and I will want to pursue them here as we delve into the book.

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“Free Market Fairness” and self-authorship

June 14, 2012

Lynne Kiesling

[NOTE: The following is an economist's musings about philosophy, so if my philosopher friends can flesh out my argument and identify errors I'd be grateful. Also, this post is meant for you if you are interested in electricity regulation, so don't just mark it as read because it's philosophy ;-) ! --LK]

Although I have not yet finished John Tomasi’s Free Market Fairness, I am very much enjoying the conversation about it in progress at the symposium on it at Bleeding Heart Libertarians. John’s project is laudable — rediscover and synthesize common ethical ground between the two dominant branches of classical liberal thought. Roughly speaking, the bifurcation into what John labels “libertarianism” and “high liberalism” arose out of John Stuart Mill’s argument for the treatment of economic liberty as less essential than other civil liberties. Mill’s argument is that “… in the sphere of liberty are activities that primarily concern only the individual, …” (Tomasi p. 29), while the other sphere, that of coercion, addresses activities that affect other people. Mill categorizes exchange and commerce as inherently social due to its “you need two to tango” essence, and thus places it in the realm of coercion and not of liberty. More substantively, as John goes on to explore, Mill did not think that exchange and commerce could “contribute to individuality” (Tomasi p. 30) or to the moral foundations of personhood in the way that other civil liberties do, such as speech, assembly, and so on.

Thus the two branches of thought bifurcate from the classical liberalism tree trunk: modern libertarianism, which prioritizes property rights and economic liberty as foundational to all other civil liberties (e.g., Rothbard), and high liberalism, which picks up Mill’s moral demotion of economic liberty and builds upon it to justify a substantial government apparatus for regulation and intervention in the private economic decisions of individuals, with the stated objective of designing a social system that will generate benefit particularly for the least advantaged in society (Rawls’ operationalization of the maximin principle). John’s book probes ways to find commonalities in these two branches. In part his argument is a reinvigoration of the original tree trunk — classical liberalism, with which in the 20th century (i.e., after the bifurcation) he identifies Hayek. Classical liberalism neither prioritizes nor demotes economic liberty, embodying the principle that there is only liberty, and that its manifestation in various aspects of human action and interaction should be treated as moral equals. John notes (p. 24) that

… classical liberals see these wide-ranging economic liberties as being especially weighty compared to other social values. … But classical liberals do not treat economic liberties as moral absolutes or as in any way more basic than the other fundamental rights and liberties.

In particular, in all of the realms of liberty the presumption should be toward respecting individual liberty, but recognizing from a consequentialist perspective that there may be net benefits from allowing some coercion, such as taxation and wealth transfer to provide resources for a social safety net (a policy that, for example, Hayek advocated).

But I want to focus on one specific insight in John’s book that will stick with me and change how I think about individual liberty and economic regulation: self-authorship (The specific semantics here may be common in philosophy, but they are new and exciting to me). Embodying a definition from Rawls, John defines self-authorship as (p. 40)

… the capacity to develop and act upon a life plan (whether that plan be individual, collective, or otherwise shared). People are life agents and their agency matters. As responsible self-authors, they have the capacity to realistically assess the options before them and, in light of that assessment, to set standards for a life of a sort that each deems worth living.

The flip side of self-authorship is the individual’s recognition that others are themselves responsible self-authors, and that each of us has a duty to respect that self-authorship to the greatest extent possible when designing social systems that will necessarily involve some degree of coercion. One way we can use this concept of self-authorship is as a way to interpret Mill’s original argument; to me, it looks like Mill was arguing that economic activity such as commerce and exchange does not fall within the realm of activity relevant to self-authorship. However, classical liberals argue, and John is arguing here, that economic activity is just as essential a dimension of self-authorship as speech, association, political representation, and other dimensions arising out of our core civil liberties. Consider how much of our moral capacity to act upon a plan as a responsible agent takes form and meaning through our work and consumption decisions. I see self-authorship as one essential strand that can synthesize across these two post-Mill branches, but such a synthesis requires some common ground agreement on the extent to which economic activity is important for self-authorship. I expect John will develop this in the chapters I haven’t gotten to yet.

Why should you care about this issue of civil liberties, economic liberty, and self-authorship if you are reading KP because you are interested in electricity regulation and technology? Regulation as implemented in electricity interferes with self-authorship for individuals in a range of roles, consumer and innovator in particular. One consequence of acting on self-authorship is innovation and technological change, which is a manifestation of human creativity and thus intimately connected to self-authorship. Furthermore, look back at John’s definition of self-authorship. Economic regulation of retail electricity markets removes individual agency in consumption choices, in production choices, and in innovation choices. By preferencing an increasingly obsolete engineering-driven top-down model of vertically-integrated infrastructure financing and retail service provision, regulation demotes individual agency and treats it as unimportant. Especially if you come to electricity from an engineering and/or a rate-making perspective you may not think often about the ethical foundations of the regulatory system we inhabit; here’s one ethical aspect of it that I think is worthy of your consideration. Technological change has made choice more feasible and potentially attractive to some consumers, and environmental concerns make consumer choice and awareness of fuel use implications more important. Thus a dimension of economic activity — the production and consumption of electricity services and the innovations interacting with those services — that used to be treated as a commodity/infrastructure transaction does have aspects of self-authorship to it that traditional economic regulation constrains. There are ethical implications of regulation.

Ironically, actually, one justification often offered for this regulatory system is to maintain uniform treatment of residential customers in a way that will ensure that prices stay low and stable for “vulnerable” consumers such as elderly and low-income consumers; this justification sounds Rawlsian. But it also does constrain the self-authorship of other consumers, producers, and innovators in ways that may make them worse off, and moreover, if those others were allowed choice and freedom of expression through their technology and energy consumption decisions, they may bring about a world in which new products and services actually drive down costs or create unanticipated value that could benefit those vulnerable consumers. Is that tradeoff worth it, ethically or economically?

I’m only a few chapters in, and I’m sure that the rest of the work will be just as thought-provoking and insightful.

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Frontiers in dynamic pricing: spot advertising auctions

June 14, 2012

Lynne Kiesling

According to this Ars Technica story (and a linked Bloomberg article), Facebook is going to offer a new advertising model to its potential advertisers: a spot auction for real-time ads based on changes in current events or time-sensitive things like sporting event results.

The service, called Facebook Exchange, will use partnerships with other companies to track users as they visit other sites using tracking “cookies” placed on those sites, and allow advertisers to bid “in real time” to display ads based on the interests the browsing history represents. …

The real-time nature of the bidding system means that advertisers can target ads based on both recent behavior of Facebook users and real-world events. For example, people who have a web history related to following a specific Olympic event could get offers based on the outcome of that event.

For the moment, set aside the corresponding privacy issues associated with this use of cookies (although if it does present individuals with ads targeted to sites they’ve visited, that targeting may benefit consumers, and we should not forget to take that into account).

Instead, think about this as a matching or a search problem. Producers want to identify high-value consumers, and whether or not a consumer is high-value or low-value is a function of their context of time and place. Here’s where the Hayekian diffuse knowledge point comes in — the “man on the spot” has private knowledge about how much value he places on, say, buying a Spain jersey to celebrate a victory in a Euro2012 game (yes, I am expecting them to beat Ireland this afternoon!), and that value is itself a function both of whether or not Spain wins the match and of the fan’s perception of the value he attaches to getting a Spain jersey right in that moment. Before digital technology and social media, producers could not identify those high-value consumers in the moments when they are truly high value consumers, so the technology opens up new business models and reduces those search and matching costs in a much more dynamic way. Similarly, from the consumer’s perspective, if I’m exuberant because I’ve just watched a brilliant soccer match and Spain totally dominated (thanks in large part to the outstanding field marshaling and traffic direction of holding midfielder Xabi Alonso), I’m going to be happy to have lower search costs of finding a Spain jersey because of the targeted advertising.

Models of dynamic pricing suggest what we should expect to see in Facebook’s ad pricing — lower prices for time-sensitive products and services at times that are more distant from the event, higher prices for ads closer to and during the events. This advertising price discrimination may also be a better revenue model for Facebook, for whom advertising revenue has not been reliable in the model they are currently pursuing.

 

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Elinor Ostrom as a role model

June 13, 2012

Lynne Kiesling

It’s no secret that Elinor Ostrom has always been a role model for me; the KP archives contain many references to her work and accomplishments from both of us, and much of my thinking in my own work rests on ideas and inspirations that I have drawn from her work. Lin passed away yesterday morning, and I’ll take the liberty of speaking for Mike to say that we’ll mourn the loss of her brilliant work, her inspiration, and her generous and cheerful spirit.

In September 2009 I gave a talk at the workshop at IU, on the Olympic Peninsula Project and how the behavior of the homeowners on the real-time pricing contract provided evidence of self-organization in a complex system. Lin was a generous and gracious host; in addition to her enthusiasm for the paper and her probing questions about it, she was exceedingly kind in spending the previous evening with me at dinner and then at a walk around a nearby lake that she enjoyed and was happy to share with me as we talked about our many mutual interests and acquaintances. We interacted a few times after that at conferences, but that experience in Bloomington is one that I will cherish.

It’s poignant for me that on the day Lin died, I was giving a congratulatory speech to the 2012 senior class inductees of Phi Beta Kappa (Alpha of Illinois chapter). I focused my remarks on the animating principles of Phi Beta Kappa, as articulated by National Secretary John Churchill:

ΦΒΚ stands for freedom of inquiry and expression, disciplinary rigor, breadth of intellectual perspective, the cultivation of skills of deliberation and ethical reflection, the pursuit of wisdom, and the application of the fruits of scholarship and research in practical life. We champion these values in the confidence that a world influenced by them will be a more just and peaceful world.

As I encouraged our new members to carry these principles forward into the world with their diligence, inquisitiveness, and creativity, Lin was in my mind as the embodiment of these principles of freedom of scholarly inquiry, integrity, and practical application of knowledge.

Pete Boettke has a lovely memorial of Lin, the conclusion of which urges us to carry her work forward:

Lin leaves behind a tremendous intellectual legacy.  We have much work to do, and we will honor her by getting on with that task.  She also leaves us with a lasting impression as a personal role model for how to pursue one’s career as a teacher and mentor to future citizen/scholars, and also as a scholar in the field of political economy seeking to understand the foundations of social cooperation across time and place in collaboration with other intellectually curious scholars across academic disciplines.  Vernon Smith once summed up Lin’s personality as “humble and hard-working”, and I can only add to that she was “gracious and giving”.  Think about how much can be accomplished when the very best of us exhibit such traits and set the example for all the rest of us to strive to emulate.

Here are the New York Times obituary and Wall Street Journal obituary.

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Poor market design causing high prices in Diablo III auction house?

June 12, 2012

Michael Giberson

I don’t play Diablo III, but I do follow price gouging discussions online, which led me to this post on the Diablo III discussion forum: “Auction House and Price Gouging.”

The initial complaint comes from a player trying to equip a new character through purchases in the Auction House, an in-game player-to-player trading mechanism, and finding prices were much higher than just a few weeks earlier.

WTF is going on? When I first got this game (release), I thought (despite all the issues) that the Auction House was a wonderful implementation …

I was able to gear up my Monk even at lower levels for fairly cheap. You have to remember that it was my first character and gold was scarce/difficult to come by, but still.. items in the AH were affordable. This includes +dex rares, IAS blues, +vit rares, etc.

3 weeks later and I finally roll another toon, only to find out that low level items (even in the 5-10 lvl range) are BEYOND inflated. I couldn’t even find blue +movement speed boots for my new DH without dropping 3-5k gold…

It seems like people price their gear (even low level gear) depending on what other people price their gear, so it almost feels like the sense of community (it’s difficult to explain, but I felt it in the beginning) has been replaced by $$$ signs, lol.

Price gouging leading to a loss of the sense of community? Sounds like someone has been reading his Michael Sandel.

Diablo III auction house screen shot from MMO News

A few economic explanations are offered in the replies, ranging from the basic microeconomics (“supply and demand”) to intermediate macroeconomics level (gold farmers are bringing too much money into the game, causing inflation).

The advanced economics explanations focuses on market design choices made by the game designers. Each player can only offer up to ten items at a time, and once offered the item cannot be replaced by another offer for 36 hours.

When the game was first released, many players were low level, no one had a lot of gold, and low-powered items were placed into the market as characters advanced and obtained better quality items. As characters became even more advanced, continuing to accumulate a mix of low-, medium-, and high-quality items, the 10-item limit becomes binding.

Now, to sell a low-quality item of the sort a beginning character could use, the player has to forego the opportunity to sell medium- or high-quality items at higher prices.

The opportunity cost of selling low-level items has risen, and the price follows.

NOTE: Diablo III will soon feature a real money Auction House.

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Not your grandfather’s dysfunctional energy policy

June 11, 2012

Michael Giberson

In the Christian Science Monitor, Robert Rapier wishes for a stable energy policy. It is an attractive idea. After all, policy uncertainty plays havoc with the ability of investors, managers, workers and consumers to coordinate plans in ways that usually work to make us all better off. He provides three examples–the production tax credit for renewable energy, Bernie Sanders’s “End Polluter Welfare Act,” and Congressional interference with Navy biofuel purchases–and as many more examples as you want could be found.

Rapier ends with a common diagnosis of the problem: “the real reason we have dysfunctional energy policies is that we elect dysfunctional leaders,” and concludes we just need to find ways to work around them.

I disagree that the reason we have dysfunctional policies is because of dysfunctional leaders. Instead we have quite talented and adept leaders, entirely capable of working the system to their advantage. We don’t have stable policy because policymakers don’t want stable policy; stability would reduce policymakers’ significance to that of mere policy-caretakers, and no one shows much reverence for caretakers (nor donates to the caretakers’ Super-PACs).

But mostly our energy policy makers have figured out–in true “stationary bandit” form–that we want to let prices and markets work for energy resources, and so they tinker around the edges. Just compare today’s energy policy practice to that of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s.

This isn’t a policy that Washington, D.C., has adopted so much as a policy that reality has pushed upon them. Nor is this policy something Washington, D.C. really understands. So while most of the time the tinkering is around the edges, sometimes they accidentally strike close to the foundation. When they do, that’s when we need to sit up and take notice.

 

AFTERTHOUGHT: At least Rapier doesn’t conclude the answer is to elect better leaders. The better fix is to change the game, not merely change the players.

SECOND AFTERTHOUGHT: Except, of course, the players are the ones who decide on the rules of the game. D’oh!

THIRD AFTERTHOUGHT: Throw the bums out.

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Adam Smith opposes “shock therapy” for developing and transitioning economies

June 9, 2012

Michael Giberson

“Get the prices right!” was the rallying cry of some economists in the aftermath of the break up of the Soviet Union. Don’t plan the transition, stop planning and let markets sort it out. Similar advice goes out to developing economies around the world. Don’t ease your way to liberalization, throw open the gates!

In a paper just published in The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Maria Pia Paganelli considers what advice Adam Smith might offer: “Economies in Transition and in Development: a Possible Warning from Adam Smith.” (Alternate link). Here is a hint, Smith wouldn’t focus on “getting the prices right.”

Paganelli writes (and I’m skipping a lot of good stuff to get directly to the Smithian advice, so do read the whole thing):

Smith offers one explicit policy prescription: avoid rent-seeking, if you can.

The legislature, were it possible that its deliberations could be always directed, not by the clamourous importunity of partial interests, but by an extensive view of the general good, ought upon this very account, perhaps, to be particularly careful neither to establish any new monopolies of this kind, nor to extend further those which are already established. Every such regulation introduces some degree of real disorder into the constitution of the state, which it will be difficult afterwards to cure without occasioning another disorder. (WN IV.ii.44: 471–2)

Smith’s advice sounds like some contemporary advice. Acemoglu (2008) claims, in fact, that:

Every policy intervention creates winners and losers. The winners not only gain economically, but also become politically powerful. These politically powerful groups can then become a barrier against further progress. This is well illustrated by the experience of import substitution, which supported nascent industrial groups in many developing economies. In most cases, the subsidized conglomerates were highly inefficient and became a formidable obstacle to further reform.

His advice: ‘Refrain from policies that will create new and potentially dangerous political constituencies’ (p. 5).

But how can it be possible to refrain? How can it be possible for the legislature to not be directed by ‘the clamourous importunity of partial interests’? Smith appeals to the legislator, claiming that he should not fall for the flattery of the self-interested merchants but should preserve the natural system of liberty out of reverence toward its beauty. But our civic spirit is generally weak (TMS IV.1.11). So how can it be strengthened? Additionally, if a ‘regular administration of justice’ is needed for commerce to flourish, how do we get this ‘justice of government’, which is so deeply missing in most transitioning and developing countries?

One can infer at least two suggestions from Smith’s work. One is to avoid situations that may generate rent-seeking opportunities, as we just saw. The other is to develop a strong sense of moral respect for rules, for institutions and for the public good. Both of these prescriptions collapse into only one: the gradual introduction of commerce. A gradual opening of the large wealth offered by international trade restrains rent-seeking opportunities and is likely to develop sound institutions and a strong moral sense that leads to respect for them. Smith indeed tells us that a just set of institutions and a public spirit do not come from any human wisdom, plan or design. They are not something that can be imposed from above or from the outside. They are something that comes, gradually, with commerce. Only commerce, when very gradually introduced, can ignite what no army or wisdom is able to start (WN III.iv.10: 418, WN V.i.g. 24–25: 803).

Smith claims indeed that it is from the gradual introduction of commerce that we generate both a strong set of institutions and the conditions that develop a strong moral sense, which would be fertile ground for prosperity.

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Horwitz: Do free markets require “rational” actors?

June 7, 2012

Lynne Kiesling

Steve Horwitz has a great Freeman column today, inspired by reading Dan Ariely’s Predictably Irrational. Steve starts by pointing out that the definition of “rational” is not uniform, which matters a great deal because of the theoretical, empirical, and policy implications one draws from the definition used:

People act “irrationally,” in the sense of not picking the utility-maximizing (that is, money-maximizing) choice, all the time. (Of course this notion of rationality is much more stringent than the Misesian idea of rationality as choosing the appropriate means for a desired end.) But, as his title suggests, the experimental evidence is also clear that these irrationalities are not random, but predictable. Our reasoning processes are subject to a variety of what seem to be built-in biases that lead us to deviate from the rational-actor model. Ariely doesn’t discuss the sources of these biases that much, but other literature on cognition indicates that they may be features of the very structure of our brains that reflect the long evolutionary path that created modern humans.

If you use the “money-maximizing” definition of rationality to evaluate individual choices, many things are going to fail to meet that definition that would still meet the more general conception of rationality as “choosing the appropriate means for a desired end”. Steve attaches that idea to Mises, correctly, but I’d also attach it to Vernon Smith’s ecological rationality (and through him to David Hume and the psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer and his evaluation of “fast and frugal” heuristics), Herb Simon, and Thomas Schelling. Not all desired ends can be captured neatly or observed as being “money-maximizing”, so that narrow definition of rationality is quite restrictive.

Note also the difference in focus between the two concepts. The “money-maximizing” definition of rationality emphasizes outcomes, and outcomes as measured using a particular unit of account. The “choosing the appropriate means for a desired end” definition still poses a desired outcome, but note how the locus of evaluation of the action shifts back from the demonstrated outcome toward the process of choice. It’s a subtle shift; even in the theoretical literature grounded in the “money-maximizing” concept of rationality the point is to evaluate the choices individuals make. But that concept relies more on using the outcome to evaluate the rationality of the choice process ex post, while the “choosing the appropriate means for a desired end” framing of the concept takes a more process-oriented, ex ante evaluation of whether or not the choice process appears to make sense.

The second valuable point from Ariely’s work that Steve emphasizes is the “predictably” part of “predictably irrational”. Our cognitive biases are substantially consistent and systematic. Those who are inclined to see our human cognitive characteristics as “market failures” look at this predictability as an opportunity to use government intervention to overcome those biases, and presumably to make better overall choices, with the better being evaluated using the “money-maximizing” rationality concept discussed above. But what Steve points out that is really important is that how well we learn, respond, and adapt to biases is part of that broader conception of rationality:

Even if people make “mistakes” by not acting as the strict model would suggest, they will receive feedback from the competitive marketplace that will demonstrate their errors and give them the incentive and knowledge to correct them. Those who can recognize their biases and correct for them will do better than those who can’t, and markets enable us to do that when they are genuinely free and competitive. This is what Nobel laureate Vernon Smith calls “ecological rationality.” Even if individuals are irrational, the system as a whole produces rational outcomes.

This is one powerful argument for why institutions matter. The institutional environment affects those feedback effects and whether they are going to enable individuals to profit from error correction or not. This observation also feeds into the entire process of innovation and technological change.

Finally, Steve points out what continues to be a striking omission from the policy conclusions drawn based on behavioral economics — political actors are human too, and thus possess the same cognitive biases in those political roles as they do in other decision-making roles in their lives. But political institutions and processes do not embed the same high-powered and robust error-correction incentives that markets do, so political actors don’t have the same high-powered incentives to recognize their own biases and correct them. Thus political institutions based on attempts to correct “predictable irrationality” are likely to result in unintended consequences and not to achieve the desired ends of policy makers. That’s the conclusion you draw when you synthesize behavioral economics and public choice.

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Price gouging in literature: Little House on the Prairie’s “The Long Winter”

June 5, 2012

Michael Giberson

Jeremy’s Blog at LDSLiberty.org comments on a price gouging episode in The Long Winter, the sixth book in the Little House on the Prairie series by Laura Ingalls Wilder.

Due to a long winter of snow and storms, the people in the town of De Smet are at the point of starving.  Suddenly the shop owner in town has a large supply of wheat at his disposal and rather than selling it for the normal mark-up amount above costs, he decides to sell each bushel for over two times what he paid.

After Loftus, the store owner, states “That wheat’s mine and I’ve got a right to charge any prices I want to for it.”  Pa Ingalls responds:

“That’s so, Loftus, you have,”…”This is a free country and every man’s got a right to do as he pleases with his own property.”  He said to the crowd, “You know that’s a fact, boys”.

… However, Pa decided to use persuasion to get the store owner to lower the price.  In addition to petitioning the humanitarian side of the business owner, Pa also goes on to state:

Don’t forget every one of us is free and independent, Loftus.  This winter won’t last forever and maybe you want us to go on doing business after it’s over…  You’ve got us down now.  That’s your business, as you say.  But your business depends on our good will.  You maybe don’t notice that now, but along next summer you’ll likely notice it.

Loftus decided to sell the wheat at cost, due to persuasion and not force.

I haven’t read the Little House on the Prairie books myself, so I can’t authoritatively comment on what market alternatives the people of De Smet may have the next summer. But the small group scenario posed in the story may reasonably support different conclusions about the prudence of price increases under difficult market conditions than might be reached when considering more anonymous consumer-retailer interactions under typical conditions today.

QUIRKY NOTE: Laura Ingalls Wilder’s daughter Rose, who was born in De Smet in 1886, became a prominent and noted early libertarian.  (Consider this story of a state trooper appearing at Rose Wilder Lane’s door in response to a postcard objecting to Social Security. Not the most significant event, but clearly she was a lively character.)

(HT to my brother Todd for mentioning the price gouging post.)

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