Political Economy

The U.S. trade deficit jumped nearly 15 percent in January as strong demand for imports reflected economic growth but raised concerns that American exports -- despite a record-setting month -- were not keeping pace.

The $46 billion shortfall, up from $40.3 billion in December, partly reflected rising world oil prices. But it was largely driven by consumers buying up imported goods and businesses bringing in capital and industrial goods from overseas.

America's trade deficit with China accounted for about half the overall shortfall, rising to $23.3 billion from $20.7 billion the month before.

Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, in a statement, emphasized the record export number. U.S. firms recorded $167.7 billion in overseas sales in January, up 2.7 percent from the month before.

"We've now seen private-sector job growth for 12 straight months, and increasing U.S. exports play a key role in that," Locke said.

But others noted that a singular focus on exports glosses over the rest of the equation. The higher-than-expected jump in the deficit, "will be a bigger drag on...real GDP growth," said Barclays Capital, which has scaled back its expectations of U.S. economic growth for the first three months of the year from a 3.5 percent annual rate to 3 percent.

"To the extent that this surge reflects the strength of domestic demand...it isn't necessarily a disaster," wrote analysts at Capital Economics. "Nevertheless, it is a concern."

At 8:30 a.m. -- The Labor Department releases weekly jobless claims.

At 8:30 a.m. -- The Commerce Department releases trade balance numbers for January. Forecasters are expecting the trade deficit to widen to $41.5 billion, from $40.6 billion, suggesting that imports are rising faster than exports and that trade will be somewhat of a drain on economic activity for the quarter.

At 10 a.m. -- The House Financial Services subcommittee on capital markets holds a hearing on the Securities and Exchange Commission's budget.

At 2 p.m. -- The Treasury Department releases the federal budget for February.

Listmaking is big business for the magazine industry: Time uses one issue each year to tell us who the world's most influential leaders and thinkers are; U.S. News & World Reports stirs panic in college administrators everywhere with its annual ranking of the nation's best colleges; and People and other celebrity mags give us yearly assessments of who Hollywood's hottest heartthrobs are.

And with today's publication of Forbes's annual ranking of the world's billionaires, the business community gets its equivalent to those other much-pored-over lists.

Mexican telecom tycoon Carlos Slim, last year's top-ranked billionaire, nabbed the No. 1 spot again with an estimated net worth of $74 billion. Microsoft founder Bill Gates and investing guru Warren Buffett also held their positions from last year's list, coming in at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively.

Despite the lack of change at the top, Forbes notes that the list was noteworthy nonetheless: It was its largest list ever, with more than 1,200 billionaires included, and their total net worth added up to the largest amount ever, $4.5 trillion.

There is plenty of interesting trivia to be culled from the list, but here are some highlights:

• Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg is almost the world's youngest billionaire, but not quite. That honor goes to Dustin Moskovitz, who is six days younger than Zuckerberg. Moskovitz was Zuckerberg's roommate and used to work at Facebook before leaving to start his own company. Still, Zuckerberg's estimated $13.5 billion dwarfs Moskovitz's estimated $2.7 billion.
• Moscow is now home to more billionaires than any other city.
• The only woman to crack the top 20 on the list is Christy Walton, whose fortune primarily comes from the retailer Wal-Mart, founded by her late father-in-law.

You view the full list on Forbes site as well as check out brief profiles of each member.

U.S. trade representative Ron Kirk heads to Capitol Hill this morning for what promises to be a testy hearing with lawmakers eager for the administration to move on three pending free trade agreements.

The Obama administration is close to submitting its agreement with Korea for Congressional approval, but Kirk will likely be grilled on what amounts to round two: pending pacts with Colombia and Panama that were negotiated by the George W. Bush administration but never sent to Congress.

Korea was low-hanging fruit compared with Colombia and Panama. In the original Bush deal, Korea would drop substantial tariffs on agricultural and other goods. Comparable U.S. tariffs are already low, and any visit to a Best Buy or auto mall shows how successful Korean companies have been with the American consumer. Subsequent changes negotiated by Kirk sweetened the deal for the United States, giving better access to the Korean market for U.S. automakers -- to the point where both car manufacturers and the United Auto Workers union gave joint support.

Colombia and Panama are a tougher sell politically, as some of President Obama's core constituencies are wary of Colombia's reputation as unfriendly to union organizers and labor rights, and of Panama's status as a tax haven. Both countries says they have made progress on such issues, and Congressional leaders have begun pushing the administration to move.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who called Wednesday's session, recently visited Colombia and has been pressing Kirk to lay out a timetable and reveal any explicit steps the administration expects from Colombia.

A heavy-hitting, bipartisan list of former U.S. trade representatives and experts on Latin America recently urged the administration to move ahead with the agreements -- now stalled for five years -- to open markets and as an acknowledgment of partnerships such as Colombia's help with anti-drug trafficking efforts in Afghanistan.

But as with Korea, the administration has been hesitant. As Kirk noted after winning changes to the Korea deal, delays were necessary to get a better agreement, and he has shown no interest so far in rushing either Colombia or Panama.

At 10 a.m. -- The Commerce Department releases wholesale inventories for January.

At 7:30 a.m. -- The National Federation of Independent Businesses releases its small business survey for February.

Members of Congress probing potential conflicts of interest in the SEC's posture toward Bernard Madoff's investors are now expressing concern about potential conflicts of interest in the SEC's response to their probe.

It's the latest twist in the saga of David Becker, the former SEC general counsel who helped frame the SEC's position on Madoff issues after his family benefited from the Ponzi scheme.

Lawmakers have asked Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary L. Schapiro to turn over a host of records, but Monday they complained that the SEC office at the center of the controversy -- the Office of the General Counsel -- was apparently coordinating the response.

"As a result of Mr. Becker's former position within the OGC, we are concerned that the preparation of the Commission's response might be supervised and conducted by individuals who were themselves involved in the events and communications" that are the subject of the inquiry, Rep. Darrel Issa (R-Calif.), chairman of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, and Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa), ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, wrote in a Monday letter to Schapiro.

The lawmakers asked that the task be entrusted to the SEC's inspector general, who is also investigating the matter.

SEC spokesman John Nester declined to comment.

Members of Congress are still waiting for Schapiro's answers to a list of questions about the Becker affair. They will have a chance to ask them in person Thursday, when she is scheduled to testify on Capitol Hill.

Three congressional panels have scheduled hearings on the SEC for Thursday.

Timeline
Monday, Mar. 7, 2011: Wisconsin Democrats to return soon
Sunday, Mar. 6, 2011: Supporters of anti-union bill hold rally

Saturday, Mar. 5, 2011: Gov. Walker begins process for layoffs
Friday, Mar. 4, 2011: Ohio GOP may invite backlash with tough stance
Thursday, Mar. 3, 2011: Union battles highlight debate over schools
Wednesday, Mar. 2, 2011: Ohio bill weakens union rights
Tuesday, Mar. 1, 2011: Protests grow in Ohio
Monday, Feb. 28, 2011: Government workers vs. taxpayers
Sunday, Feb. 27, 2011: Gov. Walker steps up his defense

Saturday, Feb. 26, 2011: Gov. Walker does not back down
Friday, Feb. 25, 2011: Wisconsin Assembly passes anti-union bill
Thursday, Feb. 24, 2011: Wisconsin Assembly to vote on bill
Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2011: Wisconsin governor gets 'pranked'
Tuesday, Feb. 22, 2011: State budget clashes spread to Indiana, Ohio
Monday, Feb. 21, 2011: Walker refuses to compromise
Sunday, Feb. 20, 2011: Protests continue for 6th day

Saturday, Feb. 19, 2011: Counter-demonstrators support governor's bill
Friday, Feb. 18, 2011: Protesters continue to flood Wisconsin Capitol
Thursday, Feb. 17, 2011: Obama joins Wisconsin's budget battle
Wednesday, Feb. 16, 2011: Thousands protest anti-union bill

Budget clash hotspots

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Monday, March 7, 2011
Wisconsin Democrats to return soon
The State Senate Democrats who left Wisconsin to block a vote on a bill that would severely curb collective bargaining for most public employees are planning to return soon, one of the lawmakers said. State Sen. Robert Jauch said the 14 Democrats are convinced that passing the measure would severely damage their Republican opponents.

News: Lawmaker: State Senate Democrats will return soon to Madison
Analysis: Are we nearing an endgame in Wisconsin?

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Sunday, March 6, 2011
Supporters of anti-union bill hold rally
About 700 people rallied Sunday in support of Republican Gov. Scott Walker and his anti-union plan to balance the budget - a demonstration meant to counter three weeks of large anti-Walker protests in and around the state Capitol.

News: Supporters of bill hold rally in Wisconsin
Opinion: The Wisconsin union fight isn't about benefits. It's about labor's influence.
Opinion: Who's winning the fight over public-employee unions?

Video: Michael Moore rallies protesters

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Saturday, March 5, 2011
Wisc. governor begins process for layoffs
Gov. Walker sent letters to state employee unions saying that layoff notices would go out to state employees in 15 days. The governor also said that actual layoffs would occur a month from now if legislators do not pass his "budget repair" proposal.

News: Layoff process begins, escalating standoff in Wisconsin
Analysis: New ads turn up the heat on Wisconsin Republicans

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Friday, March 4, 2011
Ohio GOP may invite backlash with tough stance on unions
State Republicans took the toughest line yet against public-sector unions this week, delivering an early and significant victory for a slew of lawmakers elected in November.

News: State, local pension funds understate shortfall by $1.5 trillion or more
News: Some Democratic state legislators have recently embraced a simple tool to gain leverage: the empty chair.

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Thursday, March 3, 2011
Midwest union battles highlight debate over improving schools
The Republican faceoff with labor unions in the Midwest and elsewhere marks not just a fight over money and collective bargaining, but also a test of wills over how to improve the nation's schools. GOP governors are pushing to limit teacher bargaining rights, dismantle teacher tenure and channel public money toward private schools. All are direct challenges to the teachers unions and their mostly Democratic political allies in Congress and in statehouses across the nation.

Opinion: Dionne: No glory for governors trying to do the right fiscal thing

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Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Ohio bill weakens public employee union negotiating rights
The Ohio Senate approved a bill that would weaken the powers of public workers unions to negotiate their contracts. The vote came as union supporters protested the measure for a second day on the grounds of the state capitol in Columbus.

Opinion: The Plum Line: Wisconsin Dems throw their weight behind drive to recall GOP Senators

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Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Protests grow in Ohio as vote on union rights nears

Thousands of union supporters descended on the Ohio Statehouse on Tuesday to protest a proposal that would dramatically curtail bargaining powers of government workers, as the state becomes the latest flash point in the fight over union rights.

News: GOP groups seek to raise $120M to spend against Obama and other Democrats
Opinion: The Fix: Unions winning battle for public opinion in Wisconsin
Opinion: The Plum Line: GOP ad badly distorts history of Wisconsin standoff
Panel: Wisconsin has two fiscal problems
Opinion: Thiessen: Wisconsin and the GOP revolution

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Monday, Feb. 28, 2011

Interactive graphic: States in crisis

A state-by-state look at budget shortfalls, pensions liabilities, and proposed spending cuts. A screen grab is below; click on the link above to view the interactive version.

Government workers vs. taxpayers
The divide between government worker unions and their opponents, playing out now in several state capitals, highlights a critical aspect of the evolving labor movement. Throughout U.S. history, the most prominent union clashes largely involved employees squaring off against big corporate owners over how to share profits. The recent state budget controversies feature union members bargaining against state and local governments over wages and benefits provided by taxpayers.

News: Ohio, Wisconsin shine spotlight on new union battle
News: Police stop short of evicting demonstrators from Wis. capitol
Opinion: Wisconsin's history with unions

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Sunday, Feb. 27, 2011
Gov. Scott Walker steps up his defense

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) defended his position on curtailing collective bargaining rights for public employees during an appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press" Sunday.

Asked about exemptions for police officers and firefighters, Walker argued that "this is not a value judgment about employees, but it is ultimately about preserving public safety." Walker stood by his remark that "this is our moment in Wisconsin's history," saying," I make no apology for the fact that this is an important moment in time." Asked about how the standoff may end, Walker described himself as "an eternal optimist" and predicted that "at least some" of the state senators who have fled the state will return. He cautioned, though, that if the bill fails to pass by Tuesday, the state will lose $155 million in savings, and "if we continue down that path, we start seeing layoffs."

Walker also said he had rejected the idea of planting troublemakers into the crowd of protesters. "The bottom line is we rejected that because we have had a civil discourse," he said.

-- By Felicia Sonmez

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Saturday, Feb. 26, 2011
Gov. Walker refuses to back down
As state leaders gather in Washington for an annual gathering of the National Governors Association, protests continue in Wisconsin, Ohio and elsewhere over state government spending cuts and collective-bargaining rights.

News: Gov. Walker threatens to trigger layoffs for thousands of public workers
News: Facts are in short supply in debate over union bill
News: Democratic governors try to enlist labor's help in dealing with budget crises
News: Gov. Walker and other leaders are set to appear on "Meet the Press" tomorrow
Opinion: Scott Walker's unprincipled rigidity
Opinion: Gov. Scott Walker can thank Michelle Rhee for making teachers unions the enemy

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Friday, Feb. 25, 2011
Wisconsin Assembly approves anti-union bill
The Wisconsin Assembly passed a bill that would strip most public workers of their collective bargaining rights--the first significant action on the new Republican governor's plan. The vote put an end to three straight days of punishing debate, but the political standoff over the bill is far from over. In Washington, Democratic governors gathered for a national conference assailed Republican Wisconsin governor Scott Walker.

News: State spending cuts slow US economic growth in Q4
News: Some GOP leaders soften attacks on public unions
News: Democratic governors try to enlist labor's help in dealing with budget crises
News: Palin, Gingrich, other possible 2012 GOP Presidential candidates weigh in
News: Virginia groups criticize McDonnell's support of Wisconsin's Walker
Editorial: Gov. Scott Walker could win in Wisconsin by compromising
Video:

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Thursday, Feb. 24, 2011
Wisconsin Assembly reaches deal; state troopers sent to missing senators' homes

Republicans and Democrats in the Wisconsin Assembly agreed to a deal shortly before dawn on Thursday morning that sets the stage for a vote on a controversial bill taking away collective bargaining rights for public workers. Wisconsin state troopers were dispatched to the homes of the missing Democratic senators in an attempt to pressure them to return to break an impasse
on a budget bill.

Analysis: Wisconsin governor urging others to take stands against unions
Opinion: The Fix: For Walker, cause and celebrity don't necessarily mean cause celebre
News: 44: The blogger behind the Scott Walker prank call

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Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2011
Wisconsin governor gets 'pranked'

As the standoff continued in Wisconsin and union leaders began organizing for nationwide protests in every state capital on Saturday, the Internet was abuzz Wednesday with rumors (later confirmed) that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker got pranked by a caller claiming to be David Koch. In the call, Walker reveals that he and other Republicans are looking at whether they can charge an "ethics code violation if not an outright felony" if unions are paying for food or lodging for any of the Democratic state senators. He also says he's sending out notices next week to some 5,000 to 6,000 state workers letting them know that they are "at risk" of layoffs.

Opinion: Meyerson: Wisconsin is only part of the GOP war against unions
Opinion: The Fix: Why Wisconsin matters so much to labor
Opinion: Stromberg: Wisconsin governor's -- and the GOP's -- strange 'budget discipline'
Audio: Prank call

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Tuesday, Feb. 22, 2011
State budget clashes spread to Indiana, Ohio

Democrats in Indiana took a page from the playbook of their counterparts in Wisconsin on Tuesday, refusing to show up and at least temporarily blocking a Republican-backed labor bill. In Ohio, protesters descended on the state capitol in Columbus in opposition to a bill put forward by GOP lawmakers that would restrict collective bargaining rights for public employees. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie ratcheted up the pressure on state employees by linking relief from property taxes to sharp increases in what government workers pay for health insurance.

Opinion: The Plum Line: It's just about crushing the unions
Opinion: Pearlstein: Making sense of Wisconsin's union showdown
Opinion: Klein: Wisconsin is about power, not money
Analysis: Behind the Numbers: Unions and the Obama administration

Protesters gather at the Ohio Statehouse voice their opposition to a bill that would strip public employees of collective bargaining rights. (AP)

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Monday, Feb. 21, 2011
Walker refuses to compromise

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said at a news conference that he won't negotiate over his plan to strip most collective bargaining rights from nearly every public employee.

Opinion: Editorial: Public employees must help rein in unaffordable pension and benefits costs
Opinion: Robinson: Starving Wisconsin's unions
Opinion: Will: Out of Wisconsin, a lesson in leadership for Obama

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Sunday, Feb. 20, 2011
Protests continue for 6th day at Wisconsin Capitol

As union supporters moved inside for a sixth straight day of protests at the Wisconsin Capitol, Gov. Scott Walker reiterated that he wouldn't compromise on the issue that had mobilized them, a bill that would eliminate most of public employees' collective bargaining rights.

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Saturday, Feb. 19, 2011
Wisconsin protests continue; counter-demonstrators support governor's bill

Some of the largest crowds yet descended upon Wisconsin's state capitol to march, chant and shout about Republican Gov. Scott Walker's controversial proposal to trim benefits and curtail collective-bargaining rights for many of the state's unionized workers. The overwhelming majority of protesters were teachers, students and other public-service workers who spent the better part of a week demonstrating against Walker's bill. But Saturday's throngs included a sizable and vocal collection of tea party activists who arrived to show support for the embattled governor.

Opinion: Klein: How long can Scott Walker hold out?
Analysis: Balz: In Wisconsin and Washington, budget battles could reshape political landscape

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Friday, Feb. 18, 2011
Protesters continue to flood Wisconsin Capitol amid budget impasse

Tens of thousands of protesters jammed the Wisconsin capitol and many schools closed for a third day. State troopers were enlisted in the hunt for 14 Democratic state senators whose disappearance has prevented a vote on the new governor's controversial budget proposal.

Video: Public worker protests spread from Wisconsin to Ohio
Video: Wisconsin governor on protests and cuts
Opinion: Klein: Unions aren't to blame for Wisconsin's budget
Opinion: Stromberg: Wisconsin's governor is not Hitler
Opinion: Dionne: Governor Scott Walker's overreach http://voices.washingtonpost.com

Protesters fill the State Capitol in Madison. (AP)

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Thursday, Feb. 17, 2011
Obama joins Wisconsin's budget battle, opposing Republican anti-union bill

As the Wisconsin protests swelled to 25,000, President Obama thrust himself and his political operation this week into Wisconsin's broiling budget battle, mobilizing opposition Thursday to a Republican bill that would curb public-worker benefits and planning similar protests in other state capitals. Obama accused Scott Walker, the state's new Republican governor, of unleashing an "assault" on unions in pushing emergency legislation that would change future collective-bargaining agreements that affect most public employees, including teachers.

Photos: Wisconsin protests fill state capitol

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Wednesday, Feb. 16, 2011
Thousands protest Gov. Scott Walker's anti-union bill in Wisconsin

Teachers, students and prison guards descended on the Wisconsin Capitol on Wednesday to fight a move to strip government workers of union rights in the first state to grant them more than a half-century ago, but Republican leaders said the changes they sought would not be made. The Statehouse filled with as many as 10,000 demonstrators who chanted, sang the national anthem and beat drums for hours in demonstrations unlike any seen in Madison in decades. The noise in the rotunda rose to the level of a chainsaw, and many Madison teachers joined the protest by calling in sick in such numbers that the district -- the state's second-largest -- had to cancel classes.

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Markets aren't always efficient. Bubbles burst. Government intervention isn't necessarily bad, and government debt does, in the end, matter.

In the mid-2000s, the IMF promoted the vision of a healthy world economy of strong growth, low unemployment and low inflation, despite warning signs that pointed to a boom of mortgage-related investments and lax oversight. But two years ago, the world financial crisis shattered mainstream economic consensus, proving in real terms -- such as high unemployment and collapsing growth -- that the "great moderation" wasn't.

The process of picking up the pieces is still underway, and on Monday in Washington the International Monetary Fund kicks off a two-day conference of top economists to try to distill some lessons.

Is a new consensus in the making?

"The great moderation led many of us to underestimate risk. It's two years since Lehman. It's time to look at the lessons learned," said IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn. "The crisis highlighted flaws in the pre-crisis consensus."

Panelists include Nobel Prize winners, current and former government officials, and academics. Members of such a varied group may never agree. But expect some ideas -- such as government capital controls, once anathema to the IMF -- to come in from the cold.

At 3 p.m. -- The Federal Reserve releases data on consumer credit for January. Analysts expect that U.S. consumer debt outstanding will have risen by $3.4 billion, compared with a $6 billion increase in December.