SciGuy

June 28, 2010

Hurricane watch issued for Texas, Mexico coasts

A hurricane watch has just been issued for the Texas and Mexico coasts, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Along the Texas coast, the watch is in effect from south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

In Mexico, the watch covers the coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande to La Cruz.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds.

Posted by Mizanur Rahman at 09:59 AM in | Comments (9)
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Alex strengthening, aiming toward Texas-Mexico border

10 a.m. UPDATE: As anticipated the National Hurricane Center's official forecast has been nudged toward the Texas-Mexico border, bringing a hurricane inland early Thursday.

During the last two runs there has been some convergence among the models toward a landfall between northern Mexico and just south of Corpus Christi. With less than three days until the storm comes ashore further tightening of the models is likely later today.

I'll update at that time.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: After reemerging into the Gulf of Mexico Tropical Storm Alex has increased its wind speed to 50 mph, and there seems little reason to expect the storm to not intensify into at least a moderate hurricane.

This young Atlantic season's first named storm, alas, presents a real threat to northern Mexico and southern Texas.

WHERE TO?

It now appears that Alex will make its final landfall sometime early Thursday. The official forecast targets northern Mexico. This puts the Texas border area, including Brownsville, Harlingen and South Padre Island on the right side of the storm, meaning they would experience the worst winds and surge:

However there remains considerable spread in the model predictions by mid-week. Here's an image of various models run early this morning (for a legend of the models click here):

Ryan Maue

The spread is wide -- from Mexico to the Corpus Christi area -- and that's because the models continue to try and parse very minor differences in the strength of a high-pressure ridge over the northern Gulf. A stronger ridge would keep the storm south.

It is worth noting that neither of the two major models which brought Alex toward Houston yesterday -- the GFS and the Canadian -- bring the storm to the upper Texas coast this morning. They're closer to Corpus Christi.

With that being said, very small differences in the strength of the high-pressure ridge would result in large track differences. Normally the hurricane center's track forecast has an average three-day error of about 100 miles. With Alex the error has the potential to be larger.

Therefore, while a northern Mexico or Texas-Mexico border landfall seem to be the best bet, it's a reasonable possibility that Alex could track as far north as Corpus Christi. And even that range is probably not inclusive of all realistic possibilities.

HOW STRONG?

The likelihood is that Alex intensifies into a category 2 hurricane, but the hurricane center estimates there's at least a 15 to 20 percent chance of it becoming a major hurricane before landfall.

This is because wind shear across the western Gulf of Mexico has been falling (see shear tendency map), while sea surface temperatures remain warm. Anything above 26.5 degrees Celsius is considered warm enough to support strengthening:

NOAA

The atmosphere around Alex is very moist, too, with no incursions of dry air. This means none of the factors we commonly associate with inhibiting a storm's intensification -- shear, cool water, dust or dry air -- are currently present.

That means whatever comes toward the western Gulf coast will likely be a large, at least modestly powerful hurricane.

Let me stress, however, that Hurricane Ike was an atypical category 2 hurricane. Therefore residents should not expect destruction on that scale. This storm will very probably not be as big nor destructive as Ike. Nevertheless it has the potential to be nasty.

WHAT EFFECTS?

In the greater Houston area, unless Alex tracks hard north, a possible but considerably unlikely scenario, we can still probably expect some minor coastal flooding.

The National Weather Service says tides are already 1 feet above normal across the upper Texas coast, and could increase by another foot or so. Bands of rain could make their way inland through Thursday.

A landfall as far north as Corpus Christi would increase these effects substantially for Houston.

Closer to the storm's landfall there will be considerably more rain and wind and surge, obviously. But because we don't know where the storm will go, it's impossible to predict the impacts for any location.

This morning, if you live in an area from Corpus Christi and especially southward, now is the time to begin plotting an evacuation, if you normally do so from hurricanes, or at the very least to ensure that your hurricane season plans are in place and updated.

If Alex does come in just south of the Texas-Mexico border, Corpus and points south, especially the border area, will feel some significant effects because it's a large storm.

Posted by Eric Berger at 06:11 AM in Hurricanes | Comments (42)
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June 27, 2010

UPDATED: Alex nearing Gulf. Where to?

9 p.m. UPDATE: Recent satellite images show Alex re-emerging into the Gulf and we will likely see the storm intensifying by tomorrow morning.

Let's see what the overnight models do with Alex. However, for now it appears the best chance of final landfall is somewhere along the northern Mexico coast or near the Texas-Mexico border.

4 p.m. UPDATE: Alex is still a depression, but should move into the Gulf soon and begin strengthening again.

This afternoon's forecast from the National Hurricane Center continues to show Alex heading for a final landfall along the Mexico coast late Wednesday.

But behind this forecast there is a lot of uncertainty -- "below average confidence," forecaster Eric Blake wrote -- as the models remain widely divergent. Here's this afternoon's runs:

Colo. State

The key question is the strength of a high-pressure system along the Northern Gulf Coast, and whether it will weaken during the next two or three days, allowing Alex to move north. The models bringing Alex into Texas buy into such a weakening.

For now the experts at the National Hurricane Center, as well as other sources such as ImpactWeather, believe the models favoring a Mexico landfall to be correct.

However, it behooves us to carefully watch this storm as some of the models have trended northward. For now these models bringing Alex north toward Texas show only modest strengthening into a strong tropical storm, a good sign.

But with favorable conditions expected to surround Alex in the Gulf of Mexico, that may be wishful thinking.

I'll have a short update late tonight and a comprehensive overview in the morning. If Alex is aiming north at that time, which I must stress that forecasters still do not anticipate this, it will be time for serious preparations.

10 a.m. UPDATE: Alex has weakened into a tropical depression over land, as expected. Forecasters believe it will reattain hurricane strength when it gets back over the Gulf of Mexico.

The big picture remains the same. Most of the major models bring Alex into the eastern or northern Mexican coast in the middle if the week. However a couple of models that cannot be ignored still bring the storm north toward Texas. This remains the less likely solution.

The models are trying to parse fine details in the atmosphere which make big difference in the path of the system. Hopefully the models will come into better agreement during the next day, but the best bet remains on a Mexico landfall.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: This morning Tropical Storm Alex has weakened into a 40-mph storm as it tracks across the Yucatan Peninsula. But as I will discuss below there are some slight reasons to be concerned about this storm, and as a harbinger of things to come it is somewhat more concerning.

First, let's look at a recent, color-enhanced satellite image. During the last few hours, despite being overland, Alex has seen its overall organization improve.

NOAA

The official forecast still brings Alex to the Mexican coast early Thursday, but with an increased intensity as a 100-mph hurricane. That's stronger than before, hurricane forecasters say, because wind shear over the Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf is expected to be very low, and the seas are warm.

In other words Alex, when it reaches the Gulf later this afternoon or evening, will find favorable conditions.

The big question with the models is what the atmospheric steering currents will be like after the next couple of days, which is why this morning a couple of the dynamical models, including the GFS model and the Canadian model, bring Alex northward to near the Texas-Louisiana border as a strong tropical storm or hurricane.

And indeed, were Alex to travel such a path it would be over warm water longer, allowing for additional intensification (the hurricane center characterizes Alex in such a scenario as a "very powerful hurricane.")

But so far forecasters have largely discounted these models. This is partly because not only were they very late in identifying the potential of Alex to develop (the GFS long forecast no development of the system), but most of the other major dynamical and lesser statistical models still bring Alex into Mexico.

Ryan Maue As of this morning's model runs, just a few bring Alex north.

Among these models still favoring a Mexico landfall is the European model, which has been the most consistent model so far in its handling of Alex.

For this reason, and because forecasters are waiting to see if there is consistency from model run to model run with the GFS and Canadian models, the official forecast track has not been bumped too much northward. But there's a chance, albeit not a great one, it will be later today.

If Alex stays on the current forecast track the Houston area may see some rain bands, and accordingly the National Weather Service forecasts a 40 percent chance of rain next Wednesday. However they say the forecast could drastically change if Alex takes a different path.

The other reason for concern I mentioned above is simply the fact that it's June, and we're talking about the possibility of a large and perhaps even major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

On average the first named storm of the Atlantic season does not form until the first week of July, and we don't usually see the first hurricane develop until the first or second week of August.

The bottom line is that we need to keep an eye on Alex, and furthermore this storm has done absolutely nothing to dispel the likelihood that this will probably be a very active hurricane season.

Posted by Eric Berger at 06:25 AM in Hurricanes | Comments (45)
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June 26, 2010

Tropical Storm Alex, season's 1st named storm, forms

4 P.M. UPDATE: Alex strengthened today and is now nearly a hurricane with 65-mph winds. Fortunately the storm is about to move into the Yucatan Peninsula which should weaken it.

The models are in better agreement and the official forecast brings the storm into Mexico next week. I'll have a full update in the morning, when the models should have a good handle on the situation, especially after today's reconnaissance plane got a good fix on Alex's center.

10 A.M. UPDATE: The intensity of Tropical Storm Alex has increased to 45 mph this morning but the system continues to be hampered by its proximity to land and a poorly defined core.

The storm will have an opportunity to better organize after it reaches the Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday. In its most recent update the hurricane center says Alex has about a 30 percent chance of becoming a hurricane, and a 10 percent chance of becoming a category 2 hurricane or stronger.

It now seems increasingly likely the tropical system will make its final landfall in Mexico or Southern Texas on Wednesday or Thursday.

Tomorrow morning we should begin to have a better idea of the effects, if any, on the greater Houston area.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: The National Hurricane Center upgraded the Atlantic hurricane season's first depression into Tropical Storm Alex this morning. The large storm does not have a particularly well-defined center.

Although there remains a fair amount of uncertainty, with the storm's development the models are coming into better agreement about the likely track of Alex, and it no longer appears as if the storm will move toward the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Instead they bring the storm across the Yucatan Peninsula and either into Mexico or Texas:

Colo. State

Although the GFDL model shown above (yellow line) is one of the hurricane center's better models, and it does bring the storm toward the central Texas coast, at this time it's generally an outlier. Most of the other major dynamical models bring Alex, ultimately, into Mexico or southern Texas late next week

Therefore while it is possible Alex will track into the upper Texas coast, and the region is at the periphery of the hurricane center's cone of uncertainty, it appears unlikely at this time. Because the storm is so broad we are likely to see some rain and higher tides next week, however, at a minimum.

With that being said, let's see what the models do with the storm as it begins to interact with the Yucatan Peninsula over the next couple of days.

In regards to intensity the storm is difficult to predict because this is partly dependent upon how long it will remain over the Yucatan Peninsula. For now the hurricane center estimates a very strong tropical storm will move into Mexico, but they cannot rule out Alex becoming a hurricane.

My biggest concern at this time is that Alex will stall in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and either intensify before reaching land or drop flood-inducing rains over some land-based areas.

At this time, although the storm is quite large, I don't see it having a major impact on the oil spill off the northern Gulf coast.

If the storm were to track far to the east of current projections toward the central coast of Louisiana, which now seems quite unlikely, it would likely both disrupt operations to clean up the spill as well as push some oil toward land.

Friday evening I asked John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist, about the impact of a large tropical storm or category 1 hurricane striking Louisiana on the the spill extent.

"With a category 1 storm there's not much in a way of storm surge," he said. "There would be enhanced winds from the south bringing some oil onshore so there would be more oil washing up than we have seen so far."

But the surge from a category 1 hurricane is unlikely to provide the kinds of surges that could drive the oil deep into wetlands, he said.

Posted by Eric Berger at 06:01 AM in Hurricanes | Comments (42)
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June 25, 2010

It's official: Tropical Depression One has formed.

The Atlantic hurricane season's first tropical depression has formed in the western Caribbean Sea, and it probably will become Tropical Storm Alex during the next day or so.

The depression already is very, very large, as can be seen from this recent satellite image:

U.S. Navy

The good news is that the system should encounter the Yucatan Peninsula by late Saturday or Sunday, prohibiting it from significantly intensifying.

What happens after the storm emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday or Monday?

The models are widely divergent, as I noted earlier, and the storm really could go anywhere from central Mexico to the Florida panhandle. Now that this system is developing I would expect the track models to get a better handle on it, and hopefully the models will be in better agreement by tomorrow morning.

Intensity-wise, no model develops this into anything more than a Category 1 hurricane, and most keep it at tropical storm strength over the Gulf of Mexico, at worst.

In the morning I'll have a full recap of the overnight model runs and discuss whether this storm is likely to exacerbate the BP oil spill and efforts to mitigate it.

Posted by Eric Berger at 05:10 PM in Hurricanes | Comments (39)
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Has someone built a barrier to hurricanes around Texas?

No, not really. But this afternoon's model runs are somewhat amusing in regards to tropical wave 93L, which may become Tropical Storm Alex during the next couple of days.

The latest models bring the storm seemingly everywhere along the Gulf coast except Texas.

Colo. State

In all seriousness this reinforces the idea that, if 93L spins up into a reasonably powerful tropical storm during the next day or two, it's likely to go to the northern Gulf of Mexico.

But if it doesn't do much between now and reaching the Yucatan Peninsula, the system is more likely to drift across the Bay of Campeche into central Mexico.

Posted by Eric Berger at 03:26 PM in Hurricanes | Comments (6)
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Alex likely to form today or tomorrow in Caribbean

1:00 P.M. UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center now says the chance of a tropical depression or storm forming during the next two days has increased to 80 percent.

The wave, dubbed 93L, has had an increasingly improved appearance in satellite images today.

U.S. Navy

ORIGINAL ENTRY: The tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea appears more likely to become a tropical storm within the next few days, and this morning the National Hurricane Center gives it a 70 percent chance of doing so.

Formation has become more likely as thunderstorms have increased around the storm's large center, and it has shown signs of organizing further. With an Air Force plane set to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, it could be upgraded at that time to the Atlantic season's first named storm, Alex.

In the short term it seems fairly clear this tropical wave/system will continue toward the Yucatan Peninsula, reaching it by late Saturday or Sunday. Over land it should weaken before moving into the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday or Monday.

That's where the uncertainties begin. The two big questions are thus: Where will it go at that point? Will it substantially intensify in the Gulf?

It is hard to answer either question because computer models tend to be unreliable when handling tropical systems that do not yet have well-defined centers of circulation. We can, at least, talk about a range of possibilities.

The model spread below shows this storm going anywhere from northern Mexico to the Florida panhandle by next Tuesday or Wednesday:

Colo. State

Not shown on the spread above is the European model, which brings a modestly strong tropical storm into Northern Mexico next Wednesday.

It seems likely that if the storm develops quickly today into a tropical storm it will follow a more northward track, bringing it toward Louisiana or the Florida panhandle. If it remains disorganized it will probably drift toward Northern Mexico and southern Texas.

The question of intensity is even more difficult to answer because don't know the answers to fundamental questions such as 1) Will a storm actually form today? 2) How long will its center remain over the Yucatan? 3) Where will the system go once in the Gulf of Mexico?

It's also not clear what the wind shear will be over the Gulf in two or three days time.

What we do know is that sea surface temperatures across the entire Gulf are warm enough (above 26.5 degrees Celsius) to support storm formation and strengthening:

NOAA

Yet because of all the unknowns, trying to accurately predict intensification is problematic. The models, such as they are, indicate 93L/Alex will most probably remain a tropical storm over the Gulf with only moderate intensification.

But I will say that I never like to see a system with a reasonably well defined center of circulation enter the Gulf during hurricane season.

Posted by Eric Berger at 07:15 AM in Hurricanes | Comments (56)
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June 24, 2010

Do you think these technologies will come to pass by the year 2050?

This week the Pew Research Center released the results of a survey 1,546 U.S. adults which included questions on future scientific achievements.

Specifically, they asked respondents whether the following scientific advancements will, or will not, happen by the year 2050. The percentages reflect the amount of respondents who believe the achievements will occur.

The Turing test is hard.

• Computers will be able to converse like humans: 81 percent

• Cancer will be cured: 71 percent

• Artificial limbs will perform better than natural ones: 66 percent

• Ordinary people will travel in space: 53 percent

As usual, I am well out of step with the American public.

I think it probable that only the third technology, superior artificial limbs, will come to pass. In fact I think a computer that can pass a Turing test and therefore converse like a human is the most challenging of the four technologies and therefore least likely of them.

Also, while I think cancer will be a very manageable disease by the year 2050, the skeptic in me doubts it will be cured. I will be very happy to be proven wrong.

Finally, in regards to the Apollo program, it cost $25 billion over a decade to land men on the moon. That's about $14 billion, per year, in 2010 dollars. So the cost of flying in space hasn't come down all that much in 40 years. I don't expect it to fall precipitously in another four decades, either, much as I'd like to be wrong.

Posted by Eric Berger at 03:54 PM in Great questions | Comments (27)
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Tropical wave yet to develop, final course remains unclear

This morning the tropical wave in the Caribbean (93L) remains disorganized. As of 7 a.m., the National Hurricane Center gives it about a 40 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm within the next two days.

In the water vapor image below you can that much of the thunderstorm activity is to the east of the wave, which is now roughly south to southwest of Jamaica:

U.S. Navy

Most of the track forecast models are consistent with bringing the wave toward the Yucatan Peninsula by around Saturday, but after that there's considerable divergence.

As discussed yesterday there remain two schools of thought:

1. The storm crosses the Yucatan, never really develops, and then heads into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, where it fizzles out and brings some storminess into Mexico and maybe southern Texas.

2. Either as it approaches, or after the storm crosses the Yucatan peninsula, it begins developing. If the storm does develop it probably would turn more northward into the Gulf of Mexico. At this point the storm could still threaten Texas or the northern Gulf coast by around Tuesday of next week. The intensity models, unreliable though they may be, now suggest it won't become more than a tropical storm of category 1 hurricane if this scenario occurs.

There is no confidence right now in forecasting which of the two scenarios above is more likely.

Posted by Eric Berger at 06:53 AM in Hurricanes | Comments (21)
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June 23, 2010

NASA left dangling as budget wrangle continues

It's now been five months since President Obama unveiled his budget blueprint for NASA, which included the cancellation of the Houston-based Constellation program and expected phase out of space shuttle operations.

The potential job impact to Clear Lake is on the order of about 7,000 positions, which is probably the worst-case scenario.

Although historically presidents have charted the course for NASA, a president cannot dictate the space agency's future by fiat. Instead Congress will negotiate a budget with President Obama, and in doing so appropriate funding for NASA and help establish its priorities.

Until the budget for the next fiscal year is written, NASA must continue with its programs of record, including Constellation and the shuttle. In other words, while they're being told that what they're working on is going away, for the time being NASA employees must continue toiling on it all the same.

I think that's the definition of being in limbo. Some final answers might be nice.

Which brings us to today, as Congress continues to wrangle over the fiscal year 2011 budget, beginning Oct. 1. Amidst the wrangling NASA's mission remains no clearer than mud.

Among those keenly interested and plugged into what is happening in Congress is John Logsdon, a professor emeritus of space policy at George Washington University. He tells me the most likely outcome is a three month continuing resolution for the budget.

Under such a scenario NASA would remain in continued limbo until after the elections this fall, at which time the re-elected and lame-duck members of Congress would pass an omnibus spending bill.

While such an outcome would keep employees at Johnson Space Center and other centers dangling for at last half a year more, it at least would finally provide some clarity.

And it's clearly preferable to the alternative. That would be a full 12-month continuing resolution, meaning NASA would receive a similar amount of money as it did during the 2010 fiscal year, with similar priorities.

Sen. Shelby

That would be sort of silly for NASA because it would receive billions of dollars for a shuttle program it's supposed to be shutting down.

"That would be an almost irresponsible situation," Logsdon said, adding that he believes Congress recognizes this and will take steps to ensure NASA has some clarity on its future by the end of this calendar year.

Logsdon says there is support on Capitol Hill for the president's plan, or at least a compromise which ends elements of the Constellation program, opens the door to commercial rockets to carry crew into orbit and funds a next-generation heavy-lift rocket.

But he said Sen. Richard Shelby, of Alabama, holds a number of political cards in the Senate, and so far he's disinclined to budge from his position in support of continuing Constellation.

"Finding a compromise that is acceptable to Senator Shelby that allows the program of record to be modified is crucial to moving ahead," Logsdon said.

A hero to some in NASA for his defense of Constellation, Citizens Against Government Waste recently awarded Shelby its June Porker of the Month title for his support of the program of record.

The fight, as they say, is raging at this very moment.

Posted by Eric Berger at 02:55 PM in Space | Comments (51)
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Tropical wave still weak but tracking toward Gulf

The tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea remains disorganized this morning, but the National Hurricane Center says conditions for development have improved and will remain so for the next few days. Forecasters give the wave a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next two days.

There now appear to be two scenarios concerning the wave, dubbed 93L. One is not concerning, and the other is worth watching.

The first scenario is that favored by the GFS model, which has never developed this system and brings something wet and not very windy into Belize and Honduras in Central America, where 93L is never heard from again. In this case, concerning 93L, it will have been much ado about nothing.

What seems modestly more likely, at least the scenario which more of the models are favoring, is that 93L continues along a west-northwest track over the next three days, slowly developing before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

After encountering the Yucatan, or at least grazing it, the system -- be it a tropical wave or a tropical storm -- enters the Gulf of Mexico. Here's some various model runs from this morning which show this track:

Colo. State

Normally when tropical systems reach the Gulf of Mexico during late June they encounter fairly hostile wind shear which, above 20 knots, is strong enough to prohibit substantial development. But this year the wind shear levels in the Gulf have generally been below normal since the beginning of June.

Here's an image from NOAA that depicts climate norms for wind shear, and measured values for the Gulf:

NOAA

Although it's by no means a certainty that this system will reach the Gulf, if it does several of the major models -- the European and the GFDL models -- now bring a hurricane to the Louisiana coast by early next week.

We need not say much about the possible effects of such a possibility, primarily because the greater likelihood is that 93L never develops into a hurricane. I hate to even bring it up because some readers will construe this as fear mongering. And before a disturbance has developed into a tropical storm the value of models is dubious.

Nevertheless I'm going to assume that most of my readers are adults. Therefore, it's worth noting that if the European or GFDL models are correct this morning we're talking about a system that not only will threaten New Orleans, but also would be following a path that would push a maximum amount of oil into the northern Gulf coast.

Please recognize this is but one scenario six or seven days hence of many. Although it is within the realm of possibility, it is nonetheless highly speculative. Everywhere along the Gulf coast just needs to continue watching 93L to see if it develops.

Posted by Eric Berger at 07:34 AM in Hurricanes | Comments (65)
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June 22, 2010

One laptop per child. Lower test scores?

It is hoped that by providing computers and Internet access to students will help them bridge the digital divide and make them more successful in the classroom.

Broadband: Maybe not a cure all.

Alas, it is uncertain that computers will actually accomplish such a goal. Sure, for many adults, computers are a productivity tool. But kids?

A research paper by Duke University scientists looked at the test scores of 150,000 students in North Carolina, and attempted to assess the impact of access to computers and access to broadband internet on those scores.

The study found that introducing new computers and broadband access was associated with modest but statistically significant declines in student math and reading test scores. In fact, the paper found, providing universal broadband would broaden the gaps in reading and math scores, rather than bridge the divide.

From the paper's conclusion:

Our preferred specifications indicate that 5th through 8th grade students generally perform best on math and reading tests when they do not have access to a computer at home. Conditional on owning a computer, the "optimal" rate of use is infrequent, twice a month or less.

For the average student, introducing home internet service does not produce additional benefits. For school administrators interested in maximizing achievement test scores, or reducing racial and socioeconomic disparities in test scores, all evidence suggests that a program of broadening home computer access would be counterproductive.

It's parenting, once again, that counts.

The study authors believe that, in homes where there was effective parenting monitoring of computer usage, computers and internet access did not decrease test scores. It was only in homes where children had largely unmonitored access, they believe.

One cautionary note: The study cut off in 2005, before the advent of social networking on a large scale. Instant messaging was the rage back then. We might guess, then, that computers today are even more of a time suck for kids than they were five years ago.

Posted by Eric Berger at 12:57 PM in Sociology | Comments (15)
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An update on that vigorous tropical wave

The strong tropical wave in the Caribbean (dubbed 93L) has changed little in organization overnight as it moves south of Hispaniola.

The National Hurricane Center gives it a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm during the next 48 hours. (UPDATE: At 1 p.m. the hurricane center backed down to 20 percent, but added that conditions should become more favorable for development in a day or two.)

To guess whether this wave will become the season's first named storm, or whither it will go, would be rank speculation. There has been little consistency among the computer models.

As of this morning most of the intensity models eventually develop the wave into a tropical storm and some into a hurricane after four or five days:

Colo. State Model predictions of storm intensity over time.

As for where it might go if it develops, the possibility remains from anywhere in Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. There really is no way of telling as the track models, especially after about four days, are widely variable.

Joe Bastardi, a senior meteorologist with Accuweather told me last night he expects the system will eventually move over Texas or Louisiana. That's probably as good a guess as any.

He also mentioned the following, which is interesting and a tad concerning.

"The monster seasons of 1995 and 2005 began with Gulf storms that formed out of deep tropical waves rather than the normal systems this time of year that come down from the westerlies," Bastardi said. "That we are seeing this kind of development threat early is just as big a deal as whether it actually develops."

In other words, the fact that we're seeing African waves develop into very vigorous tropical waves in June does not bode well for hopes of an inactive season this year.

Posted by Eric Berger at 06:58 AM in Hurricanes | Comments (54)
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June 21, 2010

Pondering the implications of oil, oil everywhere

The latest satellite image (taken Saturday) of the Gulf of Mexico, which clearly displays the BP oil slick, shows oil having spread across much of the northeast Gulf:

The severity of the oil spill and its only now unfolding implications clearly will have a toll on public attitudes toward fossil fuels. A recent ABC poll found that three-quarters of Americans rated the spill as a major disaster.

But will antagonism toward Big Oil in particular and fossil fuels in general last? Consider the possibility that a relief well is dug by August. Then a September hurricane disperses the worst concentrations of the oil. By next summer the impact on most beaches is limited.

Futures contracts for oil next summer are around $84. That's about $3 a gallon for most people. At what price will pocketbook concerns trump environmental worries?

I guess what I'm wondering is whether most people think the catastrophic Gulf spill will have a lasting effect on public opinion and, by extension, public policy.

Posted by Eric Berger at 02:24 PM in Environment | Comments (71)
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