Extreme spring weather a distinct possibility

The incredible images of an EF2 tornado that struck the tiny Oklahoma town of Hammon two days ago are a powerful reminder of just how fickle our weather can be.

No one was hurt, but several homes were destroyed and lives forever changed.

Tornadoes are nothing new for those of us who live in Tornado Alley. "There is no such thing as 'normal' weather in Texas," said National Weather Service meteorologist Mark Fox. "There's 'typical' weather, but it is either one extreme or the other."

And extreme is what we could be seeing this spring. We've already had a crazy winter, featuring atypical tornadoes in January in Canton and Sulphur Springs.

That was followed by record snowfall in Febuary The problem: The weather pattern known as El Niño. That's when a stronger than normal jet stream moves across North Texas in the winter and spring.

If history repeats itself, our spring could be much like the El Niño in 1973 or more recently 1992, the fourth strongest El Niño on record.

The National Weather Wervice and I think we can expect lots of rain and cooler temperatures all the way into June, although this El Niño is not expected to be as bad as the one in 1998.

That's when flooding caused major problems, and so did a tornado.

North Texas has always been the target of twisters. From 1950 to 2009, Dallas County has had 83 tornadoes; Tarrant County 82; Denton County 41; and Collin County 42.

Is there a correlation between El Niño in winter and tornadoes in spring? Not necessarily.

It's kind of like the stock market, Fox said. "Past performance does not produce the same type of events in the future."

Remember that snowy winter I mentioned earlier? It's a strong indicator of what's in store this spring.

"1972 and the winter of '73 were very snowy, as was '77 and '78," Fox said. "Both those years did have above normal totals of severe thunderstorms, and also had their share of tornadoes to go with it, and that's probably what we are looking at for this year as well."

While tornadoes are always a concern, we think it is the flooding that is likely more of threat this spring.

"We just know going into this year flash floods are going to be something that we are going to be dealing with, because we are already saturated through a wet winter, so it is definitely on the forefront of our minds," Fox said.

There is one good thing that will happen from all the spring rain: Area lakes will fill up, and drought will be a thing of the past — at least for a while, until our weather pattern changes again.

E-mail pdelkus@wfaa.com