TRAIL BLAZERS

Sen. Kip Averitt, R-Waco, said he will officially resign on March 17, allowing Gov. Rick Perry to call a special election to fill his seat on May 8.

Averitt, whose district extends north to Ellis and Johnson counties, announced last month that health concerns will sideline his political career. He told voters that he was withdrawing from the race, which is in a strong Republican district where no Democrat had filed to run against Averitt in November. He was expected to win an easy re-election, and even after his withdrawl, he did just that with 60 percent of the primary vote over Darren Yancy, a Tea Party leaning challenger from Burleson.

Averitt's victory and timeline to resign will open the door to other Republican candidates - presumably stronger than Yancy - and, yes, even some Democrats.

The Texas budget shortfall for next session -- whether it's $11 billion or $15 billion -- just got bigger.

Health and Human Services Executive Commissioner Tom Suehs just told House budget writers that the recession has overwhelmed predictions for how many Texans would sign up for Medicaid, the nation's main health care program for the poor.

It's well known that last year, lawmakers low-balled caseload growth and health care inflation in Medicaid. Suehs said he got money to cover a 3.4 percent growth in the rolls in the current fiscal year, which ends Aug. 31. Instead, enrollment will increase by 11 percent, he said. Many more poor Texans who didn't turn to Medicaid in the past, even though they were eligible, are now enrolling, he said.

"Based on caseloads, we're showing a $1.5 billion [state revenue] shortfall," Suehs said, actually understating it by some $65 million. Of that, almost $1.3 billion was Medicaid-related shortfalls.

The good news? Without federal stimulus money, which boosted the feds' Medicaid matching rate through this calendar year, Suehs' shortfall would be nearly twice as big.

Retiring six term Rep. Carl Isett, R-Lubbock, says the budget shortfall isn't as large, on a percentage basis, as the one that lawmakers bridged seven years ago, during the last recession.

Isett said that, considered as a share of Texas' current $182 billion, two year budget, the anticipated shortfall next session isn't as huge as the gap faced in the 2003 session. Back then, he noted, the deficit was $9.9 billion, but in a two year budget of about $105 billion. (It was actually about $114 bil, but his point stands.) And lawmakers next year will have much, much more -- some $8 billion -- set aside in the state's rainy day fund, Isett said.

"While there will be those who are doom and gloom, we really are not in as bad a shape," he said.

Though he's a conservative, Isett made a plea for lawmakers to consider tightening the state's constitutional spending cap, so they can be more compassionate in crunch times. He said a tighter cap would leave the state with a bigger surplus, which it then could use during economic downturns to help Texas families. That's better than having a bare fiscal cupboard during recessions, and having to cut their services, as happened in 2003, he said.

"It's very difficult to take kids off programs," Isett said.

The state's chief revenue estimator says the jobs picture in Texas has brightened a bit, though he's taking a Missouri approach -- show me -- on whether there soon will be a burst of shopping activity by Texans.

"It looks like we have turned the corner on our employment picture," John Heleman of Comptroller Susan Combs' office told the House's budget panel this morning. He noted Texas added slightly more than 30,000 jobs in January, some two-thirds of them with temporary help agencies.

But Heleman says the state economy is at a "turning point" between recession and recovery, which makes it very tricky to predict what will happen with the state's revenue workhorse, the sales tax. After several months of double-digit declines in sales tax receipts, they declined in February by only 8.8 percent from February 2009, he said, citing preliminary figures. That's good but not a trend to count on, Heleman said.

Here's a cool display put together by Layne Smith of our graphics department from data from Tuesday's election. You can see where voter turnout was heavy and not-so-heavy in Dallas County in the two primaries for governor and the Democrats' race for county judge. The pattern is as you would expect -- Republicans in the north and Democrats in the south -- but you can examine individual precincts and find some surprises. Enjoy.

Two days after her drubbing in the GOP gubernatorial primary, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison slipped back to Washington unannounced and apparently unnoticed, and cast four votes Thursday afternoon.

So, one point for getting back to work. As to transparency in government, not so much.

I can't speak for other news outlets, but The Dallas Morning News asked several Hutchison aides to let us know when she would return to work in the Senate. They didn't. We've also requested a postmortem interview to discuss her campaign and her plans regarding how long she'll keep her Senate job. No response. For all we knew she'd been hunkered down at home in Dallas, or an island somewhere.

Maybe that's where she is now. They ain't saying.

The senator's career plans remain opaque. Gov. Rick Perry gave her political cover yesterday to set aside repeated public vows to resign early, when he said he hopes she serves out the rest of her term.

Senators typically use one particular set of doors to the Senate chamber. The DMN had a reporter stationed at that door during the votes yesterday but there was no sign of Hutchison. It's easy enough for senators to slip in and out through side doors that aren't easy for reporters to stake out, though. She didn't give any floor speech. No news outlets apparently noticed her return.

But Senate records show that she was present for the four roll call votes held on Thursday, between 2:45 p.m. and 3:51 p.m. (The next votes will be on Tuesday.)

The Senate was debating a Democratic package of tax breaks. Hutchison joined other Republicans in trying to include a discretionary spending cap for the next four fiscal years. The tally was 59-41, one vote short of the 3/5 majority required.

Hutchison voted for a six-month payroll tax cut proposed by the newest senator, Scott Brown, R-Mass., but that was rejected 44-56. Budget Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont., had painted the idea as an effort to "raid" the stimulus.

Hutchison voted against a proposal by Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., to create a national tax holiday, with unspent stimulus money used to reimburse states and localities for temporarily waiving sales tax and other levies. That failed 22-78.

Hutchison also voted to confirm a federal judge in Wisconsin, adding her support to a lopsided 99-0 tally.

So, she was on the losing side twice, and the winning side twice.

The primary's over; time for a little lobby news. Frank Sturzl might be retiring from the Texas Municipal League, but he's not retiring. He will be joining Hillco, the lobby and corporate relations firm headed by Buddy Jones and Bill Miller.

Sturzl, the TML's executive director for 22 years, is well known around the Capitol and state agency halls. Logically enough, he'll be heading up the municipal practice for Hillco.

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Bill White says he's for the death penalty, isn't a 911 truther, is "a full supporter of 2nd Amendment rights" and took "a more aggressive approach" on immigration while mayor of Houston than did counterparts in practically every other U.S. and Texas city.

"With the possible exception of Farmers Branch," White said moments ago on KRLD-AM in Dallas.

White (above, Michael Ainsworth photo) said he once belonged to Mayors Against Illegal Guns but left the group after it expanded its agenda beyond efforts to crack down on a black market in stolen guns being sold to felons.

He said he supports abortion rights. "There are some very personal life decisions that should be left to citizens and not to the government," he said.

The most animated part of White's interview with KRLD's Scott Braddock came when he explained why he voted against Prop. 2, the constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, which Texans passed in 2005.

"It was in the state statutes anyway, and I just see it as sort of a wedge issue," White said. "I think the politicians ought to spend a little bit more time thinking about staying married themselves than [about] who marries whom."

Let the healing continue: Gov. Rick Perry, fresh off his primary throttling of Kay Bailey Hutchison, told WBAP talkmeister Mark Davis today that he would like Hutchison to remain in the Senate through her term, to continue fighting the Obama administration on health care, climate-change legislation, etc.

WBAP's story, linked above, lacks the money quote, about staying through the end of her term (which expires in 2012), but yours truly heard it for himself, albeit in the car, so my notes are sketchy.

This could be an important moment in the ongoing saga of what does Kay do? (Todd J. Gillman and Tom Benning had a good story on this today.) Big-name Texas Republicans are providing Hutchison with political cover to break her pledge and stay in the Senate, if she so chooses.

These were, I believe, Perry's first public comments since his Tuesday night victory speech. I thought there were three other interesting tidbits, if you care to read on:

Hi folks. Theodore Kim here. Here's a post about Tuesday's GOP primary for a seat on the powerful Railroad Commission of Texas. In a true shocker, unknown challenger David Porter trounced incumbent Victor Carrillo despite being outspent by 20 to 1.

In a lengthy email to supporters and some news media this afternoon, Carrillo blamed his loss largely on the fact that he is Latino. Here is the email in its entirety:

Dear Family, Friends, Colleagues, Supporters:

As you now surely know, last night I was defeated (61% / 39%) in my statewide Republican Primary by my opponent, David Porter. Porter, an unknown, no-campaign, no-qualification CPA from Midland residing in Giddings filed on the last day that he could file while I was waiting in Abilene to bury my dad.

He has never held any elected office, has no geoscience, industry, or legal experience other than doing tax returns for oil and gas companies.

To continue this post, click on the link below...

President Barack Obama is making the case from the East Room for giving a health care overhaul an up-or-down vote.

Among those on hand as he tries to turn up the heat on Republicans is the president-elect of the American Academy of Family Physicians, Dr. Roland Goertz, a family physician in Waco.

"No matter which approach you favor," Obama said, "I believe the United States Congress owes the American people a final vote on health care reform. We have debated this issue thoroughly, not just for a year, but for decades. Reform has already passed the House with a majority. It has already passed the Senate with a supermajority of sixty votes. And now it deserves the same kind of up-or-down vote that was cast on welfare reform, the Children's Health Insurance Program, COBRA health coverage for the unemployed, and both Bush tax cuts - all of which had to pass Congress with nothing more than a simple majority."

Join senior political writer Wayne Slater and government editor Ryan J. Rusak at noon for a live chat on the Texas gubernatorial primaries and other election news. Click to enter below...

Speaker Joe Straus saw one of his "cardinals," Longview Republican Tommy Merritt, go down to defeat Tuesday night. But another, Rep. Todd Smith, R-Euless, escaped unscathed from a primary assault.

And party switching Rep. Chuck Hopson, R-Jacksonville, won 61 percent of the GOP primary vote against two challengers in his East Texas district. Straus, R-San Antonio, had put his prestige on the line by strongly backing Hopson.

But another "cardinal," longtime Rep. Delwin Jones, R-Lubbock, couldn't break 40 percent in a three-way GOP primary. He faces Charles Perry in an April runoff.

In late 2008, Straus and 10 other anti-Tom Craddick Republicans joined 64 Democrats behind Straus as a speaker candidate. The move forced Craddick to step aside. Straus lavished plum committee assignments on the 10 Republicans. Now, after Brian McCall of Plano didn't seek re-election and Merritt was upset, enrollment in the "college" has shrunk -- though people like Smith and Fort Worth's Charlie Geren survived Tuesday.

Labor leader Linda Chavez-Thompson won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor on Tuesday, capturing 53 percent of the primary vote against two opponents. She now faces incumbent Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in the fall in a race that will be an uphill battle for the Democrat. Chavez-Thompson used her support from labor and Hispanic groups to establish a strong position in the race and also outspent her opponents - including former Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle - by a substantial margin.

Chavez-Thompson, 65, of San Antonio, is a former executive vice president of the AFL-CIO and a vice chair of the Democratic National Committee. As a child, she worked in the cotton fields near Lubbock and dropped out of school in the ninth grade to support her family. She later rose to become a local, state and national labor leader. Among the many contributors to her campaign were several national labor organizations, whose donations helped raised about $225,000 for her race.

In seeking the nomination, Chavez-Thompson stayed close to her roots, sounding working class themes and accusing Republican leaders of losing touch with ordinary Texans. She will try to become the first Democrat to hold the state's number two job since Bob Bullock, who left office more than a decade ago. Dewhurst, who was unopposed in the Republican primary on Tuesday, has already raised $2.8 million for his campaign. He is expected to ride strong Republican trends in Texas that date back to the 1990s. No Democrat has held a statewide office since then.

Mount Pleasant Republican Thomas Ratliff narrowly beat State Board of Education member and prominent social conservative Don McLeroy in the GOP primary Tuesday, while long-time board member Geraldine Miller of Dallas was upset by Dallas high school educator George Clayton. Ratliff (right) and McLeroy were expected to have a close race, but Miller was favored in her contest because of a big edge in campaign funds and her long-time incumbency. She has served on the board since 1984 and never had a close election race before.

Ratliff waged a strong campaign and outspent McLeroy for the board seat, which represents Collin County and much of Northeast Texas, but McLeroy also ran a strong race as he tried to capitalize on recent victories by the social conservative bloc on the 15-member education board. Among the successes were changes in curriculum standards for science, history and English. Ratliff accused McLeroy and his allies of ignoring the advice of teachers and education groups in their decisions - and of politicizing the curriculum requirements such as on teaching of evolution in science classes. Ratliff, a legislative consultant and lobbyist, carried 50.5 percent of the vote

McLeroy had been bounced as chairman of the board last summer after Senate Democrats blocked his nomination, raising many of the same arguments as Ratliff, the son of former Lt. Gov. Bill Ratliff. His primary loss means one less seat for the social conservative bloc, which now holds seven seats. Another member of the bloc, Ken Mercer of San Antonio, easily won re-nomination. A third seat of the bloc is headed to a runoff election. Board member Bob Craig of Lubbock, who was challenged by a candidate with social conservative views, easily won his primary race.

I just checked the Texas Election Code, with a bit of help from Bryan Preston at the state Republican Party. Yes, the race has been called for Gov. Rick Perry. Yes, the runner-up, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, conceded.

But what if Perry dips below 50 percent when all the votes are counted? Doesn't that trigger an automatic runoff?

The answer: Yes, but.
Here's the layman's version.

1. Runoff is mandatory if no candidate tops 50 percent.
2. A candidate's "concession" isn't legally binding.
3. All Hutchison needs to do is withdraw, in writing, by 5 p.m. on Friday March 12. Withdrawal makes the other runoff candidate the nominee.
4. There is no scenario for the second runner-up (that is to say, Debra Medina) to get into the runoff just because someone else pulls out of the runoff.

Here's the legal mumbo jumbo:

Gov. Rick Perry said tonight he needs all elements of the Republican coalition built by Ronald Reagan:

"Whether you're a fiscal conservative, whether you're a social conservative, whether you're a Tea Party patriot," Perry said, and then halted. Looking to his right, at his parents Ray and Amelia Perry in the crowd, Perry added, "Heck, Daddy, if you're a disgruntled conservative Democrat, we welcome you to help us. ... We're glad you are in the game and making a difference."

The votes are all counted. Dallas lawyer Clay Jenkins and Dallas County Schools Board President Larry Duncan are headed for a runoff.

With 100 percent of the votes counted, Jenkins got 49.8 percent, while Duncan had 29.7 percent of the vote.

Also, Jim Foster blamed voter fraud for his third-place finish in the Democratic race for county judge.

"I was concerned about the high number of mail ballots," said Foster, who was joined by a tiny band of supporters at the Belmont Hotel in Oak Cliff. "The number of mail ballots indicates there was fraud."

Foster said he has contacted the U.S. Attorney to complain about election irregularities.

Meantime, the Democratic race for Dallas County Judge is being dominated by civil lawyer Clay Jenkins.

With a little more than 100 precincts left to count, Jenkins had 50.09 percent of vote. If that total holds, he'll win the race without a runoff.

Dallas County Schools Board President Larry Duncan was second incumbent Jim Foster was a distant third.

Jenkins said he was hopeful that his lead would hold.

"We had a great Election Day campaign," he said.

The winner of the Democratic primary will face Republican Wade Emmert in November.

Emmert ran unopposed in the GOP primary.

WASHINGTON--U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, tonight issued the following statement regarding the results of today's Republican Primary:

Sen. John Cornyn, Texas' junior senator and head of the Republicans' Senate campaign committee, issued a statement congratulating Gov. Rick Perry and urging party unity -- including not only the Hutchison forces but also, he implies, the Tea Party folks.

Interestingly, the statement doesn't mention Hutchison and her future. He has said publicly that he hopes she remains in the Senate -- in part because the party wants to avoid having to worry, and spend money, defending the seat in a special election.

Here's his statement.

Strangely enough, Debra Medina -- clearly in 3d place -- hasn't conceded yet, while Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison has.

Hutchison left no doubt that she will support Gov. Rick Perry. She urged supporters to support him. Here's what she said:
"Now we must unite. We must win Texas for Republicans and our conservative principals in November.... A contested primary will naturally leave some hard feelings, but I ask my supporters tonight, all through Texas, to join me and unite behind Gov. Perry. That is what will be best, for all of us and for Texas. Our party must come together. We must put aside our differences. We must embrace the new people who have come into our party today and work to elect Republican leaders who will lead our state and our nation out of this recession."

Those differences are pretty big. There's no love lost between Perry and Hutchison, and plenty of her supporters aren't and never have been big fans of the governor. But gestures like this can go a long way toward healing the wounds after this mudbath of a primary.