OPINION

We know that Hutchison lost to Perry statewide, but here's a surprise: She is losing at this point to him in Dallas County, her home turf. If that holds up, that will be a stunner. She also is losing to him in Harris County, pretty convincingly. Another bet I wouldn't have made a year ago is that she loses to Perry in the state's two biggest urban counties.

While awaiting election results, I just saw Sarah Palin do a standup comedy routine on the Leno show.

She shouldn't quit her day job. Then again, neither should Leno.

Here's a real wildcard race. George Clayton, a Dallas teacher, is leading longtime State Board of Education member Tincy Miller. She's been part of the board's more moderate faction. Clayton didn't come across as a conservative in our interview with him, but he did come across as unpredictable. If he holds on, this would be a shocker victory.

Another state race I'm keeping my eye on is Don McLeroy's State Board of Education seat. (He's the former chair of the board who was removed by the Texas Senate last year over his religious views; he self-identifies as a Christian fundamentalist and believes in a literal reading of Genesis, for example.)

He's being challenged by lobbyist Thomas Ratliff in the GOP primary; there's no Democrat running in the fall.

And the race is close. With 19 percent of precincts reporting, Ratliff is behind by a hair, 49.73 percent to 50.26 percent.

Updated at 10:04: With 62 percent of precincts reporting, Ratliff is ahead by a hair, 50.38 percent to 49.61 percent.

That's a headline most folks, including me, would not have bet on this time last year, especially by 9:30 on primary night. This was Hutchison's first defeat since she lost a congressional race in 1982, so I'm sure this one stings a lot.

She not only ran against a very good campaigner, but she ran headlong into the anti-Washington sentiment that health care and the growth of government has brought on. She is the first casualty in the backlash against Washington, which is odd in that she is a fairly conservative Republican.

Very classy. I thought she was generous in her comments, poised in her demeanor.

I also thought, frankly, that she conceded a bit prematurely. But perhaps her campaign sees a firm pattern via vote distribution that isn't yet apparent to those outside the organizations. (Then again, wouldn't it be awful to concede and then a couple of hours later see your opponent's lead dip by 2 or 3 percent - just enough to toss it into a runoff?)

Now that Harris County finally got off the dime, we have a fairly complete early voting picture for the state:

Perry 52.79%, Hutchison 30.48%, Medina 16.72%

Back to predictions from yesterday, I'm not wrong yet. Based on the Colleen theory, though, I will be.

Remember, her forecast had us in a runoff if Perry wasn't in the mid- to high-50s after early voting.

Your view so far?

Update: With about 13 percent counted, Perry has lost about four-tenths of a percentage point, still at 52 and change.

Final update: Whaddya know? Hutchison concedes.

I went to see my wife at the school she teaches at this afternoon before reporting to work. Her school is a polling place. As I pulled up it looked like the property had been flooded by a see of red Cindy Burkett signs. That was before I saw Cindy smiling from the big sign at the parking lot entrance or the two Cindy supporters holding signs in the parking lot waving at me.

Looks like all of that signage is paying off. Burkett has a commanding lead in the race for state representative in District 101. She may even avoid a runoff.

It's 10 p.m. and Collin County is still reporting early voting numbers. What gives?

Updated 10:18

Election results were delayed Tuesday night in Collin County, where officials said voting was extremely heavy.
At some polling places, people waited in line more than hour, said Patty Seals, assistant county elections administrator. And some polls still had people waiting in line to vote at 7 p.m., when the polls are supposed to close. Those people were allowed to vote.

"A lot of locations probably could have used more [voting] machines," Seals said.
The county's highest-profile race was the Republican primary for county judge, and first-term incumbent Keith Self led John Muns in early voting. The winner will face Democrat David Smith in the fall. He had no opposition in his party's primary.

One of the things I truly enjoy about my job is getting to know the judicial candidates. In the primaries, it's especially fun because you get a sense you can really help make a difference when you research these folks and make recommendations. I'm glad to say that in early voting, nine of the 10 judicial candidates we recommended are leading.

Update 8:36 p.m.: This remains true. The only race where our recommended candidate is not winning is in the race that features Dale Tillery, a former State House member with a knack for politics, versus a very capable judge swept out in the Blue Wave of 2006. We recommended that judge, David Kelton.

So far, Tea Party candidates are drawing about 15 percent of the vote in gubernatorial, congressional and legislative races. That's not so impressive when you go back and look at data from the 2006 GOP primaries. Challengers to incumbents often drew much higher than that. In fact, my quick review led me to think that most all GOP challengers drew at least 15 percent. The serious ones, like some that Tom Craddick got to run against GOP incumbents that had opposed him, did considerably better.

The night is young, so the data may change. But the Tea Party at this point is not making much of a splash.

Two interesting statewide races. Victor Carrillo is losing to Porter for Texas Railroad Commissioner (60%-40%) and Kinky Friedman is losing to Hank Gilbert by roughly 9 percentage point margin.

Normally, incumbent RR commissioners don't lose primaries.Although the editorial board recommended him almost by default, we've sharply criticized Carrillo, current commission chairman, for his lack of leadership on the removal of potentially dangerous natural gas couplings and have disagreed with him on several other issues.

Porter has been campaigning against White House policies and has vowed to raise the awareness of the oil and gas industry. He's not been very specific about his plans but apparently something is connecting. Still really early, but surprising.

Kent Brockman of The Simpsons once said: "I've said it before and I'll say it again: democracy simply doesn't work." Proof that he may have been right? Justice of the Peace Thomas G. Jones and Dallas County Constables Derick Evans and Jaime Cortes are all leading comfortably.

Too harsh? As our editorial pointed out:

Evans and Cortes face criminal and civil probes into questionable vehicle towing and employment practices, including numerous allegations that current or former deputies encountered threats or retaliation for not writing enough tickets, towing enough cars or campaigning to re-elect their bosses. And despite 18 years in office, Jones continues to draw state sanctions and public complaints for a sloppily run court.

Residents in these southern Dallas precincts deserve better - public servants who will inspire greater confidence. For those reasons, we suggest that voters carefully consider these Democratic primary challengers. (None of these races have Republicans on the ballot.)

I voted in Democratic Precinct #3340 this morning, and as I pulled in to the parking lot of my polling place, there stood Eric Johnson's wife. She handed out a flier for her husband, and stapled to it was a notice that she was running for precinct chair.

I'd like to think this is part of an effort to show the couple's commitment to building up support from the grassroots. But I wonder if other District 100 voters will see it the same way.

(And a side note: I voted at 11:30 this morning and was voter No. 12. Twelve!)

Update at 7:26 p.m.: Johnson leads in early voting, with 70.25 percent to Hodge's 29.75 percent.

Great race. It pits a former Army Ranger whose base is McKinney against a Plano developer and long-time school board member.

This contest is backwards from many of the Tea Party insurgencies that aim to unseat profligate incumbents.

The anti-tax government buster in this one is the incumbent. Muns has tried to appear as tough on taxes as Self, but good luck there. It's like KBH trying to out-Rick Perry Rick Perry.

Our newspaper's recommendation was Muns, but I'm betting Self. Any takers?

Background: Collin County went 62 percent for McCain-Palin in 2008.

Based on early voting numbers, Texas House District 102 could turn into a rout. Stefani Carter, a conservative, Harvard-educated lawyer who also is African American is way ahead of Geoff Bailey, whose ties to Boone Pickens and youth (26) might be hurting him. Carter did not interview well with the editorial board. She spent a lot of time not answering questions and not offering specifics on anything.

However, she is seen as the GOP's hope to win back the seat in the fall from Carol Kent, who ousted veteran Republican lawmaker Tony Goolsby in 2008. Carter said as much during the editorial board interview, adding that it would take a woman to beat Kent.

This district includes parts of North Dallas, Lake Highlands and Garland.
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I'm thinking Johnson wins in the Democratic primary for state House District 100, and more easily than expected.

But is that my heart or my head talking?

What do you think? Percentages anybody?

Update at 6:54: I posted this before reading Sharon's post below. That one's worth reading before commenting here....

Building off Michael's post below, let me ask a variation of same. What's your most honest Jim Foster prediction in the Democratic primary for the Dallas County judgeship?

(I could get really microcosmic and ask for a three-way Foster-Jenkins-Duncan prediction, but because I'm basically a kind person I won't go to such lengths. Feel free to extrapolate in this direction, though, if you like. Anybody expect a runoff?)

My prediction for Foster? 20 percent.
(No runoff. Jenkins wins.)

I knew it was unlikely that 100th District voters would give Eric Johnson a chance to represent them if they could keep Terri Hodge in Austin. But then came the Hodge plea deal, and I began to hope things might really change.

After all, if Terri Hodge is re-elected, she can't serve. (For those who haven't been following this contest, Hodge pleaded guilty to a role in the massive City Hall corruption case and, as part of the plea deal, she can't return to Austin.)

Some local leaders threw their support to Johnson -- DA Craig Watson supported him from the outset ... others such as Rafael Anchia turned to him after the Hodge plea deal. Meanwhile, Diane Ragsdale and Sandra Crenshaw continued to encourage voters to go for Hodge -- in hopes that anyone other than Johnson would win. (If Hodge is elected, precinct chairs will select Hodge's replacement.)

My money has remained on Johnson ... until this. Sam Merten does an excellent job explaining what so many people who live north of Interstate 30 don't understand: The Fear Factor. That is, the very real fear among older residents of the district that the city is moving toward a gentrification program and they will lose the homes they own.

As Merten points out, it doesn't matter whether the fear's true or not, it's out there. And what concerns me is that Dallas County Democratic Party chair Darlene Ewing says she expects Johnson to lose because of that fear.

I hope she's wrong. But reading some of the comments on Unfair Park, I suspect she's correct.

From earlier, when I asked for predictions of tomorrow's top headline, I got a lot of Medina boosterism in the comments. But really, seriously, all boosterism aside, I'm curious. What percentage of the vote do you expect Medina to get? I expect 18 percent. I think she'll fall just short of the 20 percent that she hit in some polls.

I'm just curious, Medina supporters, at what percentage will you declare her candidacy a success? Below what benchmark would you consider it a failure?

Happy Texas Independence Day from Brussels! Know that I did my best to represent the Lone Star State here in Europe - I wore Texas flag cufflinks during a visit to NATO's headquarters today. I also spent the lunch hour arguing with a Greek colleague about whether Greece or Texas had a richer cultural heritage. Clearly, Texas won - Davy Crockett is so much cooler than Zeus.

I was also mighty proud when a NATO official praised Texas, raving about a recent visit by NATO officials to the state and how impressed they were. Apparently Texas still manages to wow with its hospitality, BBQ and the-bigger-the-better approach to life.

Anyone who has known me for more than a minute knows I am from Dallas, Texas. And proud of it.

But as people become more mobile (as more Yankees from New Jersey move to Dallas and as Texans move to places like Denver), I wonder what will come of Lone Star pride. Sure, it's fun to wear boots, brag about our history and take visitors to the rodeo.

However, what's behind the swagger? Why are you proud to be Texan? Is Texas really unique? Are we actually that different from, say, New Yorkers?

I think Texans are still unique. Maybe not as unique as we like to think, but yes, we are still special.

When talking to Europeans, I often say that Texas is America on steroids. It's not that Texans are drastically different from other folks in the U.S., we just take everything to the next level. Molly Ivins once wrote that Texas' motto should be: "Too much Is not enough, and wretched excess is even more fun."

God bless Texas!

My job as an outside sales rep requires that I drive the streets of Dallas daily. I am utterly amazed at the condition of these streets. This should be an absolute embarrassment.

I do not want to hear about budget cuts. I want to know where all the federal and state money is going. I want to hear that our license registration money is allocated for these streets.

These roads are not going to fix themselves. With the ever-increasing traffic, we do not need cutbacks. This problem affects everyone, except those who are wealthy enough to fly to work in a helicopter. Even then, you have to drive these streets to get to the heliport.

Where are our city officials and state Legislature when we need them?

They must have run into one of our deeper potholes en route. No doubt they were coming to discuss how to make the Trinity River bottom like that of San Antonio's River Walk.

Let me solve that problem. Just fill the potholes with water, and you have some instant water attractions.

Re: "Get ready for big cuts, departments told -- Police and fire services aren't exempt; property tax hike batted around," Tuesday news story.

That any city would consider a property tax increase -- or any other tax increase -- while the economy continues to falter is astounding.

Have officials not made the connection? The "steep decline in sales tax revenues" means that there's been an equally steep decline in sales and services. Citizens have less money, not more.

There are fewer wage-earners per household now. Family income is down. Hours have been curtailed. Self-employed people wait anxiously for the phone to ring. Folks on commission are hurting. Contract workers and casual laborers are idle. Investments aren't producing. Drivers think twice about using a toll road.

How can a city presume to ask for more in taxes? Raising taxes in this climate does not produce more money. Raising taxes just forces everyday folks to shift money away from the pressing obligations they already have. The increased tax burden becomes an additional facet of the problem, not a solution.

Re: "Officers in crashes are often unbuckled -- Many in Texas cite need to get out of car quickly, control violent prisoners," Sunday news story.

Police departments might want to try out the seat belts and shoulder harnesses used in military aircraft.

Shoulder harness straps come over each shoulder and buckle into the seat belt mid-body at the seat belt release point. Seat belts are released, along with the shoulder harnesses, mid-body with one hand and with one rapid motion. The occupant is freed.

Military aircraft seat belts and shoulder harnesses even work underwater. I know from experience.

Normally, I don't get into the Winter Olympics, but I really did this year, watching every night. I even watched curling and ice dancing -- in front of other people.

After the final ceremonies, I tried to determine why I had this newfound interest in an event that I had largely ignored over the years. I could come to only one conclusion -- it was the weather.

It's hard to get jazzed up about the frigid Winter Olympics when you just finished washing your car in 70-plus-degree weather wearing jeans, a T-shirt and flip-flops. The transition is just too much.

This year, however, it was different. Our weather on some days didn't look too much different than the weather at the Winter Olympics. The fantasy was complete!

If you voted in the primary elections, the election worker didn't offer you a Libertarian Party or Green Party ballot.

Why? The Texas Election Code prohibits us from holding a primary if our gubernatorial candidate in the previous election cycle did not garner a large enough percentage of the vote.

But in the minds of many voters, the primary process is what legitimizes a party.

This is one of several ways that Democrats and Republicans rig the laws to keep us marginalized and to ensure that voters do not perceive that they have another choice.

It seems that Democrats and Republicans are afraid to compete in a truly free marketplace of ideas.

Re: "Starbucks stuck in crossfire of gun-toting and gun-control groups -- Some protest chain's acceptance of those testing open-carry laws," Monday news story.

The insecure, paranoid people who feel it necessary to parade around with their guns on display have more problems than they are aware of.

Whenever possible, I will avoid places these people frequent. Normal people do not need deadly weapons on their person to feel confident and secure.

Re: "1 man's move idles 2,000, cuts aid," Tuesday news story.

Democrats pounced on Republican Sen. Jim Bunning and his party for "obstructionist politics," and Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood was quoted as saying, "I am keenly disappointed that political games are putting a stop to important construction projects."

What the article does not make clear is that, after massive deficit spending, Democrats have resurrected pay-go, the rule that every spending bill in Congress must be matched by an off-setting cut or tax to pay for the spending.

This rule was signed by President Barack Obama on Feb.12. This is the first spending bill to come before the Senate after pay-go was signed into law, and the Senate majority tried to have this spending exempted from its own rule.

Bunning is trying to put a finger into the dyke to stem the flood of red ink, which the Senate majority cannot seem to do.

Democrats term this "political games" and "obstructionist."

We're getting geared up in the Editorial Department for a long evening, as we write off of all the election results tonight:

1. GOV -- We comment on outcome of last night's gubernatorial primaries. We seek to cast the debate forward and offer analysis spelling out how the winners (if there are no runoffs) can best serve voters going forward from here into the general election. Colleen writing on behalf of the board.

2. LOCAL -- We'll watch for -- and comment on -- the most important local development(s) of the evening. Tod writing on behalf of the board.

3. TEAPARTY - Did the Tea Partiers make inroads or did they fall flat? We go into the election with a list of key races we're watching and look for a pattern of success or failure and comment accordingly. Bill writing on behalf of the board.

As Michael noted earlier, we'll also be blogging tonight amid our writing and editing deadlines.

The Dallas Morning News Editorial Board will be blogging live tonight as results come in. As we put together tomorrow's editorials, we'll also be sharing our analysis in blog posts -- and we'll be reading your comments.

Join us.

And tell us now: What do you predict will be the big headline tomorrow?

Jim Bunning's jobs bill stunt has split the GOP, with moderates blasting his move and siding with the hundreds of thousands of Americans whose benefits will be delayed by this political gesture. What's interesting is that very few examples highlight the split in the GOP. Is it a moderate versus conservative split? Or is it prinsipled versus practical? Or, to turn back te clock, is it conservative versus compassionate conservative?

This libertarian streak running through the party, this notion that we should deny federal funds to make a point, it's the very same thing at play in Texas. Rick Perry is very much on the side of principled leadership. That sounds nice, but principles at the expense of solutions is not good leadership.

Locally, look at the Collin County judge race. You have a cheif executive of the county fighting bond elections for roads, on principle.

Principles are easy. The hard work comes when our shared principles come into conflict with one another. That's where leadership happens. Merely sticking to bromides is not leadership. It's ... Bunningism.

Just got this from a frustrated voter:

For the first time in 47 years I will not be voting. In Texas there no longer seems to be a two party system, especially not in Collin County. There does seem to be two parts of the Republican party, but neither express my views in any way , shape or form. I am in a sense along with many others, being disenfranchised as a voter. I know I could write in people, but that will not accomplish what is needed.

So for another 4 years I will probably be stuck with the same governor, congressman and others that I have voted against before. Yes, I could vote on the republican ticket, but they do not offer the alternative I crave. Plus, I do not want to be solicited by tons of republican advertisements and contribution requests when I do not support their agenda....so I don't want my voter card stamped that way.

Where is the middle of the road party?? Where are the conservative Democrats?? Where are some republicans willing to work for the good of the country instead of their own agenda?? Not on this ballot for sure.

Annabelle Brown, McKinney

Texas A&M-Commerce head football coach Guy Morris apparently told some of his players to steal copies of the campus newspaper because it contained a story about a football player being caught in a drug bust.

His only defense is that he doesn't really consider it stealing if it's a free newspaper. (It's free for one copy, 25 cents for every copy after that).

Morriss, a former Baylor coach, doesn't seem to realize the terrible lesson this teaches his players. Instead, he told police it was a great team-building exercise.

Such poor judgment should be rewarded with a lengthy job search.

I call your attention to the Wall Street Journal today: "Natural gas tilts at windmills in power feud" (gotta love the headlines).

It's behind a subscription wall, but here's the URL.

It's difficult to summarize, but this blog post from Smart Planet does a pretty good job. Apparently, the politics of power in Texas pits the natural gas producers and the growing wind power industry.

It's an interesting situation to watch.

Rick Perry stopped in Dallas last night for his final campaign stop before today's election. The crowd at Dallas County Republican headquarters on North Central Expressway numbered about 100 people, when you take out the journalists and Boy Scouts in attendance. Like Kay Hutchison's stop in Fort Worth last week at the Railhead Smokehouse, there was a pretty informal atmosphere, not one of those balloon-and-banners affairs with big risers.

Perry spoke from a lectern at the head of a drab white conference room and what struck me most about his speech was how few red-meat lines he included. Sure, there was his usual bashing of Washington, but it wasn't over the top. And the speech didn't have the kind of defiance we saw in Perry when he first started talking about states' rights last year in Austin. His speech largely was about fiscal responsibility and showing the rest of the country that Texas is a land of opportunity. The words "Kay Hutchison," "Debra Medina" or "Tea Party" didn't come up.

He was wrong on one point, however: He said that the education money the Obama administration is "dangling" in front of us through the Race to the Top fund would require Texas to sign onto national education standards. That's not so. Texas would not have received points on its Race to the Top application in the section that asks about participating in creating national benchmarks. But Texas would not have been required to adhere to national standards, an Education Department spokesman told me a few weeks ago. (Texas didn't apply for Race to Top funds.)

Now, back to the politics of the speech. Perhaps its themes reveal what we would hear from Perry in a fall campaign, if he wins today or in a runoff. A person I spoke with afterwards said he had heard this same speech four or five times and thought it resembled the themes that New Jersey's new GOP governor used in winning election there in November. Washington is too big and states can do it better. That's not a whole lot different than other Republican governors have said over time.

Delivery, of course, is key. If Perry wins, and delivers that speech over and over in a way that doesn't scare away independents and suburban moderates, he would make life tough for Bill White, the likely Democratic nominee. But if he starts ramping up the rhetoric about states' rights, he will scare away those swing voters who are glad we're way past the days of defiant southern governors.

One more observation: I had a long conversation with a couple of loyal Republicans at the event who said they really didn't know any Tea Partiers. They wondered if they were more classic libertarians, and wondered how deep this movement is. Their hunch was that it wasn't much broader than the 20-30 percent of Texas Republicans who are deeply conservative.

We will see. One of the folks I interviewed kind of summed it up for me when he said he couldn't wait to dig through the numbers after the election.