A Golden rule of developing prospects is, "Never move a player off a more valuable defensive position until he proves incapable of playing there at the Major League Level." This leaves the Texas Rangers in an enviable, but difficult position as they have a 10 win left-side of the infield and both the best third base and shortstop prospects in baseball. Jurickson Profar is untouchable, but Mike Olt has been discussed in a number of trade rumors. first, he was rumored to the Braves for shortstop Andrelton Simmons. More recently, Olt's name was thrown as a key piece in a package for Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. This leaves me questioning if the Rangers are working to sell high on the former UConn Husky. Read the rest of this entry »A week ago, I wrote up The 2012 Season In Slow Home Runs, which was actually The 2012 Season In The Slowest Pitches Hit For Home Runs. That would've been a much more accurate but much worse title. That just begged for a follow-up, and that's what this is, as we're now going to examine the fastest pitches hit for home runs during the year. Originally I was going to say the timing feels right since nothing is happening in baseball, but then the Pirates signed Francisco Liriano and the Rangers signed A.J. Pierzynski, so instead I'll say the timing feels right since nothing you care about is happening in baseball. This is a good time for frivolous reflection. Once again, what the title suggests is that we'd be looking at the fastest home runs off the bat, and we might do that later. That would be possible on account of the incredible and invaluable ESPN Home Run Tracker. In the event that I write up that list, I don't know what I'm going to title it since the obvious one's already kind of taken. Thankfully this stuff is entirely unimportant and it doesn't even need to be discussed out in the open on the front page of FanGraphs. You know how you can know I don't have a regular editor? This paragraph is how you can know that. Read the rest of this entry »To date, it hasn't been the offseason that the Texas Rangers wanted it to be. There's still plenty of time, and the team still has plenty of talent, but the Rangers have been looking to make a move of significance. Later Thursday, they were able to make one, locking up free-agent catcher A.J. Pierzynski. And more, while Pierzynski is coming off arguably the best season of his entire big-league career, the Rangers got him for one year and $7.5 million. While Pierzynski doesn't make the Rangers into something they weren't by himself, he fills a need with so little risk the Rangers could hardly afford not to sign him. With Geovany Soto and Eli Whiteside, the Rangers already had catchers, but they didn't have good catchers, or left-handed-hitting catchers with a fair amount of power. While it's presently unclear exactly how Pierzynski and Soto will split time, Pierzynski has exceeded 500 plate appearances in every season but one since 2003. In that one, he reached 497. Pierzynski has proven that he can handle an awful lot of work, and Soto just batted .198. Read the rest of this entry »The Pittsburgh Pirates have reportedly agreed to sign Francisco Liriano to a two year, $14 million contract. It's an interesting deal, and we'll talk about the specifics of Liriano and the Pirates in a second, but I first want to look at where this deal fits into an interesting off-season trend. From a runs allowed perspective, Francisco Liriano was terrible last year. Just like he was the year before, too. By RA9-wins, Liriano has basically been a replacement level pitcher for the last two years, putting up an ERA- of 127 over that span. Of the 109 pitchers who have thrown 250 or more innings since the start of the 2011 season, Liriano's ERA- ranks 104th. In terms of preventing runs, he's been better than only Chris Volstad, J.A. Happ, Derek Lowe, Josh Tomlin, and Brian Duensing. From a FIP perspective, though, Liriano has been a bit better. Not good, but better. We've got his WAR (based on walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed) over the last two years at +2.9, making him a below average -- but not abysmal -- starter. Liriano's stuff and peripherals suggest that he should get better results going forward than he's gotten in the past. And if his stuff and peripherals are right, then 2/14 for Liriano could easily be a bargain for the Pirates. Read the rest of this entry »The Cubs agreed to terms with 29-year-old career swingman Carlos Villanueva on Wednesday. With Scott Baker's early season availability in question as he rehabs from April Tommy John surgery, Villanueva should have a chance at making the club's opening day rotation. Villanueva showed promise in the rotation as myriad Blue Jays injuries opened a spot for him in Toronto. In his first 11 starts, spanning 65.1 innings, Villanueva held opponents to just a 3.03 ERA as he notched 65 strikeouts against 17 walks (3.8 K/BB). But questions about Villanueva as a starter lingered even in early September. Alex Anthopolous hardly gave his player a vote of confidence when asked about his starting chops on September 12th, according to John Lott of the National Post: “I don’t want to use a term that’s derogatory to the player,” he said. “I don’t want to doubt him. But I have to also be objective and realistic too.” Read the rest of this entry »Value is an all-encompassing term comprised of performance relative to the position, league and readily available alternatives, as well as the price paid to acquire that production. It's also fueled by the utility of the player to the team in how he is used. A team can maximize value by using a player according to his strengths while masking his faults. However, if a team perceives a player incorrectly, it runs the risk of minimizing his value. This idea of maximizing strengths most often surfaces in the form of platoons. A lefty-crusher who struggles against righties won't face same-handed pitchers much in a straight platoon. The idea of perceiving a player incorrectly and minimizing his value occurs when teams incorrectly view a platoon player as an everyday starter. Which brings us to the free agent market, which still includes Cody Ross, Scott Hairston and Juan Rivera, three players best utilized as the lefty-crushing component of a platoon sandwich. Only Ross is viewed by many teams as an everyday starter -- valid to an extent -- and is seeking a contract commensurate with that view. While he could certainly start for several teams, his value is largely connected to his production against lefties, who only throw about 25% of the innings in a season. He is a better overall player than Hairston and Rivera, averaging ~2 WAR over the last four seasons, yet he is 32 years old and is reportedly seeking a deal in the 3/$24 vicinity. Given these factors, teams might find it more cost-effective to sign Hairston or Rivera for a strict platoon role. Assuming they are platooned with players that hit righties well, an interested team could eke out even more production. Read the rest of this entry »Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below is the second set of 2013's projections -- for the AL West champion Oakland Athletics. Don't hesitate to leave notes regarding format/presentation in the comments section, as the author frequently has no idea what he's doing.BattersWith his offseason acquisition of outfielder Chris Young (for Cliff Pennington and a minor leaguer), GM Billy Beane has created a good kind of the problem for the A's: four of the team's five best field players, per ZiPS -- and four of the five team's field players projected to record a WAR above 2.0 -- are outfielders. Coco Crisp and Young both have positive career UZRs in center field; Reddick has the same in right. All three have pretty large sample sizes at their respective positions. Yoenis Cespedes has neither decent fielding numbers nor a sample that requires us to weight said numbers heavily. Still, based on the defensive reputations of all four players, it wouldn't be shocking to see a lineup with Cespedes at DH and the other three playing the outfield. Outside of that quadrumvirate -- and newly signed Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima (about whom Jeff Sullivan recently made some shockingly intelligent comments) -- ZiPS sees mostly pieces, but little impact. Read the rest of this entry » As facts about Kendrys Morales go, here are a few of them. On Wednesday, Morales was traded from the Angels to the Mariners in exchange for Jason Vargas. Morales is and has always been a switch-hitter as a professional. Morales began switch-hitting when he was 12 years old, and the right side is his natural side. That is, Morales naturally bats right-handed, and he had to learn how to swing as a lefty. Every switch-hitter starts off with a natural side, but what's interesting about the Morales case is this: Career as a lefty: 127 wRC+ Career as a righty: 84 wRC+ Read the rest of this entry »Josh Hamilton got $125 million. B.J. Upton got $75 million. Angel Pagan got $40 million. Shane Victorino got $39 million. Melky Cabrera got $16 million. And Michael Bourn, the best center fielder still on the board — at this point, he's probably the best free agent position player left, period — is still waiting for the right offer. In the meantime, many other teams that looked like a good fit for him have filled center field with another player: the Nationals traded for Denard Span, the Phillies traded for Ben Revere, the Athletics traded for Chris Young. In the meantime, bloggers like Martin Gandy of Talking Chop, the SBNation Braves blog, are starting to wonder whether Bourn will need to take a one-year offer and wait 'til next year for his payday. So did Bourn wait too long? Did Scott Boras, gasp!, make a mistake? Read the rest of this entry » Last winter, I was flummoxed at the league's apparent lack of interest in Edwin Jackson. He'd just put up his third straight solid season at age 27, and had established himself as a durable, effective +3 to +4 win starter. Unfortunately, in that post, I made a pretty bad assumption: Someone’s going to get a steal with Edwin Jackson, and given what he’s likely to do for the price he’s going to cost, the signing team should probably want to lock him in at these rates for the next few years. From Jackson’s perspective, he’s just been given a thorough rejection in his efforts to land a long term contract in a market where he should have been a pretty well sought after commodity, so he shouldn’t expect that posting another 200 inning season with a decent ERA will land him a raise next winter. Guess what? Jackson posted another 200 inning season with a decent ERA and now he's landing a huge raise, as the Cubs are reportedly set to sign him to a four year, $52 million contract. Read the rest of this entry »The easy thing is talking about what Josh Hamilton has done. For his career, he's hit .304, with 161 dingers. Last year, his WAR was 4.4, and before that it was 4.1, and before that he won the American League MVP. Hamilton just signed a substantial contract with the Angels, and the season most relevant to the Angels during negotiations would've been Hamilton's 2012. Hamilton started impossibly strong and cooled off, finishing with excellent numbers overall. If the Angels didn't think Josh Hamilton is excellent, they wouldn't have guaranteed him an eighth of a billion dollars. The harder thing is talking about what Josh Hamilton will do, precisely because we don't and can't know. We can only try to guess, based on what we assume to be relevant information, and when talking about Hamilton's future -- which everybody's tried to do -- it seems worthwhile to take a closer look at those 2012 trends. For some time, Hamilton was practically impossible to pitch to. Then he became easy to pitch to, at least relative to the earlier version of himself. Random statistical fluctuation, or something the Angels ought to be thinking about? Read the rest of this entry »The Orioles -- and to some extent, the Royals -- have sworn off the cutter. Now it looks like the Red Sox are eschewing the slider. The curveball is probably bad for you. If you throw the changeup one way, you might be at risk for injury. We're years ahead of a stream of knuckleball copycats, and there's only one screwball pitcher in the big leagues. Maybe one day we'll find those pitches lead to injury, too. Maybe using any pitch too much is a problem? Read the rest of this entry »I had abbreviated looks at two more Blue Jays hitters with big, recent international bonuses and am tossing in the one pitcher with some prospect standing from the game I saw of the Red Sox. All three of these players have big bonuses, tools and expectations, but little experience in organized minor league games. Two of the highest recent bonuses from the July 2 market have been handed out to hitters but the Blue Jays in 2B/CF Franklin Barreto (2012) and SS Dawel Lugo (2011). Barreto signed for $1.45 million, one of the top bonuses in the first year of fixed international bonus pools while Lugo signed for $1.3 million last season under the old rules. Barreto won’t be 17 until spring training, is the equivalent of a high school junior and is actually younger than most of the top prep prospects for the 2014 draft. I point that out so you realize how much more projection is necessary to see what he’ll become and I’m guessing his age is a reason that Barreto barely even played in instructs. He obviously has plenty of instruction to absorb and I only saw him in part of one game. Read the rest of this entry »Remember when the Playstation 2 came out, and then Sony released a newer, smaller version of the original Playstation, called the PSone? After that, people started calling the original Playstation console the PSX, or Playstation X. Today, we are going back to the original console version of the De-Lucker, so grab your nearest mint copy of Final Fantasy VII and buckle in! Why DLX?FanGraphs recently re-did how we calculate wOBA for all the players. In an effort to give base-running its own stand-alone category and run/win value, we reduced wOBA to a hitting-only metric and took out SB and CS. That's where the problem with the De-Lucker 2.0. DL 2.0 used the Fielding Independent wOBA formula, which includes stolen bases. In order to keep things parallel, we now must revert back to the Should Hit formula -- essentially: 0.09 + 1.74(HR%) + 0.39(BB%) - 0.26(K%) + 0.68(BABIP)The De-Lucker part comes in when we plop an xBABIP in the place of yonder true BABIP. Jeff Zimmerman and Robert Boden (slash12) have been working on and promoting what I believe is the best xBABIP formula out there, so let us once again use that. Beneath the jump: More caveats! All sorts of data! Downloadable Excel spreadsheets! Fewer video game references! Read the rest of this entry »Table of ContentsHere's the table of contents for today's edition of Daily Notes. 1. Table: League's Top Changeups by Pitch-Type Runs, 20122. Action Footage: Three of Jason Vargas's Changeups3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Mexican Pacific LeagueTable: League's Top Changeups by Pitch-Type Runs, 2012As Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com was first to report on Wednesday, the Seattle Mariners have traded left-hander Jason Vargas (829.2 career IP, 5.9 WAR, 8.4 RA9-Wins) to the Angels for first baseman/designated hitter Kendrys Morales (1762 career PA, 6.0 WAR). As Jeff Sullivan noted not long after that, the trade mostly benefits both teams. "The Angels," writes Sullivan, "had too many bats and too few starting pitchers, so they traded a bat for a starting pitcher. The Mariners wanted a bat more than they wanted to keep one of their starting pitchers." Morales's best tool is his power, represented most succinctly by his .210 career ISO. Vargas's best tool is his changeup. Nor is Vargas's changeup his best pitch, it's also one of the best pitches in the league. Read the rest of this entry » Ryan Hanigan might be the most underrated catcher in baseball. He is definitely one of the most studious and verbose. The 32-year-old Cincinnati Red knows the game, and he can break down the nuances of his craft -- and his pitching staff -- with the best of them. Signed by the Reds as a non-drafted free agent in 2002, Hanigan made his big-league debut five years later and has since become a stalwart on both sides of the ball. A well-above-average defensive catcher who threw out 48 percent of runners trying to steal this year, he boasts a .370 lifetime OBP. Hanigan recently addressed a number of subjects, including where he hits in the batting order, who has the nastiest stuff on the staff, and the challenges Aroldis Chapman will face as a starting pitcher. ------ David Laurila: Do you pay attention to advanced stats? Ryan Hanigan: I have an understanding of sabermetrics and a lot of the terms people are using to categorize what matters, and is what is actually going on. There’s definitely something to it, so I’ve thought about it in terms of the type of player I’ve been, and what I’m trying to become. It factors in to the organization’s perception of you, as well as Major League Baseball’s. Some of the new stats are more tangible, at least to the stat-specific people of this world. Baseball is moving more towards that, although there are obviously still a lot of people who don’t believe in that stuff. They look at things more old-school. DL: As a guest on Ken Broo‘s Sunday morning sports show [AM-700 WLW] I’ve suggested you hit second in Dusty Baker’s batting order. What are your thoughts on that? RH: There’s logic to it. That said, I’m paid to play and the decision, ultimately, isn’t for me to make. That’s up to the manager. Dusty is going to hit me where he wants to hit me, and the last thing I want to do is step on anybody’s toes. It’s not my job to try to change the status quo. At the same time, the type of hitter I am… I’ve always considered myself a good hitter. Read the rest of this entry » The acquisition of Josh Hamilton gave the Angels what they wanted, but it also left the Angels with a little problem: between Peter Bourjos, Mark Trumbo, and Kendrys Morales, they had too many good players for too few spots. This was, as they say, a nice problem to have, and the Angels also felt they had a need for another innings-eating starting pitcher. So in a move surprising only because it went down between two teams in the same division, the Angels and Mariners have exchanged Morales and Jason Vargas, straight up. With one move, the Angels solved two perceived problems. The whole trade is simple. It's easy to understand, like an example transaction in Trading 101. The Angels had too many bats and too few starting pitchers, so they traded a bat for a starting pitcher. The Mariners wanted a bat more than they wanted to keep one of their starting pitchers. Morales didn't fit in one place and he does fit in the other. Morales has one year left until free agency, and he's projected to make just under $5 million. Vargas has one year left until free agency, too, and he's projected to make just over $7 million. There are no prospects, no cash considerations, no players to be named later. Few transactions are this uncomplicated. Read the rest of this entry »There's no denying the Seattle Mariners have a number of infield options on the farm primed to push incumbents at the major-league level in the next year or two. In 2012, Brad Miller, Nick Franklin and Stefen Romero left strong impressions in Double-A. And while I don't question the three as future big leaguers, are they true upgrades over what's already in Seattle? Read the rest of this entry » |