BUSINESS

The Dallas-area is among the U.S. markets with the largest declines in average apartment rent, according to a new report from Internet marketing firm RentJungle.com.
Overall Dallas rents have dropped by about $94 or 8 percent in the last six months, RentJungle said.
Nashville and Denver had the largest, 9 percent, declines in the rent survey. Along with Dallas, rents in Phoenix, Los Angeles and Louisville were also down 8 percent.
Rents were up slightly in Wichita, Indianapolis , Miami and Memphis.
RentJungle says that nationwide average rents have fallen about $40 a month during the last six months - a drop of 4 percent.

A closely watched gauge of future development activity showed a sharp decline in January.
The American Institute of Architects' Architecture Billing Index fell by almost three points last month, indicating further declines in construction design services.
"Projects are being delayed or cancelled because lending institutions are placing unusually stringent equity requirements on new developments," AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker said. "This is even happening to financially sound companies with strong credit ratings."
The industry finds that the billing index closely reflects what construction spending will be doing in nine to 12 months.

Forget about the Great Recession. The economic cataclysm we just lived through should be called the Great Panic.

So says Dana Johnson, Comerica Inc.'s chief economist. The recession's signature events were declines in employment and business investment that were much greater than historical experience would have suggested, he says. Fueling the declines was widespread panic - and not just in the financial markets.

What is far less discussed, however, is that the turmoil in the financial markets provoked panic in the non-financial business sector. The massive disruptions of credit flows triggered fears that the U.S. economy could be headed for an extended period of recession that might resemble the 1930s. Business leaders reacted by cutting payrolls and fixed capital spending far more aggressively than usual.

During the recession, the economy shrank 3.8 percent, Johnson said, which is just a hair more than the contraction in the 1957-58 recession. But employment fell 6.1 percent, compared with a 4.6 percent decline in 1957-58.

About 15 percent of Dallas-area homeowners with mortgages owed more than their house was worth at the end of 2009.
But that's much better than the national average of almost 24 percent of U.S. home loan holders who are underwater with their debt, according to a new report from First American CoreLogic.
The situation is even worse in some states.
In Nevada, about 70 percent of home mortgage holders are upside down with their housing values compared to debt.
And in Arizona, more than 51 percent of homeowners with loans have negative equity.
In Texas, the negative equity rate was about 12 percent.
Homeowners who owe more than their house is worth are much more likely to let the property fall into foreclosure, adding to the downward pressure on home values.

The U.S. Small Business Administration will host six free "Youthpreneur" Webinars this week to celebrate National Entrepreneurship Week.

Budding entrepreneurs can learn the basics of entrepreneurship, business strategies, the importance of credit scores and using social networking to advance business ideas. The Webinars will take place at 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. CT on Tuesday through Thursday.

Here are the Webinars:

• Tuesday: Jennifer Matthews, president of Creating Financial Literacy, on "Why My Credit Score Matters Now," at 10 a.m. and Vince Shorb, president of the National Youth Financial Educator's Council, on "Financial Education/Entrepreneurship" at 2 p.m.
• Wednesday: Steven Harris, president of JS Investment Group, on "Youth Entrepreneurship and Financial Literacy at 10 a.m. and Michael Simmons, co-founder of Extreme Entrepreneurship Tour, on "Why Every Student Should Be an Entrepreneur" at 2 p.m.
• Thursday: Shonika Proctor, chief executive of Renegade CEO's, on "Me...Myself...and Why? A Business Roadmap for Determined Teens Who are Making Their Way" at 10 a.m. and Jason Duff, founder of Community Storage & Properties Ltd., on "How to Leverage Top Internet Tools to Grow and Market Your Business at No Cost" at 2 p.m.

To access the Webinars, go to www.ReadyTalk.com. Click "join a meeting" and enter access code 3761101. Then dial 866-740-1260 and enter access code 3761101 followed by the # key.

Texas manufacturing activity cooled off in February, according to a report released Monday by the Dallas Fed.

Factory production continued to expand this month but at a slower pace than last month, according to the Dallas Fed's monthly survey of Texas manufacturers.

Moreover, several survey indicators actually slipped into negative territory, "reversing recent months' improvements," the Dallas Fed said.

Shipments and growth rate of orders both turned negative. So did new orders, with the share of survey respondents reporting decreases in new orders tripled in February from the month before.

The employment index edged farther down into negative territory. The company outlook index - which reflects respondents' views on their own companies' prospects - turned negative after positive readings in recent months.

The number of people looking online at homes for sale jumped by almost 38 percent in the Dallas area in January from the previous month, the National Association of Realtors reports.
Out of the 143 markets that the trade group tracks, the biggest increase in Internet home searches was in Santa Fe, N.M., where web searches rose 52.5 percent. The Monmouth-Ocean area of New Jersey was the second fastest growing location for Internet home shoppers, up about 49 percent last month.
The Realtors' survey is based on traffic on the popular Realtor.com website.

Please take a read over at the Energy and Environment blog about what I've found out about premium gas prices.

Gas prices overall aren't all that bad compared to the spikes we saw in 2008. The idea is that since we're all driving less and using less gas, the supply of premium gas has fallen as refiners look to cook more regular gas. The price gap between regular and premium unleaded is what caught my eye - that gap seems to have widened considerably in recent weeks. What have you folks noticed?

Statewide construction volumes are expected to increase this year - mostly due to a rebound in homebuilding.
McGraw-Hill Construction is forecasting a 16 percent rise in Texas construction starts in 2010. The biggest building gain will be in Austin - about 30 percent. In Dallas, construction starts are expected to rise 16 percent.
The statewide forecast calls for a 31 percent increase in single-family home construction this year.
Nonresidential building is expected to fall 1 percent.

Dan S. Petty, current president and Chief Executive Officer of the NTC, will assume a consulting role in the group that researches regional economic issues and tries to promote the good stuff happening around North Texas as an economic engine. Here's a snippet from their release:

The NTC is undergoing a strategic plan to make the organization more focused to be the leading advocate for the North Texas Region. Established to guide the regional collaboration efforts to build DFW International Airport, the organization has remained on the forefront of key regional issues such as water, clean air and transportation.

"Dan has been an instrumental leader in the North Texas region and the North Texas Commission for over two decades directing us in projects including the successful Super Bowl XLV bid, our support efforts with DFW International Airport and establishing Leadership North Texas," said Wendy Lopez, NTC Chairman and Vice President of URS Corporation. "We are appreciative that Dan has agreed to remain on the team through the leadership transition."

So watch for more news from NTC as they pick their next leader.

Five Texas-based companies made the Women's Business Enterprise National Council's annual list of U.S. companies that create level playing fields for women-owned businesses to compete for corporate contracts.

The Texas-based companies are: AT&T Inc., Dell, Energy Future Holdings, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell Oil Co.

The Council announced the list of a record 21 companies for 2009 on Thursday. The other companies on the list are: Accenture, Alcatel-Lucent, Avis Budget Group Inc., Chevron, Ernst & Young, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, Manpower, Marriott International Inc., Microsoft, Office Depot, PepsiCo Inc., Pfizer Inc., Home Depot, UPS and Verizon.

WBENC president Linda Denny said the 21 companies have outstanding supplier diversity programs with measurable results in business partnerships with women-owned businesses.

The Council's Southwest regional chapter, called Women's Business Council Southwest, is based in Arlington.

Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher is scheduled to give a speech right now, talking about "Roadblocks to recovery." According to the advance text of the speech, he's got some harsh words for Congressional bills that would, in Fisher's view, curtail the Fed's independence.

Here's Fisher on the aftermath of the "hellish economic downturn:"

As to the economy, there remain many roadblocks that must be overcome before we will be able to breathe easy again. Businesses must develop sufficient confidence in the future to begin expanding their order books and their payrolls. Banks must be willing and able to lend again. Consumers must regain their wherewithal and the confidence to open their pocketbooks.

To be sure, we are seeing some signs of improvement on all these fronts, however hesitant they might be in the incipient stages of a recovery.

But there remain two significant obstacles threatening the ability of consumers and businesses to cast off their hesitancy. The first is widespread concern about our nation's fiscal predicament. The second is the risk that Congress will seek to politicize the Federal Reserve.

He goes on to warn about the dangers of looming deficits, especially because of expected spending on Medicare and, to a lesser extent, Social Security.

Wells Fargo came out with its latest report on the Texas economic outlook this week, and here's what economists Eugenio Aleman and Mark Vitner have to say:

The drag from the U.S. and global recessions on the Texas economy appears to have abated. Most of the state's key economic indicators have posted some improvement during recent months, even though most still remain well into negative territory on a year-to-year basis. We believe the recession ended around the middle of 2009 nationwide, and the Lone Star State appears to have turned the corner at about the same time. There are still plenty of storm clouds on the horizon, however. While the national economy saw exceptionally strong real GDP growth during the fourth quarter, much of that growth was due to a swing in business inventories, which is hard to isolate at the state level. That said, Texas is clearly seeing some short-term benefit from the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus put in place this past year. The real test, for both the nation and Texas, will be what happens once this stimulus winds down around the middle of the year?

Aleman and Vitner also noted that "manufacturing appears to be poised for at least some modest improvement during 2010." But they also said manufacturers won't boost payrolls and capital spending until they're convinced the recovery is sustainable.

They expect oil and gas drilling and technology investment (semiconductors, biomedical, telecom) to be among the drivers of growth for Texas.

Also, the state's payroll employment is apt to rise by 1.2 percent, they said, producing a net gain of about 120,000 jobs. By contrast, the economy probably shed about 300,000 jobs last year. (The Texas Workforce Commission says the total was 276,000; the Dallas Fed says it was about 335,000. Revised data are scheduled for release on March 4.)

Don't know if you saw in our sports section today, but the Dallas Stars aren't exactly lighting the lamp in the revenue department.

Current -- and possibly soon-to-be former -- owner Tom Hicks said that were his team to make a payroll budget based on just the revenue the Stars get from this market, it would be $33 million.

The salary cap where many of the teams are at right now is nearly $57 million a year.

Anybody else just floored by these numbers? Dallas/Fort Worth has nearly 2,000 companies based here - 30-plus Fortune 500 companies alone and is outperforming the rest of the country from a financial perspective according to nearly every metric. And that's all the revenue the Stars can wring from this market?

What does this say about a team like... Tampa Bay? Which just got sold last week. Let me tell you, I've worked in Tampa Bay - there's NOTHING THERE in terms of corporate presence. There's lots of sports fans and a few hockey fans, but the stadium naming rights are owned by the newspaper, for crying out loud.

If someone wants to make a case to contract teams in the NHL, the set of revenue figures offered up by Hicks yesterday has to be Exhibit 1. If the Dallas Stars -- who Hicks refers to as the best of the Sun Belt hockey franchises -- required $85 million of Hicks' own cash just to stay on the ice, you've got to believe other teams are in substantially worse shape from a cash flow basis. We've already seen the Phoenix franchise file for Ch. 11: who's next?

I suppose the biggest question is back here in Dallas, which has plenty of sports fans. Is hockey never going to get real traction here? When the Stars were great, it sure seemed like Dallas liked hockey. It's going to take more than a typical recovery to turn those revenue figures around...

North Texas students interested in a graduate business degree may wonder which school to choose and how much it will cost.

Those and other questions can be answered today from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. at a free education fair at the University of Dallas' School of Management.

Potential MBA students can meet with business school officials from seven public universities as part of the national "MBA America Tour." The tour also will host panel discussions and alumni seminars. To register, go to http://tw0.us/6J0.

MBA directors from about a dozen public universities joined forces to sponsor the tour at time when the weak economy has forced students to explore many options, said Lisa Shatz, director of UT Dallas' full-time MBA program.

At UT Dallas, the participating business schools will be: the host school, Michigan State University, University of Arkansas, University of Houston, University of Missouri, University of North Texas and University of Oklahoma.

"We wanted to expose prospective students to some of the public MBA programs, and more importantly, we wanted to give them an opportunity to really explore their options," Shatz said. "One misnomer is that you can only get in-state rates if you go to school in your own state, which is not true. Another is that public universities are somehow less well-regarded when in actuality almost half of the top 50 MBA programs ranked by U.S. News & World Report are public."

The argument that the Texas economy outperformed the national average last year is a good one -- the state's payroll employment fell 2.6 percent, compared with a 3.1 percent decline in the nation as a whole.

The local picture is more mixed. Payroll employment fell 1.7 percent in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, for example, better than the national average. But employment dropped by 3.5 percent in Houston -- worse than the national average. (It's worth keeping in mind that all of these numbers will be revised in March, potentially significantly.)

But here's a weakness that affects both of Texas' largest metro areas: wages and salaries rose more slowly than in the nation as a whole.

Wages and salaries rose 0.5 percent for private industry workers in Dallas-Fort Worth last year, and 0.8 percent in Houston, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The national average was 1.4 percent.

The Texas cities' performance compared unfavorably with cities around the country. Wages and salaries rose by 1.4 percent in the Boston area, 1.1 percent in Detroit, 1.6 percent in Los Angeles, 1.4 percent in New York and 2 percent in Washington, D.C. Dallas and Houston did better than Atlanta, where wages and salaries were flat, and Phoenix, where wages and salaries fell 2.5 percent.

Total compensation costs rose 0.6 percent in both Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston, compared with a national average of 1.2 percent.

Then again, I consider myself living proof that it's better to take a pay cut than to lose your job. At least employment fell more slowly in Texas than in the nation as a whole.

The Dallas Fed says here that "global growth shows signs of improvement:"

Signs of a global recovery continue to appear around the world, particularly in the U.S. and emerging markets. Increases in output and international trade have allowed growth prospects for major economies to be revised up. However, rising commodity prices and stimulative monetary policies have caused inflationary pressures to build in emerging markets. Although monetary policy in most advanced economies remains accommodative, the run-up of public debt could stymie economic growth.

That's important for Texas because of the state's large export sector. The state may be getting a lift already. Between January and November last year, Texas exports fell 18 percent, according to WiserTrade. But in November alone, shipments abroad actually rose 4 percent compared with the same month the year before.

The recession has been tough on charities, as Americans scale back expenses of all kinds amid the hard times. According to a December report by Indiana University's Center on Philanthropy, "Charities face a sobering environment for charitable giving this holiday season despite their perceptions that the giving climate improved slightly since last summer." (There are exceptions, of course.)

What about giving to universities? Over on our higher education blog, my colleague Holly Hacker is working on a story about that. If you'd like to tell her why you're giving more, less, the same or not at all to your alma mater, drop her a line at hhacker@dallasnews.com.

Incidentally, the charitable environment is improving, says Indiana University. The school compiles a "Philanthropic Giving Index," which is designed to reveal current trends and future expectations in American philanthropic giving. It's like a consumer confidence index.

In December, the PGI was now at 71.1, an increase of 8.7 percent since summer 2009 and up 9.8 percent from this time last year. The "Present Situation Index" was 62.5, up 7.7 percent from six months ago and down 1.7 percent from one year ago. And the "Expectations Index," at 79.8, increased 9.6 percent from six months ago and 20.7 percent from a year ago.

Texas' home market closed out 2009 with a quarterly increase in sales and prices, according to a new report prepared by the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University for the Texas Association of Realtors.
The Texas Quarterly Housing report found that statewide home sales prices rose 2.35 percent in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago with a median of $143,400. Sales during the quarter were up 16 percent across the state from the same period of 2008.
And the overall inventory of homes listed for sale in the state dropped to 6.5 months - considered a balanced market.
In the Dallas area, the inventory is even less: 5.6 months.
Median prices in the Dallas area were up 2 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier to $152,300. And overall sales rose 12.9 percent.

Moody's Investors Service on Friday released its yearly outlook for the not-for-profit healthcare sector. It remains negative, due to the sluggish economy, the unknowns surrounding the Administration's healthcare initiatives and large government budget deficits.

Not-for-profit hospitals will remain at risk for significant payment reductions beyond 2010 as the federal government pushes providers harder for more spending efficiencies.

"Over the next 12-18 months -- the timeframe covered by the outlook -- we believe the not-for-profit hospital sector will face one of the toughest environments in decades," said Senior Vice President Lisa Martin, author of the Moody's report. "The lingering effects of the weakened economy remain and recovery will likely be delayed until well after the broader economy heals."