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000
FXUS64 KHGX 192126
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
LOOKING FOR SOME S/W ENERGY OVER W TX TO MAKE ITS WAY NE TONIGHT
AND TOWARD ARKLATEX AREA ON WED. DO ANTICIPATE SOME RETURNS ON
RADAR AS THIS OCCURS ESP W/NW PARTS OF THE CWA BUT STILL SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE ABOUT HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY TO THE
SFC EARLY ON CONSIDERING THE DRY LLVLS. OVERALL MOISTENING SHOULD
GRADUALLY OCCUR WITH TIME AS LLJ INCREASES THRU THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF VEERING TO THE
EAST AND WILL EVENTUALLY SE BY WED NIGHT. ACTUALLY THINK THE BETTER
SHOT OF RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF
I-45 WHERE A SFC CONVERGENT ZONE SETS UP. BUT OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.

LLJ WILL INCREASE TO 50-60KT WED NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM POISED TO KICK OUT OF AZ/NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ANTICIPATE
INCREASING SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE TOWARD SUNRISE MON AS LARGE SCALE
LIFT IS MAXIMIZED...JET POSITION BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AND A
PREFRONTAL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THIS PREFRONTAL
TROF TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR A THIN BAND OF WNW-TO-ESE MOVING
SHRA/TSTMS...BUT MOST CONCERNED ABOUT ANY DISCREET CELLS THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IN THE VICINITY OF A
WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS E/NE PARTS OF THE CWA. OVERALL CAPE
ISN`T VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHEAR WILL BE HIGH AS WILL STORM
MOTION. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS NARROW DOWN DETAILS WITH TIME...BUT
ATTM AREAS NE OF A BRENHAM-ANAHUAC LINE PROBABLY HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SEEING A STRONG TO SEVERE CELL. FAVORED TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE 6AM-2PM. ACTUAL FRONT WILL FILTER IN THURS NIGHT AND FRI.

STRONGLY FAVORED THE TX TECH WRF & NAM12 FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS OF THIS FCST PACKAGE.

GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS LOOKS TO CONSIST
OF A WESTERN TROF WITH A SERIES OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVES DIVING DOWN
INTO THE DESERT SW THEN KICKING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. BULK OF
ENERGY SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRECIP FROM TIME TO TIME.
PROBABLY BETTER SHOTS ASSOCIATED WITH COOL FRONTS ON LATE
SUN/EARLY MON THEN AGAIN ON WED. BUT KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.  47

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDES AND SEA HEIGHTS. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHTER
WIND FIELD AND LOWER SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY AND THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      46  59  56  71  45 /  20  50  50  80  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  62  60  75  52 /  10  40  50  70  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  64  64  73  59 /  10  40  30  60  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$