SciGuy

February 25, 2010

Another Texas-bound winter storm looming, but Houston should miss the worst

Amid the winter that will not end, another cold weather storm is headed toward Texas, but it looks like this one will spare Houston any freezing precipitation. That doesn't mean it won't feel cold, however.

Before Monday's front we actually have chance at a reasonably nice weekend, especially Sunday when highs could reach into the mid-60s with moderate east and southeast winds. But then comes another very strong front Monday morning, says meteorologist Fred Schmude, with ImpactWeather.

And it will get cold, again:

Temperatures behind the front will gradually fall from the mid-50s and down into the 40s after sunrise. Temperatures will more than likely remain in the mid 40s to near 50 during the day as overrunning clouds and periods of light rain linger over the area behind the departing cold front.

There might even be a little mixed sleet just north of the Houston area over East Texas on Monday, but we doubt it will move into the Houston area before the rain ends late in the afternoon. Gusty north winds of 10 to 20 mph will make it feel even colder during the day as Canadian high pressure builds rapidly southward across Texas.

Clouds are forecast to decrease Monday evening followed by mostly clear and cold conditions with a chance of a light early morning freeze on Tuesday over far northern and western Harris County. Mostly sunny and cool weather conditions are expected during the day on Tuesday with decreasing winds and high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s.

Another light freeze early Wednesday, again mainly north and west of Downtown Houston, will be followed by mostly sunny and even milder weather during the day with high temperatures reaching well into the 60s.

Someone asked Tuesday why there was all this hoopla about a few snowflakes and cold-ish weather in Houston. Clearly this is nothing like what northerners experience, or even people in Dallas. Are we Houston folk just wimps, then?

Uhh, no.

Despite two official snowfalls this winter, snow is a rare occurrence in Houston, typically happening only about every four years. It's a novelty. It's fun.

As for the cold weather, during many years we may only get a handful of freezes. And by late February we're accustomed to 70-degree days, not freezing nights.

James Nielsen/Houston Chronicle Sam Houston Trail Rider Dion Vandenbosch, in Tomball, "enjoys" Tuesday's snow.

Consider last year's February in Houston, when 21 of the month's 28 days had high temperatures of 70 degrees or above, and there was not one night of freezing temperatures. On three days temperatures topped out in the 80s.

Contrast that with this February, when we've had just one -- just one! -- day when temperatures reached 70 degrees. And so far there have been four freezes.

For people who know Houston weather, this winter has felt really cold. And we know that after Valentine's Day we can begin to expect warmer days, albeit followed by cool fronts. But we don't expect strong Canadian fronts and regular chances at snow.

So that's why this is a big deal. Houston just had its second latest snowfall in the city's history on Tuesday night, and more cold weather is on the way. We're wondering where our spring is right about now.

Posted by Eric Berger at 10:11 AM in Weather | Comments (23)
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February 24, 2010

Are you ready to become a human power plant?

I ask because the age of piezoelectricity appears to be upon us.

The idea is to convert the energy of human activity into electricity, and scientists are developing "piezoelectric" materials that generate electricity when flexed or subjected to pressure.

How much electricity could humans potentially generate?

The heel strike during a brisk walk generates 67 watts of power, whereas the simple, constant motion of the lungs from breathing can generate up to 1 watt.

For comparison purposes, an incandescent lightbulb consumes 25 to 100 watts, fluorescent lamps from 5 to 30 watts, and LED lights up to 6 watts. Scientists believe that a brisk walk could recharge a mobile phone, and that lung motion could operate a pacemaker without a battery.

So there's some interesting potential here for piezoelectric materials. But a key problem has been that traditionally manufacturing piezoelectric materials requires temperatures of more than 1,000 degrees Fahrenheit, making it difficult to combine them with rubber or other flexible materials.

Now scientists from Princeton University and the California Institute of Technology say they may have solved the problem. In their full report in Nano Letters (see article) the scientists describe the process by which they apply nano-ribbons of lead zirconate titanate, a highly efficient piezoelectric material, into flexible silicone rubber.

This material can convert up to 80 percent of the body's mechanical energy into electricity.

Frank Wojciechowski Piezo-rubber, super-thin films that harvest energy from motion. Your motion.

I know you're probably thinking this is the first step toward computers harnessing humans for electricity, ala Matrix. But the reality is that humans are very inefficient at converting food into mechanical energy. So I don't think we'll see human electricity farms any time soon.

But if you can get some extra juice out of that workout, so much the better, no?

Posted by Eric Berger at 05:03 PM in Energy | Comments (13)
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Some hints on NASA's human spaceflight plans today?

2:40 p.m. UPDATE Bolden confirms there will be no plan available for months that spells out how, when and where NASA will send humans beyond low-Earth orbit.

President Obama could certainly ease the pressure on Bolden by coming out in a news conference saying he has directed Bolden to take the necessary steps to put humans on Mars in the next quarter century.

2 p.m. UPDATE: Here's Bolden's testimony. There appear to be no concrete timelines or plans to get NASA beyond Earth orbit, or indeed, even for the space agency to develop its next generation of spacecraft. As we have reported, Mars is the destination.

This will not, I think, be a happy day for Bolden as he now addresses skeptical members of Congress.

Republican Senator David Vitter, of Louisiana, has thus far been most combative. He pressed Bolden on the "radical departure" from NASA's spaceflight plans, and Bolden replied although there was a vision to go to the moon and Mars, the budget wasn't big enough to do so.

"Wision without resources is a hallucination," Bolden said.

To this Vitter had a tart retort about his perception of NASA's current vision, or lack thereof, for human spaceflight:

"If vision without resources is a hallucination, resources without vision is a waste of time and money."

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Depending upon who you ask, President Obama's NASA budget is either a "belly-gazing approach to the future and the next frontier" or the foundation for a trip to Mars in a couple of decades.

Amid the fallout since the president released his budget on Feb. 1, which includes his proposed and controversial cancellation of the Constellation Program, the most persistent criticism has been the fact that there's just no plan for human spaceflight. The same is true of the more detailed version released this week.

When will humans go beyond low-Earth orbit? Where will humans go in the solar system? How will we get there? How long will NASA be without the capability to fly humans into space?

These are reasonable questions and the lack of answers has everyone who cares about NASA nervous.

But we should finally get some answers today when NASA Administrator Charles Bolden goes before a Senate subcommittee at 1:30 p.m. CT (see details).

Two weeks ago, during a 90-minute editorial board meeting at the Chronicle, Bolden expressed his intent to develop the plan everyone wants to see during the coming weeks and months, and said he needed to have the outline for such a plan when he went to Congress.

Well, today's the day. (Thursday, too, before a House committee.)

Bill Ingalls, NASA Charles Bolden goes back to Capitol Hill today.

I believe he will tell Congress that we have long-ago solved the basic problems of launching humans into space, and that hopefully commercial spaceflight providers can bring the cost down. What we lack the ability to do, however, is travel in space across long distances.

This means we can't shield astronauts from cosmic radiation for long periods of time, nor move quickly between planets. Thus we have basic health and engineering challenges to solve before we can reasonably go to Mars, the asteroids or elsewhere in the solar system.

Consequently Bolden is unlikely to say humans are going to go to Mars, or anywhere else in the solar system, by 2030 or some other fixed date.

But he will say NASA is committed to human spaceflight, and will solve the engineering challenges over the next decade to put us into a position where we can realistically blast humans beyond the moon by the 2030s. And he will have the outline of a plan to do so.

Will that be enough?

Posted by Eric Berger at 07:14 AM in Space | Comments (23)
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February 23, 2010

Snow system approaching Houston metro area

10 p.m. UPDATE: The great "blizzard" (har har) of February 2010 has ended. Here are totals from areas generally north of Harris County, where snowfall was light.

Burleson Co. - 2.5"
Brazos Co. - 3-3.5"
Madison Co. - 2-3"
Houston Co. - 3-3.5" (3-5" extreme north)
Washington Co. - 1-2"
Grimes Co. - dusting
Walker CO. - 3"
Trinity Co. - 1"
Montgomery Co. - dusting
San Jacinto Co. - 1.5"
Polk Co. - <1"

6 p.m. UPDATE: I'm seeing reports of snowflakes in places like Katy, Cypress and Jersey Village, and sleet in the Heights area of Houston.

Not expecting any accumulations across the metro area, but would still imagine that most places will at least see flakes before the system clears out between midnight and 3 a.m.

For the kiddos sake I hope everyone does indeed see a bit of the fluffy stuff before bedtime tonight.

4 p.m. UPDATE: So far the snow has remained north of the Houston metro area, although College Station has already received nearly 2 inches of snow today.

AP Photo/Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Rodger Mallison Houston won't get hit like Fort Worth did 12 days ago.

As temperatures cool this evening forecasters still believe the rain and sleet in the Houston area will change over to snow, especially to the north and west of Highway 59, and perhaps later for areas closer to the Gulf of Mexico coast.

All of the rain/sleet/snow should end by about 3 a.m.

For those concerned about bad roads, the possibility exists north of a line from Sealy to Katy (yes, really) to Tomball and the The Woodlands as freezing temperatures descend tonight.

But there should be no significant impact on commutes this evening in the Houston metro area.

With rapidly clearing skies overnight and warming temperatures forecasters do not expect major issues either tonight or tomorrow morning aside from some iced-over bridges.

We'll actually see some sun on Wednesday and Thursday before more storms -- albeit not of the wintry-mix type -- return on Friday.

NOON UPDATE: Here's the latest from the National Weather Service:

• By this afternoon snow will begin falling along and north a line from Brenham to Huntsville, where more than 2 inches can be expected to accumulate over night.

• By late this afternoon or early evening rain north of Interstate 10 should begin to change into snow, which may or may not accumulate in small amounts.

• By tonight this wintry mix should spread across much of the metro Houston area, although snow is not expected to accumulate in significant amounts.

• Counties north and west of Harris County may see ice on roads and bridges until 9 a.m. or 10 a.m. on Wednesday, but areas closer to the coast should be OK.

11 a.m. UPDATE: Here are some maps of expected snowfall accumulations for the southeastern United States and locally out of the current storm, courtesy of ImpactWeather.

And here's the map for East Texas, including Houston. At this time it looks warm enough that the metro Houston area won't get too much in the way of accumulating snow, and likely less than an inch in areas where it does stick.

This evening and tonight, however, most areas should at least see snow flurries.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Houston remains on track to receive some late-winter snow this evening.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the metro Houston region, calling for an inch or more of snow north of Interstate 10, and a few inches for areas north and west of Harris County.

The forecasters note that if temperature forecasts are off just slightly, and temperatures are a few degrees cooler, we could get more snow than bargained for across the Houston area.

That's because the air in the atmosphere above about 1,500 feet is more than cold enough to support snow, and it's only a thin layer at ground level that is warm enough to melt the snow as it falls, or when it reaches the comparatively warm ground.

Nick de la Torre / Chronicle Snow falls in Houston on December 4, 2009. Will history repeat itself?

Here's the latest outlook for what to expect today, timing-wise, from Nathan Stanford, a meteorologist with ImpactWeather:

The winter storm system is well on its way this morning across the Lone Star State as light snow is falling from just west of Dallas down to near Austin and San Antonio.

Here in Southeast Texas, it still looks like much of the Houston area will see at least a mix of wet snow and rain before this system pushes off to the east and northeast. A transition to wintry precipitation (wet snow and sleet) will begin by around 3-4 p.m. with a changeover to all wet snow from northwest to southeast from 5-10 p.m.

Drier air spreading in behind gusty northwest winds will end snow from northwest to southeast shortly after midnight tonight. Accumulations of 1-2 inches are anticipated over areas west and north of Downtown Houston with a trace to an inch possible south and east of Metro Houston. Even coastal areas will see a brief change over to wet snow before precipitation comes to an end.

The wintry precipitation is not expected to cause many travel issues as temperatures will remain above freezing through most of the event. But, snow melt could re-freeze in patches over north and western Harris County and Montgomery County early Wednesday morning as temperatures dip down to near 32F by sunrise.

So for most areas tonight should be more of a winter wonderland than a winter nightmare, but it still will undoubtedly be a messy commute home. By tomorrow morning most of the metro area should be clear.

If you're wondering when to expect some relief, the medium-range models are still calling for some really cold conditions over the next 10 days in Houston, including a front that could bring another moderate freeze to the city in about a week.

After that finally, maybe, spring-like weather.

Posted by Eric Berger at 06:43 AM in Weather | Comments (95)
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February 22, 2010

Amid the climate tempest: Some level-headedness on hurricanes

Much has been said about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, indeed enough to say it has been much-maligned. Even Nature, a prestigious journal that has called for urgent action on climate change, has recently opened its pages to a discussion of changing the IPCC process.

For a large number of Americans, and indeed people around the world following the Himalayan Glacier issue, there's definitely a perception that the IPCC is, at best, flawed.

NASA Can the IPCC survive a hurricane of bad publicity?

So how might the IPCC be changed or supplanted to restore some of the lost credibility? Perhaps we might find some answers in a working group established by the World Meteorological Organization to study the effect of climate change on hurricane activity.

The group includes scientists who are both very bullish on climate change increasing damage from hurricanes (i.e. Greg Holland) and scientists who are not (Chris Landsea).

After producing a statement in 2006 on the state of their research, the group has four years later published a formal review article to update their findings. I asked the lead author, Thomas Knutson of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, what the principal findings were:

First we can't conclude from looking at past data that we already see any detectable human influence on hurricane activity. And looking across a range of studies, the studies are indicating more likely than not an increase in the numbers of the more intense hurricanes globally. But we're also saying there's a lot of regional variability and uncertainty.

If one goes down to the Gulf Coast level, the science we have to say is more uncertain. We see from the models indications of increases in intensity, but again, one can look at maps of things that try to model this, and it doesn't increase everywhere. We're also finding increased evidence that, globally, the number of tropical storms is likely to decrease or stay the same.

And was it hard to bring together a group of scientists with such disparate views to find common ground?

No, I don't think it was that big of a challenge. There are a few points where we had to break out and discuss things in smaller groups to work through some of the language. But I thought the process went pretty smoothly from my perspective.

I would submit this may be a good model for revisiting the science of climate change. Remove the politicians from the IPCC process, and as much as possible, remove the politics from the process. How to do this?

Have groups like the World Meteorological Organization identify a group of leading scientists in each particular field (i.e. ocean temperatures, or Arctic melting) and have each group independently produce a review article. Then have each dozens of groups write a short (300 words?) summary, in lay language, of their findings.

These summaries could be included in a summary report that would not be edited or otherwise changed. The full reports could be published in peer-reviewed journals in an open-access manner.

Thoughts?

Posted by Eric Berger at 03:01 PM in Climate change, Hurricanes | Comments (37)
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Heat, humidity & humor: Your weekly weather

4 p.m. UPDATE: The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Harris County, calling for accumulations of one-quarter to one-half inch of snow north of Interstate 10 on Tuesday evening, with potentially 2 inches or more north and west of Harris County.

National Weather Service

But there remains considerable uncertainty. Another source, Fred Schmude of Impact Weather, said the snowfall could be even wider in scope. His prediction:

Atmospheric data indicates rain will likely mix with or change to sleet or wet snow across Montgomery and possibly Northern Harris County in between 3pm and 6pm Tuesday and build quickly south toward the Texas Coast tomorrow evening.

Snow amounts are forecast to average from 1-2 inches north and west of Downtown Houston and from a Trace to perhaps as high as 1 inch south and east of Downtown Houston and right toward the coast.

It seems probable that much of the Houston metro area will at least see some snowflakes in the air, although this clearly remains a dynamic situation.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Welcome to your Monday morning weather update in which I'll attempt to sum up the immediate past, present and future of weather on the bayou. Below you'll find a look at this week's potential wintry mix (really), and when Houston's winter might finally break.

PAST

My parents were in town this weekend and the whole family trucked it to the zoo on Saturday. I guess we weren't the only ones who decided one of the city's first spring-like days was a good one to stroll around outside and see some animals.

The zoo, in short, was a zoo.

With its warmish end, last week was relatively warmer than the previous one (temperatures were still 5 degrees below normal, but that's better than last week's 9 degrees below normal), and it looks like the coming week will be another cold one. Overall temperatures this month are running 6 degrees below normal and it seems all but certain this will be one of the fourth or fifth coldest Februarys in Houston's history.

Anyway, let's do the numbers:

Date	High T	Low T	Average	Departure	Rainfall
Monday	52	33	43	-12	0.00
Tuesday	57	30	44	-12	0.00
Wednesday	61	32	47	-9	0.00
Thursday	63	31	47	-9	0.00
Friday	60	44	52	-4	0.00
Saturday	69	46	58	+2	0.00
Sunday	72	54	63	+7	0.01
Average	62.0	38.6	50.3	-5.3	0.01

PRESENT

Will it snow? Are we really asking this question in late February? Yep.

A strong cold front swept across Houston last night and temperatures are only going to get cooler for the next few days.

By Tuesday or Tuesday night a feature known as a shortwave trough will approach the Houston region, forecasters say. This is a smallish front in the upper levels of the atmosphere (rather than at ground level). This trough should spark some form of precipitation on Tuesday.

For areas north of a Brenham-Livingston line it appears all but certain this will result in a lot of snow, perhaps 2 to 4 inches. The National Weather Service has accordingly issued a Winter Storm Watch.

Beyond that it's a tricky forecast. Montgomery and Northwest Harris County may get accumulating snow as early as late Tuesday afternoon, and minor accumulations are possible as far south as Interstate 10 (If Katy is planning to evacuate, do not go northwest on 290).

If snow falls at Bush Intercontinental Airport this would be Houston's second-latest snowfall ever, which would be amazing considering this winter already featured the city's earliest ever snowfall.

A mixture of rain and snow is possible all the way to the coast. It's safe to say the commute home Tuesday night will be a real mess, so plan accordingly.

The rest of the week will be cold, but gradually warming. There's a chance of highs in the low- to mid-60s this weekend with mostly cloudy skies. If there's sun, and the zoo is in your plans, get there before noon.

FUTURE

Houston looks really cold for the next 10 days, but after that temperatures should moderate. Here's the outlook for next Saturday through Wednesday, March 3 from Commodity Weather Group:

By the middle of next week normal temperatures are forecast to return to normal and Houston might actually begin to experience spring. Pleasant change, that.

SUMMARY

This week's weather rating scale goes from 0 to 5.7 million (the number of miles space shuttle Endeavour flew before landing Sunday night.)

My number: 1.8 million

Posted by Eric Berger at 06:57 AM in Weather | Comments (55)
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February 21, 2010

Live chat: Recap the safe return of space shuttle Endeavour

Read below for a recap of the successful return of space shuttle Endeavour to Kennedy Space Center Sunday night.

Posted by Eric Berger at 02:48 PM in Space | Comments (3)
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Everybody needs a nap, you see

Scientists have previously found that napping improves our ability to learn complex things by refreshing select circuits in our brains.

A new study of 39 students at the University of California, Berkeley has affirmed this result. The students were given a cognitive test at noon. Then half the students were allowed a 90-minute siesta, and the other group was not.

Those who napped did considerably better on a second round of learning later in the day. What happened?

Fact-based memories are temporarily stored in the hippocampus before being sent to the brain's prefrontal cortex, which may have more storage space.

"It's as though the e-mail inbox in your hippocampus is full and, until you sleep and clear out those fact e-mails, you're not going to receive any more mail. It's just going to bounce until you sleep and move it into another folder," Walker said.

In the latest study, Walker and his team have broken new ground in discovering that this memory- refreshing process occurs when nappers are engaged in a specific stage of sleep.

Electroencephalogram tests, which measure electrical activity in the brain, indicated that this refreshing of memory capacity is related to Stage 2 non-REM sleep, which takes place between deep sleep (non-REM) and the dream state known as Rapid Eye Movement (REM).

Previously, the purpose of this stage was unclear, but the new results offer evidence as to why humans spend at least half their sleeping hours in Stage 2, non-REM, Walker said.

Learn more about the research in Matthew Walker's lab.

I do wonder how these findings apply to the workplace. In New York City you can buy a 40-minute nap for $28. Do any workplaces in Houston offer dedicated nap rooms?

Posted by Eric Berger at 07:48 AM in Biology | Comments (5)
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February 19, 2010

A bold new plan for NASA: dirigibles and puppy powered rovers

The value of animals in famous explorations, we can comfortably say, is well established. Where would Louis and Clark have been without horses? And Roald Amundsen would not have reached the South Pole without his 97 Greenland dogs.

At the present moment NASA finds itself embroiled in a controversy over the use of monkeys to test space radiation. Already the Physician's Committee for Responsible Medicine has campaigned to stop NASA from exposing monkeys to radiation, and on Thursday the organization filed a complaint with the NASA Inspector General.

It needn't be so. Can't we all get along? Instead of using animals for lab tests, let's give them a more glamorous role than as lab animals. Let's use animals for propulsion.

Sure, you say, I'm crazy. But no.

Popular Science has already shown us, in a 1933 article, how this might be accomplished. First of all NASA's fine engineers might consider dogs as a propulsion system for a rover on Mars:

Popular Science

The brilliance of the cynosphere, invented in 1880, is that each wheel contains a housing for a dog, in which the animal can run on a circular, hamster-like track. I hear it is cold on Mars, so they probably need to employ St. Bernards.

Of course if NASA is going to design a vehicle to traverse Mars, they need to actually get the animals and humans to Mars. For this purpose, perhaps the space agency would consider a dirigible?

Popular Science

The genius of the this proposal, made in 1881, is that birds -- be they eagles, vultures or other types of fowl -- wear corsets so their path of flight can be controlled. (And if the animal rights people start in about the birds wearing corsets, simply point out in the photo above that the umbrella provides them shade and comfort from the elements).

We've already seen godwits fly 6,200 miles nonstop. What's another 55 million miles?

You may say, "But there's no air in space, how would the birds survive, or of what use would it be for them to flap their wings?"

To this I would reply that I'm sick and tired of naysayers when it comes to NASA. This is an organization that landed an eagle on the moon 40 years ago. They can, at the very least, fly an eagle to Mars with all of today's technology.

Posted by Eric Berger at 07:20 AM in Space | Comments (26)
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