SciGuy

February 23, 2010

Snow system still on track for Houston metro area

Houston remains on track to receive some late-winter snow this evening.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the metro Houston region, calling for an inch or more of snow north of Interstate 10, and a few inches for areas north and west of Harris County.

The forecasters note that if temperature forecasts are off just slightly, and temperatures are a few degrees cooler, we could get more snow than bargained for across the Houston area.

That's because the air in the atmosphere above about 1,500 feet is more than cold enough to support snow, and it's only a thin layer at ground level that is warm enough to melt the snow as it falls, or when it reaches the comparatively warm ground.

Nick de la Torre / Chronicle Snow falls in Houston on December 4, 2009. Will history repeat itself?

Here's the latest outlook for what to expect today, timing-wise, from Nathan Stanford, a meteorologist with ImpactWeather:

The winter storm system is well on its way this morning across the Lone Star State as light snow is falling from just west of Dallas down to near Austin and San Antonio.

Here in Southeast Texas, it still looks like much of the Houston area will see at least a mix of wet snow and rain before this system pushes off to the east and northeast. A transition to wintry precipitation (wet snow and sleet) will begin by around 3-4 p.m. with a changeover to all wet snow from northwest to southeast from 5-10 p.m.

Drier air spreading in behind gusty northwest winds will end snow from northwest to southeast shortly after midnight tonight. Accumulations of 1-2 inches are anticipated over areas west and north of Downtown Houston with a trace to an inch possible south and east of Metro Houston. Even coastal areas will see a brief change over to wet snow before precipitation comes to an end.

The wintry precipitation is not expected to cause many travel issues as temperatures will remain above freezing through most of the event. But, snow melt could re-freeze in patches over north and western Harris County and Montgomery County early Wednesday morning as temperatures dip down to near 32F by sunrise.

So for most areas tonight should be more of a winter wonderland than a winter nightmare, but it still will undoubtedly be a messy commute home. By tomorrow morning most of the metro area should be clear.

If you're wondering when to expect some relief, the medium-range models are still calling for some really cold conditions over the next 10 days in Houston, including a front that could bring another moderate freeze to the city in about a week.

After that finally, maybe, spring-like weather.

Posted by Eric Berger at 06:43 AM in Weather | Comments (28)
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February 22, 2010

Amid the climate tempest: Some level-headedness on hurricanes

Much has been said about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, indeed enough to say it has been much-maligned. Even Nature, a prestigious journal that has called for urgent action on climate change, has recently opened its pages to a discussion of changing the IPCC process.

For a large number of Americans, and indeed people around the world following the Himalayan Glacier issue, there's definitely a perception that the IPCC is, at best, flawed.

NASA Can the IPCC survive a hurricane of bad publicity?

So how might the IPCC be changed or supplanted to restore some of the lost credibility? Perhaps we might find some answers in a working group established by the World Meteorological Organization to study the effect of climate change on hurricane activity.

The group includes scientists who are both very bullish on climate change increasing damage from hurricanes (i.e. Greg Holland) and scientists who are not (Chris Landsea).

After producing a statement in 2006 on the state of their research, the group has four years later published a formal review article to update their findings. I asked the lead author, Thomas Knutson of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, what the principal findings were:

First we can't conclude from looking at past data that we already see any detectable human influence on hurricane activity. And looking across a range of studies, the studies are indicating more likely than not an increase in the numbers of the more intense hurricanes globally. But we're also saying there's a lot of regional variability and uncertainty.

If one goes down to the Gulf Coast level, the science we have to say is more uncertain. We see from the models indications of increases in intensity, but again, one can look at maps of things that try to model this, and it doesn't increase everywhere. We're also finding increased evidence that, globally, the number of tropical storms is likely to decrease or stay the same.

And was it hard to bring together a group of scientists with such disparate views to find common ground?

No, I don't think it was that big of a challenge. There are a few points where we had to break out and discuss things in smaller groups to work through some of the language. But I thought the process went pretty smoothly from my perspective.

I would submit this may be a good model for revisiting the science of climate change. Remove the politicians from the IPCC process, and as much as possible, remove the politics from the process. How to do this?

Have groups like the World Meteorological Organization identify a group of leading scientists in each particular field (i.e. ocean temperatures, or Arctic melting) and have each group independently produce a review article. Then have each dozens of groups write a short (300 words?) summary, in lay language, of their findings.

These summaries could be included in a summary report that would not be edited or otherwise changed. The full reports could be published in peer-reviewed journals in an open-access manner.

Thoughts?

Posted by Eric Berger at 03:01 PM in Climate change, Hurricanes | Comments (12)
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Heat, humidity & humor: Your weekly weather

4 p.m. UPDATE: The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Harris County, calling for accumulations of one-quarter to one-half inch of snow north of Interstate 10 on Tuesday evening, with potentially 2 inches or more north and west of Harris County.

National Weather Service

But there remains considerable uncertainty. Another source, Fred Schmude of Impact Weather, said the snowfall could be even wider in scope. His prediction:

Atmospheric data indicates rain will likely mix with or change to sleet or wet snow across Montgomery and possibly Northern Harris County in between 3pm and 6pm Tuesday and build quickly south toward the Texas Coast tomorrow evening.

Snow amounts are forecast to average from 1-2 inches north and west of Downtown Houston and from a Trace to perhaps as high as 1 inch south and east of Downtown Houston and right toward the coast.

It seems probable that much of the Houston metro area will at least see some snowflakes in the air, although this clearly remains a dynamic situation.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Welcome to your Monday morning weather update in which I'll attempt to sum up the immediate past, present and future of weather on the bayou. Below you'll find a look at this week's potential wintry mix (really), and when Houston's winter might finally break.

PAST

My parents were in town this weekend and the whole family trucked it to the zoo on Saturday. I guess we weren't the only ones who decided one of the city's first spring-like days was a good one to stroll around outside and see some animals.

The zoo, in short, was a zoo.

With its warmish end, last week was relatively warmer than the previous one (temperatures were still 5 degrees below normal, but that's better than last week's 9 degrees below normal), and it looks like the coming week will be another cold one. Overall temperatures this month are running 6 degrees below normal and it seems all but certain this will be one of the fourth or fifth coldest Februarys in Houston's history.

Anyway, let's do the numbers:

Date	High T	Low T	Average	Departure	Rainfall
Monday	52	33	43	-12	0.00
Tuesday	57	30	44	-12	0.00
Wednesday	61	32	47	-9	0.00
Thursday	63	31	47	-9	0.00
Friday	60	44	52	-4	0.00
Saturday	69	46	58	+2	0.00
Sunday	72	54	63	+7	0.01
Average	62.0	38.6	50.3	-5.3	0.01

PRESENT

Will it snow? Are we really asking this question in late February? Yep.

A strong cold front swept across Houston last night and temperatures are only going to get cooler for the next few days.

By Tuesday or Tuesday night a feature known as a shortwave trough will approach the Houston region, forecasters say. This is a smallish front in the upper levels of the atmosphere (rather than at ground level). This trough should spark some form of precipitation on Tuesday.

For areas north of a Brenham-Livingston line it appears all but certain this will result in a lot of snow, perhaps 2 to 4 inches. The National Weather Service has accordingly issued a Winter Storm Watch.

Beyond that it's a tricky forecast. Montgomery and Northwest Harris County may get accumulating snow as early as late Tuesday afternoon, and minor accumulations are possible as far south as Interstate 10 (If Katy is planning to evacuate, do not go northwest on 290).

If snow falls at Bush Intercontinental Airport this would be Houston's second-latest snowfall ever, which would be amazing considering this winter already featured the city's earliest ever snowfall.

A mixture of rain and snow is possible all the way to the coast. It's safe to say the commute home Tuesday night will be a real mess, so plan accordingly.

The rest of the week will be cold, but gradually warming. There's a chance of highs in the low- to mid-60s this weekend with mostly cloudy skies. If there's sun, and the zoo is in your plans, get there before noon.

FUTURE

Houston looks really cold for the next 10 days, but after that temperatures should moderate. Here's the outlook for next Saturday through Wednesday, March 3 from Commodity Weather Group:

By the middle of next week normal temperatures are forecast to return to normal and Houston might actually begin to experience spring. Pleasant change, that.

SUMMARY

This week's weather rating scale goes from 0 to 5.7 million (the number of miles space shuttle Endeavour flew before landing Sunday night.)

My number: 1.8 million

Posted by Eric Berger at 06:57 AM in Weather | Comments (55)
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February 21, 2010

Live chat: Recap the safe return of space shuttle Endeavour

Read below for a recap of the successful return of space shuttle Endeavour to Kennedy Space Center Sunday night.

Posted by Eric Berger at 02:48 PM in Space | Comments (3)
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Everybody needs a nap, you see

Scientists have previously found that napping improves our ability to learn complex things by refreshing select circuits in our brains.

A new study of 39 students at the University of California, Berkeley has affirmed this result. The students were given a cognitive test at noon. Then half the students were allowed a 90-minute siesta, and the other group was not.

Those who napped did considerably better on a second round of learning later in the day. What happened?

Fact-based memories are temporarily stored in the hippocampus before being sent to the brain's prefrontal cortex, which may have more storage space.

"It's as though the e-mail inbox in your hippocampus is full and, until you sleep and clear out those fact e-mails, you're not going to receive any more mail. It's just going to bounce until you sleep and move it into another folder," Walker said.

In the latest study, Walker and his team have broken new ground in discovering that this memory- refreshing process occurs when nappers are engaged in a specific stage of sleep.

Electroencephalogram tests, which measure electrical activity in the brain, indicated that this refreshing of memory capacity is related to Stage 2 non-REM sleep, which takes place between deep sleep (non-REM) and the dream state known as Rapid Eye Movement (REM).

Previously, the purpose of this stage was unclear, but the new results offer evidence as to why humans spend at least half their sleeping hours in Stage 2, non-REM, Walker said.

Learn more about the research in Matthew Walker's lab.

I do wonder how these findings apply to the workplace. In New York City you can buy a 40-minute nap for $28. Do any workplaces in Houston offer dedicated nap rooms?

Posted by Eric Berger at 07:48 AM in Biology | Comments (5)
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February 19, 2010

A bold new plan for NASA: dirigibles and puppy powered rovers

The value of animals in famous explorations, we can comfortably say, is well established. Where would Louis and Clark have been without horses? And Roald Amundsen would not have reached the South Pole without his 97 Greenland dogs.

At the present moment NASA finds itself embroiled in a controversy over the use of monkeys to test space radiation. Already the Physician's Committee for Responsible Medicine has campaigned to stop NASA from exposing monkeys to radiation, and on Thursday the organization filed a complaint with the NASA Inspector General.

It needn't be so. Can't we all get along? Instead of using animals for lab tests, let's give them a more glamorous role than as lab animals. Let's use animals for propulsion.

Sure, you say, I'm crazy. But no.

Popular Science has already shown us, in a 1933 article, how this might be accomplished. First of all NASA's fine engineers might consider dogs as a propulsion system for a rover on Mars:

Popular Science

The brilliance of the cynosphere, invented in 1880, is that each wheel contains a housing for a dog, in which the animal can run on a circular, hamster-like track. I hear it is cold on Mars, so they probably need to employ St. Bernards.

Of course if NASA is going to design a vehicle to traverse Mars, they need to actually get the animals and humans to Mars. For this purpose, perhaps the space agency would consider a dirigible?

Popular Science

The genius of the this proposal, made in 1881, is that birds -- be they eagles, vultures or other types of fowl -- wear corsets so their path of flight can be controlled. (And if the animal rights people start in about the birds wearing corsets, simply point out in the photo above that the umbrella provides them shade and comfort from the elements).

We've already seen godwits fly 6,200 miles nonstop. What's another 55 million miles?

You may say, "But there's no air in space, how would the birds survive, or of what use would it be for them to flap their wings?"

To this I would reply that I'm sick and tired of naysayers when it comes to NASA. This is an organization that landed an eagle on the moon 40 years ago. They can, at the very least, fly an eagle to Mars with all of today's technology.

Posted by Eric Berger at 07:20 AM in Space | Comments (26)
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February 18, 2010

Come see NASA's new room with a view

Early Wednesday astronauts aboard the International Space Station (and spacewalkers Robert Behnken and Nicholas Patrick outside) finished installing the seven-window cupola, which will afford crew members a grand view of Earth and the cosmos.

The photos below were taken shortly after the shutters were removed for the first time.

This image shows the coast of Algeria featuring (in the cupola's round window) an area between the cities of Dellys and Algiers. The image was recorded with a digital still camera using a 28mm lens setting.

NASA

Astronauts Terry Virts (left), STS-130 pilot; and Jeffrey Williams, Expedition 22 commander, pose for a photo near the windows in the newly-installed cupola.

NASA

NASA astronaut Jeffrey Williams (right), Expedition 22 commander; and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) astronaut Soichi Noguchi, flight engineer, pose for a photo near the windows in the newly-installed cupola.

NASA

NASA astronauts Terry Virts (left), STS-130 pilot; and Stephen Robinson, mission specialist, pose for a photo near the windows in the newly-installed cupola.

NASA

See full-size versions of the photos.

Posted by Eric Berger at 07:13 AM in Space | Comments (24)
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February 17, 2010

Where does dust come from?

It's everywhere. It's the bane of wooden floors. It's ... dust.

Humans lose an estimated 10s of thousands of dead skin cells every minute as the innermost layer of the epidermis continually makes new cells to replace those that are lost. Pets do likewise. Furniture, bedding and clothes release fibers when they are used. And then there's carpet, which releases fibers too.

But contrary to what I had believed -- the source of most dust in our homes comes not from such sources, but from the outdoors.

A new study in Environmental Science & Technology, a semi-monthly journal, concludes that 60 percent of dust inside our homes comes from the outdoors. Much of this comes via airborne particles and tracked in soil.

The origin of dust? The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind.

The scientists found that the lead and arsenic in homes typically comes from outside air and soil, and that this can collect on toys and other objects young children might put in their mouths.

So if your kids toys are dusty, clean them.

Posted by Eric Berger at 01:40 PM in Environment, Health | Comments (27)
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Texas declares war on the IPCC, British climate unit

After Texas Gov. Rick Perry announced Tuesday that the state will challenge the EPA's ruling to regulate carbon dioxide, I had a lengthy conversation with Greg Abbott, the state's attorney general. He had some pretty strong feelings about the IPCC in particular, and climate scientists in general.

The full petition for reconsideration can be seen here, but below I'll attempt to summarize the grounds upon which Texas takes issue with the EPA finding on carbon dioxide.

Abbott says the EPA did not conduct its own scientific review, but relied on the finding of the IPCC and Climatic Research Unit at East Anglia University.

"The reason why we have asserted this petition was because of the late-breaking revelations that the information and analysis relied upon by the IPCC and CRU has turned out to be faulty, unreliable and discredited," Abbott said.

Abbott.

He cited the familiar Himalayan error in the IPCC report. But he also referenced assertions about questionable Chinese data, Amazon rainforest losses and other potential issues with the IPCC report. (Real Climate argues that these latter three are non-issues).

Abbott also unloaded on the Climatic Research Unit.

"CRU admitted this past November that much of its original data has been destroyed. All that remains is the altered or manipulated data. As a result the accuracy of CRU's analysis can't be checked. All that we have left is the homogenized data. That's fine if you can trust the homogenizers. But the truth is we can't trust the homogenizers."

Abbott said the IPCC mistakes and hacked or deliberately released e-mails from CRU (i.e. ClimateGate) show clear malfeasance on the part of climate scientists.

"There clearly is lying, falsification, cover-ups, et cetera that are going on here. We're not saying the science is wrong, we're looking at this information and saying this information is troubling. The course of American commerce cannot be altered when there are this many faults with the underlying analysis."

I asked him how, as attorney general, he could build a case against the CRU when the e-mails had apparently been hacked, or stolen?

"For one, you use the key word apparently. I don't know how this information came to light. I've seen this may have been a release by someone with a guilty conscience. I don't know how the information came to light. What I do find troubling as AG is two things. 1. The EPA has relied upon information that is proven to be faulty. 2. Apparently Phil Jones and his colleagues seem to basically have a working conspiracy to evade and avoid open-government laws. I don't know about that, but what I do know is as the Attorney General I find it deeply disturbing that people who are supposed to be scientists in search of truth collaborate and conspire to hide information on which a trillion dollar decision will be made, and in doing so violate open government laws."

I noted that the state of Texas has a number of eminent climate scientists. Did he ask any of them about these issues before proceeding with a legal brief?

"Not yet and here's why. At this stage we're not focused on, nor need we be focused on, needing to prove anything from a scientific basis ourselves. An unceasing flow of waves in which the scientific information the EPA relied upon has been discredited. We need to be able to put to rest all the flaws in the information the EPA relies upon. There's an unmitigated taint to the information the EPA has relied upon. The EPA can't stick its head in the sand and ignore that, it must address that."

Abbott says he believes there is ample evidence for a court to decide that the EPA must reopen its scientific analysis of whether carbon dioxide is a pollutant.

Given that there appears to be little hope of passing a cap-and-trade bill in Congress soon, the political war in the United States over global warming may hence forth be fought in the courts.

And there can be no doubt which side Texas is on.

UPDATE: Texas state climatologist John-Nielsen Gammon has an overview of the state's petition here.

Posted by Eric Berger at 08:01 AM in Climate change | Comments (110)
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February 16, 2010

Texas to fight EPA on carbon dioxide: How climate contrarianism went mainstream

Two months after the Environmental Protection Agency decided to regulate carbon dioxide as a pollutant, Texas Gov. Rick Perry says the state of Texas will challenge the EPA in court.

You can see Perry's full statement here. More telling are the comments from Attorney General Greg Abbott:

"With billions of dollars at stake, EPA outsourced the scientific basis for its greenhouse gas regulation to a scandal-plagued international organization that cannot be considered objective or trustworthy. Prominent climate scientists associated with the IPCC were engaged in an ongoing, orchestrated effort to violate freedom of information laws, exclude scientific research, and manipulate temperature data. In light of the parade of controversies and improper conduct that has been uncovered, we know that the IPCC cannot be relied upon for objective, unbiased science -- so EPA should not rely upon it to reach a decision that will hurt small businesses, farmers, ranchers, and the larger Texas economy."

If you were wondering what the ultimate effect of ClimateGate will be, here it is. Climate change is now firmly a plank of the Republican party, that is, I believe it is now something of a litmus test for Republican candidates. ClimateGate has legitimized climate contrarianism.

It -- or at the very least opposition to doing anything meaningful to reduce greenhouse gas emissions -- is now nearly as Republican as tax cuts.

There was a time, even a very few years ago, when Republicans spoke openly about addressing climate change and worked with scientists on the issue. Now, especially after ClimateGate gave a veneer of legitimacy to those who claim climate scientists are scamming the public, those Republicans have largely gone away.

For example U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is running against Perry for the Republican nomination for Governor and has been a great friend to Texas scientists, supported Perry's step today, saying, "This overreach by the EPA is nothing more than an attempted end-run around the many who have rightfully stood up against cap and trade legislation also being pushed by this administration."

What does all this mean? Well, even if every country met its pledge from Copenhagen, according to the Sustainability Institute global temperatures would still rise by 3.7 degrees Celsius.

Clearly all of those global proposals aren't going to be fulfilled. And just as clearly a meaningful bill to limit U.S. carbon dioxide emissions isn't going to pass Congress any time soon.

One wonders if the climate science, and perhaps more importantly the environmental science community, will realize this and change their strategy.

Posted by Eric Berger at 11:22 AM in Climate change | Comments (75)
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