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AL West Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles
|
97 | 65 | .598 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
Texas
|
87 | 75 | .537 | 10 | Lost 2 |
|
Seattle
|
85 | 77 | .524 | 12 | Won 2 |
|
Oakland
|
75 | 87 | .462 | 22 | Lost 7 |
(updated 2.19.2010 at 4:07 PM PST)
Sabermetrics 101: Expected Wins and Losses
by Graham on Feb 19, 2010 5:53 PM PST
in Sabermetrics 101
0 comments
Pythagorean win/loss record is one of the most misused concepts in sabremetrics. That doesn't mean it doesn't have moments where it shines, so let's look at what it is, when to use it, and when not to use it.
Prerequisites for understanding: None.
Prerequisites for derivation: Data.
0 comments | 0 recs |
That Fifth Bullpen Spot
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 19, 2010 5:16 PM PST
in Miscellaneous
2 comments
For as long as it remains healthy, the upper bit of the Mariner bullpen promises to be really good. When you combine David Aardsma, Mark Lowe, Brandon League, and Shawn Kelley's 2009 performances, you get a strikeout an inning and a 3.6 FIP, and there's not a team in baseball that wouldn't be thrilled to have any one of them, except the Astros, because the Astros are stupid.
It's behind those guys, though, that the situation becomes a little less clear. Which isn't to suggest that this issue is unique to the Mariners. We're talking middle relief. I always get a kick out of whenever Yankee fans stress out about their middle relievers, because middle relievers, almost by definition, aren't good. A good middle reliever isn't a middle reliever anymore, and while stocking your bullpen with six or seven closer candidates is a nice fantasy, it's neither realistic nor cost-efficient. Every bullpen's going to have a guy or three who's just there to throw innings and not lose games on purpose, and that's something every baseball fan has in common.
Beneath the top of the Mariner bullpen lie two roles. Possibly three, but given the offseason the M's just had, a six-man bullpen looks most likely, at least for the bulk of the year. One of those spots is going to go to one of the losers of the fifth starter competition, be it Doug Fister, Jason Vargas, Garrett Olson, or whoever. Which would seem to leave one spot open for pretty much every other pitcher in camp.
Dave talked about this a little bit yesterday, and his is a good post. The reason I'm writing this up is because I wanted to go a little more in depth on Sean White and Kanekoa Texeira. White you'll remember for making two appearances per game a season ago. Texeira you'll remember for being our Rule 5 pick in December. Both guys will enter camp competing for a job, and while there's no guarantee, my read is that they'll be competing for the same job, as the two frontrunners.
Oh, there'll be others. Josh Fields. Ricky Orta. David Pauley. Mike Koplove. More. Spring training is always littered with potential relievers, and the M's will have a number to sort through. But while the list of names runs on, at the top are White and Texeira, and unless the M's open up another job, only one of them will be able to make it.
So which should they pick? This would appear to be one of the rare instances in which spring training performance - or at least spring training appearance - will actually matter. There are enough questions about every candidate that the coaching staff and front office will want to see everyone in person and observe how they're throwing. With that said, though, I think we already have enough information to come up with a preference.
Consider Sean White. It's no secret that Wakamatsu loved White a year ago. Before going down with an injury, he appeared in a lot of games and soaked up a lot of innings, serving as a middle-inning bridge between the starters and the setup. And given that he ran a 2.80 ERA and had a .216 average against, it's easy to see why Wak kept going back to the well. White rarely imploded, and managers like relievers who rarely implode.
But as many of you should recognize, White didn't actually pitch very well. Or, if you prefer, he didn't pitch in such a way that portends good future success. I know he came in with that flashy new fastball, but all it and the rest of his stuff got him were the following rankings, out of 213 relievers with at least 30 innings pitched:
O-Swing%: 105th
Z-Swing%: 191st
O-Contact%: 192nd
Z-Contact%: 207th
Contact%: 207th
F-Strike%: 186th
GB%: 62nd
Strike%: 126th
Don't like percentages and rankings? No big deal. The take-home message here is that, despite the mid-90s heat, White was extraordinarily hittable, and for a guy who supposedly keeps the ball on the ground, his groundball rate was only all right. Meaning White allows a lot of contact, with a good deal of it launching the ball in the air.
I don't mean to convey the impression that Sean White is bad. He isn't. He throws enough strikes and keeps the ball down often enough to avoid disaster, which makes him palatable as a 6th inning guy. But he doesn't strike anyone out, ever, he doesn't have a plan of attack against lefties, and our ability to count on him to replicate last year's performance going forward is uncertain given that shoulder trouble that ended his season. White's dealt with shoulder trouble his entire career. We don't know how it's looking these days. But if we're going off last year's numbers, White can't afford to sacrifice any talent if he wants to hang around. Sean White was barely acceptable in peak shape. What are shoulder concerns going to do to an already iffy baseline?
Enter Kanekoa Texeira. We haven't talked about Texeira a whole lot around here, but the 24 year old Rule 5 pick seems to fit the profile of the guy the M's could use to soak up a middle inning or two. Texeira's stuff isn't extraordinary. He's got a sinking fastball in the 89-92 range, a decent slider, and a change that I can only imagine is "in development". But he's got two things going for him:
-a low (but not quite sidearm) delivery that makes him tough on righties
-a high groundball rate
If he's starting to sound like Sean Green, then congratulations, your brain works. Texeira's groundball rate has exceeded 60% in each year as a professional from rookie ball through AA, and last season his 63% was among the very highest in the Eastern League. That's a ton of groundballs, and even though GB% drops a little as one advances through the higher levels, Texeira's got a lot to give. Sean White, if you're curious, had a 49% GB% in Tacoma two years ago. Texeira has rather convincingly demonstrated a superior ability to keep the ball out of the air.
And the rest of the stuff? I don't like to put too much weight on numbers accumulated in the low- and mid-minors, but Texeira's managed a K/9 over 8 through AA, and though his walks can be a problem, that's neither surprising nor a critical concern. He's also demonstrated an ability to pitch pretty well against lefties, although given his profile as a pitcher I'd caution against assuming he'd be fine against the Adam Dunns and Adrian Gonzalezes of the world. Minor league splits be damned, I have to believe that a near-sidearming righty without much of a changeup will hit some speed bumps against advanced lefty competition.
Still, even allowing for some walks and some trouble against lefties, Texeira can miss bats and, more importantly, keep the infield busy. Busier than White can. White posted a decent GB%, a K/9 of 3.9, and a BB/9 of 2.8. Given Texeira's groundballs, is it really reasonable to suggest that he'd still be the worse Major League reliever? Throw in the fact that White has shoulder questions while Texeira, to the best of my knowledge, has stayed healthy, and I imagine any hesitation has more to do with Texeira's inexperience than with his actual ability. And inexperience isn't much of a drawback.
There are going to be a lot of guys competing for a very little bullpen opening next month. Among them, Sean White is the on-paper favorite, as he's got all the recent Major League experience and Wak really liked him when he was healthy. However, the team is aware of both his shoulder issue as well as the discrepancy between his 2009 ERA and his peripherals, and given Kanekoa Texeira's seemingly superior ability and Rule 5 status, look for him to get a lot of attention. White may be in front for the time being, but one slip-up and his job could end up going to somebody younger and probably better.
(If, say, Josh Fields wants to wow everyone and suddenly turn awesome, that'd be fine too.)
2 comments | 0 recs |
M's have excelled at keeping expensive players healthy
Since 2002, only the White Sox have paid a lower percentage of their payroll to players on the DL than the Mariners. The M's come in at 8%, against a median of 15% and a high of 27%. In terms of actual days lost, the M's come in 12th.
wOBA Explanation
I don't mean to thwart or otherwise spoil any of Graham's future plans with the 101 series, but for those of you who might be wondering why we use wOBA so often, this is an excellent and very readable rundown of what it is, and why it's necessary.
Ryan Langerhans' Contract
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 19, 2010 11:17 AM PST
in The More You Know
6 comments
This isn't a big deal at all, but it's been a source of some confusion, and it just came up again on Twitter, so I might as well address it. Ryan Langerhans, as we know, is out of options. When a player is out of options, that means that, if his team wants to send him to the minors, he has to clear waivers first. On waivers, he's available for anyone to grab, provided the claiming team sticks the player on the Major League roster. Should the player clear waivers without being claimed, however - as just happened with Yusmeiro Petit - he'll be off to his designated minor league stop.
Seems pretty straightforward. But what many people have noticed while surfing Cot's is that Langerhans has something called a split contract. So the question then becomes - does that mean the Mariners could send him to AAA without exposing him to waivers?
The answer is, no, they can't. All a split contract is is a contract stipulating different Major and minor league salaries. From Cot's:
Ryan Langerhans of
1 year/$0.525M (2010)
- 1 year/$0.525M (2010)
- re-signed by Seattle as a free agent 12/18/09
- split contract paying $90,000 in minors
What this means is that Langerhans would get paid at one rate in the Majors, and a lower rate in AAA. That's all. If he spends all year in Seattle (or with another big league club), he'll make $0.525m. If he spends half the year in the bigs and half the year in the minors, he'll make something like $0.3075m. The studious reader will note that Langerhans had a split contract last year, too. Lots of guys sign split contracts. Split contracts don't have anything to do with options. My understanding is that it's just about money.
So, no, we didn't buy an extra option year for Langerhans or anything. If we want to send him to Tacoma, he'll still have to clear waivers. And were he to clear, he would simply offer the team a little bit of salary relief.
6 comments | 0 recs |
Sabremetrics 101: Environment
by Graham on Feb 18, 2010 7:20 PM PST
in Sabermetrics 101
2 comments
We're more or less done with the highest level statistical theory, but there are some areas of baseball itself that we have to touch on before we can really begin unravel things.
Prerequisites for understanding: None
Prerequisites for derivation: Database
2 comments | 0 recs |
Felix Hernandez And The Year After Effect
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 18, 2010 5:32 PM PST
in Miscellaneous
37 comments
Smart people, ordinary people, and fans of Rick Reilly who got lost might've read Tuesday's SI article from Tom Verducci classifying Felix Hernandez as one of the pitchers at risk for the Year After Effect. For those of you who aren't familiar with it, the Year After Effect - also known as the Verducci Effect - identifies pitchers 25 or younger who threw at least 30 more innings in the most recent season than in the season before, and says that these pitchers are at great risk for injury or underperformance. Felix turns 24 this April, and, including the WBC, threw 46.2 more innings in 2009 than he did in 2008. As such, he makes the cut, alongside nine other guys like Josh Johnson and Rick Porcello.
That can seem a little distressing. After all, the Year After Effect (YAE) has noted names like Dustin McGowan, Jose Rosado and Francisco Liriano in the past. Does this mean that Felix is in trouble?
To those of you who're feeling concerned, I offer two bits of advice:
- Don't worry
- Worry just a little bit
For one thing, the YAE is more than a little arbitrary. Why 25 years old? Why 30+ innings? Why not 26 years old, or 24 years old? Why not 20+ innings, or 40+ innings? Why have buckets at all? Buckets (or groupings) can be convenient, but they're never ideal. Pitcher A, 24, increased his innings by 29. Pitcher B, 24, increased his innings by 30. Pitcher C, 24, increased his innings by 90. Pitcher D, 26, increased his innings by 150. Pitchers B and C will get classified together, while neither Pitchers A nor D will be included. That doesn't make any sense. Granted, this isn't a scientific theory and these are exaggerated hypotheticals, but life is continuous, and not a step function. 30 innings represent more wear and tear than 20 innings, but 40 is more than 30, and so on. There's a principle here, and the principle might be valid, but the selection process is flawed.
For another thing, the YAE paints with a broad brush, and as we all know, humans are snowflakes. If you thought hitters were difficult to project, try projecting pitchers. Better yet, try projecting pitchers who'll get hurt. It's hard. General principles have their place, but you can't take ten different pitchers and apply the same rule of thumb, because they're each structurally unique. Let's say, hypothetically, that 75% of all pitchers selected for the YAE fall victim. That in no way means that each pitcher has a 75% probability of falling victim, because some guys can simply withstand the rigors of pitching a lot, and other guys can't. You have to treat each guy individually. What do we have with Felix?
We have a guy who had shoulder bursitis in 2005 and a forearm strain in 2007, and no other arm trouble.
We have a guy who's made 126 starts the last four years.
We have a guy who's thrown 191, 190.1, 200.2, and 238.2 innings the last four years.
We have a guy who got stronger as the season went on last year, a guy who didn't show any kind of velocity loss.
We have a guy whose workload has been closely monitored, even if it seems like it hasn't been.
We can't personally investigate Felix's shoulder and elbow to see how they're doing. I suppose it's possible they could be on the brink of obliteration. The Mariners, though, have presumably done their homework, here, and on the macroscopic level, there's no reason at all to believe that Felix can't handle a big workload. While he was worked hard, he gave every indication that he was up to it. To say that alarm bells should be sounding just because he meets two basic statistical criteria...no, that's too simplistic. You have to consider more, and the 'more' seems to work in Felix's favor.
Finally, I like both David Gassko and Jeremy Greenhouse, and they've investigated the YAE - Gassko in 2006, and Greenhouse this morning. Greenhouse's research is the reason I'm writing this post, actually. Guess what they've found out, independent of one another? Nothing. They can't find an effect. You can argue with their analytical methods if you so desire, and it's certainly not conclusive, but you'd think they would've been able to pick up on an effect if one existed, and they didn't. The burden of proof, then, lies on those advancing the theory. We should expect Felix to, say, throw fewer innings in 2010 than he did in 2009, but that's simple regression to the mean, because 238.2 innings is an extraordinary total.
Overall, I wouldn't worry about Felix's inclusion in the group. The YAE is a nice theory, and its heart is in the right place - young pitchers shouldn't be ridden too hard, because young pitchers are valuable and delicate. But its grouping method is poor, it addresses pitchers in general rather than specifically Felix, and no one has found any evidence that it's real. It'd be one thing if Felix went from 120 innings to 240. That'd be an alarming jump. But 200 to 240? If Felix gets hurt, or gets worse (I know, I know), I'd prefer to just chalk it up to the hazards of pitching than some handy rule of thumb, because it turns out pitching is dangerous.
And that's why I think it's reasonable to generally worry just a little bit. Because even if you don't put much stock in the YAE, pitching is dangerous, and perhaps more significant than Felix's ~40 inning jump are the 820 innings he's thrown the last four years. I guess that kind of depends on your perspective. Some would call that a heavy workload. Others would call it proof that Felix is more Randy Johnson than Kerry Wood. I'm not qualified to offer any sort of evaluation. Forgetting that, though, we're still dealing with the fact that pitching puts a terrific strain on the body, and Felix's continued health isn't guaranteed. It's not something to take for granted. Is he at special risk because he's young and threw 40 more innings? I don't think it's significant. Is he at risk because he's a pitcher? Sadly, yeah. I don't like to think about this any more than you do, but it is something we just have to keep in mind, and given that we could have another 500 Felix Days or just one more Felix Day, I implore you to treat each as if it were the last. Felix's is an arm to be treasured, for as long as it lives.
37 comments | 0 recs |
LL Podcast
by Matthew on Feb 18, 2010 2:00 PM PST
in Podcasts
52 comments
This week's topics incude:
Russell Branyan (1:00)
Jarrod Washburn (9:15)
Jeff's Overwhelmed post (17:30)
and from there we get into various little topics such as the Mets, Willy Taveras, writing, volcano movies and so forth
52 comments | 0 recs |
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