Signs of Damage to Public Trust in Climate Findings
CBS News has run a report summarizing fallout from the illegal distribution of climate scientists' email messages and files and problems with the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The conclusion is that missteps and mistakes are creating broader credibility problems for climate science.[UPDATE, 2/8: Elisabeth Rosenthal has filed a piece reviewing [...]
Share your thoughts.
182 Readers' Comments
The chairman of the U.N.'s IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, has said "global warming skeptics are like people who see no difference between cancer-causing asbestos and talcum powder" and "I hope that they apply it (asbestos) to their faces every day."
The worlds leading spokesman for Climate Change action is now wishing for death of his critics. This makes me question the whole affair even more. This man has got to be fired from his post.
'There has been an increase in the number of British people who are sceptical about climate change, a poll commissioned by BBC News has suggested.'
http://news.bbc.co.uk...
"Summary:
http://ncwatch.typepad.com...
It has been shown above that low altitude cloud cover closely follows cosmic ray flux; that the galactic cosmic ray flux has the periodicities of the glacial/interglacial cycles; that a decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux was coincident with Termination II [the warming that initiated the Eemian, the last interglacial] ; and that the most likely initiator for Termination II was a consequent decrease in Earth’s albedo.
The temperature of past interglacials was higher than today most likely as a consequence of a lower global albedo due to a decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth’s atmosphere. In addition, the galactic cosmic ray intensity exhibits a 100 kyr periodicity over the last 200 kyr that is in phase with the glacial terminations of this period. Carbon dioxide appears to play a very limited role in setting interglacial temperature."
http://ncwatch.typepad.com...
"The Indian government has established its own body to monitor the effects of global warming because it “cannot rely” on the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the group headed by its own leading scientist Dr R.K Pachauri. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk...
A United Nations report wrongly claimed that more than half of the Netherlands is currently below sea level.
"In fact, just 20 percent of the country consists of polders that are pumped dry, and which are at risk of flooding if global warming causes rising sea levels. Dutch Environment Minister Jacqueline Cramer has ordered a thorough investigation into the quality of the climate reports which she uses to base her policies on."
I seriously doubt that 'Humpty Dumpty' can ever be put back together again, and thankfully so, perhaps now we can get away from ideology and cults of personality and mystique, an on with solid hard science.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humpty_Dumpty
Best Wishes
Andy, I know you hate to focus on short term variations but you will probably want to make an exception in this case.
It is obvious that if one builds a case on computer modeling that is heavily reliant on statistical analyses, the statistics must be robust enough to withstand careful review by highly qualified statisticians. If they fail this test then the argument must fail on its merits. Anyone who has doubts about the qualifications of Wegman and his co-workers should do a simple search and review their CV's. Res ipsa loquitor,as the lawyers say.
If this isn't sufficient, there exists considerable controversy regarding the quality of the databases that underlie all of the statistical analyses. These, too, may be foud with straight forward web searches.
Every time I've referred acquaintances who wanted to learn about the climate to Dot Earth or Real Climate, they've commented back about how rude, hostile, and belittling the proponents are.
And I don't even mean the blatant Romm/Hansen blasts about locking away deniers and coal trains being Holocaust death cars. I'm referring to continual, underlying condescension from the most radical proponents who comment on this blog (and write for Real Climate).
The statements that skeptics must not understand science, have a hidden agenda, cannot think for themselves, are paid by industry, have been brainwashed by Fox News and Glenn Beck, or otherwise just hate the environment are a daily theme. But this attempt to claim a moral and righteous high ground has alienated 75% of the nation by telling them that not only are they wrong, but they're also stupid.
And, unfortunately, the tactic has destroyed the ability to have a rational conversation about energy policy.
It reminds me of when the extreme anti-abortion wackos were bombing clinics and claiming that even women who were raped couldn't have an abortion at 6 weeks. It was so extreme that the majority of the public swung toward more liberal abortion rights. And now that the wackos are generally out of the press, the public has drifted back the other way.
So, to those proponents of AGW theory who are certain you are right: you'll help your cause a lot more by being gracious. But many of suspect that this isn't about helping a cause; rather, for you, it's about being righteous, superior, and hating the rest of mankind who doesn't fit into your club.
Have you considered the possibility that people are waking up to the multi-billion warmist funding gravy train simply because "wolf" has been cried too many times?
"An Inconvenient Truth" is almost four years old and doomsday as peddled by Al Gore has yet to even begin to trend. People are beginning to realize it was all a scam.
Some know history and some have lived long enough to see some of the greater good crowd’s prior works.
Others stick to there guns to the bitter end as it is always a blow to ego to admit that you were a fish that took the bait. They almost always are devoid of any knowledge of historic attempts to make things fair for everyone and the results.
I prefer an alternate method and that is to profit as much as possible from the confusion that ensues. “Where there is confusion there is money to be made”.
Take the profit potential but don’t take one side or the other long term. Just feign which side you are on as a given profit potential requires.
IPCC made an error in a 987 page report. Criminals, likely paid for by the fossil fuel industry, burglarize and mine 13 years' worth of emails, and Mann is found to have said something bitchy, and some language was taken out of context. The deniers get up in arms, and the public is suckered by the big "scandal".
This has nothing to do with scientific truth or integrity. It's all about powerful interests lying like hell, and using their friends in the media to repeat them.
University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit, CRU, is the global center for merging weather reports. CRU had incoherent data sets. They force fit the data to their model of global warming. This is not science. The climatologists involved in the carbon dioxide global warming fraud are not scientists. They are bureaucrats masquerading as scholars. They are scamming to raise funds. The cabal of scammers fabricated the artificial 'anthropological global warming' and unfounded 'greenhouse gas' concept. They include Prof Jones and his employees at East Anglia Climate Research Unit, Prof Mann and associates at Penn State, United Nations IPCC, NASA Goddard, and WMO World Meteorological Organization. In total they number perhaps 25 people, but they sat in positions of influence and were funded by the United Nations and US research grants.
A tax on carbon dioxide would hobble US industrial production. Business would relocate to more enlightened economies such as China, India, and Korea. Jobs would vanish. The depression would be prolonged.
The physics of light tell us that atmospheric carbon dioxide cannot trap heat, and cannot influence climate. That is all ye know, and all ye need to know: http://nov55.com/ntyg.html 200 years of physics is more difficult to erase than 1000 years of climate data.
References:
We have copies of the computer programs they used at East Anglie University Climate Research Unit. The computer programmer commented every time he fudged the thousand years of raw data to fit the shape of Al Gore's hockey stick hoax. The programmer called it a "fudge factor". He added a couple degrees to the numbers that were too cold and subtracted a couple degrees when it was too warm. The recent global cooling after 1998 was just left off the graph. The whole graph is a fabrication. They obscured the little ice age and the medieval warm period, much warmer than today yet with much lower levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide than today. When confronted with the crime and asked for the raw data to reconstruct the climate history they destroyed one thousand years of publicly funded raw climate data. The Professor resigned in disgrace after he was caught. Hoax detailed:
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org... Green-Handed Climategate Scandal.pdf
"It is not reasonable to conclude that there is any endangerment from changes in greenhouse gas levels based on the satellite record" National Center for Environmental Economics, US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY.
http://cei.org...
CO2 Absorption Spectrum: There is no Valid Mechanism for CO2 Creating Global Warming
http://nov55.com/ntyg.html
Comparison graphs of the Al Gore Hockey stick hoax and real climate change over the past 1000 years:
http://www.examiner.com...
The atmospheric greenhouse effect, an idea that many authors trace back to the traditional works of Fourier (1824), Tyndall (1861), and Arrhenius (1896), and which is still supported in global climatology, essentially describes a fictitious mechanism, in which a planetary atmosphere acts as a heat pump driven by an environment that is radiatively interacting with but radiatively equilibrated to the atmospheric system. According to the second law of thermodynamics such a planetary machine can never exist. Nevertheless, in almost all texts of global climatology and in a widespread secondary literature it is taken for granted that such mechanism is real and stands on a firm scientific foundation. In this paper the popular conjecture is analyzed and the underlying physical principles are clarified. By showing that (a) there are no common physical laws between the warming phenomenon in glass houses and the fictitious atmospheric green- house effects, (b) there are no calculations to determine an average surface temperature of a planet, (c) the frequently mentioned difference of 33 ◦ C is a meaningless number calculated wrongly, (d) the formulas of cavity radiation are used inappropriately, (e) the assumption of a radiative balance is unphysical, (f ) thermal conductivity and friction must not be set to zero, the atmospheric greenhouse conjecture is falsified.
http://arxiv.org/pdf/0707.1161v4
coverup:
http://biggovernment.com...
Laugh or cry?
Suppose Barack and Michelle are seen having a quick disagreement. The media sensationalize the event, vilify one or both of them, claim that the disagreement is "unlikely" to have Obama's entire presidency come undone, but call the disagreement "sinister," call for Obama to step down, and fundamentally misrepresent the original disagreement.
Repeated unsubstantiated claims are made in the media, starting early on, wrt how the disagreement (!) has damaged the public's trust in the president/presidency.
Then claims are made in the media about how other parts of the media are "concluding" that the public's trust has been damaged BY THE DISAGREEMENT (!!!) (as opposed to by the mis/disinformation in the media).
(Note, though, that, e.g., Cicerone at least explicitly included the "publicity" as a component in the "incident.")
Question: Do you see any need for "changes in your practices," when you don't even address the role of sensationalism in all of this (supposed damage to the public's trust)?
Or is sensationalism a "fleeting inconvenience"?
How is ignoring the elephant in the room helpful in your knowledge-building effort?
Thank you.
"I urge readers to see McIntyre's remarks at ClimateAudit.com, about Cicerone 'then and now'."
___________
The correct Climate Audit link for the story on Cicerone (then and now) is — http://climateaudit.org/
http://www.aip.org...
difficult to understand?
What I wonder about, as those in opposition to the notion of global warming quibble over mis-statements or verbal snafu's, is how long it will be before our immense oceans will no longer be capable of absorbing the excessive levels of heat mankind continues to generate without there being evidence of a tipping point.
"My reading of the vast scientific literature on climate change is that our understanding is undiminished by this incident"
Our understanding of climate is based almost entirely on complex and unverified climate models and we depend on the scientists who build them to be professionals that would admit that the models failed if that is what the evidence says.
Unfortunately, all of these revelations tell us we cannot depend on the scientists to be ethical professionals which means we cannot trust claims based on these computer models. The net result is our understanding of the science has most definitely diminished significantly.
Is right on the money and we get paid pretty well. How are you doing I wonder.
It's that vast conspiracy of those evil deniers that have caused true science to be questioned. How dare they question science? Science isn't about questioning things, it's about proving computer models are correct. If the models fail just change the data and sleep well.
Excerpt from George Monbiot's blog, February 2, 2010
"Pachauri is also taking a lot of heat for his outside interests, though he insists that the allegations made against him are flat wrong. It's worth remembering that he was appointed to run the IPCC after the Bush administration had his predecessor, Bob Watson, booted out at the behest of ExxonMobil. On 6 February 2001, 17 days after George W. Bush was sworn in, A. G. (Randy) Randol, ExxonMobil's senior environmental adviser, sent a fax to John Howard, an environmental official at the White House. He asked,
"Can Watson be replaced now at the request of the US?"
The US government immediately complied. Once it had extracted Watson, it accepted Pachauri as his replacement. The very qualities which made him acceptable to the climate change deniers in the White House %u2013 he wasn't a climate scientist, he had friendly relations with business %u2013 are now being used by climate change deniers as a stick with which to beat him."
http://j.mp/02pachauri
SUV 4X4 time.
Trying to change public opinion using the logic and rationality of science and scientists just doesn't and won't work. As is obvious from any scare campaign, people are emotionally swayed by the unscrupulous villains, nothing rational or logical about it, especially when they want to be swayed and when they do not have the knowledge or wherewithall to find the facts.
A PR campaign of the scale being waged by vested interests and those who prey on the fearful and gullible will only ever be won with a PR campaign to win hearts and minds. Fear is a powerful motivator and when people feel helpless they will always tend to stick their heads in the sand and grab onto any glimmer of hope that the truth is not the truth.
People like to be in control. They need to know there is a solution that will not be too painful and they need to feel they are doing something good and can act, or that at least those in power can act so the people don't have to.
What good does it do to shout 'the end of the world is nighe'? It's solutions that work that people will respond to. And solutions that leave some control with individuals and do not cost the earth.
Who will care where the electricity comes from as long as it's available. Who will care whether their car runs on natural gas or battery, as long as it gets them from a to b.
It's the people who make decisions at that level who must be convinced to take the leadership and quietly make good decisions in the best interest of all. Does any political or business leader really want to go down in history for being responsible for letting the world go to rack and ruin? (Well, maybe some don't care but enough would care.)
Scientists are taking a knee-jerk reaction and they shouldn't. It makes them appear 'guilty' in the mind of the public.
One error Roddy? How about the fact the IPCC scientists peer-review each other. How about the Amazon. How about the glaciers in the Himilayas. How about the debunked "storms are getting greater" theory. How about the info on glaciers in the alps all being "anecdotal". How about Michael Mann's "Hide the Decline" graph? How about the falsification of the amount of actual sea rise? How about the arctic ice growing the fastest in it's 30-year tracking history in the past two years?
How long can you Alarmists continue to be the real Deniers?
"The Netherlands is an example of a country highly susceptible to both sea-level rise and river flooding because 55% of its territory is below sea level where 60% of its population lives and 65% of its Gross National Product (GNP) is produced."
Did any of those supposed 2500 scientists actually READ this thing? Maybe the real truth is in Pachauri's soft-core paperback.
http://www.guardian.co.uk...
Global warming Alarmists make up fantasies about fossil fuel industry burglaries without anything resembling a fact or shred of truth.
We know, we know. It's just a flesh wound, Black Knight.
Log In to Post a Comment