SciGuy

February 09, 2010

NASA chief seeks new exploration ideas; "No holds barred."

NASA administrator Charles Bolden laughed when I asked him about the possibility of a one-way mission to Mars, so I don't think it's necessarily on the table.

But he did acknowledge that people with ideas about where and how the space program should send humans to explore, even radical ideas, have an opportunity.

I have told people to give us every idea imaginable through their center director or through their mission directorate associate administrator. I've said, no holds barred.

As I explained to the JSC workforce this morning, the message I'm trying to get to them is that the door is open to any suggestions that they might have on new ways or enhanced ways that we can do the kinds of things that we've always wanted to do in a more efficient, effective manner. And hopefully quicker.

While I don't hold out a lot of hope that something's going to come, somebody may come in with a wild and crazy idea, and we get back to the lunar surface by 2019.

Among all of NASA's programs its plan for human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit is probably among the least well defined. So there's a chance to remake the vision.

And if you're looking for a bright side to the fact that NASA probably won't fly humans beyond Earth orbit before at least 2030, and its potential impact on Johnson Space Center, that's probably it.

Posted by Eric Berger at 07:18 AM in Space | Comments (13)
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February 08, 2010

Heat, humidity & humor: Your weekly weather

Welcome to your Monday morning weather update in which I'll attempt to sum up the immediate past, present and future of weather on the bayou. Below find a look ahead a look at a possible freeze, and an extended outlook for February which looks quite cold.

PAST

The watchword for last week was gloomy, at least until the weekend. It was cool, and there was at least a trace of rain each week day.

Saturday turned out a beautiful winter day with ample sun and highs in the mid-60s. Alas, as we'll find out below, sunshine and warm temperatures will be rare commodities in the week ahead.

Anyway, let's do the numbers:

Date	High T	Low T	Average	Departure	Rainfall
Monday	49	36	43	-10	0.01
Tuesday	59	48	54	+1	Trace
Wednesday	54	47	51	-2	0.83
Thursday	55	47	51	-2	0.24
Friday	60	45	53	-1	Trace
Saturday	63	41	52	-2	0.00
Sunday	53	38	45	-9	0.00
Average	56.1	43.1	49.6	-3.5	1.08

PRESENT

Do you like it chilly and wet outside? Have I got a deal for you. Today's high temperature in the rainy 60s will likely be the week's warmest day, and it's possible we'll have three straight days this week -- Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday -- in which highs never climb out of the 40s. That's rare for mid-February.

This is because a strong Canadian cold front should rapidly descend upon Houston Tuesday. Whether areas just north of Houston get a light freeze Tuesday night depends how quickly skies clear after the front's passage. If it happens before sunset there will be plenty of time for the day's heat to bleed away without an insulating area of clouds.

The following graphic from the National Weather Service for Tuesday night's lows shows the best chance of a freeze lies to the north and east of Houston.

National Weather Service .

A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across Houston this afternoon and evening ahead of the front, and in what has become a familiar pattern this winter, a low-pressure system off the coast will likely bring showers to the area from Wednesday night through Friday morning.

There's a chance of a wintry mix of precipitation later in the week, but likely only for areas well to the north of metro Houston. So once again most days this week will be gloomy, with a solid chance of rain.

There's not a great chance of seeing much sun this weekend, either.

FUTURE

This time of year we normally see a marked rise in normal daily high and overnight low temperatures, to the upper 60s and upper 40s respectively. However, the medium-term outlook for the next 10 days looks quite cold, rather than showing much of a warming trend.

In fact, several long-range forecasts show much-below normal temperatures persisting across much of the Southern United States.

Here's the 11-15 day outlook from MDA EarthSat Weather, which is much the same as the 6-10 day outlook for Texas.

MDA EarthSat Much below temperatures are 8 to 14 degrees below normal.

For Houston this likely means highs in the mid-50s for a while, with lows in the upper 30s or lower 40s. Of course there are no guarantees with long-term outlooks, but at the present time it looks like the middle of February will be cold.

SUMMARY

If Gene Norman can have a number to describe the daily weather, I can have one for the week. But my scale, instead of 1-10, is going to change every week. Sometimes it won't even be an integer. Sometimes it will be irrational. This week's scale goes from 0 to 21,000 (the amount, in dollars, raised for a Fulshear teen with terminal cancer who wants to go on a great adventure).

My number: 7,800

Posted by Eric Berger at 08:33 AM in Weather | Comments (13)
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Endeavour ascends successfully to orbit

In what may be the final night launch of a space shuttle, Endeavour made a picturesque launch against a black Florida sky Monday morning.

The launch came after mission managers' concerns about the weather dissipated as did a low-level cloud deck above the launch pad. Unlike Sunday morning, Mother Nature cooperated and on its second launch opportunity a vehicle that had no technical issues was free to fly.

"It's time to go fly," said Endeavour commander George Zamka minutes before the launch. And indeed it was.

NASA TV The shuttle's main engines fired.

With just five shuttle flights remaining, mission managers said this is probably the last night launch barring major technical issues that throw the launch schedule off track for the rest of the year. Night launches are prized for their magnificence; it's like the difference between the visibility of fireworks at day and night.

NASA TV Endeavour ascends into the cosmos.

The 13-day mission will deliver a new module, the Tranquility node, and a cupola to the International Space Station, with Endeavour's crew installing both. The new node will provide more work room inside the station and the cupola will provide a window onto the universe.

So much work remains ahead of the astronauts, but they may have gotten past the hardest part this morning, that which they cannot control.

The weather in Florida.

Posted by Eric Berger at 03:37 AM in Space | Comments (3)
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February 07, 2010

Tracking the second attempt to launch Endeavour

After Sunday morning's scrub of Endeavour, NASA will try again to get the shuttle into orbit early Monday at 3:14 a.m. CT.

With just five flights remaining in the shuttle program, the space agency is counting on Endeavour to deliver two main components to the International Space Station, a new room -- the Tranquility node -- and a cupola that will afford a grand view of the cosmos.

The weather, which scuttled Sunday's attempt, may be better this go round. There's a 60 percent chance of acceptable weather at launch, according to spaceflight meteorologists.

I'll update this entry below during major milestones of the countdown.

Will Endeavour get off the launch pad early Monday?

9:00 p.m. UPDATE: The fueling of Endeavour has been completed and thus far there have been no technical issues with the countdown. And although the weather rules were violated earlier this evening, conditions for launch are presently "go."

10:30 p.m. UPDATE: No change in the weather status for tonight's flight, there remains a 60 percent chance of acceptable conditions at launch time. The crew is making final preparations before leaving for the launch pad.

10:40 p.m. UPDATE: Lt. Col. Patrick Barrett reports that, "We are fairly confident that we'll have good weather for launch." This is because today's pattern has clouds coming in off the Atlantic, which are a little bit more broken apart than yesterday's pattern. "The weather conditions look to have turned around in our favor tonight."

NASA TV Endeavour's crew leaves their quarters for the launch pad.

11:25 p.m. UPDATE: Endeavour's crew has departed for the launch pad in the iconic AstroVan.

11:55 p.m. UPDATE: The crew has arrived at the launch pad and is preparing to begin entering the vehicle. Commander George Zamka will be the first to board, as is his prerogative.

NASA TV Zamka prepares to board.

12:45 a.m. UPDATE: Weather conditions for a launch have flipped to "red," meaning the shuttle could not launch at this time.

1:05 a.m. UPDATE: The crew has all clambered aboard the shuttle, including mission specialist Steve Robinson, who had to have a forgotten data pad rush delivered to the launch site.

1:15 a.m. UPDATE: Endeavour's hatch is closed.

1:45 a.m. UPDATE: A blanket of low-level clouds above the launch pad has persisted, and the weather remains a "no go" for launch.

2:15 a.m. UPDATE: In addition to bad weather in Florida, all three of NASA's European Landing Sites -- in case an emergency landing is necessary -- presently have bad weather. At least one must have good weather for a launch.

NASA will need some help from Mother Nature if this is going to happen this morning.

2:30 a.m. UPDATE: Current weather conditions at Kennedy Space Center are now "green" for launch, and weather officer Kathy Winters said it now looks "promising" for good weather in 45 minutes at the preferred liftoff time.

NASA There were no technical issues at T-9 minutes and holding, only weather concerns.

2:45 a.m. UPDATE: Of the three European landing sites, Zaragoza Air Base in Spain presently has the best weather and is now the primary site in case an emergency landing should be necessary.

3:00 a.m. UPDATE: Pete Nickolenko, a NASA launch director, says officials at the launch site are "very optimistic" that they will be able to fly Endeavour this morning as weather conditions continue to look good.

3:05 a.m. UPDATE: Endeavour has been given a green light to go.

3:13 a.m. UPDATE: Probable last night launch. Enjoy.

3:14 a.m. UPDATE: Launch!

3:22 a.m. UPDATE: Endeavour has safely reached orbit around Earth. Their first sight? A sunrise.

Posted by Eric Berger at 09:00 PM in Space | Comments (8)
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Endeavour launch attempt scrubbed due to weather

NASA's attempt to fly Endeavour failed this morning because low clouds around the launch site were too thick to allow the vehicle to safely ascend to orbit.

The 13-day mission to deliver to large new components the International Space Station will now likely be delayed a day, with the launch time reset to 3:14 a.m. CT on Monday.

The early forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of "go" weather conditions at Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

NASA TV Endeavour couldn't get off the pad early Sunday morning.

During Sunday's countdown the weather teetered back and forth between acceptable and unacceptable cloud conditions. After clearing about an hour before the launch time, the clouds began to thicken again and the weather situation became too dynamic for a launch.

About 20 minutes before the scheduled liftoff, launch director Mike Leinbach declared that the weather conditions were "outside of my experience base," and he radioed the six crew members awaiting aboard Endeavour.

"We tried really really hard to work the weather," Leinbach said. "It was just too dynamic. We're not comfortable launching the space shuttle tonight."

By then it was actually morning, of course.

"Sometimes you just gotta make the call, and we understand," replied Endeavour's commander, George Zamka. "We'll give it another try tomorrow night."

And so NASA will mobilize tonight even as the Super Bowl is being played. The cosmos waits for no mere football contest.

Posted by Eric Berger at 03:43 AM in Space | Comments (3)
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February 06, 2010

Starting at 3 a.m. today, follow shuttle's launch live

UPDATE: See full entry on scrub.

Good evening.

Tonight we're watching the countdown efforts toward the launch of space shuttle Endeavour, the fifth last flight of the space shuttle program. Endeavour is set to deliver key parts to the International Space Station.

The crew has been awakened for launch "day" and has begun preparations for an expected launch time of 3:39 a.m. CT on Sunday. Yes, it's going to be a long night for those of you following at home. Fortunately, the weather looks good with an 80 percent chance of go conditions.

Endeavour on the pad during STS-108.

I'll update major developments in the countdown below.

8:20 p.m. UPDATE: Fueling operations are about 90 minutes under way tonight and so far everything is proceeding as planned. The weather outlook remains good.

9:45 p.m. UPDATE: The fueling process for Endeavour has been completed with nary a problem. All remains on schedule for the early morning launch of the shuttle.

10:50 p.m. UPDATE: The chances of an acceptable launch have fallen to 60 percent due to scattered clouds and launch pad winds.

11:55 p.m. UPDATE: The crew has left their quarters and is en route to the launch pad, where space shuttle Endeavour awaits.

1:30 a.m. UPDATE: Bad news on the weather front this morning, as low clouds in the area have lowered the chance of acceptable weather at launch to 30 percent.

In the meantime, all crew members have now boarded Endeavour and the vehicle's hatch is being closed.

2:45 a.m. UPDATE: The clouds have cleared sufficiently such that current weather conditions are "go" for a launch. Let's hope the good weather holds for the next hour. There continue to be indications that the cloud deck is scattering, according forecaster Kathy Winters.

3:15 a.m. UPDATE: The clouds have thickened again around the launch pad and conditions are presently "red" for launch.

3:25 a.m. UPDATE: This morning's launch is still constrained by poor weather, in this case the thickness of clouds above the launch pad.

3:30 a.m. UPDATE: Scrubbed!

Posted by Eric Berger at 12:57 PM in Space | Comments (11)
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Bolden: No heavy-lift capability until 2020s, at least

In a wide-ranging meeting with the media this morning, NASA Administrator Charles Bolden outlined his vision for the future of the space agency. According to Bolden:

Bolden at Marshall Spaceflight Center.

• Mars should be the ultimate destination for humans in the solar system.

• NASA is committed to developing a heavy-lift launch vehicle, meaning a large enough rocket to lift the requisite fuel and supplies to send people beyond low-Earth orbit for an extended period of time.

• That heavy-lift capability will not be ready until sometime between 2020 and 2030, and if it's ready by then it will require "hope" and "miracles."

• To safely reach Mars, Bolden believes NASA probably needs to send humans back to the moon, and fly around interplanetary space a bit to gain experience and safety data.

• Unlike Constellation's Ares V program, the heavy-lift capability "is going to be an international effort. We are going to expand our efforts with our international partners."

The big news here, to me, is that the International Space Station's model of international partnership will be expanded to developing NASA's exploration program beyond low-Earth orbit.

"My approach to all of this is that, in a true international partnership, when one of us succeeds, all of us succeeds," Bolden said. "We need to engage our international partners. There is no question in my mind ... that our international partnerships will become stronger."

This, of course, means that international partners will share not only in the glory of reaching new destinations in space, but in the costs as well.

The troubling aspect of all this remains the fact that there are no firm timelines whatsoever for NASA putting humans beyond low-Earth orbit. In listening to Bolden, who did his best to charm the media ("Please, call me Charlie"), it seems likely that humans won't go beyond low-Earth orbit until the 2030s.

That's nearly seven decades since we first went to the moon.

Congress will have a lot to say about these issues as well, and Bolden acknowledged that he as a lot of work to do to negotiate with them.

I'll have an extended discussion with Bolden on Tuesday, at which time I'll ask a number of questions specific to Houston and Johnson Space Center. I'd welcome suggested questions below.

Posted by Eric Berger at 09:43 AM in Space | Comments (21)
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February 05, 2010

Human origins expert: On Bigfoot, the first primates and the boring essence of good science

On Tuesday night anthropologist Todd Disotell (see details) will speak at the Houston Museum of Natural Science about his work. Disotell is an expert on human origins, including the first primates and how humans became humans.

Below is a Q&A I conducted with him this week in advance of his visit. As a bonus, I have five pairs of tickets to give to the lecture. At 5:30 p.m. Saturday I'll randomly select five winners from the comments below, but only for those commenters who indicate they are able to attend in the comment.

I'll update this post at that time with the winners so you can make plans accordingly. Now, onto the discussion:

A few decades ago, before DNA came along, how much confidence did paleoanthropologists have in the fossil record of primates and early humans?

The problem with fossils is they are definitive evidence of something existing at a certain time. So if you find a fossil at 10 million years and you've properly identified it - this is not a trivial issue - it guarantees you that that entire lineage of organisms existed 10 million years ago. But you don't know if they also existed 20 or 30 million years ago. So it gives you an upper limit, but that's it. And that's where a whole bunch of the big debate and argument today are. In fact, literally two weeks ago, someone published an article claiming primates go back 200 million years, even though the oldest primate fossil is only from 55 million years ago.

How has DNA changed all of this?

DNA allows us, when used properly, and as importantly when good interpretation of the fossil record allow us to calibrate our DNA clock, it allows us to fill in the blanks for groups for which there might not even be a single fossil. For instance, gibbons, the small apes of Southeast Asia, we have some fossil gibbons but there only like 2 or 3 million years old. We know that they're 15 to 20 million years old, but in the tropical forests of Southeast Asia there's not a lot of fossils.

Todd Disotell

What are some of the major surprises we've learned DNA records?

Probably the biggest surprise is that most of the dates sort of estimated from the fossil record turn out to be much too old. At one point in time we humans, chimpanzees and gorillas split 15 or 20 million years ago. We now that that's 6 million years ago. In fact we've discovered a lot of lineages are far more recent than we assumed, and a few are much more ancient. But those are the ones for which there basically wasn't a fossil record. So things like macaques and baboons, the paleontologists would tell you it's about 7 million years, our data says 10 million years ago. That's a 45 percent error.

Does this indicate the first primates were around earlier than previously thought?

There's been a series of articles and researchers over the last decade claiming that primates are much older than we thought, but in fact our most recent analyses suggest they're much younger than those researchers are proposing. I'm actually in the absurd position, despite being a molecular guy, of arguing that the primate fossil record is pretty good. But they're saying, "Oh no, we're missing 50 or 75 percent of it." And we're actually arguing no, for some groups, it's really good. And for a few it's not as bad as you're claiming. They're literally saying ,"The oldest fossil anyone can definitively call a primate is 55 million years old. Surely the oldest primate must go back 100 million years." We're saying "No, maybe 67 million years."

Was Ardi or Lucy the more scientifically significant paleoanthropological find?

Lucy was literally groundbreaking in that we had nothing like that before, and it just so helped us. Ardi is a beautiful specimen. It tells us a whole bunch of things, and it's really sound science, but it's really not groundbreaking. It's solid in the sense that it's confirmatory. It's not like we learned something completely new and unexpected. Ardi actually supports our previously unconfirmed hypotheses. And that's great science. You do a bunch of tests and find that your estimates were right. That is the boring essence of good science. Every new discovery can't be a game-changer. Occasionally you need to confirm previous results. And Ardi, in my mind, is a really good confirmation, whereas Lucy, while we had other australopithecines that told us they were bipedal, gave us the first real big batch of raw data that demonstrated that well.

There recently was some controversy over whether humans are more closely related to chimpanzees or orangutans. Is there any doubt in your mind?

Not at all. We have literally examined the entire genomes of humans, chimps, gorillas, macaques and orangutans, and it's like 100 to zero. Usually is science it's 82 to 12 to 5. I really wasn't shocked, but that hypothesis is absolutely not viable. We carried out exactly the same kinds of analysis, using DNA, that they did with morphological characters. I'm using the entire genome and they're using the fact that they can smile with their lips closed and have a receding hairline. You tell me which data is better.

What are the biggest remaining scientific questions in your field?

What makes us human? We are not chimps, but we share a very recent common ancestor with them. That ancestor was more chimp-like than like us. The profound differences between us an chimps with so little genetic difference, what is with that? It really intrigues me.

In a world of ubiquitous mobile phone cameras, why are there never photos taken of reported Big Foot sightings?

Honest answer? They're not out there. Sorry. I would love it. What is the probability of a large, greater than 100-pound mammal -- and you can't have one, you've got to have two, and they would be too inbred, so you've got to have hundreds to survive for millennia -- in North America with people actively looking for them, and with every forest in this country swarming with hunters? Why haven't we? I've tested 50 samples. I've said over and over, "I will analyze credible data because I either do good science and debunk it, or I have the find of the century." Either way, as a scientist, it's no lose. Tenure helps.

UPDATE: The winners are Chris, A21CAV, gabriellyn, EdT and Old Gringo Stan.

Posted by Eric Berger at 11:14 AM in Paleoanthropology | Comments (28)
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February 04, 2010

Our best look yet at Pluto

The Hubble Space Telescope team has released a new set of images today, providing our best glimpse yet of the dwarf planet Pluto. Here's one of them:

NASA, ESA, and M. Buie

If you're unimpressed, consider that before today the best publicly available image of Pluto was the following picture:

Southwest Research Institute

Here's what astronomers say about the new set of Pluto images:

Hubble's view isn't sharp enough to see craters or mountains, if they exist on the surface, but Hubble reveals a complex-looking and variegated world with white, dark-orange, and charcoal-black terrain. The overall color is believed to be a result of ultraviolet radiation from the distant Sun breaking up methane that is present on Pluto's surface, leaving behind a dark, molasses-colored, carbon-rich residue.

The center disk (shown in the image above) has a mysterious bright spot that is unusually rich in carbon monoxide frost. This region will be photographed in the highest possible detail when NASA's New Horizons probe flies by Pluto in 2015.

Some astronomers hope this mission to Pluto, when it begins sending data back in five years, will provide enough detail to make a strong case to restore Pluto as one of the solar system's planets.

Posted by Eric Berger at 12:37 PM in Astronomy | Comments (27)
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How a 'grim reaper' cat may sense human death

Three years ago a Rhode Island geriatrician named Dr. David Dosa described the curious life of Oscar the cat in the New England Journal of Medicine (see article). In short, Oscar, 2, had an uncanny ability to predict the death of residents at a nursing home by paying a visit to their room.

He's now done so for more than 50 patients, and Dosa has authored a book, Making the Rounds with Oscar, that was released this week.

But can animals really perceive imminent death? And if so, how? For the answers I turned to Bonnie Beaver, a veterinarian and professor in Texas A&M University's College of Veterinary Medicine. Here's our conversation.

How is it possible for a cat to perceive an oncoming death?

There are a couple of possibilities, but we don't know for sure. We see similar types of things in dogs, it just tends to be more unusual when we hear about it in a cat. One possibility is that body language changes. Animals are very sensitive to body language. Humans are terribly insensitive to it. So the fact that this cat doesn't want a lot to do with people who are up and moving, but is much more interested in someone who isn't moving very much is one possibility. Another is that because their sensory capabilities are very different from ours, they may actually pick up on an odor we don't smell, or they hear sounds that we don't hear. Their smell and hearing are different than ours. I typically think odor because I have read about dogs that do the same thing.

NEJM Oscar: The face of the grim reaper?

Is this normal behavior for cats, or is it an anomaly?

It's an anomaly. When you first read that kind of an article, you can imagine a patient's reaction, "Oh gosh, here comes the cat, I'm dying." But in the article it describes the daughter of one of the ladies that passed away as saying she actually felt comfort in knowing the cat was there. That somebody was there. And the cat gave the daughter comfort by being there.

Are there other things that pets can sense in humans about their health?

Oh yes. We have dogs that can detect oncoming heart attacks, dogs that can detect seizures and even ones that can sense when a person is about to go into a diabetic coma. Dogs do it better because they have a better sense of smell than cats, which have a better sense than humans.

How does a dog detect seizures before they happen?

Probably picking up on body language. In the pre-seizure phases people may not be aware of it, but there are very subtle changes in the way they act. And dogs probably pick up on that.

What happens when there's one of these dogs and a person is about to have a seizure?

What they usually do is train the dog to either alert the person, so the person can lay down and not fall down, and then the dog often stays very close to the person. Most people who have a seizure will come out of it in a very short period of time. Or if the person normally doesn't come out of the seizure quickly, they can press a medic alert (bracelet) to get the help they need. Or the dog is trained to alert other family members. The biggest concern is that the person would be at risk of having damage done by falling down. They may suddenly have a seizure, go rigid, and just fall and hit their head on something. Generally speaking, for those people, if they can get down and lay down, then they go through the seizure but they don't have a major problem.

It's really quite fascinating.

It is. Animals have sensory capabilities that we can only begin to imagine.

Finally, you hear a lot about how animals can sense natural disasters. Is there any validity to this?

Right. Yes. Earthquakes are one. A study that was done at the School of Veterinary Medicine at the University of California, Davis looked at animals and showed reactions pre-earthquakes. What they found was, with certain types of earthquakes you'd get a response from animals, dogs and other types as well. Other types of earthquakes didn't produce a reaction. It depended on the animals perceiving some ground shaking shortly before the earthquake occurred. We also know that with huge tsunami in Southeast Asia a few years ago that the animals had all taken off for higher ground before it came ashore. So they were perceiving or feeling the shaking of the Earth where we couldn't.

Posted by Eric Berger at 07:17 AM in Animal kingdom | Comments (36)
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February 03, 2010

About that Klingon warship NASA supposedly saw

It always fascinates me to see what captures the public's attention, when it comes to science, and what does not.

On Tuesday NASA published a fairly routine news release on the Hubble Space Telescope imaging a suspected asteroid collision. Soon news release, and more specifically the image, were all over the Web (for example, Gizmodo and Digg).

To be sure, the image (see larger version) is cool:

The object, described colorfully by some Web sites as "mysterious" and "spaceship-shaped" is probably the result of an asteroid collision in our solar system's asteroid belt, as the X-shaped debris pattern just 90 million miles away suggests this. Truth be told, NASA doesn't know.

What's exciting about the image is not the fact that it resembles a Klingon Bird of Prey, but rather the fact that scientists have never observed a collision between asteroids in the asteroid belt, although they expect it happens quite often and is slowly grinding each asteroid into smaller bits.

There's no doubt this never would have made news but for the eye-catching image. I suppose this confirms many things about Americans, not the least of which is the power of pop culture as a gateway to engage people in science.

Anyway, congratulations to the scientists who captured the image, and to NASA for showcasing again that its repairs and upgrades to the Hubble last year were nigh flawless.

Posted by Eric Berger at 03:52 PM in Space | Comments (28)
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Icy outlook: From cold to colder next week

February started out cool and it's going to get colder, with a slight chance of a winter storm next week.

Some models this morning are hinting at another bout of freezing weather by the middle of next week as a cold Canadian air mass heads south. I asked meteorologist Fred Schmude, of ImpactWeather, to provide an outlook:

Right now it looks like the leading edge of a very cold Canadian air mass will build across the Houston area on Monday, February 8 and interact with an upper level disturbance embedded with the southern storm track bringing a good chance of precipitation.

Most of the precipitation on Monday is forecast to be in the form of rain; however, if the colder air arrives earlier and turns out to be deeper we could see rain change to a mixture sleet and light snow from north to south across northern parts of Southeast Texas, and maybe even the Houston area late Monday.

Thereafter, there is increasing evidence supporting the possibility on another chance of wintry precipitation by the middle part of next week centered on Wednesday and Thursday as shallow cold air interacts with another disturbance embedded within the southern storm track. If wintry precipitation occurs with this second disturbance, we think it will mainly be in the form of freezing rain or drizzle with mixed sleet.

Note that confidence in any winter weather next week is still on the low side considering the beginning of these potential winter events are still five days away and there still is a lot of uncertainty in how much cold air will be driven southward to the Gulf Coast next week. Even so, several ingredients are coming together which may result in some wintry precipitation over the Greater Houston area beginning early next week.

So it looks like, beginning Tuesday, the rest of next week will be at least 10 degrees cooler than normal, With more rain on the way or even a wintry mix. Of course as Fred notes, bear in mind the uncertainty inherent in forecasting a week ahead.

MDA EarthSat Next Wednesday looks coldest, with average temps in Texas 15 degrees below normal.

And to think, you complained about 90 degrees and humidity?

Posted by Eric Berger at 10:01 AM in Weather | Comments (52)
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February 02, 2010

How much broccoli do you have to press to make a cup of vegetable oil?

I realize you can google just about any question in the world to get an answer, but for some reason I'd never done that before with vegetable oil. What I have always wondered is, what exactly is vegetable oil?

Let's face it, broccoli and green beans are good for you, so they can't have much (if any) oil in them.

So it took me about 5 seconds to look it up. Vegetable oil ... drum roll, please ... comes from the fruits or seeds of plants like coconuts, corn, rapeseed, olives, palms, peanuts, soybeans, sunflowers and more. Hungry yet?

Rapeseed: from the flower field to the frying pan.

Anyway, here are the top five vegetable oils consumed by humans around the world. Here's the total from the past year, in million metric tons, from the USDA:

Palm: 44.3
Soybean: 37.5
Rapeseed: 21.4
Sunflower seed: 11.2
Palm kernel: 5.3

And here are the world's top consumers of vegetable oils. Again, for the past year, in million metric tons, from the USDA:

China: 26.1
European Union: 23.2
India: 15.4
United States: 11.6
Indonesia: 6.3

So there you have it. One of life's mysteries de-mystified. Now all that remains to be seen is who makes the first Katy or palm oil joke.

Posted by Eric Berger at 02:37 PM in Biology | Comments (29)
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