Baseball Opens Season Against New Mexico -- Preview and Open Thread
[Update: Horns open the season with a 6-2 victory. Taylor Jungmann pitched great, going 7 innings, 7 Ks and just 1 earned run. Game two against New Mexico begins tomorrow at 2 PM]
The Horns open up 2010 with a three game visit from the New Mexico Lobos (37-20 in 2009). The Lobos have lost the Friday starter and closer from a 2009 pitching staff that gave up five or more runs 28 times last season. To say the Horns have the pitching edge, therefore, would be something of an understatement. The big news coming out of Austin this week has been Augie's announcement that Austin Dicharry and not Cole Green will be the Sunday starter, at least to begin the season. There are a couple of ways to read this that won't really become clear until a few weeks into the season:
- A superior offseason has led Augie to see Dicharry as the better pitcher at this point in time.
- The move is an easy way at the beginning of the season to get Dicharry starting experience against relatively better competition than in midweek games.
- Augie's less than happy with some of Cole Green's struggles through much of last season and is willing to roll the dice on the youngster who had a 1.65 ERA in limited Big XII action last season over Green, knowing he can always go back to the surer Green later in the season.
Either way, the important thing to take from this change is the insane depth of Texas' pitching staff. That Texas has five guys who could be a Friday or Saturday starter at pretty much any other program in the conference is a testament to how strong this unit can be. Austin Dicharry and Cole Green have now become an important story to watch.
PROBABLE PITCHING MATCHUPS
Friday, Feb. 19, 2010 - 3 p.m. Central
Texas: RHP Taylor Jungmann (11-3, 2.00 ERA)
UNM: LHP Rudy Jaramillo (4-2, 5.73 ERA)
Saturday, Feb. 20, 2010 - 2 p.m. Central
Texas: RHP Brandon Workman (3-5, 3.48 ERA)
UNM: RHP Willy Kesler (0-1, 18.56 ERA)
Sunday, Feb. 21, 2010 - 1 p.m. Central
Texas: RHP Austin Dicharry (8-2, 2.28 ERA)
UNM: LHP Mike Lachapelle (Juco)
The Weather:
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Recruiting Spotlight: Darius White
Third in the series of the Crowning Six (Jordan Hicks, Jackson Jeffcoat).
Vitals
Name: Darius White
Position: Wide receiver
Height: 6-3
Weight: 205
Speed: 4.5 40-yard dash
High School: Fort Worth Dunbar
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Chet Moss Fulfills Lifelong Dream
Instant analysis -- A piggyback ride was all it took ($). When wide receiver Kwame Cavil put a young Chet Moss on his shoulders and took him into the offensive huddle during practice, Moss was sold -- from that moment, he wanted to become a Texas Longhorn. In the early evening before the first Texas Junior Day for the 2011 class, the Cedar Park linebacker received his Texas offer and committed on the spot, fulfilling his lifelong dream and ending the recruiting process virtually before it even started.
For Moss, the moment was surely a relief as well, as other teams no doubt backed off in their recruitment of the area product, knowing his affinity for the Longhorns. So even though Moss publicly maintained a relatively neutral stance and open mind, had he not received his Texas offer, it would have been difficult for him to regain the attention of schools that had basically given up on recruiting him.
It's the danger that a handful of Texas targets face every season, particularly if they make their feelings for Texas known publicly early in the process. Loving Texas football with all your heart can be a heart-breaking proposition for numerous Texas high school football players every year. But for Moss, everything worked out as planned and he will play fooball for the only university he's ever wanted to attend.
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Would Texas Join The Big 10 Conference?
My plan to hold off discussing conference realignment until the end of hoops season has been undermined by the tidal wave of stories flooding newspapers and blogs over the past couple weeks. I'm still going to wait to write up a long-form set of thoughts on the topic, but I started getting warmed up Tuesday night, joining the outstanding Iowa bloggers at Black Heart Gold Pants for their weekly podcast. Joining me as a guest was Bill Connelly from Rock M Nation; together, we tackled the topic of whether Missouri and/or Texas would leave to join the Big 12, and if so, under what circumstances.
What's really interesting about conference realignment -- both right now and in most every instance -- is that it is live, high-stakes game theory in action. Which school(s) hold the trump cards? Which conference(s)? How much information does each party have? When is the optimal time to make a first move? To wait and see? Should you signal/countersignal? Remain silent?
The answers are different each time the 'game' of conference realignment is played, and varies from school to school, conference to conference within each iteration of the game. Last time around, the ACC's grabbing of Miami, BC, and Virginia Tech was the key move that set all the other decisions into action: the Big East raided Conference USA to replenish its ranks; Conference USA picked up teams from both the MAC and WAC; and so on.
So we're in the early stages of another round of the 'game,' and this version is setting up to be one of the most interesting yet, for a few reason:
- Neither the Pac 10 nor Big 10 especially need to make a move, and it's possible that the optimal outcome for both Conferences would be not to expand. However, if one Conference sits still but the other expands, the one to move second could be greatly disadvantaged, depending on the first move made and the chain reactions it sets off. Alternatively, while we would assume that the school to move first would be picking up a school it wants, the first move could set off a chain reaction that makes available one or more even more desirable schools, benefiting the Conference moving second.
- There is the possibility this game of realignment will set off a long-lasting, far-reaching chain reaction. If the perception that this realignment is likely to result in a massive, far-reaching shake up begins to grow more widely, there potentially arrives a perception point at which outside players who would be otherwise inclined to sit out begin considering joining the game. Or making a preemptive move, even.
- Certainly the way this game looks like it's setting up to be played, the far, far and away most important piece of information (and potential prize) is the University of Texas. UT could sit still/let the Big 12 get raided and rebuild around itself, go to the Big 10, go to the Pac 10, or (no joke) venture off onto the Independent trail. It's not difficult to see the impact Texas has on this particular game set up. The most valuable information in the game will be knowing what Texas wants to do; accordingly, if UT is smart it will realize that (A) schools typically situated in a strong position within this game are working to leverage from two options (Stay or Go), or perhaps three (Stay or Go1 or Go2), and (B) Texas can treat as viable four different options (Stay or GoP10 or GoB10 or GoInd).
From such a position of strength, if Texas can relatively cleanly decide what it's preferred objective is (Wild Card: disgusting, self-defeating, cry-festival at the State Legislature), it should be able to move information in ways that make near-certain the moves unfold as Texas prefers. At this point, with ample time before any first domino might fall and multiple suitors coveting its membership, the best move for the University of Texas is no move. (With how much both the Pac 10 and Big 10 would benefit from adding Texas, UT should have the influence to intervene to stop either Conference from making a first move early in the game, should UT see such a move as unfriendly to achieving its preferred objective.)
I could fill 100 pages discussing the various players, scenarios, and strategies of this year's 'game', but I'll wrap this introduction for now and direct to you to the podcast for a full half hour of realignment talk, in which I discuss why Texas holds the power, the potential viability of Texas going it alone on TV, and finally, my belief that if Texas does in fact leave for one of the two, it would be to join the Pac 10.
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GA Safety Avery Walls Visits Austin
It's not that normal for an out-of-state prospect to visit campus during the week, but McDonough, Georgia safety Avery Walls is doing just that. A player who was only on the outskirts of the Texas recruiting radar is now squarely in the middle of it and it would be a major surprise if he left town without an offer.
Avery Walls 2009 Jr Season Full Highlights 3 (via JSTUNNA56)
It would be a major surprise for Walls not to receive an offer because his highlight film is just that impressive. In fact, a quick perusal of his offer list reveals a national prospect who is currently underappreciated given his obvious talents. There's every apparent reason for every major program in the country to offer him eventually and waiting isn't helping anything.
Unlike some other defensive backs Texas has taken in the last several classes like Eryon Barnett, Bryant Jackson, and Sheroid Evans, Walls doesn't have massive size for a safety at a little under six feet tall, but he's well built -- sturdy.
In terms of speed, he's not going to challenge Sheroid Evans in a foot race (few can, anywhere in the world), but he clearly plays fast in pads and perhaps just as importantly, appears to play instinctively. His listed 4.5 time in the 40 looks legitimate and, again, he looks like he plays faster than that because he reads and reacts so well.
When Walls does get to the ball, he brings some major force with him, showing a remarkable ability to uncoil -- this guy is a serious headhunter and he'll make some receivers get alligator arms in college going across the middle. His excellent tackling form means that he probably tackles as consistently well from down to down as his big hits on film would indicate. Think Aaron Williams rather than former Cowboy safety Roy Williams. These hits aren't for show, these hits are to stop the ballcarrier in his tracks. Past this point you will not advance. You know, actual football plays that don't endanger teammates as much they endanger as opponents.
Without getting a better look at him in coverage, it's tough to tell how well he can flip his hips and whether or not he has the recovery speed or change-of-direction ability to play cornerback, but that really doesn't even matter -- the kid is a safety all the way and has the markings of a true playmaker in college with his ability to finish interceptions and knock the ball loose with his vicious hits. Call him the Enforcer, call him the Playmaker, call him a helluva football player. He brings some Boom with him.
The verdict? Yes, please. The only question is how much he likes Texas and the preliminary indications are good. After all, he paid his own way to Austin. That's some pretty serious interest, isn't it? Texas is clearly interested in him, as Walls reports that the Longhorns told him they would "make a Junior Day" ($) around him when he could visit, which ended up being Wednesday. Publicly, Walls has maintained an open stance with all of the schools that will offer him, so he doesn't have any favorites, but Mack Brown and Texas may have made a big impression on him.
After all, Texas is Texas and when Mack Brown wants your sandwich, he gets your sandwich.
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Missouri Wears Down Texas 82-77
A solid final 10 minutes of the first half positioned the Longhorns to pick up what would have been a huge road win, but weak rebounding, depressing transition defense, and poor play from primary ball handlers sunk Texas in the second half. With the 82-77 loss, the 'Horns drop to 20-6 on the year, 6-5 in Big 12 play.
There were silver linings to the loss -- positives of the type that make it easy for me to believe Texas is capable of making a deep run in March. Depressingly, there's no way to escape seeing this as a very disappointing loss -- the letdowns of the type that make it hard to believe Texas is going to make a deep run in March.
On the bright side, we're starting to see more and more of the mature, directed version of Jordan Hamilton, and it's clear what an incredibly valuable offensive asset it is. Likewise, we saw stretches of play from the team that make clear we'd be capable of beating about anyone if we could pull it all together on a consistent basis. Not perfect basketball for 40 minutes -- no team can do that consistently -- but strong, smart basketball throughout would be enough to beat all but a few teams in the country.
Those would be legitimately important, encouraging points on which to focus... if the calendar read December. The problem, at this point, is that we're past the point where it's useful to focus on silver linings, and upon the point where the weaknesses you see are the weaknesses you should expect to saddle you when the post-season arrives.
And in that light, this loss was disappointing. If it were earlier in the year, or if Missouri had simply outclassed us with a dominant team and/or tremendous performance, there might be better cause to remain hopeful about where Texas might be in March. As it was, both the manner and timing of the loss have to be considered bad signs for the team's chances of achieving the high goals we've all hoped were in store for this season. Specifically:
- We lost another game because all of our primary ball handlers struggled in discouraging ways. Balbay contributed very little offensively, made plenty of mistakes and, most damningly, played tentatively. J'Covan Brown failed to build on his KU/NU performances to be a floor general with the ball in his hands, struggling with penetration, poor decisions, and inability to set up teammates. Avery Bradley had his moments, but is as yet incapable of performing with the consistency that we need given the limitations of Balbay/Mason and the continued immaturity of Brown. Jai Lucas didn't play, but safe to say that he would have struggled with Missouri's trapping and pressure defense even more than our bigger ball handlers did.
- Without primary ball handlers helping the effort, we've neutered our strengths on the interior with Damion James -- who's mostly playing well, but incapable of doing it all on his own for sustained stretches -- and Dexter Pittman, who's been an out-and-out liability as defenses have been able to sink into defending the paint with impunity.
- The mental mistakes are perhaps the most damning thing of all. We can and do talk about things we think Rick Barnes could do better, but at this point in the season, I think it's hard not to see this team as being beyond the help of mere tactical adjustment. We miss astounding numbers of free throws. Our transition defense belies a complete and total lack of sustained mental concentration. Our talented rebounders frequently stand and stare, literally appearing to succumb to blank minds for two seconds while the ball is in the air. Both Wangmene and Johnson defend the middle of a zone like their primary responsibility is to ensure no one hits a 15 footer in the semi-circle atop the key. We follow up good rotations on help defense with possessions in which we look like we're aliens plopped on the court with no clue that such a concept even exists. It's little things, and it's indicative of a mentally weak team. How do you fix that? With the practice time allotted NCAA teams, you don't.
- Add it all up and the overwhelming evidence is that these if these recurring problems were ever fixable, they certainly are unlikely to be now. The hyper-optimist in me will dutifully discuss in tomorrow's Texas Basketball Report what we'll need to see for this team to peak in March, but as we wrap up tonight, I won't try to sugarcoat what this loss is: another data point indicating that this Texas team is merely good. And unless it bucks the odds with 11th hour development, we'll have plenty of time to sit down together -- in all likelihood before the Sweet 16 gets underway -- to discuss why it never became great.
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Open Game Thread: Texas at Missouri
Keys To The Game
1. Limit turnovers. Our offense thrives on limiting turnovers and pounding the offensive glass, and while both are important, the former will be especially key against Missouri's pressing defense and willingness/desire to run. I think an up tempo game can suit us very well, but it all falls apart if we're sloppy with turnovers.
2. Premium transition defense. Premium transition defense perhaps comes at the expense of one of the two foundational blocks of our offensive success (offensive rebounding), but I think limiting Missouri buckets in transition is the more important of the two goals in this game. Of course, if we score ourselves, we can have the best of both worlds, but if we're not shooting well, I'm intently watching how well we play transition D. Both OU and Kansas just killed us in transition; neither was especially effective against our set defense.
3. Freshmen maturity. If what we saw against Nebraska shows up tonight, I love Texas' chances. But one game does not a season save. J'Covan needs to be the on-court general a Barnes offense needs to succeed. Hamilton needs to be a complementary player. AB needs to feed off the success of the first two to be that second big scorer Damion James needs to avoid doing it all himself.
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