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Jeff Benton

Trace Adams

By Al DeMarco GM - VegasAdvisors.com
Odds
updated 9:18 p.m. ET Sept. 21, 2009
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 'Dogs Bark in Week 2: 

In Week 1 of the NFL season, the favorites and underdogs couldn't get any separation at the betting window.

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That wasn't quite the case in Week 2 action on Sunday.

The dogs had their day, to be sure, going 9-6 against the spread (ATS). In fact, eight of them posted outright victories. And although the Jets weren't a heavy underdog, catching 3 points at home against the Patriots, their win might stand as one of the week's more noteworthy upsets.

Here's why: New York trailed 9-3 at halftime. That's a pretty dismal point total for the first half of your first home game of the year. It appeared new coach Rex Ryan had exhausted all his energy leaving voicemails for season ticket holders.

Then the unexpected happened. First, the Jets' defense totally put the clamps on the Patriots' offense, shutting out New England in the second half. Second, and perhaps most surprising, rookie QB Mark Sanchez outplayed veteran supermodel husband Tom Brady over the final 30 minutes. Simple as that. So the Jets pulled out the 16-9 straight-up (SU) victory, bagging the win and the cash.

And the big dogs got in on the fun, as well. The Bengals were getting 8 points at Green Bay, yet held the Pack to just three second-half points on the way to a 31-24 victory. The Texans were catching seven points at Tennessee, but after giving up 24 first-half points, Houston allowed one TD in the third quarter and shut out the Titans in the fourth to claim a 34-31 upset.

The Giants also crashed Jerry Jones' party at his glitzy new stadium, much to the chagrin of, well, nobody outside of Dallas. New York took a 33-31 SU win as a 3-point road pup. And the Bears, with interception-prone Jay Cutler seemingly settling down, knocked off the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers 17-14 as a 3-point home underdog thanks to Pittsburgh placekicker Jeff Reed's inability to hit two easy field goals.

The Raiders, Cardinals and Ravens also posted outright wins from the underdog role. In fact, the lone dog to cover but not win outright was the lowly Rams, who found themselves losing to the Redskins 9-7, but cashing as an overwhelming 9.5-point pup.

 Adding Up the NFL: 

The strongest betting trend in the NFL continued unabated Sunday, as SU winners went a dominating 14-1 ATS, with the aforementioned Redskins the lone SU winner failing to bag the cash. Coming off an 11-5 ATS effort in week one, SU winners are now 25-6 against the oddsmakers this season.

And if you count the SU winners' outlandish 56-5-4 ATS mark in preseason play, that runs the total to 81-11-4 ATS --- for a spread-covering clip of 88 percent!

FYI - Underdogs have a 17-14 ATS edge with two weeks of play nearly complete, and road teams are also 17-14 ATS after a 9-6 effort at the betting window Sunday.

 NFL Two-Minute Drill: 

Week 2 wraps up tonight in South Florida. How about a few noteworthy trends on the Colts-Dolphins tilt:

Indianapolis is 4-9-1 ATS as a favorite the past two seasons.

Indy is 1-5 ATS in the last six series showdowns.

The Colts are 2-0 as a Monday night road favorite dating back to the 1980 season, but the Dolphins are 8-3 ATS as a home dog under those same Monday lights in that period.

Miami is 13-35-1 ATS at home since 2003, failing to cover seven of nine at home last season. And the Dolphins have lost their home opener --- on the field and versus the oddsmakers --- each of the past three seasons.

Eight of Miami's last 10 home games have stayed under the posted total.

 College Football Fraud Five: 

In the third installment of our continuing series, we give you our Fraud Five (and then some), for the worst lines posted on Saturday's college football card:

1: BYU (-8.5) at home versus Florida State --- Take the BS out of BCS for BYU as its 18-game home winning streak ends early in a 54-28 blowout loss to the Seminoles, who barely escaped with a 19-9 win against Jacksonville State a week earlier.

2: Southern Cal (-19.5) at Washington --- Letdown after Ohio State? Second-strong QB starting? No excuses accepted after losing to a Huskies' squad that just snapped a 15-game SU losing streak a week earlier, as Washington prevails 16-13.

3: Baylor (-10.5) at home versus Connecticut --- You beat Wake Forest on the road, then fall 30-22 in your home opener to a U.Conn team starting its second-string quarterback?

4: Purdue (-12.5) at home versus Northern Ilinois --- After a two-point road loss at Oregon, the Boilermakers returned to West Lafayette --- where they welcome Notre Dame this Saturday --- and promptly fell behind 21-7 at halftime in an eventual 28-21 loss.

5: Maryland (-7) at home versus Middle Tennessee State --- Two meetings in two years; two straight-up losses for the Terps? When does the basketball season start in College Park?

And count these losers as meriting strong consideration for Fraud Five honors this week:

Vanderbilt (-9) at home versus Mississippi State --- What is Vandy doing laying 9 points at home against anyone in conference play? What are the Commodores doing losing outright to the Bulldogs, 15-3?

Arkansas (-2) at home versus Georgia --- The Hogs aren't ready for prime time as they blow a 21-10 first-quarter lead in falling to 0-4 lifetime in Fayetteville against the 'Dawgs, who bark big in a 52-41 rout.

Southern Miss (-14) at home versus Virginia --- The Golden Eagles need 13 unanswered points in the final quarter to rally for the 37-34 SU win against an 0-2 visitor that had lost to William & Mary in its opener and got blown out by TCU in its previous game.

Florida (-30) at home versus Tennessee --- If you're going to talk the talk, responding to your opponent's smack, at least back it up with something more convincing than a 23-13 victory in the Swamp. Think Steve Spurrier would have taken any prisoners in the old days? Remember what the old ballcoach used to say about Tennessee: You can't spell "Citrus Bowl" without U-T. With the Gators' talent, he would have backed up that comment in spades on Saturday.

  • Al DeMarco, General Manager of VegasAdvisors.com, the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago, and a regular guest on sports talk radio throughout the country, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry. Get his daily advice and betting strategies at  VegasAdvisors.com

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